How would 08 Obama perform in this years primary?

[Barack Oganja]

Let's say Obama was elected as Illinois' junior senator in 2016. He then launches a presidential campaign in 2019 (similar timeline as Kamala Harris). How would he do in the primaries? Would he stand out as a history making candidate, or get lost in the shuffle? Assume Hillary was president from 2009-2017 and then Trump got elected.

[Rookie Yinzer]

What Democrat lost to Trump in 2016?

[Saint Milei]

He'd be in between tulsi and warren so he'd probably be around 3-5%

[Ilhan Apologist]

What Democrat lost to Trump in 2016?

[Blue3]

If he ran the exact same way, he'd be around Beto/Booker levels.

[Barack Oganja]

What Democrat lost to Trump in 2016?

Someone similar to real life 2016 Hillary, establishment backed type figure

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

If he ran the exact same way, he'd be around Beto/Booker levels.

He would be doing better. He is more charismatic than either of them and in this world he would have added excitement as being potentially elected as the first black president in 2020. I say he tops the polls just ahead of Clinton's VP, who is offering nostalgia for the Clinton years.

[Ilhan Apologist]

I doubt Beto or Buttigieg would be running in a world where Obama wasn't yet president. The hope-y change-y stuff wouldn't be an overdone shtick either. Obama would be doing quite well.

[ElectionsGuy]

Maybe it's way Obama acts now after 8 years of a presidency but I don't think 58-59-year-old Obama would have same charisma and energy as 46-47-year-old Obama. Not to mention this field would drown him out and without a DNC speech moment like the one he had he wouldn't have been that known anyway.

But if history was exactly the same 12 years late and he was the same age and everything, he could have a really good fighting chance.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Well I would also wonder who the Democrat nominated in 2016 was. Also did he still run in the 2008 primaries? Or even the 2016 ones? A lot of that information would be helpful in this hypothetical. But whatever.

Ignoring all that, politics today is far too cynical for Obama's 2008 tactics to be as effective. He would probably be derided as a "platitude" candidate with a funny name and be mostly ignored. He would also be quite a bit older and be less of a fresh face, especially since his Senate voting record will be longer and possibly even more checkered. Not to mention that his nothingburger controversies from the past would actually probably be more harmful now with how rabid the right has become (and apparently still did become, even though Obama's election was what helped them become as horrifyingly extreme as they are now in our current timeline). Really, 2008 may have been the only time Obama could have won the primary and general election. That applies to Hillary Clinton too.