MO Gov Galloway in

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www-kmov-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.kmov.com/news/top-democrat-auditor-galloway-plans-to-run-for-governor/article_7afb57c0-2103-5bc0-a95d-fecf2f41bcd4.amp.html?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQA#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s

Galloway challenges Parsons

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She will get 45% minimum.

I know she defeated a literal crazy person but now that she won her election she has more good will.

Galloway seems lucky as a rule. I would not be shocked if that luck continues

Claire McCaskill was lucky too, until she wasn't.

This is a Presidential year, McCaskill won in 2012, in a presidential year, MO does vote GOP in presidential years, but Trump might only win MO by 6, not 11

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She's the Democrats' best option for sure, but it's hard to imagine a winning path.

Trump can underperform in MO, and Dems wont win the state, but 2012, Romney underperformed in MO, allowing McCaskill to win. Trump isnt gonna win MO by double digits, by a 3-5 point win, by Trump, can allow the Gov race to be close. The NC gov race is 3-4 points now, too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She will get 45% minimum.

I know she defeated a literal crazy person but now that she won her election she has more good will.

Galloway seems lucky as a rule. I would not be shocked if that luck continues

Claire McCaskill was lucky too, until she wasn't.

This is a Presidential year, McCaskill won in 2012, in a presidential year, MO does vote GOP in presidential years, but Trump might only win MO by 6, not 11

He won it by 18.5, not 11.

He's likely to win it by 9, like Romney did, not 18, Clinton underperformed

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Trump won this state by 20 and McCaskill lost by 6 in a D+9 wave. Governor races aren’t as partisan and Parsons isn’t a super strong incumbent but Galloway’s odds here are not good.

Trump is more likely to carry MO by Mitt Romney number 9-11, not 20.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not saying she will win or lose, almost every MO Gov have had tough reelection battles. 

Heikamp and McCaskill both won in 2012 years and PVI wasnt +9, it was +4 and they both lost in midterms, where minority turnout in MO was down.

MO, NC and NH, have a habit of having close Gubernatorial elections. Look what Kelly did, she cut Sununu's lead to 7 from 16

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Missouri has swung hard R in the age of Trump, just like VA has swung hard D. It’s just no where near competitive any longer.

I fully agree, but at state level, MO has elected statwide officials and like KY, Dems have been competetive in AG office and auditor office. That's why Beshear is only 6 points done, and can overcome that, by Nov, 2019

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

French Republican thinks that 2016 will be the same as 2020, and that it wont be a wave. A wave can happen and just like in 2018, sweep Dems in red states

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Claire McCaskill won in 2012 when it was a D+4 wave. If its a 2012 election Dems can win red states. Dont forget there are Dem incumbants in House seats that are in rubby red states, that can help downballot

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

538 also didnt have Dems winning KS gov 2018 either. The point I was making was that in 2020, higher Black and female turnout,  and Parsons signing anti-abortion bill, and Harris on ballot can be huge for Galloway in an upset

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not much has changed, since Trump is the sane Wallstreet Capitalist that Romney is and Trump is no different. Together, they only help out their special interests and donors. I am very familiar with how things can repeat themselves in a Dem wave year and how Black and female votes spike in presidential years as opposed to midterm. It would be an upser, like I said before, but it can be another Dem blue wave

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I mean yeah, Parson will probably win, but I don’t buy that Republicans are guaranteed to win every statewide/Senate race in MO from now on after Democrats came within three points of winning a Senate race in 2016 and actually won a statewide race by 6 points in 2018. McCaskill did lose, but she’s always been an unpopular Senator and still did 12 points better than Clinton. Missouri is still way more Democratic-friendly downballot than Indiana.

From what I’ve heard from friends in Missouri, Parsons is pretty well-regarded though and don’t think a stronger than average Republican incumbent is gonna lose statewide in Missouri in 2020.  Democrats could obviously do a lot worse than Scott Sifton for MO AG (but I think he’s better off waiting to see what Wagner’s district looks like after redistricting and whether he lives in it, assuming she survives 2020), plus it wouldn’t be the worst idea to run a wave insurance candidate for Treasurer, but both of those row offices would still start out as Likely R.

Also, unlike in 2018, females and blacks will come out more in the St Louis and KC suburbs.  This is a wave insurance election, but Kamala and Beto can energize independents.  Also, Parsons signed a very anti-abortion bill that will bring Dems home

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I mean yeah, Parson will probably win, but I don’t buy that Republicans are guaranteed to win every statewide/Senate race in MO from now on after Democrats came within three points of winning a Senate race in 2016 and actually won a statewide race by 6 points in 2018. McCaskill did lose, but she’s always been an unpopular Senator and still did 12 points better than Clinton. Missouri is still way more Democratic-friendly downballot than Indiana.

From what I’ve heard from friends in Missouri, Parsons is pretty well-regarded though and don’t think a stronger than average Republican incumbent is gonna lose statewide in Missouri in 2020.  Democrats could obviously do a lot worse than Scott Sifton for MO AG (but I think he’s better off waiting to see what Wagner’s district looks like after redistricting and whether he lives in it, assuming she survives 2020), plus it wouldn’t be the worst idea to run a wave insurance candidate for Treasurer, but both of those row offices would still start out as Likely R.

Also, unlike in 2018, females and blacks will come out more in the St Louis and KC suburbs.  This is a wave insurance election, but Kamala and Beto can energize independents.  Also, Parsons signed a very anti-abortion bill that will bring Dems home

Insinuating Kamala Harris would win MO or come close

And I doubt that abortion is a winning issue there

Claire McCaskill won in a Prez 2012 year in a D+4 year, not D+9 year, over Akin, and abortion was a winning issue.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems do have an 11 point lead on Generic Ballot 48-39, if its a wave, MO gov is winnable, this is definitely a dark horse race, and a race to watch. MO, NC are the only two govs that will be winnable in 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I really don't see Parson losing. If McCaskill lost by nearly six points even in a D+9 year, I don't see how Galloway can win in a year that's unlikely to be as D-friendly.

Parsons can lose, states like KS and MO can vote different ways in presidential campaigns than stateqide elections. Thats why Kelly won in 2018 and McCaskill won in 2012. Trump isnt carrying MO by 18, but 9, like Romney

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Galloway would not have entered race if she didnt think she would win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good luck to Galloway.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Parsons isnt safe. If the female vote didnt matter McCaskill wouldnt have won. In a wave, MO flips to Galloway

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McCaskill won in a Dem plus 4 yr, in 2012. The difference between 2012 and 2018, was that 2012 was a presidential year and 2018 was a midterm election. Females will be energized to vote. If the PVI, not like in 2016, but in 2012, Galloway has a chance.

Icespear werent you one of those that said Bevin was gonna win, well he isnt winning, Beshear is

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It will be interesting to see which county has a largest drop from Trump % of vote to Parson % of vote.

Maybe Greene? Maybe Platte?

Jefferson county, probably. It has a lot of socially conservative Democrats who could still vote D outside of the presidential race.

But it won’t really matter, Galloway is heading for a +15 points defeat anyway.

Galloway isnt headed for a 15 point defeat, maybe 6. All eyes are on KY-Gov, if Beshear can win, then there maybe cracks in red wall

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems best chance for pickups are Vermont and New Hampshire, due to minimum wage Bill being passed in New Hampshire and Sununu vetoing it makes him vulnerable