Top five state parties?
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  Top five state parties?
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UncleSam
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« on: June 30, 2019, 11:13:01 AM »

On both sides

GOP:
1. FL (duh)
2. OH (they blew the 2018 senate race but outside of that have won practically every race under the sun)
3. WI (incredibly effective given the tilt of the state)
4. NH (they’ve not done well at the federal level but they do great at the state level for how liberal the state is)
5. IA (they lost a couple of house races but in general have dominated this state since 2010, after Obama won it by double digits in 2008).

Dems:
1. NV (total dominance of a state the GOP should intheory be competitive in)
2. MN (see 1. - just win after win by double digits in tough races, including holding on to seats in the rural areas they shouldn’t have a chance at winning typically)
3. VA (Dems did a great job of holding the senate and governor races here all the way back to 2006)
4. CO (again, Dems have dominated this state when it isn’t really all that liberal - great job at finding solid candidates for every major race lately)
5. PA (yes Hillary lost, but really that was only surprising because Dems have held everything here for so long - the state itself is quite competitive but Dems have won the lion’s share of important races. The loss to Fitzgerald was a bit of a black mark on the party though).

What are your top fives?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: June 30, 2019, 11:19:29 AM »

I like the Virginia Democrats (aside from Northam and Fairbox of course). They're not populist, moderate to liberal establishment Democrats. Also the New York Democratic Party led by Andrew Cuomo.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #2 on: July 03, 2019, 01:29:16 PM »
« Edited: July 03, 2019, 05:31:29 PM by Epaminondas »

No love for California Dems, who essentially hunted CA Gop to extinction?


Agree with:

FL Gop, NH Gop, NV Dem

CO Dems: the most remarkable. After Bush won again in 2004, it was unthinkable in 2005 that under 15 years the GOP would lose everything (outside of soon-to-be-BTFO Gardner).

VA Dems: just general assembly to go and power will have switched fom complete GOP control to complete Dem in 14 years.

PA Dems: Toomey reelection was even more shocking than Clinton. Yet the State Senate hasn't been outright Dem since Carter. Gerrymandering to blame?

Disagree with OH Gop and WI Gop, who owe their entire fortunes to shameless gerrymandering and the Clinton candidacy. That's not skill, that's skulduggery.


WA Gop: resisted damn well until the last election, and still held the Senate until 2017 without gerrymandering.
AZ Dem: withholding judgement now, but the floodgates may burst in 2020. That would make it the most unexpected state flip since the Rust belt in 2010.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2019, 01:34:34 PM »

No love for California Dems, who essentially hunted CA Gop to extinction?


Agree with:

FL Gop, NH Gop, NV Dem

CO Dems: the most remarkable. After Bush won in 2004, it would have been unthinkable in 2005 that under 15 years the GOP would lose everything (outside of soon-to-be-BTFO Gardner).

VA Dems: just general assembly to go and power will have switched fom complete GOP control to complete Dem in 14 years.

PA Dems: Toomey reelection was even more shocking than Clinton. Yet the State Senate hasn't been outright Dem since Carter. Gerrymandering to blame?

Disagree with OH Gop and WI Gop, who owe their entire fortunes to shameless gerrymandering and the Clinton candidacy. That's not skill, that's skulduggery.


WA Gop: resisted damn well until the last election, and still held the Senate until 2017 without gerrymandering.
AZ Dem: withholding judgement now, but the floodgates may burst in 2020. That would make it the most unexpected state flip since the Rust belt in 2010.

They shelved a golden opportunity, propped up Feinstein for too long, failed to completely throw her under the bus in 2018 in a failure as embarrassing as Lieberman winning 2006. They've done nothing to put in an oil severance tax...something even Sarah Palin could roll with.

