2020 Texas State Legislature Megathread

[Gass3268]

Stickland almost lost to an unknown Democrat in 2018. District also overlaps with TX-24.

https://twitter.com/TexasTribune/status/1143174613603704838

[CatoMinor]

The legislature certainly won't be the same without him. I'll miss seeing the House vote board light up with almost unanimous Ayes except for his single Nay votes.

His seat probably stays a likely Dem pickup.

[Politician]

O'Rourke actually lost this district. Stickland is a total nut job, I feel like the seat becomes harder for Democrats without him.

[Gracile]

This seat is a top-tier pickup opportunity, especially since it will coincide with the competitive TX-24 race.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Darn. Looks like he saw the writing on the wall. Does make it harder for us to win imo. But nonetheless, this antivaxer scumbag will not be missed.

[Frenchrepublican]

The legislature certainly won't be the same without him. I'll miss seeing the House vote board light up with almost unanimous Ayes except for his single Nay votes.

His seat probably stays a likely Dem pickup.

Lol.
Cruz won it by 3 last year

[DrScholl]

Romney carried that seat 61-37, Trump carried it 55-41. Cruz winning it by only 3% is a serious collapse in partisan strength.

[Frenchrepublican]

Romney carried that seat 61-37, Trump carried it 55-41. Cruz winning it by only 3% is a serious collapse in partisan strength.

Here are the 2018 numbers, I wouldn’t call this district « a Likely D pickup »

[DrScholl]

The 2018 numbers represent a clear trend from 2018. Whether or not the trend reverses itself in 2020 will remain to be seen, but often times trends like this do not reverse.

[Nyvin]

He's retiring for a reason,  the seat is obviously trending leftward.

[Frenchrepublican]

He's retiring for a reason,  the seat is obviously trending leftward.

The fact that this dumbass is retiring is making this seat safer

[Politician]

Here are some good ratings for the chamber:

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/1843600

I personally think calling the TX House of Representatives a tossup is a stretch, and I disagree on some of the district placements (he is being too cautious with many "Lean" and "Likely" districts) but the ratings are good.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

With Strickland dropping out, this seat has gone Lean D ---> Titanium R

I've heard "Strickland sucks", "2018 was a fluke" and "Sen. Cornyn". Any other reasons?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

With Strickland dropping out, this seat has gone Lean D ---> Titanium R

I've heard "Strickland sucks", "2018 was a fluke" and "Sen. Cornyn". Any other reasons?

I'm gonna have to stop you there....I actually live in this seat and I have since 2003

It is true Stickland is awful, but there have been numerous things occurring besides him that have been causing this seat to trend rapidly leftward. For one thing, there has been a high influx of hispanic population into the area, the suburbs (such as HEB) have changed a LOT over the past several years, especially since 2009. It should be no surprise then that things suddenly began rapidly narrowing a bit after 2009. This seat is a tossup and a key part to the dem roadmap to a majority, but I am very curious who steps up for the GOP here...

Also, Stickland isn't done with politics, he'll probably run for something in the next few years, my bet is on State Senate but who knows, if Marchant loses in 2020 I could see him trying for that in 2022....especially if a dem is President.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

With Strickland dropping out, this seat has gone Lean D ---> Titanium R

I've heard "Strickland sucks", "2018 was a fluke" and "Sen. Cornyn". Any other reasons?

I'm gonna have to stop you there....I actually live in this seat and I have since 2003

It is true Stickland is awful, but there have been numerous things occurring besides him that have been causing this seat to trend rapidly leftward. For one thing, there has been a high influx of hispanic population into the area, the suburbs (such as HEB) have changed a LOT over the past several years, especially since 2009. It should be no surprise then that things suddenly began rapidly narrowing a bit after 2009. This seat is a tossup and a key part to the dem roadmap to a majority, but I am very curious who steps up for the GOP here...

