2020 PA State Elections Megathread

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Did the pro-Trump Democrat in Allegheny lose her primary?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Did the pro-Trump Democrat in Allegheny lose her primary?

Yes, that person is Kass.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Did the pro-Trump Democrat in Allegheny lose her primary?

Yes, that person is Kass.

Wow, I'm glad that it's such a landslide loss. It's pretty embarrassing that the Allegheny Democratic Party actually endorsed her.

[Zaybay]

Ahmad has taken the lead.

[GlobeSoc]

how did progressives and/or DSA do on June 2nd?

[Zaybay]

how did progressives and/or DSA do on June 2nd?

Very well. Focusing specifically on PA, the DSA ousted a state senator, and a couple other Progressive challengers won here and there.

Check out the New Mexico Progressive Thread to see the coup de grace of June 2nd.

[ctherainbow]

Apologies for borderline necroing this thread, but I've finally wrapped up all the loose ends from last cycle, and am ready to do a postmortem of the 2020 PA Elections.

Summary:  The PA Dems had a disastrous night, with the only high-profile bright spot being Josh Shapiro's overperformance of the entire statewide ticket including Biden, confirming him as the (barring any unforeseen items)clear best hope for PA Dems to retain the governorship next year.  The GOP flipped 2/3 of the statewide row office seats, the State Senate was a wash(almost became Dem -1 if Brewster hadn't squeaked out a win), and Dems lost 3 seats in the State House, including a mortifying loss for the House Dems Minority Leader, racking up a massive deficit of statewide combined votes versus the GOP House candidates.

Let's jump into the numbers!


Federal:

President/VP:

I'm only mentioning this race perfunctorily, as it's been beaten to death long ago, but I will note that the media's Election Week narrative of "Atlanta and Philadelphia saving the rest of the country from Trump"(I heard this several times a day for weeks)... may be true for Atlanta, but Biden actually lost ground in Philly from 2016, so I'm not seeing the same Great Savior Philadelphia that many in the media did.

My Rating:  Tossup
Result:  D+1.17 (Dem Flip)

Joe Biden/Kamala Harris:  3,458,229 / 50.01%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence(I):  3,377,674 / 48.84%
Jo Jorgenson/Spike Cohen:  79,380 / 1.15%

Seat Change:  

D Gain: President/VP

Partisan Change:  

D+1/R-1 (1R-->1D)

Ratings Result:  

(1 Tossup)

Competitiveness Index:

President/VP: +1.17


Statewide:

Attorney General:

Josh Shapiro is a bit of a hero right now amongst the establishment portion of the PA Dems, and is seen as the prohibitive frontrunner for Governor in 2022.  Not only did he outperform Biden's margins, he also received more raw votes than Biden, despite the presence of a Green on the Attorney General ballot, which Biden did not have to contend with.  He has yet to announce for Governor, perhaps waiting until the pandemic eases further and reduces electoral animosity against PA's top executive position.

My Rating:  Lean D
Result:  D+4.52 (Dem Hold)

Josh Shapiro(I):  3,461,472 / 50.85%
Heather Heidelbaugh:  3,153,831 / 46.33%
Daniel Wassmer:  120,489 / 1.77%
Richard Weiss:  70,804 / 1.04%

Auditor General:

Poor Nina Ahmad.  A combination of lackluster support from the state party, DeFoor's overperformance in Philly+outright winning Dauphin County, and a last name that did her no favors in rural PA, made her the most underperforming statewide candidate of the night for the PA Dems, despite this race also featuring the best-performing statewide Libertarian of the night.  During her campaign, she also came off as running for a legislative position, not for Auditor.  There are rumblings that she is extremely pissed at the PA Dems and may challenge for leadership in upcoming party elections.

My Rating:  Tilt D
Result:  R+3.09 (GOP Pickup)

Timothy DeFoor:  3,338,009 / 49.44%
Nina Ahmad:  3,129,131 / 46.35%
Jennifer Moore:  205,929 / 3.05%
Olivia Faison:  78,588 / 1.16%

State Treasurer:

This race was the biggest disappointment for me and most PA Dems.  Relatively well-liked Democratic incumbent Joe Torsella sleepwalked through the election season, and was edged out by Stacy Garrity in the closest statewide margin of the night.

My Rating:  Lean D
Result:  R+0.77 (GOP Flip)

Stacy Garrity:  3,291,877 / 48.68%
Joe Torsella(I):  3,239,331 / 47.91%
Joe Soloski:  148,614 / 2.20%
Timothy Runkle:  81,984 / 1.21%

Seat Change:  

D Hold: Attorney General
R Gain: Auditor General, Treasurer

Partisan Change:  

D-2/R+2 (3D-->1D/2R)

Ratings Result:  

1/3

Competitiveness Index:

State Treasurer: +0.77
Auditor General: +3.09
Attorney General: +4.52


State Senate:

District 1:

Progressive challenger Nikil Saval knocked out incumbent Larry Farnese in the primary, then cruised to election unopposed in this Philadelphia district.

