2020 PA State Elections Megathread

[ctherainbow]

IIRC - Republican was relatively moderate on social issues too...

Yeah, he’s very... meh... on social issues.  100% rating from Planned Parenthood, 50% rating from some major LGBTQ+ groups, and sub-20% ratings from environmental groups.  Definitely a mixed bag, but more moderate than Generic R, which is going to make unseating him that much harder.

[Yellowhammer]

Martina White’s seat is likely R.

Aren't you the user who said banning conversion therapy "deprives queer people of necessary treatment to release them from suffering" or something along those lines?  I don't need you in my thread, thank you.

Yes that’s me, and no, I won’t leave

[lfromnj]

Interestingly there's also a rock island state senate seat that Hillary carried but the Dem lost.

Reminder these areas aren't really ancestrally Democrat just Working class.

[Politician]

Interestingly there's also a rock island state senate seat that Hillary carried but the Dem lost.

Reminder these areas aren't really ancestrally Democrat just Working class.

Rock Island is ancestrally Dem; Whiteside and Carroll are ancestrally R (the latter never voted D for president until Obama won it in 2008).

It's also worth noting the GOP picked up that seat by double digits in 2014 and held it by <2 points in 2018.

[Peanut]

Thank you for the district-by-district analysis, it looks great! Definitely looking forward to the State Leg races in PA next year. They'll be very interesting.

[ctherainbow]

Thank you for the district-by-district analysis, it looks great! Definitely looking forward to the State Leg races in PA next year. They'll be very interesting.

You're welcome!  Hope ya stop by throughout the cycle next year for updates.   

[ctherainbow]

Updates:

State Senate District 9:

Republican State Senator Thomas Killion, who is in serious danger of losing his suburban Philly district, has a challenger in local health care executive Brett Burman, who is running on a platform of ending corruption in the state legislature, expanding school district funding for underfunded schools, and reforming the state health care support system, especially in the area of mental health.  If elected, Burman would also be the first openly gay PA State Senator.

https://www.delcotimes.com/news/democratic-challenger-emerges-in-th-state-senate-district/article_4d01eac2-93a3-11e9-942f-17bf2a9d4e80.html

Burman has the potential to develop into a strong candidate by next year, but it's going to take some time and strong performance in local media, as he doesn't have a particularly visible public profile.  Not changing this district rating based on his entrance into the race.

Tilt D --> Tilt D

State Senate District 17:

Embattled Democratic State Senator Daylin Leach has drawn another primary challenger, Norristown Area School Board President Shae Ashe.  Ashe joins community activist Sara Atkins in challenging incumbent Leach, who is struggling to retain his seat amidst calls to resign from many major party leaders over sexual misconduct allegations.  Ashe has credentials as a community organizer, local government official, and has worked in constituent services for US Representative Madeleine Dean, of PA's 4th Congressional District.

https://www.timesherald.com/news/local/shae-ashe-to-take-on-daylin-leach-for-th-district/article_6f287dbe-a311-11e9-b838-cfb74b23866a.html

If the Dem primary field keeps expanding as fast as it is, it could create a messy primary and potentially weaken the party's general election prospects, but three candidates isn't an unusual amount for a primary, so this rating isn't changing, either.

Likely D --> Likely D

State Senate District 39:

Democrat and former nonprofit CEO Tay Waltenbaugh is challenging 3-term Republican incumbent Kim Ward, hoping to run on his years of community revitalization work in this economically struggling Southwest PA district.  

https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/supporters-gather-around-as-tay-waltenbaugh-announces-state-senate-run-in-jeannette/

Waltenbaugh looks like the kind of Democrat who could make some waves in this type of district, but I'm not moving the rating just yet.  This area has been trending to the right for years, and it would take a hell of a candidate to flip it.

Likely R --> Likely R

[Gustaf]

Martina White’s seat is likely R.

Aren't you the user who said banning conversion therapy "deprives queer people of necessary treatment to release them from suffering" or something along those lines?  I don't need you in my thread, thank you.

Yes that’s me, and no, I won’t leave

S**t stains are notoriously hard to clean out.