Also, Stickland isn't done with politics, he'll probably run for something in the next few years, my bet is on State Senate but who knows, if Marchant loses in 2020 I could see him trying for that in 2022....especially if a dem is President.

Thanks for that analysis! I just find the hot takes on this seat preposterous. I just don't believe that, given recent trends, the GOP locks this one up with "Generic TX Republican less bad than the predecessor" For a serious take, this one looks like a tossup to me.

Where do you think the race stands, with/without knowing the GOP candidate here?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

With Strickland dropping out, this seat has gone Lean D ---> Titanium R

I've heard "Strickland sucks", "2018 was a fluke" and "Sen. Cornyn". Any other reasons?

I'm gonna have to stop you there....I actually live in this seat and I have since 2003

It is true Stickland is awful, but there have been numerous things occurring besides him that have been causing this seat to trend rapidly leftward. For one thing, there has been a high influx of hispanic population into the area, the suburbs (such as HEB) have changed a LOT over the past several years, especially since 2009. It should be no surprise then that things suddenly began rapidly narrowing a bit after 2009. This seat is a tossup and a key part to the dem roadmap to a majority, but I am very curious who steps up for the GOP here...

Also, Stickland isn't done with politics, he'll probably run for something in the next few years, my bet is on State Senate but who knows, if Marchant loses in 2020 I could see him trying for that in 2022....especially if a dem is President.

Thanks for that analysis! I just find the hot takes on this seat preposterous. I just don't believe that, given recent trends, the GOP locks this one up with "Generic TX Republican less bad than the predecessor" For a serious take, this one looks like a tossup to me.

Where do you think the race stands, with/without knowing the GOP candidate here?

I agree on tossup, they are running Steve Riddell again (the 2018 nominee) and he already has the infrastructure in place. Not to mention that we will also be competitive for Pres, House, and Senate (the district I mean, maybe not the state, we'll see)

[ajc0918]

Here are some good ratings for the chamber:

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/1843600

I personally think calling the TX House of Representatives a tossup is a stretch, and I disagree on some of the district placements (he is being too cautious with many "Lean" and "Likely" districts) but the ratings are good.

Can someone explain why the TX House would be a toss up? Structurally are the TX House districts that dominated by suburban and urban districts that Dems have a shot?

[Nyvin]

Here are some good ratings for the chamber:

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/1843600

I personally think calling the TX House of Representatives a tossup is a stretch, and I disagree on some of the district placements (he is being too cautious with many "Lean" and "Likely" districts) but the ratings are good.

Can someone explain why the TX House would be a toss up? Structurally are the TX House districts that dominated by suburban and urban districts that Dems have a shot?

I think it mostly stems from O'Rourke winning a majority of seats in 2018.   The gerrymander of 2011 won't really be all that relevant anymore in 2020,  a lot of R-Held seats are in the suburbs where Democrats have been making big gains lately, while all the rural seats where Republicans have been improving in are all already Republican (unless their hispanic majority).

[Brittain33]

His name really is Stickland without an r, huh.

[Frodo]

Democrats could at the very least make even more significant gains in the legislature, if not outright take it over, as a direct result of a scandal within the governing Texas GOP, in which the Speaker allegedly met with a conservative activist and drew up a hit list of fellow Republicans for him to target:

Texas Republicans reel from nasty internal fight

[Terry the Fat Shark]

His name really is Stickland without an r, huh.

Yes I live in the district and it confused me for years, lol

Democrats could at the very least make even more significant gains in the legislature, if not outright take it over, as a direct result of a scandal within the governing Texas GOP, in which the Speaker allegedly met with a conservative activist and drew up a hit list of fellow Republicans for him to target:

Texas Republicans reel from nasty internal fight

Yes, there was already a bit of a GOP civil war ongoing prior to this. You will see in 2018 there were lots of primary challenges (some endorsed by Abbott!) and this is a bit of a continuation of this. Empower Texas has always been at odds with leadership, so this should escalate the fight as the state party continues to go rightward.