2004 vs 2012
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Author Topic: 2004 vs 2012  (Read 1082 times)
Andrew Yang 2024
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« on: June 30, 2019, 11:01:06 PM »
I will be starting a series of elections involving the primary candidates of two different parties for two different years, for example the first one will be Mitt Romney vs John Kerry. So 04 Kerry vs 12 Romney. Who would win?


Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan
John Kerry/John Edwards
What would the map be?
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #1 on: June 30, 2019, 11:28:06 PM »
Is John Kerry the incumbent President in this scenario?
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UWS
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« Reply #2 on: June 30, 2019, 11:53:19 PM »
Both nominees, Kerry and Romney, are from Massachusetts, have a fluency in French, both lost the election to an incumbent President, were both labeled as flip-floppers, both selected a running mate who failed to deliver his home state to their ticket. Pretty hard to say who would win.
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Andrew Yang 2024
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« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2019, 12:05:43 AM »
No. This would be in a setting where neither are the incumbent. This is just to see how they would do versus each other. I'm really excited for the next two. It's very interesting
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2019, 09:52:46 PM »
2004 or 2012 demographics? Which apportionment of electoral votes?

These are the states that both candidates lost (there are no states that they both won)...

Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Ohio
Nevada
New Mexico
Virginia

Romney did better in Florida and Virginia. Kerry did better in Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, and Ohio. They both lost Colorado by five points.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2019, 10:26:32 PM »
Kerry barely lost and got the EV into his favor, he only needed Ohio.

Romney lost by a bit and was hopeless to win the EV.
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Andrew Yang 2024
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« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2019, 03:38:27 PM »
Quote from: TheElectoralBoobyPrize on July 01, 2019, 09:52:46 PM
2004 or 2012 demographics? Which apportionment of electoral votes?

These are the states that both candidates lost (there are no states that they both won)...

Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Ohio
Nevada
New Mexico
Virginia

Romney did better in Florida and Virginia. Kerry did better in Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, and Ohio. They both lost Colorado by five points.
2012
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dw93
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« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2019, 08:12:53 PM »
Quote from: Let Dogs Survive on July 01, 2019, 10:26:32 PM
Kerry barely lost and got the EV into his favor, he only needed Ohio.

Romney lost by a bit and was hopeless to win the EV.

This. Kerry did better in an environment that was more favorable to the incumbent where Romney did an environment that, IMHO and despite voting Obama, was less favorable to the incumbent.
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Andrew Yang 2024
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« Reply #8 on: July 03, 2019, 06:47:23 PM »
So who would win?
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Pericles
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« Reply #9 on: July 03, 2019, 07:14:39 PM »
« Edited: July 08, 2019, 01:27:29 AM by Pericles »
Kerry probably wins as Romney has more of the out of touch vulture capitalist image on top of his flip-flopping.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2019, 02:40:31 AM »
Kerry would win but this would never happen
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2019, 02:50:08 AM »
Quote from: L.D. Smith on July 01, 2019, 10:26:32 PM
Kerry barely lost and got the EV into his favor, he only needed Ohio.

Romney lost by a bit and was hopeless to win the EV.


This is the map of Bush 2004 vs Obama 2012:




Bush state by state actually did better in 2004 than Obama did in 2012. Romney just did worse than Kerry
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2019, 04:18:19 AM »
Quote from: Old School Republican on October 07, 2019, 02:50:08 AM
Quote from: L.D. Smith on July 01, 2019, 10:26:32 PM
Kerry barely lost and got the EV into his favor, he only needed Ohio.

Romney lost by a bit and was hopeless to win the EV.


This is the map of Bush 2004 vs Obama 2012:




Bush state by state actually did better in 2004 than Obama did in 2012. Romney just did worse than Kerry

Never noticed that
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