ME-Gravis: Collins (R-inc) 52%, Gideon (D) 36%
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  ME-Gravis: Collins (R-inc) 52%, Gideon (D) 36%
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Author Topic: ME-Gravis: Collins (R-inc) 52%, Gideon (D) 36%  (Read 2865 times)
Gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« on: June 28, 2019, 10:32:45 AM »

http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Maine-Jun-26-2019.pdf

Head-to-head:
Collins (R-inc) 52%
Gideon (D) 36%

First choice:
Collins (R-inc) 44%
Gideon (D) 30%
Uncertain 19%
Vanhelsing (I) 7%

Second choice:
Uncertain 32%
Collins (R-inc) 26%
Vanhelsing (I) 26%
Gideon (D) 16%
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mds32
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« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2019, 10:35:03 AM »

Collins will be voted out in a wave. If Trump is within 8 points in Maine Collins will win.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2019, 01:32:55 PM »

I find it interesting how Collins is only approved of 6 points more than Trump. Really shows how her crossover appeal is dwindling by the day.
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2019, 01:51:42 PM »

I find it interesting how Collins is only approved of 6 points more than Trump. Really shows how her crossover appeal is dwindling by the day.

This is not interesting. This is literally the case in every moderately competitive election. Unless you're Charlie Baker, crossover appeal is contingent on not running for office.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2019, 01:58:46 PM »

I find it interesting how Collins is only approved of 6 points more than Trump. Really shows how her crossover appeal is dwindling by the day.

This is not interesting. This is literally the case in every moderately competitive election. Unless you're Charlie Baker, crossover appeal is contingent on not running for office.
I wouldnít say it isnít interesting, itís just not novel information. Weíve seen it in play in most federal elections of the Trump era.
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S019
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« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2019, 02:51:31 PM »

>GraviS


But doesn't their polling usually favor Democrats


I stand by my prediction of Collins by 8-12
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #6 on: June 28, 2019, 03:18:50 PM »

Susanís popularity keeps slipping and the polls keep getting closer, only leading now 52-36 against a crap candidate, this would be much better if one of our A listerís ran, I expect Collins to pull a Manchin in the end and win by a narrow margin, as a result of us picking Portland coastal elitist bureaucrat  D+ tier candidate Gideon.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: June 28, 2019, 06:09:30 PM »

I thought Ernst was safe, it appears both are safe for now. Down to AL, AZ, CO, GA and NC
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S019
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« Reply #8 on: June 28, 2019, 07:45:05 PM »

I thought Ernst was safe, it appears both are safe for now. Down to AL, AZ, CO, GA and NC

Jones is doomed, your path is -AL, +CO, AZ, NC, GA, +WH, you're not winning the Senate without the WH
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #9 on: June 28, 2019, 11:25:27 PM »

I thought Ernst was safe, it appears both are safe for now. Down to AL, AZ, CO, GA and NC

Jones is doomed, your path is -AL, +CO, AZ, NC, GA, +WH, you're not winning the Senate without the WH

We just arenít winning the senate dude, especially with so many A listers not in.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #10 on: June 28, 2019, 11:44:12 PM »

I thought Ernst was safe, it appears both are safe for now. Down to AL, AZ, CO, GA and NC

Jones is doomed, your path is -AL, +CO, AZ, NC, GA, +WH, you're not winning the Senate without the WH

We just arenít winning the senate dude, especially with so many A listers not in.

-AL, +CO, +AZ, +NC, +GA, +WH is possible. The only hard parts will be NC and GA.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #11 on: June 29, 2019, 12:10:12 AM »
« Edited: June 29, 2019, 12:14:29 AM by smoltchanov »

I find it interesting how Collins is only approved of 6 points more than Trump. Really shows how her crossover appeal is dwindling by the day.

Polarization forces Democratic candidates to move left, and Republican - right (otherwise - you lose primary). As a result - other races move closer to Presidential one, and become much more predictable (and boring), then before.. I expect this race to tighten up, as campaign progresses, but Collins preserving enough crossover appeal for high-single digit victory...
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: June 30, 2019, 06:38:10 PM »

Collins is moderate enough to work within GOP majority,  unfortunately for Dems who had high hopes for this race
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Person Man
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« Reply #13 on: July 01, 2019, 08:26:53 AM »

Things will start to change if it becomes more and more apparent that Trump is going to lose. Absent that, nothing much will change unless it becomes apparent that the majority of the country is buying into the populist altright agenda. Buying that, this will be another ďbenefit of the doubtĒ election like 04 or 12.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #14 on: July 01, 2019, 05:25:29 PM »

I think Democratic chances are overrated here and in IA but seriously underrated in TX, GA, NC, and AZ.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: July 01, 2019, 05:44:24 PM »

I think Democratic chances are overrated here and in IA but seriously underrated in TX, GA, NC, and AZ.

Dems will win AZ, CO and KS with Grissom and Kelly, all Dems need is NC, IA, GA, or ME if they lose AL
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #16 on: July 14, 2019, 09:39:16 AM »

I think Democratic chances are overrated here and in IA but seriously underrated in TX, GA, NC, and AZ.

Definitely not "underrated" in NC and AZ. Expect Dems to go all in on those races. Especially Arizona.

GA just feels like fool's gold at this point. It just isn't there yet.

TX is even further out than GA.
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We Live in Black and White
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« Reply #17 on: July 14, 2019, 01:43:27 PM »

The gap is closing by the day.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: July 14, 2019, 01:45:55 PM »

.

Collins will end up like Snowe, retired
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Figueira
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« Reply #19 on: July 14, 2019, 10:08:56 PM »

I thought Ernst was safe, it appears both are safe for now. Down to AL, AZ, CO, GA and NC

Jones is doomed, your path is -AL, +CO, AZ, NC, GA, +WH, you're not winning the Senate without the WH

We just arenít winning the senate dude, especially with so many A listers not in.

A-listers are overrated. The Senate is tricky, but not impossible.
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