And as for the GOP, they did themselves in. Arnie was their last real shot and he blew it.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #4 on: July 03, 2019, 03:09:01 PM »

CA Dems have done quite well but it’s a bit less impressive to dominate a state you hold a huge advantage in than it is to dominate a reasonably close state imo
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Duke of York
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« Reply #5 on: July 03, 2019, 04:51:20 PM »

The Connecticut Democrats belong in the top five. They successfully held every statewide office in two republican wave years and held on despite the unpopularity of the  retiring incumbent and came back from their loses in the legislatures to return to near 2008 numbers.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: July 03, 2019, 07:24:16 PM »

Surprised no one has mentioned the MDP yet. I don’t see how MT Democrats are less competent than NV Democrats.
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free my dawg
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« Reply #7 on: July 03, 2019, 08:05:35 PM »
« Edited: July 10, 2019, 01:05:00 AM by Mayor Steve Pearce »

4. NH (they’ve not done well at the federal level but they do great at the state level for how liberal the state is)

I'd have to disagree with this. Their major success has been benefiting from waves and their strongest candidate in Chris Sununu, not their party apparatus as a whole. You can't tell me a party that couldn't find better than Frank Guinta in 2014 was a successful party. Unlike Shea-Porter, who was the victim of various waves, he was a horrid, corrupt candidate who lied about his investigation.

They've also been in a civil war of sorts between the conservative wing and the establishment wing - the former of which couldn't elect their speaker because the establishment allied with Democrats and made their own guy Speaker. Sununu is very good at hiding that he's catering to them (see: his signing of O'Brien's goal to suppress the liberal student vote).

Kuster was also very beatable during the 2016 Trump wave - I'd actually rank them as one of the worst state parties because of how they mismanaged the federal level. Again - it's somewhat hard to pick because the NHGOP's bench is so weak here, but someone like Marilinda Garcia could have won with the right national attention.

Their success at the state level has been due to waves, gerrymandering (due to a wave), and the structure of our State House. Not only is it difficult to fund a candidate for a House of 400 representatives, but there's also a provision guaranteeing towns near the ideal population-per-district their own representation. Since the ideal population for an NH House district is about 3,000, and smaller towns are increasingly trending GOP, the trends for the State House provide an inherently Republican-trending map.
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« Reply #8 on: July 04, 2019, 07:55:13 AM »

GOP:
1. Florida ofc
2. Ohio
3. Maryland (they control the governorship and gained State Senate seats in 2018 in an inhospitable climate and state)
4. Washington
5. Texas

Democrats:
1. Minnesota
2. Nevada
3. Montana
4. Connecticut
5. West Virginia (for still holding on even as the state has drifted away from them)
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #9 on: July 04, 2019, 08:28:46 AM »

FL Dems are definitely the best organized state party with a true track record of success. It ain't close, folks.
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andjey
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« Reply #10 on: July 08, 2019, 02:14:05 PM »

GOP:
1. Florida
2. Ohio
3. New Hampshire
4. Iowa
5. Washington

DEM:
1. Montana
2. Nevada
3. Minnesota
4. Virginia
5. West Virginia
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #11 on: July 08, 2019, 03:18:28 PM »

GOP

1. Florida
2. Ohio
3. Iowa
4. Texas
5. New Hampshire

Dems

1. Minnesota
2. Nevada
3. Montana
4. Arizona
5. Pennsylvania
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« Reply #12 on: July 08, 2019, 05:15:44 PM »

GOP:
1. Florida
2. Ohio
3. New Hampshire
4. Texas
5. Wisconsin

Dems:

1. Virginia
2. Minnesota
3. Montana
4. Nevada
5. Colorado

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lfromnj
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« Reply #13 on: July 08, 2019, 07:18:59 PM »

GOP:
1. Florida
2. Ohio
3. New Hampshire
4. Texas
5. Wisconsin

Dems:

1. Virginia
2. Minnesota
3. Montana
4. Nevada
5. Colorado



lol wat? the NH gop is a dead meme outside of Chris Sununu.


Virginia Dems aren't even that competent tbh.

