MO Gov Galloway in

[Frenchrepublican]

She will get 45% minimum.

I know she defeated a literal crazy person but now that she won her election she has more good will.

Galloway seems lucky as a rule. I would not be shocked if that luck continues

She will get 45% minimum at the best.

[Frenchrepublican]

She's the Democrats' best option for sure, but it's hard to imagine a winning path.

Trump can underperform in MO, and Dems wont win the state, but 2012, Romney underperformed in MO, allowing McCaskill to win. Trump isnt gonna win MO by double digits, by a 3-5 point win, by Trump, can allow the Gov race to be close. The NC gov race is 3-4 points now, too

Lol Trump won Missouri by 20 points in 2016 and likely will again even if he loses

Yeah, it's really hard to see why democrats would suddenly rebound in MO

[Frenchrepublican]

She will get 45% minimum.

I know she defeated a literal crazy person but now that she won her election she has more good will.

Galloway seems lucky as a rule. I would not be shocked if that luck continues

She will get 45% minimum at the best.

I am studying all Midwestern suburban areas very thoroughly.  This is something god told to me do and she will earn between 45 and 47% of the vote.

And this number is based on what ? McCaskill who spent 40 millions dollars barely won 45% of the vote last year. And she was an incumbent.

Yeah, some wealthy, inner suburbs around St Louis are trending D but you have then to take into account Jefferson County where democrats have collapsed over the past few years, St Charles Co is not becoming more D friendly either. Anyway even if Galloway can make some gains in college educated suburbs, it won't be enough because she will get crushed in rural areas and smaller metro areas like Springfield

She will be lucky to win 43% of the vote

[Frenchrepublican]

She will get 45% minimum.

I know she defeated a literal crazy person but now that she won her election she has more good will.

Galloway seems lucky as a rule. I would not be shocked if that luck continues

She will get 45% minimum at the best.

I am studying all Midwestern suburban areas very thoroughly.  This is something god told to me do and she will earn between 45 and 47% of the vote.

And this number is based on what ? McCaskill who spent 40 millions dollars barely won 45% of the vote last year. And she was an incumbent.

Yeah, some wealthy, inner suburbs around St Louis are trending D but you have then to take into account Jefferson County where democrats have collapsed over the past few years, St Charles Co is not becoming more D friendly either. Anyway even if Galloway can make some gains in college educated suburbs, it won't be enough because she will get crushed in rural areas and smaller metro areas like Springfield

She will be lucky to win 43% of the vote

Yes, McCaskill was such a popular incumbent as evidenced by this:



And you are absolutely right that in this day and age a Democrat can not win Greene County as evidenced by this



Galloway probably wont win but Parson isn't incredibly well known either. It will be competitive-ish but Parson probably wins 51 to 47

Parson is a scandal free, fairly popular governor, he will be reelected by a wide margin. He will also be helped by the fact that Trump will carry MO by 15 to 20. Concerning Galloway, yeah she won Greene county against a total unknown dude, against a popular republican governor she will get crushed there.

Now if you want to believe that Parson is vulnerable it your own problem, believe what you want.

But MO is now a blood red state, no matter what you think, just ask Air Claire

[Frenchrepublican]

Missouri has swung hard R in the age of Trump, just like VA has swung hard D. It’s just no where near competitive any longer.

Yeah, to be more precise, it was already clear in 2012 when Obama lost the state by a wide margin that MO was becoming a red state.

But some democratic hacks love to pretend that every state will trend D

[Frenchrepublican]

According to Gallup Trump is at 52/43 in Missouri (Morning Consult has him at 51/45, essentially the same due to margin of error). Very possible he only does 2-3 points better than Hawley in 2020. The right Dem (be it Galloway or Sifton, who also looks like a good candidate) could run just enough ahead of the presidential nominee to win.

Gallup has Trump at -12 nationwide, so if he is at 52/43 in MO it means that a he is doing 21 points better in MO than in the rest of the county. If Trump is winning MO by only six points, then he is losing the PV by 15

And no, Parson is not losing either

[Frenchrepublican]

I mean yeah, Parson will probably win, but I don’t buy that Republicans are guaranteed to win every statewide/Senate race in MO from now on after Democrats came within three points of winning a Senate race in 2016 and actually won a statewide race by 6 points in 2018. McCaskill did lose, but she’s always been an unpopular Senator and still did 12 points better than Clinton. Missouri is still way more Democratic-friendly downballot than Indiana.

From what I’ve heard from friends in Missouri, Parsons is pretty well-regarded though and don’t think a stronger than average Republican incumbent is gonna lose statewide in Missouri in 2020.  Democrats could obviously do a lot worse than Scott Sifton for MO AG (but I think he’s better off waiting to see what Wagner’s district looks like after redistricting and whether he lives in it, assuming she survives 2020), plus it wouldn’t be the worst idea to run a wave insurance candidate for Treasurer, but both of those row offices would still start out as Likely R.