----------------------------

Interesting analyis, ctherainbow! Did you by any chance catch the 538 podcast on PA? It wasn't super in depth but still had some interesting bits on the state.

[ctherainbow]

Interesting analyis, ctherainbow! Did you by any chance catch the 538 podcast on PA? It wasn't super in depth but still had some interesting bits on the state.

I did not!  Thanks for letting me know about it; I’ll have to check it out.   

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.

[ctherainbow]

I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.

I hope so, too!  Then at least I’ll have a buddy to help me start the second war on Heaven.   

Did you have any thoughts about the PA State Legislative elections in 2020?

[Duke of York]

I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.

what do you have against him?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.

what do you have against him?

He betrayed my confidence and my vote, is intolerant beyond parody, and is a very violent and unstable man clearly suffering from head injuries like a certain former football player who posts on this forum that fantasizes about violence. His values are entirely determined by opposition to any form of institution responsible for stability in society just to wickedly own someone from his childhood. He will never get my vote again - just very vicious harassment if I ever see him walking down my block or if we ever decide to organize at his office. He is the single most bigoted politician in America and a narcissistic agent of chaos.

I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.

I hope so, too!  Then at least I’ll have a buddy to help me start the second war on Heaven.   

Did you have any thoughts about the PA State Legislative elections in 2020?

I am so proud to have so many names in there that end in vowels. It brings a tear to my eye, and I hope those incumbents fight the good fight and retain their disproportionate representation in the chamber. I could care less what party is in charge, but split chambers would probably be the best case scenario. My concerns generally lie with the Philadelphia local government rather than Harrisburg, but I appreciate your work.

Go incumbents except for mine! You guys are doing great!

[ctherainbow]

State House Update Districts 1-100:

District 8:

District 8's incumbent was charged with a DUI late last year, so he may get primaried by an opportunist.  We'll have to see if he makes it through the primary or not, so I'm not changing the rating yet, but even if he does, this is a very Republican district.

http://www.wfmj.com/story/40300504/pennsylvania-state-rep-nesbit-to-enter-rehab-program-avoids-trial

Safe R --> Safe R

District 9:

The GOP is already doing ad buys in this district, which indicates a readiness to go after Sainato's district next year.  Upon closer analysis, the district also appears to be trending R long-term, so I'm nudging this district further along the competitive scale.

Likely D --> Lean D

District 10:

In District 10, Republican incumbent Bernstine has shown significant crossover appeal with Democrats in the district, winning a write-in campaign for the Democratic nomination in 2018.  His Democratic(write-in) opponent from 2018 plans to challenge him again in 2020, so against a likely repeat candidate, and with the addition of his concerted crossover voter outreach, I'm bumping this race into safer territory for Bernstine.

Tilt R --> Lean R

District 18:

Gene DiGirolamo has represented this district for decades, but will be resigning from the seat to pursue a new career as a Bucks County Commissioner if he wins a commissioner seat this November.  This looks likely, as he had the second-highest vote tally of all candidates in the primary this May.  As an open seat, District 18 should be significantly more competitive, in both the special election for the rest of the term, as well as in the 2020 general.

http://election.buckscountyonline.org/

Lean R --> Tilt R

District 50:

As with District 9, early ad buys indicate that the PA GOP are planning to target this seat.  Snyder already looked vulnerable, but with confirmation that the State Republicans are planning to push for her seat, I'm scooting this prediction to the right.

Lean D --> Tilt D

District 58:

District 58's incumbent successfully ran to be a Republican nominee for the Court of Common Pleas, and he has a shot at winning in November, but we'll have to see how that election settles out.  Loss of an incumbent could make the district more "competitive", but likely still not flippable.  Not moving this district's rating until November, and until I find out who's replacing Walsh if he does move on.