Nevada dems are great though.
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Person Man
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« Reply #14 on: July 09, 2019, 07:50:51 AM »

Although in a lot of cases you just have to ask yourself "what in God's name are the other guys doing?" Are they literally just folks from the local PTA who get together every four years to decide which one of them will "run"?
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UncleSam
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« Reply #15 on: July 09, 2019, 10:43:52 AM »

Follow up: which state has the most competent combination of state parties? In other words, if you were to line up 1-50 the GOP and Dem state parties, which state would have the lowest total when adding the ranks of the GOP and Dem parties?

I think it would be CT honestly. The GOP there seems pretty competent in terms of nominating good candidates but keeps getting stymied by the effective CT Dem party and the overall lean of the state.
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Ilhan Apologist
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« Reply #16 on: July 09, 2019, 01:37:24 PM »

Why has nobody mentioned the Alaska Dems?
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #17 on: July 09, 2019, 01:47:18 PM »

GOP:
1. Florida
2. Ohio
3. New Hampshire
4. Texas
5. Wisconsin

Dems:

1. Virginia
2. Minnesota
3. Montana
4. Nevada
5. Colorado



lol wat? the NH gop is a dead meme outside of Chris Sununu.


Virginia Dems aren't even that competent tbh.

Nevada dems are great though.

That and AZ Dems are more deserving of being on that list than CO Dems. CO Dems fared pretty poorly downballot in the Obama era outside of Gov races (lost all row offices in 2010 and 2014, lost the Senate race in 2014, flopped again and again in CO-06, and lost the legislature). AZ Dems did pretty good for being in a more hostile state
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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #18 on: July 14, 2019, 06:23:16 PM »

GOP
1. Florida- they've maintained unified control of government for alot of time despite it's fairly even partisan split. Also they got DeSantis and Scott elected despite a bad year for Republicans nationally
2. Ohio- Turned the state from purple to Republican-leaning
3. Wisconsin- They ruined the state, but they rammed through their agenda while they could.
4. Michigan- See Wisconsin
5. Texas- it's the one big state the Republicans seem to consistently win aside from Florida

Democrats
1. California- they took the state of Reagan and stomped the GOP into near extinction.
2. Minnesota- they won every statewide office in 2010 and 2014 and got Keith Ellison elected statewide.
3. Montana- It's a really red rural state but they have two of the big three offices.
4. Virginia- They turned a solid red state blue
5. Oregon- They've had unified control of government there for a while now
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lfromnj
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« Reply #19 on: July 14, 2019, 07:31:36 PM »

Why do VA Democrats deserve credit?

All that happened is they got lucky with natural trends.

They lost a gerrymandered state senate map for them along with only having 33 house seats until 2017 and even then only 49/50 in 2018/2019 despite the fact Clinton won 51 seats and national house democrats outperformed Clinton.
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henster
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« Reply #20 on: July 14, 2019, 07:50:35 PM »

Why do VA Democrats deserve credit?

All that happened is they got lucky with natural trends.

They lost a gerrymandered state senate map for them along with only having 33 house seats until 2017 and even then only 49/50 in 2018/2019 despite the fact Clinton won 51 seats and national house democrats outperformed Clinton.

Honestly I wouldn't give state parties much credit, they really just benefit from state trends more than anything else. Besides GOTV what else are state parties really super effective? It's not like the FL GOP handpicked Rick Scott initially many times they just happen to get decent candidates thru primaries.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #21 on: July 15, 2019, 11:55:04 AM »

Why do VA Democrats deserve credit?

All that happened is they got lucky with natural trends.

They lost a gerrymandered state senate map for them along with only having 33 house seats until 2017 and even then only 49/50 in 2018/2019 despite the fact Clinton won 51 seats and national house democrats outperformed Clinton.

