2020 PA State Elections Megathread

[ctherainbow]

Considering how much fun I had making a breakdown of the 2018 PA State legislative election, I thought I'd do it again for 2020, and start earlier this time that so I'm not rushing as much, and have more time to research individual races.  In addition, there are several elections for statewide office; a packed race to succeed outgoing Democratic Auditor General Eugene DePasquale, as well as the races for Attorney General and State Treasurer, which both feature Democratic incumbents running for their second terms.

Statewide Elections:


Auditor General:

Democrat:  Nina Ahmad
Democrat:  Scott Conklin
Democrat:  Rosie Davis
Democrat:  Tracie Fountain
Democrat:  Christina Hartman
Democrat:  Michael Lamb
Republican:  Timothy DeFoor

Statewide, Pennsylvania is a Tilt D state, but the office of the Auditor General has been controlled by Democrats for all but 8 years since 1961, and continually since 1997.  Now, this year should be rather interesting, as there's a crowded Democratic primary field with candidates from across the state, facing off against a lone black Republican County Controller from the Capital area.  There are also PoC on the Democratic side; Tracie Fountain is also from the Capital area, while Nina Ahmad from Philadelphia is a Bangladeshi immigrant with a powerful backstory.  Christina Hartman is from Lancaster, a key area in Pennsylvania that's been trending leftward, and she embarked on a county-by-county tour of the state earlier this year while gathering nominating petition signatures.  Also running is Michael Lamb, the current Pittsburgh City Controller, and uncle of Western PA political superstar Conor Lamb, as well as Scott Conklin, a State College area state representative.  Rounding out the primary is Rose Davis, of Monroe County, who I could not find much information on, and whose campaign website triggers a security alert in my browser.

In terms of the contested Democratic primary, from what I have been able to deduce from party "insiders", geographical weight, and petition returns, it appears that Ahmad, Hartman, and Lamb likely are the top tier candidates, and I would give the edge to Lamb, though that may just be my own pessimism around female candidates' election chances.

So overall, while I am somewhat confident that Democrats will retain this office, a face-off between DeFoor and a candidate like Conklin, who hails from a relatively non-critical portion of the state when it comes to the overall battlegrounds, could be very close.  A good portion of the results of this race will depend on the state of the presidential race in PA, so we should have a clearer picture of the race later this summer, but for now:   Tilt D.

Attorney General:

Democrat:  Josh Shapiro (I)
Republican:  Heather Heidelbaugh

In the Attorney General race, relatively popular incumbent Josh Shapiro is facing off against Republican Heather Heidelbaugh, an attorney who is also a former member of the Allegheny County council, and also a vocal critic of Trump in many key areas.  While I'm sure her criticism of Trump will help her out in the suburbs, it will likely harm her in the more blood red areas of the state.  Again, turnout for this race will be very dependent on presidential turnout, but I expect Shapiro to be able to hang on to his office for a second term.   Lean D.

State Treasurer:

Democrat:  Joseph Torsella (I)
Republican:  Stacy Garrity

The State Treasurer race features Democratic incumbent Joe Torsella, first elected in 2016, versus military veteran Stacy Garrity.  Both candidates are running on similar platforms of transparency and assisting college and vocational students in saving to make college affordable.  Garrity has called for Torsella to sign a pledge that he will serve his full term if re-elected, in a bid to cast him as a political climber using the office as a springboard to run for governor in 2024(which she may not be wrong about).  Torsella is a well-respected community leader from Philadelphia, though, and has avoided any major scandals during his first term, so he should be able to pull off a re-election win.  Lean D.


State Legislature:

The PA state legislature consists of 50 Senators, elected to 4-year terms, staggered so that only half the seats are contested per election(2020 will feature the odd-numbered seats), and 203 Representatives, each serving a 2-year term, and each up for election every cycle.  A total of 228 seats will be contested in 2020.

The current partisan makeup of the state Senate is 21D/28R/1I.  The state House is 93D/110R.