My Rating:  Strong D
Result:  D+100 (D Hold)

Nikil Saval:  124,514 / 100%

District 3:

Philadelphia

My Rating:  Strong D
Result:  D+100 (D Hold)

Sharif Street(I):  90,323 / 100%

District 5:

Philadelphia

My Rating:  Strong D
Result:  D+100 (D Hold)

John Sabatina Jr(I):  69,514 / 100%

District 7:

Montgomery/Philadelphia

My Rating: Strong D
Result:  D+100 (D Hold)

Vincent Hughes(I):  115,760 / 100%

District 9:

About the only bright spot of the evening for Senate Dems was John Kane's ouster of GOP incumbent Tom Killion in this Chester/Delaware district.

My Rating: Tilt D
Result:  D+3.9 (D Flip)

John Kane:  80,198 / 51.95%
Tom Killion(I):  74,173 / 48.05%

District 11:

Berks

My Rating:  Strong D
Result:  D+16.72 (D Hold)

Judy Schwank(I):  66,735 / 58.36%
Annette Baker:  47,624 / 41.64%

District 13:

Lancaster

My Rating:  Lean R
Result:  R+11.26 (R Hold)

Scott Martin(I):  73,371 / 55.63%
Janet Diaz:  58,524 / 44.37%

District 15:

This Dauphin/Perry district was a pickup opportunity for Dems, but they blew it.  With two Capitol Area losses under his belt now, it's hard to see George Scott running a third time and winning.

My Rating:  Tossup
Result:  R+3.26 (R Hold)

John DiSanto(I):  71,119 / 51.63%
George Scott:  66,632 / 48.37%

District 17:

Embattled incumbent Dem Daylin Leach went down in the primary, but Amanda Cappelletti, who defeated him, held this Delaware/Montgomery seat for Dems with a whopping 32 point victory.

My Rating:  Likely D
Result:  D+31.82 (D Hold)

Amanda Cappelletti:  105,840 / 65.91%
Ellen Fisher:  54,750 / 34.09%

District 19:

Carolyn Comitta easily defeated Kevin Runey to replace retiring Andy Dinniman in this Chester seat.

My Rating:  Likely D
Result:  D+14.96 (D Hold)

Carolyn Comitta:  88,996 / 57.48%
Kevin Runey:  65,836 / 42.52%

District 21:

Butler/Clarion/Forest/Venango/Warren

My Rating:  Strong R
Result:  R+41.7 (R Hold)

Scott Hutchinson(I):  98,627 / 70.85%
Shelbie Stromeyer:  40,570 / 29.15%

District 23:

Bradford/Lycoming/Sullivan/Susquehanna/Union

My Rating:  Strong R
Result:  R+46.08 (R Hold)

Gene Yaw(I):  87,037 / 73.04%
Jackie Baker:  32,131 / 26.96%

District 25:

Cris Dush defeated Margie Brown to replace retiring top Senate GOP Senator Joe Scarnati in this Cameron/Clearfield/Clinton/Elk/Jefferson/McKean/Potter/Tioga district.

My Rating:  Strong R
Result:  R+48.82 (R Hold)

Cris Dush:  88,994 / 74.41%
Margie Brown:  30,608 / 25.59%

District 27:

Columbia/Luzerne/Montour/Northumberland/Snyder

My Rating:  Strong R
Result:  R+44.48 (R Hold)

John Gordner(I):  83,629 / 72.24%
Michelle Siegel:  32,135 / 27.76%

District 29:

Berks/Schuylkill

My Rating:  Strong R
Result:  R+100 (R Hold)

Dave Argall(I):  106,205 / 100%

District 31:

Cumberland/York

My Rating:  Strong R
Result:  R+21.04 (R Hold)

Mike Regan(I):  95,228 / 60.52%
Shanna Danielson:  62,123 / 39.48%

District 33:

Adams/Cumberland/Franklin/York

My Rating:  Strong R
Result:  R+37.28 (R Hold)

Doug Mastriano(I):  96,097 / 68.64%
Richard Sterner:  43,914 / 31.36%

District 35:

While a relatively safe race for the GOP, this district deserves a mention for just how staggeringly badly Shaun Dougherty did.  While we've known that the small exurban manufacturing cities like Johnstown were swinging hard Republican, this district was controlled by Dems as recently as 2016.  In 2020, it became the Dems second worst Senate performance of the races they contested, beaten only by the EXTREMELY rural 25th, and the uncontested 29th.  This Bedford/Cambria/Clearfield district is the harshest reflection of PA Dems losses in non urban/suburban PA.

My Rating:  Likely R
Result:  R+47.28 (R Hold)

Wayne Langerholc(I):  91,595 / 73.64%
Shaun Dougherty: 32,794 / 26.36%

District 37:

"Could easily flip" was my prediction, and I should have been even less bullish on Pam Iovino's chances of holding this seat, because she went down in flames.  This loss negated the Dems' gain in the southeastern suburbs, and gave the PA GOP a foothold back into Allegheny County on the Senatorial level.