Honestly I wouldn't give state parties much credit, they really just benefit from state trends more than anything else. Besides GOTV what else are state parties really super effective? It's not like the FL GOP handpicked Rick Scott initially many times they just happen to get decent candidates thru primaries.

Again Id actually give Florida GOP and the MN Dems some serious credit.  The only thing impressive from VA democrats is winning statewide in 2013 but that was after a major shutdown by Republicans.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #22 on: July 16, 2019, 09:13:01 AM »

I think its important to make the distinction between a state party that works hard to get their party into office and is able to swing states(FL-GOP) and a state party that was handed their power on a silver platter without having to really lift a finger(VA-DEM).

Anyway, my ranking would be:

GOP
1. FL-GOP: An obvious choice. Its a nearly evenly split state and yet these guys have held near domination of the state's politics.
2. OH-GOP: Even before the Trump trend, the OH-GOP has been able to hold onto the governorship and the state legislature except for a few small instances(2006).
3. MA-GOP: Im surprised this one doesnt get attention. Their ability to consistently win the governorship for the past 30 years with only one D interruption(again, in 2006) is amazing considering the state's heavy Democratic bent.
4. WI-GOP: While not very successful presidentially, the GOP have held a grip on state politics for a long, long, long time. Though a lot of credit should be given to the governors, the state party has become a titan in turning out their base of WOW and the Northern Rurals.
5. WA-GOP: They know the state well. Even though its as Solid D as a state can be, the GOP have always been strong downballot, even forcing divided government until only recently. Not only that, but the governorship election is always competitive even though its in Solid D territory during presidential years.

DEM

1. MN-DFL: These guys are monsters in the state. They consistently win statewide by double digits and are able to hold really precarious seats even in R waves. Not only that, but even as MN has gotten closer and closer, the DFL has won by even larger margins. They even got Ellison through, which is astounding to say the least due to his scandal.
2. MT-DEM: Im pretty sure the state party sold its soul to the devil, because I have no idea how they can be so damn effective. Not only have they held a death grip on the governorship even as the state goes R+20, they've also held both senate seats in the past and have been rather competitive in the state chamber. Only the At Large House Seat evades them, and they've gotten close.
3. NV-DEM: The credit goes more towards Harry Reid than anyone else. The state has practically become a Dem Machine, and even though the Rs should be more competitive here, they aren't.
4. CT-DEM: The state is always in trouble of falling into GOP hands at all state levels thanks to D incompetence. But the state party is always there to save the day. They saved Ned, they saved the legislature, they saved the CT-DEMs from themselves.
5. CA-DEM: While much of the State Dem's power in the state comes from natural trends, they put in a lot of effort to win over voters and build a machine in the state. The fact that the GOP are barely even around anymore and have lost even R-friendly seats is both a statement to California's changing demographics/leanings and the CA-DEMs ability to organize.
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R.P. McM
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« Reply #23 on: July 16, 2019, 01:36:02 PM »

Why do VA Democrats deserve credit?

All that happened is they got lucky with natural trends.

They lost a gerrymandered state senate map for them along with only having 33 house seats until 2017 and even then only 49/50 in 2018/2019 despite the fact Clinton won 51 seats and national house democrats outperformed Clinton.

Honestly I wouldn't give state parties much credit, they really just benefit from state trends more than anything else.

I think the objective is to identify state parties that aren't simply coasting off of demographic tailwinds.

Quote
Besides GOTV what else are state parties really super effective? It's not like the FL GOP handpicked Rick Scott initially many times they just happen to get decent candidates thru primaries.

Getting decent candidates through primaries seems like a pretty important measure of party effectiveness. Probably better to view state parties as collections of salaried officers and activists and primary voters.
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #24 on: July 19, 2019, 04:12:22 PM »


While the Alaska Dems haven’t been too bad, a lot of the left’s success is due to independents and moderate Republicans. Here’s a wonderful article that I always love to share when talking about Alaska’s coalitions.

How to Turn a Red State Purple (Democrats Not Required)
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