YouGov National Pre and Post-Debate: Biden leads Warren 30% to 24% -> 23% to 22%

[Sorenroy]

Sample size of 1,522 likely voters, conducted June 27th to July 2nd. This is a somewhat unique poll in that it is being compared against another poll released today but conducted June 25th to June 26th of 1,402 likely voters.

Biden — 23% (-7%)
Warren — 22% (-2%)
Harris — 17% (+10%)
Sanders — 15% (-1%)
Buttigieg — 7% (±0)
O'Rourke — 2% (-1%)
Yang — 2% (±0)
Booker — 2% (±0)
Klobuchar — 1% (±0)
Inslee — 1% (±0)
Hickenlooper — 1% (±0)
Castro — 1% (±0)
Delaney — 1% (+1%)
Gabbard — 1% (±0)
Gillibrand — 0% (±0)
Bennet — 0% (±0)
de Blasio — 0% (±0)
Swalwell — 0% (±0)
Ryan — 0% (±0)
Bullock — 0% (±0)
Moulton — 0% (±0)
Sestak — 0% (±0)
Gravel — 0% (±0)
Messam — 0% (±0)
Williamson — 0% (±0)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/paloma/the-trailer/2019/07/02/the-trailer-an-exclusive-poll-on-how-the-debates-changed-the-primary/5d1a1e73a7a0a47d87c56f78

[SN2903]

Biden is tanking.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Warren & Harris will be the last two standing. I dread seeing them have to attack one another.

[TWTown]

I won't be surprised if a new poll is released that shows Biden in second or third place nationally at this rate.

[eric82oslo]

I won't be surprised if a new poll is released that shows Biden in second or third place nationally at this rate.

Yeah, doesn't sound far-fetched at all. He's already at third place with bookmakers:

1. Harris - 2.75
2. Warren - 4.5
3. Biden - 5
4. Buttigieg - 7
5. Sanders - 8

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

[History505]

Harris and Warren both in double digits now on RCP average.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So we got three polls today showing a Biden collapse. I really can't fathom a comeback...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The media hyped Biden up, when he announced,  he skipped the Town Hall when he dodged the sex abuse scandal. Another scandal surfaces, with segregation and he didnt debate well.

The Establishment pushed his candidacy, not the voters, who had Harris, Sanders, Beto and Warren to choose from. Biden is the DNC candidate not the voters by choice, that's why he will lose

[Rookie Yinzer]

The Establishment pushed his candidacy, not the voters, who had Harris, Sanders, Beto and Warren to choose from. Biden is the DNC candidate not the voters by choice, that's why he will lose

This. Despite the criticisms lobbed at her, Clinton was/is a stronger candidate than Biden. There was a legitimate constituency excited about her candidacy. You can't say that about Biden at all!

[CookieDamage]

The Establishment pushed his candidacy, not the voters, who had Harris, Sanders, Beto and Warren to choose from. Biden is the DNC candidate not the voters by choice, that's why he will lose

This. Despite the criticisms lobbed at her, Clinton was/is a stronger candidate than Biden. There was a legitimate constituency excited about her candidacy. You can't say that about Biden at all!

Yes, I remember Clinton destroying Biden in the early 2014/15 polls.

[S019]

Biden's lead is narrowing, but there is no consensus runner up

Will be interesting to see where this primary goes


Oh, and by the way, I fully expect Biden to recover from this

[Progressive Pessimist]

Warren & Harris will be the last two standing. I dread seeing them have to attack one another.

Even if they do, I don't think it will be as feisty as the 2016 primary. I fully expect whoever wins to have total, united support from the other candidate and their voters when it's all over. I'm (oddly) optimistic about that.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Warren & Harris will be the last two standing. I dread seeing them have to attack one another.

It's just setting things up for a ticket.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Warren & Harris will be the last two standing. I dread seeing them have to attack one another.

Even if they do, I don't think it will be as feisty as the 2016 primary. I fully expect whoever wins to have total, united support from the other candidate and their voters when it's all over. I'm (oddly) optimistic about that.

I vote on March 24. I will vote for whichever one is leading in pledged delegates if it's not particularly close. If it's a toss-up in delegates I'm lean Warren but would be ecstatic with either one.

[Tintrlvr]

Warren & Harris will be the last two standing. I dread seeing them have to attack one another.

Even if they do, I don't think it will be as feisty as the 2016 primary. I fully expect whoever wins to have total, united support from the other candidate and their voters when it's all over. I'm (oddly) optimistic about that.

It's a big relief after the acrimony of both 2008 and 2016 that it seems clear that this primary will end normally and not in bitter bickering (fingers crossed, I guess).

[SInNYC]

Warren & Harris will be the last two standing. I dread seeing them have to attack one another.

Even if they do, I don't think it will be as feisty as the 2016 primary. I fully expect whoever wins to have total, united support from the other candidate and their voters when it's all over. I'm (oddly) optimistic about that.

There is a circumstance under which it will be even feistier: Nobody gets close to 50% of pledged ballots, with some combination of Biden, Bernie, Warren, and Harris in legitimate contention. On the 2nd ballot superdelegates vote enmasse for one candidate giving him/her the win (right now, the establishment is for Biden and Harris.). That would get ugly really fast if the winner is not the leader in pledged delegates.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Warren & Harris will be the last two standing. I dread seeing them have to attack one another.

Even if they do, I don't think it will be as feisty as the 2016 primary. I fully expect whoever wins to have total, united support from the other candidate and their voters when it's all over. I'm (oddly) optimistic about that.

There is a circumstance under which it will be even feistier: Nobody gets close to 50% of pledged ballots, with some combination of Biden, Bernie, Warren, and Harris in legitimate contention. On the 2nd ballot superdelegates vote enmasse for one candidate giving him/her the win (right now, the establishment is for Biden and Harris.). That would get ugly really fast if the winner is not the leader in pledged delegates.

It's definitely possible, and I'm worried about it, but I was directly referring to the Harris-Warren scenario.