Is the UK actually going to break up soon?

[Ye We Can]

Soon=near future

There's a lot of recent surges in favor of Independence because of the whole brexit thing. Is it actually an existential threat to the Union as many are saying?

[brucejoel99]

England needs to just leave the UK. Fed up of hearing about all these Northern Irish, Welsh, & Scottish people coming to England & taking English jobs. Bloody unelected foreigners running the civil service!

Once England is free of the shackles of the UK, they'll be free to trade with the rest of Europe! I predict £1 trillion of investment will be the benefit. They certainly wouldn't have to deal with the Northern Irish border issue; that'd be for Northern Ireland, Scotland, & Wales to deal with.

But what to call this grand scheme? If Britain exiting the EU is Brexit, then maybe England leaving the UK should just be called Exit!

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Perhaps they should. This little experiment has gone on for too long.   

[CumbrianLefty]

Perhaps they should. This little experiment has gone on for too long.   

We might soon be able to ask this question about your country, the way things are going.......

[MillennialModerate]

I think it needs to go in one direction or the other:

Either integrate more so it feels less like a group of countries and more like ONE nation.

Or split: I think Northern Ireland should become part of Ireland.

Scotland, Wales and England should remain one. Especially England & Wales who are very similar.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I would be highly surprised if NI was not part of the Republic by, say, 2040. There's just many reasons why the current set up is not tenable.

Scotland at this point is 50:50. The Bats have the initiative and momentum, but a miscalculation on a second referenda could derail the project; and staying too long in power could induce fatigue.

Welsh independence is ... Unlikely.

[Del Tachi]

I sure hope not, just because a 21st century breakup would be motivated largely upon "cosmopolitan/Brexiteer" cultural cleavages rather than historical ethnic or religious divides.  That sort of motivation just doesn't seem healthy.   

[urutzizu]

I would be highly surprised if NI was not part of the Republic by, say, 2040. There's just many reasons why the current set up is not tenable.

Scotland at this point is 50:50. The Bats have the initiative and momentum, but a miscalculation on a second referenda could derail the project; and staying too long in power could induce fatigue.

Welsh independence is ... Unlikely.

This is a interesting point: i wonder how many right-wing inclined Scots actually sympathise with nationalism, but are currently opposed to nationalism because they would not want some "multicultural, pro-eu, SNP-led" left wing independent Scotland.
Unlike in Catalonia there is no significant right-wing scottish nationalist movement, while the unionist side is ideologically diverse. I dont think that said voting group is very big (maybe ca. 5%), but in a close referendum they could make the difference.

[CumbrianLefty]

SNP were known (mostly by antagonistic Labourites, granted) as the "Tartan Tories" in the olden days - they certainly had MPs who would almost certainly have taken the Tory whip south of the border until the 1979 GE.

That tendency has long been marginalised, but is not totally extinct even now.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I sure hope not, just because a 21st century breakup would be motivated largely upon "cosmopolitan/Brexiteer" cultural cleavages rather than historical ethnic or religious divides.  That sort of motivation just doesn't seem healthy.  

Yeah because Scottish independence and Irish unification weren't issues until Brexit happened.

[Del Tachi]

I sure hope not, just because a 21st century breakup would be motivated largely upon "cosmopolitan/Brexiteer" cultural cleavages rather than historical ethnic or religious divides.  That sort of motivation just doesn't seem healthy.   

Yeah because Scottish independence and Irish unification weren't issues until Brexit happened.

I think you’ve misunderstood my point.  I’m acknowledging that Scotland and Ireland are very culturally distinct from England, and a breakup for those reasons would be respectful inasmuch as there’s ample historical precedent for such disunions.  However, if the UK breaks up because of petty post-Industrial culture warring over “Brexit” then that’s a much sadder occurance. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Perhaps they should. This little experiment has gone on for too long.   

We might soon be able to ask this question about your country, the way things are going.......

I'm all for that. What do we do to little children who can't get along? We send them to their separate corners and tell them not to speak to each other. The same should apply to nations.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I hope so but I doubt it.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I sure hope not, just because a 21st century breakup would be motivated largely upon "cosmopolitan/Brexiteer" cultural cleavages rather than historical ethnic or religious divides.  That sort of motivation just doesn't seem healthy.   

