MO Gov Galloway in (user search)
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  MO Gov Galloway in (search mode)
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Author Topic: MO Gov Galloway in  (Read 10822 times)
jamestroll
jamespol
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« on: June 27, 2019, 04:35:23 PM »
« edited: February 22, 2021, 01:14:51 PM by jimmie »

She will get 45% minimum.

I know she defeated a literal crazy person but now that she won her election she has more good will.

Galloway seems lucky as a rule. I would not be shocked if that luck continues


edit: awful prediction
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jamestroll
jamespol
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« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2019, 03:22:51 AM »

She will get 45% minimum.

I know she defeated a literal crazy person but now that she won her election she has more good will.

Galloway seems lucky as a rule. I would not be shocked if that luck continues

She will get 45% minimum at the best.

I am studying all Midwestern suburban areas very thoroughly.  This is something god told to me do and she will earn between 45 and 47% of the vote.
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jamestroll
jamespol
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« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2019, 03:55:08 AM »

She will get 45% minimum.

I know she defeated a literal crazy person but now that she won her election she has more good will.

Galloway seems lucky as a rule. I would not be shocked if that luck continues

She will get 45% minimum at the best.

I am studying all Midwestern suburban areas very thoroughly.  This is something god told to me do and she will earn between 45 and 47% of the vote.

And this number is based on what ? McCaskill who spent 40 millions dollars barely won 45% of the vote last year. And she was an incumbent.

Yeah, some wealthy, inner suburbs around St Louis are trending D but you have then to take into account Jefferson County where democrats have collapsed over the past few years, St Charles Co is not becoming more D friendly either. Anyway even if Galloway can make some gains in college educated suburbs, it won't be enough because she will get crushed in rural areas and smaller metro areas like Springfield

She will be lucky to win 43% of the vote


Yes, McCaskill was such a popular incumbent as evidenced by this:



And you are absolutely right that in this day and age a Democrat can not win Greene County as evidenced by this



Galloway probably wont win but Parson isn't incredibly well known either. It will be competitive-ish but Parson probably wins 51 to 47
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jamestroll
jamespol
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« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2019, 05:06:44 AM »

Claire McCaskill won in 2012 when it was a D+4 wave. If its a 2012 election Dems can win red states. Dont forget there are Dem incumbants in House seats that are in rubby red states, that can help downballot

Are you even a real person?
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jamestroll
jamespol
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2019, 06:11:43 AM »



It is now official.

Will likely be Galloway for Governor and Sifton for Attorney General.

We should keep in mind that Galloway won last year because her opponent was literally a crazy person. However, the Auditors race was very much over shadowed and Galloway's name ID was probably well below 30% prior to the last few weeks before the election.

So I will not count her out and believe she will run close but will probably not defeat Parson.
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jamestroll
jamespol
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2019, 03:57:49 PM »

And of course no one even acknowledges that I stated that I do not believe Galloway will defeat Parson at this time. Though I will not dismiss the possibility.
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jamestroll
jamespol
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« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2019, 11:37:00 PM »

Remember that she still managed to win by 6  despite Claire losing by 6, an impressive feat in thesecpartisan times.

Sure, but have you seen who was her opponent ? Parson is a popular incumbent and MO is a conservative state, I don’t really see how he can be vulnerable unless some scandals emerge

Do you think anyone in Missouri did?

The senate race over shadowed the Auditors contest so much that probably very very few people even remember who Saundra McDowell was.

McDowell was an interesting character though.
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jamestroll
jamespol
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« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2019, 05:54:03 PM »

It will be interesting to see which county has a largest drop from Trump % of vote to Parson % of vote.

Maybe Greene? Maybe Platte?
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jamestroll
jamespol
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« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2019, 07:45:33 PM »

Galloway is a good candidate, but it's hard to see her beating a noncontroversial generic R like Parson in blood red MO at the same time Trump is landsliding in the state.

Not to mention she barely cracked 50% against one of the worst candidates that was a literal fraud and had literally no money despite it being a D+9 Democratic wave year. Still impressive by Missouri Democrat standards no doubt, but I don't see how she wins unless Parson becomes super unpopular and/or scandaled. The real question is the margin.

All this is true and I have thought over it a lot but to Galloway's credit and defense:

1) The Senate race very much over shadowed the Auditors race. Sort of a shame as it is elected in midterms in theory to be a check on the executive branch. But few people knew anything of Saundra McDowell or who she was. They just saw the (R) next to her name.

2) 2018 was a D+9 year yes but we did have somewhat of a counter wave and we can not always expect that in future elections.

3) Now instead of being appointed to an office by an unpopular governor that was held by a Republican who died by suicide, Galloway now won re-election in her own right and that does bring some good will.

4) Galloway never had a contested office until last year.. and in a stand alone race she would have likely won by a larger margin.

so overall I think she will only lose by a few points next year but at least we know Parson likely won't landslide now!
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