(All predictions are early projections only, and are color-coded in non-Atlas colors)

Let's take a look at the Senate seats that are up for election:

Current Partisan Composition:  21D/28R/1I



District 1:

Democrat:  Larry Farnese (I)
Democrat:  Nikil Saval

This Philadelphia district is solidly Democratic, and incumbent Farnese, who's held the seat since 2008, won his last contested general election with over 80% of the vote.  He faces a primary challenge, but no general election opponent.  Strong D.

District 3:

Democrat:  Sharif Street (I)

Another Philadelphia district, this one was the longtime seat of well-known legislator Shirley Kitchen until her retirement in 2018.  Current incumbent Sharif Street has no opponents who have filed to run against him.  Strong D.

District 5:

Democrat:  John Sabatina Jr (I)

Also in Philadelphia, District 5 encompasses more conservative areas of the city, but even the conservative areas of Philadelphia pushed incumbent Sabatina to 67% of the vote in 2016.  Sabatina has no registered opponents.  Strong D.

District 7:

Democrat:  Vincent Hughes (I)
Democrat:  Devon Cade

Partly in Philadelphia, but also snaking into Montgomery County, District 7 is also very Democratic.  The last time this district was contested, it went 85% Democrat, and should stay Democrat, even if Hughes falls in the primary.  Strong D.


District 9:

Democrat:  Brett Burman
Democrat:  John Kane
Democrat:  Robert McKinstry Jr
Republican:  Thomas Killion (I)

District 9 is going to be an exciting district to watch.  Located in Delaware and Chester counties, this district has not had a Democratic representative since 1873.  However, incumbent Killion won his first full term in the seat with only 51% of the vote in 2016, and the district had been a competitive district before then.  Given the Philly suburbs' swing since 2016, this district is the prime pickup opportunity for Dems, and three have officially filed for the primary.  Tilt D.

Democratic Challengers:
https://www.delcotimes.com/news/democratic-challenger-emerges-in-th-state-senate-district/article_4d01eac2-93a3-11e9-942f-17bf2a9d4e80.html
https://www.delcotimes.com/news/local/labor-leader-kane-eyes-dem-nod-to-challenge-killion/article_70497afe-e61e-11e9-ba86-dfb35f3d830b.html

District 11:

Democrat:  Judy Schwank (I)
Republican:  Annette Baker

A Berks County district that includes the city of Reading, District 11 represents a move back to more Democratic territory.  Incumbent Schwank was unopposed in 2016, but beat a Republican challenger in 2012 with nearly 65% of the vote.  Strong D.

District 13:

Democrat:  Craig Lehman
Democrat:  Janet Temin
Republican:  Scott Martin (I)

District 13 is further west, in Lancaster County, which is home of both famed Amish settlements and conservative farm country, as well as the artsy and relatively progressive city of Lancaster.  While it's a consistently Republican district, it's not overwhelmingly so, and previous elections have seen the Republican candidate win with around 55% of the vote.  Lean R.

District 15:

Democrat:  George Scott
Democrat:  Alvin Taylor Sr
Republican:  John DiSanto (I)

Containing Perry County and most of Dauphin County, District 15 is an extremely competitive one.  Both the 2012 election, won by a Democrat, and the 2016 election, won by a Republican, were decided by about 3 points.  While the electoral environment will likely be more favorable to Democrats than in 2016, Republican Scott Perry had a strong showing in the 2018 US Congressional race that covered the Dauphin County portion of this district.  However, with DiSanto stumbling over a property tax delinquency faux pas, and an intense Congressional race shaping up up-ballot, this district should be a close one on Election Night.  Tossup.

