Did the surplus actually hurt Gore?

[Sumner 1868]

Looking at polling about the surplus late in the 1990s, I was slightly surprised to see how much of a generation gap existed over how it should be spent. When the question was first polled in January 1998, 57% of Generation X wanted it spent on domestic programs in general, while older voters wanted it spent on Social Security and Boomers divided evenly.

http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/legacy-pdf/98.pdf

Those numbers didn't change much later that year.

http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/legacy-pdf/84.pdf

Shortly after Bush was inaugurated, Pew asked the question again and found the divide still existed.

https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/legacy-pdf/17.pdf

As we all know, Gore choose to side with elderly voters by promising to spend the surplus on a "lockbox" for Social Security. This move backfired, as he did pretty much the same as Clinton with seniors while losing substantial ground with youth (some to Nader, others to Bush). The surplus divided Democrats rather than uniting them. Making matters worse for Gore, the surplus also revived Republican demands for radical tax cuts, which clearly helped Bush.

I think that if there had been no projected budget surplus Gore would have won the election.

[darklordoftech]

Why did anyone oppose the “lockbox”? Isn’t Social Security funding universally popular, especially when you consider which age group has the highest voter turnout?

[Sumner 1868]

Why did anyone oppose the “lockbox”? Isn’t Social Security funding universally popular, especially when you consider which age group has the highest voter turnout?

As the polling above shows, there were massive generational divides over surplus priorities. It wasn't funding the lockbox itself but that many felt he wanted the lockbox and the expense of other things.

[sg0508]

No. What hurt him was that the economy was thinning starting the second quarter of 2000 and that he clearly distanced himself from Clinton and the economic record of the administration. 

[brucejoel99]

No. What hurt him was that the economy was thinning starting the second quarter of 2000 and that he clearly distanced himself from Clinton and the economic record of the administration. 

This.

[Sir Mohamed]

No. What hurt him was that the economy was thinning starting the second quarter of 2000 and that he clearly distanced himself from Clinton and the economic record of the administration. 

This.

I agree. He also had a midicore debate performance. W seemed like the dude you want to have a beer with, Gore came across as a little bit of a technocrat.