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/PA/Westmoreland/95683/Web02.226438/#/

Likely R --> Likely R

District 83:

District 83's incumbent Jeff Wheeland was hit with spousal abuse allegations during the nominating process to take over Tom Marino's 12th Congressional District seat in March, and though he dropped out of that contest, I haven't heard anything about him stepping down from his State House seat.  I still don't think this seat will flip, but it's gone from a chance in hell to maybe 3.7 chances in hell if Wheeland is the party's nominee next November.  Likely R was already a stretch to the left for this district, so I'm not gonna move this rating unless the allegations lead to an arrest, or something else happens to upend the incumbent further.

https://www.dailyitem.com/news/update-gop-delegates-pick-keller-to-run-for-marino-s/article_d80c2638-3d2b-11e9-bebd-bbd30cc7d548.html

Likely R --> Likely R

[Duke of York]

I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.

what do you have against him?

He betrayed my confidence and my vote, is intolerant beyond parody, and is a very violent and unstable man clearly suffering from head injuries like a certain former football player who posts on this forum that fantasizes about violence. His values are entirely determined by opposition to any form of institution responsible for stability in society just to wickedly own someone from his childhood. He will never get my vote again - just very vicious harassment if I ever see him walking down my block or if we ever decide to organize at his office. He is the single most bigoted politician in America and a narcissistic agent of chaos.

I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.

I hope so, too!  Then at least I’ll have a buddy to help me start the second war on Heaven.   

Did you have any thoughts about the PA State Legislative elections in 2020?

I am so proud to have so many names in there that end in vowels. It brings a tear to my eye, and I hope those incumbents fight the good fight and retain their disproportionate representation in the chamber. I could care less what party is in charge, but split chambers would probably be the best case scenario. My concerns generally lie with the Philadelphia local government rather than Harrisburg, but I appreciate your work.

Go incumbents except for mine! You guys are doing great!

You have any evidence of your inflammatory remarks? Why dont you run against him then?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.

what do you have against him?

He betrayed my confidence and my vote, is intolerant beyond parody, and is a very violent and unstable man clearly suffering from head injuries like a certain former football player who posts on this forum that fantasizes about violence. His values are entirely determined by opposition to any form of institution responsible for stability in society just to wickedly own someone from his childhood. He will never get my vote again - just very vicious harassment if I ever see him walking down my block or if we ever decide to organize at his office. He is the single most bigoted politician in America and a narcissistic agent of chaos.

I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.

I hope so, too!  Then at least I’ll have a buddy to help me start the second war on Heaven.    

Did you have any thoughts about the PA State Legislative elections in 2020?

I am so proud to have so many names in there that end in vowels. It brings a tear to my eye, and I hope those incumbents fight the good fight and retain their disproportionate representation in the chamber. I could care less what party is in charge, but split chambers would probably be the best case scenario. My concerns generally lie with the Philadelphia local government rather than Harrisburg, but I appreciate your work.

Go incumbents except for mine! You guys are doing great!

You have any evidence of your inflammatory remarks? Why dont you run against him then?

He proudly posted the videos all over his Twitter feed. I don't feel an onus to dig them up when they made national news.

Why would I run for State Assembly when I would have to take a pay decrease and be forced to commute to Harrisburg constantly? I thoroughly enjoy never having to leave Center City Philadelphia except to go to New York or Boston. He is very clearly going to win anyway. The Gayborhood has spoken and they prefer this psycho to people like me and Pete Buttigieg

[Duke of York]

I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.

what do you have against him?

He betrayed my confidence and my vote, is intolerant beyond parody, and is a very violent and unstable man clearly suffering from head injuries like a certain former football player who posts on this forum that fantasizes about violence. His values are entirely determined by opposition to any form of institution responsible for stability in society just to wickedly own someone from his childhood. He will never get my vote again - just very vicious harassment if I ever see him walking down my block or if we ever decide to organize at his office. He is the single most bigoted politician in America and a narcissistic agent of chaos.

I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.

I hope so, too!  Then at least I’ll have a buddy to help me start the second war on Heaven.    

Did you have any thoughts about the PA State Legislative elections in 2020?

I am so proud to have so many names in there that end in vowels. It brings a tear to my eye, and I hope those incumbents fight the good fight and retain their disproportionate representation in the chamber. I could care less what party is in charge, but split chambers would probably be the best case scenario. My concerns generally lie with the Philadelphia local government rather than Harrisburg, but I appreciate your work.