My Rating:  Tilt D
Result:  R+4.22 (R Flip)

Devlin Robinson:  92,027 / 52.11%
Pam Iovino(I):  84,582 / 47.89%

District 39:

Westmoreland

My Rating:  Likely R
Result:  R+35.16 (R Hold)

Kim Ward(I):  93,310 / 67.58%
Tay Waltenbaugh:  44,768 / 32.42%

District 41:

Armstrong/Butler/Indiana/Westmoreland

My Rating:  Strong R
Result:  R+45.56 (R Hold)

Joe Pittman(I):  92,542 / 72.78%
Anthony Deloreto:  34,610 / 27.22%

District 43:

Allegheny

My Rating:  Strong D
Result:  D+100 (D Hold)

Jay Costa Jr(I):  117,888 / 100%

District 45:

This Allegheny/Westmoreland district was almost a disaster for PA Dems, and though I had pegged it as the PA Senate GOP's second-best pickup opportunity, I didn't expect it to be THIS close to actually flipping.  It was also a bit of a disaster post-election, with the PA GOP refusing to seat Brewster until Ziccarelli's federal court cases contesting the state election failed to gain any traction.  These results also bear out Brewster's luck in not drawing opponents in recent cycles, and I expect the PA GOP to contest this seat(or a redrawn one that is similar geographically) fiercely in 2024.

My Rating:  Likely D
Result:  D+0.06 (D Hold)

James Brewster(I):  66,261 / 50.03%
Nicole Ziccarelli:  66,192 / 49.97%

District 47:

Beaver/Butler/Lawrence

My Rating:  Likely R
Result:  R+32.94 (R Hold)

Elder Vogel(I):  88,419 / 66.47%
Stephen Krizan:  44,595 / 33.53%

District 49:

Another major embarrassment for the PA Dems was this Erie district, which is by all accounts a swing district, yet challenger Slomski got crushed by an almost 20 point margin.  I imagine PA Dems will try to find a strong recruit for 2024, but we'll have to see if this seat continues to drift even further away from Dems, or if Laughlin had unique crossover appeal that doomed Slomski.  We might get to test this two years early, as there are initial signs that Laughlin may run for Governor next year.

My Rating:  Tossup
Result:  R+19.62 (R Hold)

Daniel Laughlin(I):  69,818 / 59.81%
Julie Slomski:  46,907 / 40.19%

Seat Change:  

D Hold: District 1, 3, 5, 7, 11, 17, 19, 43, 45
D Gain: District 9
R Gain: District 37
R Hold: District 13, 15, 21, 23, 25, 27, 29, 31, 33, 35, 39, 41, 47, 49

Partisan Change:  

D+0/R+0 (28R/1I/21D)-->28R/1I/21D)

Ratings Result:  

22/23 (+2 Tossups)

Competitiveness Index:

District 45: +0.06
District 15: +3.26
District 9: +3.9
District 37: +4.22
District 13: +11.26
District 19: +14.96
District 11: +16.72
District 49: +19.62
District 31: +21.04
District 17: +31.82
District 47: +32.94
District 39: +35.16
District 33: +37.28
District 21: +41.7
District 27: +44.48
District 41: +45.56
District 23: +46.08
District 35: +47.28
District 25: +48.82
District 1: +100
District 3: +100
District 5: +100
District 7: +100
District 29: +100
District 43: +100

Senate Composition Map:

(Flipped districts in lighter shades)

[ctherainbow]

For the State House, I will not be(at least initially) listing uncontested races.

State House

District 3:

Erie

My Rating:  Strong D
Result:  D+22.74 (D Hold)

Ryan Bizzarro(I): 22,219 / 61.37%
Greg Hayes:  13,985 / 38.63%

District 5:

Berks

My Rating:  Likely R
Result:  R+39.46 (R Hold)

Barry Jozwiak(I):  23,291 / 69.73%
Graham Gonzales:  10,112 / 30.27%

District 6:

Crawford/Erie

My Rating:  Strong R
Result:  R+30.7 (R Hold)

Bradley Roae(I):  21,285 / 65.35%
Matthew Ferrence:  11,286 / 34.65%

District 7:

This was an uncontested Mercer County district, but I feel it deserves a special mention, as incumbent Mark Longietti managed to capture both the Democratic and Republican nominations.

My Rating:  Strong D
Result:  D+100 (D Hold)

Mark Longietti(I):  28,297 / 100%

District 8:

Butler/Mercer

My Rating:  Strong R
Result:  R+50.3 (R Hold)

Timothy Bonner:  23,838 / 75.15%
Phillip Heasley:  7,883 / 24.85%

District 9:

Lawrence

My Rating:  Lean D
Result:  D+10.45 (D Hold)

Christopher Sainato(I): 15,180 / 50.35%
Carol Ryan:  12,030 / 39.9%
Darryl Audia:  2,940 / 9.75%

District 10:

Beaver/Butler/Lawrence

My Rating:  Lean R
Result:  R+17.07 (R Hold)

Aaron Bernstine(I):  15,009 / 51.5%
Kolbe Cole:  10,032 / 34.43%
Johnathan Peffer:  4,100 / 14.07%