DiSanto Property Tax Delinquency:
https://www.pennlive.com/news/2019/08/pa-state-senator-brother-to-pay-delinquent-14k-property-tax-bill.html

District 17:

Democrat:  Daylin Leach (I)
Democrat:  Elvira Berry
Democrat:  Amanda Cappeletti
Democrat:  Parthenia Izzard
Republican:  Ellen Fisher

District 17 is located in the Philly suburb counties of Delaware and Montgomery, and is reliably Democratic(about 63%).  Incumbent Leach actually improved his margins from 2012 to 2016, but I could see him going down in the primary, as he has been accused of sexually inappropriate workplace behavior.  Likely D.

District 19:

Democrat:  Andy Dinniman (I)(Retiring)
Democrat:  Kyle Boyer
Democrat:  Carolyn Comitta
Democrat:  Don Vymazal II
Republican:  Kevin Runey
Republican:  Amber Turner

District 19 pushes us further out from the Philly metro area into Chester County, the richest county in Pennsylvania.  While not an extremely Democratic area, the district has given incumbent Dinniman 12 and 15 point victories in the past two election cycles, and despite his retirement, all indications are that this suburban district should hold for Dems.  Likely D.

District 21:

Democrat:  Shelbie Stromyer
Republican:  Scott Hutchinson (I)

A northwestern district that sprawls from Pennsylvania's northern border almost all the way down to Pittsburgh, the 21st is a reliably Republican district, and includes Clarion, Forest, and Venango counties, as well as parts of Butler and Warren counties.  The current incumbent ran unopposed in both 2012 and 2016, and though he's being challenged this cycle, I expect him to still be holding the seat in 2021.  Strong R.

District 23:

Democrat:  Jackie Baker
Republican:  Gene Yaw (I)

Another sprawling district, but further east this time, District 23 covers Bradford, Lycoming, Sullivan, and Union counties, as well as western parts of my home county, Susquehanna.  This heavily Republican district(about 2 to 1 Republican), is unlikely to flip.  Strong R.

District 25:

Democrat:  Margaret Brown
Republican:  Joe Scarnati (I)(Retiring)
Republican:  James Brown
Republican:  Cris Dush
Republican:  John Suplizio

Filling in between the 21st and 23rd districts along the state's northern border, the 25th District is arguably the most conservative of the three.  Made up of Cameron, Clinton, Elk, Jefferson, McKean, Potter, and Tioga counties, plus part of Clearfield County, this district gave current incumbent Scarnati nearly 75% of the vote in his last re-election bid.  Though he is retiring, I don't see that the seat being open will move the needle anywhere near competitiveness.  Strong R.

District 27:

Democrat:  Michelle Siegel
Republican:  John Gordner (I)

District 27 contains Columbia, Montour, Northumberland, and Snyder counties, as well as a little chunk of non-urban Luzerne County.  While not as overwhelmingly rural as some districts, 27 is devoid of any major urban centers, and is another heavily Republican district.  Incumbent Gordner has not been challenged for this seat in over a decade.  Strong R.

District 29:

Republican:  Dave Argall (I)

Containing all of Schuylkill County and non-Reading portions of Berks County, District 29 sits on the edge of competitiveness, but Argall has not drawn an apparent opponent this cycle.  Strong R.

District 31:

Democrat:  John Bosha
Democrat:  Richard Coplen
Democrat:  Shanna Danielson
Republican:  Mike Regan (I)

Stretching from the Cumberland County Harrisburg suburbs deep into York County, this south-central district avoids the city of York, and is heavily Republican.  Having given incumbent Regan almost 65% of the vote in 2016, it's likely the district will give him a repeat win in 2020.  Strong R.

District 33:

Democrat:  Richard Sterner
Republican:  Doug Mastriano (I)

Incumbent Mastriano was elected to this Adams County based district in a special election earlier this year.  The district also includes portions of Cumberland, Franklin, and York counties, and gives Republicans about 70% of the vote.  Strong R.