Also, unlike in 2018, females and blacks will come out more in the St Louis and KC suburbs.  This is a wave insurance election, but Kamala and Beto can energize independents.  Also, Parsons signed a very anti-abortion bill that will bring Dems home

Insinuating Kamala Harris would win MO or come close

And I doubt that abortion is a winning issue there

[Frenchrepublican]

She will do around what McCaskill did.

She will likely do worse

1. 2020 likely won’t be a D+9 year
2. Contrary to McCaskill, Galloway won’t have $40M to spend
3. Parson is a popular incumbent
4. Running on abortion is not a winning issue in MO
5. Trump will likely carry this state by +15 and will provide coattails to other conservative candidates

[Frenchrepublican]

Best possible recruit we could get probably. Still loses by around what Koster lost by, though keeping it that close will not come much from narrowing rurals like Koster did but rather a relatively uniform swing.

Lol. No

It will be very likely a double digits loss for her.

If the election was now, I would say
Parson : 56%
Galloway : 42%

[Frenchrepublican]

Best possible recruit we could get probably. Still loses by around what Koster lost by, though keeping it that close will not come much from narrowing rurals like Koster did but rather a relatively uniform swing.

Lol. No

It will be very likely a double digits loss for her.

Remember that she still managed to win by 6  despite Claire losing by 6, an impressive feat in thesecpartisan times.

Sure, but have you seen who was her opponent ? Parson is a popular incumbent and MO is a conservative state, I don’t really see how he can be vulnerable unless some scandals emerge

[Frenchrepublican]

She will do around what McCaskill did.

She will likely do worse

1. 2020 likely won’t be a D+9 year
2. Contrary to McCaskill, Galloway won’t have $40M to spend
3. Parson is a popular incumbent
4. Running on abortion is not a winning issue in MO
5. Trump will likely carry this state by +15 and will provide coattails to other conservative candidates

It is dumb to campaign solely on abortion in  Missouri but even Mississippi rejected a life at conception amendment, Considering Missouri is more liberal than MS going against hardcore abortion bans can work.

It worked pretty well for Wendy Davis....

[Frenchrepublican]

Remember that she still managed to win by 6  despite Claire losing by 6, an impressive feat in thesecpartisan times.

Sure, but have you seen who was her opponent ? Parson is a popular incumbent and MO is a conservative state, I don’t really see how he can be vulnerable unless some scandals emerge

Do you think anyone in Missouri did?

What I know is that Parson is a far, far better candidate than McDowell who would make Sarah Palin look like a sane person, which is pretty difficult to be honest

[Frenchrepublican]

She will do around what McCaskill did.

She will likely do worse

1. 2020 likely won’t be a D+9 year
2. Contrary to McCaskill, Galloway won’t have $40M to spend
3. Parson is a popular incumbent
4. Running on abortion is not a winning issue in MO
5. Trump will likely carry this state by +15 and will provide coattails to other conservative candidates

It is dumb to campaign solely on abortion in  Missouri but even Mississippi rejected a life at conception amendment, Considering Missouri is more liberal than MS going against hardcore abortion bans can work.

It worked pretty well for Wendy Davis....

Are we talking about the same Missouri that re-elected Claire McCaskill by 16% because of her oponent’s extreme stance on abortion?

Defending rapists =/= Being pro life

[Frenchrepublican]

It will be interesting to see which county has a largest drop from Trump % of vote to Parson % of vote.

Maybe Greene? Maybe Platte?

Jefferson county, probably. It has a lot of socially conservative Democrats who could still vote D outside of the presidential race.

But it won’t really matter, Galloway is heading for a +15 points defeat anyway.

[Frenchrepublican]

She will do around what McCaskill did.

She will likely do worse

1. 2020 likely won’t be a D+9 year
2. Contrary to McCaskill, Galloway won’t have $40M to spend
3. Parson is a popular incumbent
4. Running on abortion is not a winning issue in MO
5. Trump will likely carry this state by +15 and will provide coattails to other conservative candidates

It is dumb to campaign solely on abortion in  Missouri but even Mississippi rejected a life at conception amendment, Considering Missouri is more liberal than MS going against hardcore abortion bans can work.

It worked pretty well for Wendy Davis....

Are we talking about the same Missouri that re-elected Claire McCaskill by 16% because of her oponent’s extreme stance on abortion?

The logical conclusion of Todd Akins comments is that

"anyone on trial for rape in criminal court should automatically be acquitted if it can be determined that the sexual intercourse resulted in a pregnancy".

That is far away from even the usual conservative position on the issue which is that

"the rapists crimes are their own and its unfair to punish the unborn child too for said crimes".

Anyways, Tilt D, assuming a recession occurs.

What are you smoking ?