Yeah because Scottish independence and Irish unification weren't issues until Brexit happened.

I think you’ve misunderstood my point.  I’m acknowledging that Scotland and Ireland are very culturally distinct from England, and a breakup for those reasons would be respectful inasmuch as there’s ample historical precedent for such disunions.  However, if the UK breaks up because of petty post-Industrial culture warring over “Brexit” then that’s a much sadder occurance. 

Isn't it more of a combination of all those? That's what the SNP's homepage seems to say.

After being told by the Tory Westminster government and No campaign in 2014 that the way to protect Scotland’s place in Europe was to vote No, we now find ourselves potentially being dragged out of the EU against our will – and unfortunately for people in Scotland, this is only the most obvious of the broken promises from the anti-independence parties.

Whether it was pledging that power lay with the people of Scotland, the Tory election promises of massive investment in Carbon Capture technology, Michael Fallon telling ship-workers on the Clyde that a No vote would protect their jobs, Ruth Davidson promising that voting No would guarantee our place in Europe, or promises of ‘extensive’ new powers – the reality has been damning indictment of the Westminster government’s real attitude towards Scotland.

The UK Westminster government has misled the people of Scotland so it’s no wonder that support for independence is continuing to grow.

[PSOL]

One can dream...

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I hope so but I doubt it.

We need a stable and strong UK. Losing Scotland would weaken the US's strongest NATO ally.

[beesley]

I hope so but I doubt it.

We need a stable and strong UK. Losing Scotland would weaken the US's strongest NATO ally.

As someone who lives in the UK, nice to see some common sense. I still see some people saying things like 'why should we care about the UK? I haven't since 1776!' in Youtube and IG comments sections (the worst places I know, worse than twitter imo). In the UK or Canada we don't have great politicians at all, but it's hard to believe people like that unironically exist.

[xelas81]

I hope so but I doubt it.

We need a stable and strong UK. Losing Scotland would weaken the US's strongest NATO ally.

As someone who lives in the UK, nice to see some common sense. I still see some people saying things like 'why should we care about the UK? I haven't since 1776!' in Youtube and IG comments sections (the worst places I know, worse than twitter imo). In the UK or Canada we don't have great politicians at all, but it's hard to believe people like that unironically exist.

England + Wales makes up 89% of population of the UK and similar % for GDP.
I don't think rump UK's power projection would be disproportionally effected.
So IMO people are exaggerating impact of Scotland and NI leaving UK in geopolitics (Obviously it would have big internal politcal impact).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I hope so but I doubt it.

We need a stable and strong UK. Losing Scotland would weaken the US's strongest NATO ally.

I know, that's why I want it, I don't like England.

[Senator Incitatus]

Perhaps they should. This little experiment has gone on for too long.   

We might soon be able to ask this question about your country, the way things are going.......

Neither country will survive as currently constructed, but the United States at least has a chance to adapt.

[Izzyeviel]

I sure hope so. I for one no longer want to live in Dumbistan

[Blue3]

Perhaps they should. This little experiment has gone on for too long.   

We might soon be able to ask this question about your country, the way things are going.......

Neither country will survive as currently constructed, but the United States at least has a chance to adapt.

The UK is more flexible than the US, since it doesn't have to worry about constitutional amendments.

[CumbrianLefty]

I sure hope so. I for one no longer want to live in Dumbistan

Vote him out at the earliest opportunity, then.

[darklordoftech]

I hope so but I doubt it.

We need a stable and strong UK. Losing Scotland would weaken the US's strongest NATO ally.

As someone who lives in the UK, nice to see some common sense. I still see some people saying things like 'why should we care about the UK? I haven't since 1776!' in Youtube and IG comments sections (the worst places I know, worse than twitter imo). In the UK or Canada we don't have great politicians at all, but it's hard to believe people like that unironically exist.

You’re welcome.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

England leaves and kicks the Scottish monarchs back to Holyrood.