Go incumbents except for mine! You guys are doing great!

You have any evidence of your inflammatory remarks? Why dont you run against him then?

He proudly posted the videos all over his Twitter feed. I don't feel an onus to dig them up when they made national news.

Why would I run for State Assembly when I would have to take a pay decrease and be forced to commute to Harrisburg constantly? I thoroughly enjoy never having to leave Center City Philadelphia except to go to New York or Boston. He is very clearly going to win anyway. The Gayborhood has spoken and they prefer this psycho to people like me and Pete Buttigieg

because your one vote won't do anything but running against him would. They said AOC wouldnt win but yet she is in Congress.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

because your one vote won't do anything but running against him would. They said AOC wouldnt win but yet she is in Congress.

Her alternative is bartender. Again, you are asking me to severely downgrade from a comfortable career and get lots of hate in order to run in a district where I don't represent the median voter and have to go to Harrisburg (a long way from Heaven).

What difference does it make ethically if Sims is state representative or gets kicked out and joins some abortion advocacy group? I just want the satisfaction of him being humiliated, but that doesn't involve dragging myself down into politics.

[Duke of York]

because your one vote won't do anything but running against him would. They said AOC wouldnt win but yet she is in Congress.

Her alternative is bartender. Again, you are asking me to severely downgrade from a comfortable career and get lots of hate in order to run in a district where I don't represent the median voter and have to go to Harrisburg (a long way from Heaven).

What difference does it make ethically if Sims is state representative or gets kicked out and joins some abortion advocacy group? I just want the satisfaction of him being humiliated, but that doesn't involve dragging myself down into politics.

He isn’t going to lose

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

because your one vote won't do anything but running against him would. They said AOC wouldnt win but yet she is in Congress.

Her alternative is bartender. Again, you are asking me to severely downgrade from a comfortable career and get lots of hate in order to run in a district where I don't represent the median voter and have to go to Harrisburg (a long way from Heaven).

What difference does it make ethically if Sims is state representative or gets kicked out and joins some abortion advocacy group? I just want the satisfaction of him being humiliated, but that doesn't involve dragging myself down into politics.

He isn’t going to lose

I know....evil men can go far in this profession.

[Duke of York]

because your one vote won't do anything but running against him would. They said AOC wouldnt win but yet she is in Congress.

Her alternative is bartender. Again, you are asking me to severely downgrade from a comfortable career and get lots of hate in order to run in a district where I don't represent the median voter and have to go to Harrisburg (a long way from Heaven).

What difference does it make ethically if Sims is state representative or gets kicked out and joins some abortion advocacy group? I just want the satisfaction of him being humiliated, but that doesn't involve dragging myself down into politics.

He isn’t going to lose

I know....evil men can go far in this profession.

He is far from evil. You posting what you are on an obscure forum will have zero effect on the outcome in your district next year.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

because your one vote won't do anything but running against him would. They said AOC wouldnt win but yet she is in Congress.

Her alternative is bartender. Again, you are asking me to severely downgrade from a comfortable career and get lots of hate in order to run in a district where I don't represent the median voter and have to go to Harrisburg (a long way from Heaven).

What difference does it make ethically if Sims is state representative or gets kicked out and joins some abortion advocacy group? I just want the satisfaction of him being humiliated, but that doesn't involve dragging myself down into politics.

He isn’t going to lose

I know....evil men can go far in this profession.

He is far from evil. You posting what you are on an obscure forum will have zero effect on the outcome in your district next year.

Why are you instigating a flame war? I have absolutely no intention of impacting the election in a safe seat, least of all by posting here. No other posters here live in this district. Am I not allowed to state my disapproval of a public figure on the Internet?

[ctherainbow]

Can you guys either take this to PMs or make a separate Brian Sims thread, please?

[Epaminondas]

I could care less what party is in charge

You could care less? So you do care?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I could care less what party is in charge

You could care less? So you do care?

You're on an obscure American state's local legislative elections thread. Learn American!