District 35:

Democrat:  Shaun Dougherty
Republican:  Wayne Langerholc (I)

District 35 was Democratic-controlled from its inception until 2016, when then-incumbent John Wozniak, perhaps sensing the rural/small-city Democrat extirpation that was coming, retired.  Current incumbent Langerholc flipped the district with 62% of the vote in this Bedford, Cambria, and partial Clearfield County district.  I doubt he'll be unseated in 2020.  Likely R.

District 37:

Democrat:  Pam Iovino (I)
Republican:  Jeffrey Neff
Republican:  Devlin Robinson

This swing district, which contains parts of Allegheny and Washington counties, was the site of a major coup for Pennsylvania Democrats earlier in 2019, when Pam Iovino was elected by a 4% margin to fill the vacant seat left by Republican Guy Reschenthaler, who was elected to the US House.  Having changed hands between the parties many times since its inception, this district is the GOP's best pickup opportunity, and could easily flip.  Tilt D.

District 39:

Democrat:  Tay Waltenbaugh
Republican:  Kim Ward (I)

Encompassing most of Westmoreland County in the southwestern part of the state, this district was a longtime Democratic district until the 2000s.  Incumbent Ward's last seriously contested election was in 2008, when she was first elected with 54% of the vote.  However, this area has trended Republican since then, and I don't expect her to lose in 2020.  Likely R.

Democratic Challenger:
https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/supporters-gather-around-as-tay-waltenbaugh-announces-state-senate-run-in-jeannette/

District 41:

Democrat:  Anthony Deloreto
Republican:  Joe Pittman (I)

District 41 consists of Armstrong and Indiana counties, plus parts of Butler and Westmoreland counties. The district should stay in GOP hands, as it did in the special election earlier this year, since about two-thirds of the district votes Republican.  Strong R.

District 43:

Democrat:  Jay Costa Jr (I)
Democrat:  William Brittain

This heavily Democratic Allegheny County district includes parts of the city of Pittsburgh, and has been sending Jay Costa to the state capitol since I was 3 years old(1996).  There's no indication that's going to change in 2020.  Strong D.

District 45:

Democrat:  Jim Brewster (I)
Republican:  Nicole Ziccarelli

Another Allegheny County district that also includes a small part of Westmoreland County, this district is far less Democratic than the neighboring District 43.  Given that the incumbent only won election to the seat with 53% in 2010, it really surprises me that he hasn't been challenged in either of his two elections since then.  He's had time to get entrenched now, but if he draws a strong challenger and the up-ballot GOP performs well in Western PA, this race could be the State Senate GOP's second-best pickup opportunity, though it's probably a longshot.  Likely D.

District 47:

Democrat:  John Krizan III
Republican:  Elder Vogel (I)

Squashed against the Ohio border, District 47 includes Lawrence County, as well as parts of Beaver and Butler counties.  While not overwhelmingly Republican, this district has generally voted close to 58% GOP in recent elections, so I expect it to be a hold for Vogel.  Likely R.

District 48:

(Special election January 14th)

Republican:  Dave Arnold - 64.7%(W)  
Democrat:  Michael Schroeder - 35.3%

In a seat that hadn't been scheduled to be in play until 2022, the resignation of former State Senator Mike Folmer over child porn charges threw this seat into contention, with both parties scrambling to field candidates for the January 14th special election.  This badly gerrymandered district encompasses Lebanon County, as well as portions of Dauphin and York Counties, and is a very Republican district, voting nearly two-thirds Republican in 2018.  It did not buck this trend in 2020, electing Republican Lebanon County District Attorney Dave Arnold to the seat.  Republican Hold

District 49:

Democrat:  Andre Horton
Democrat:  Julie Slomski
Republican:  Daniel Laughlin (I)

This district is located in Erie County, including the city of Erie, and has swung between the major parties several times.  This swing again occurred in 2016, when the current incumbent defeated then-incumbent Sean Wiley, who had won the seat with 60% of the vote in 2012.  This district is a critical bellweather for how 2020 Election Night in PA will go, and I expect it to be bitterly contested.  Tossup.

Summary of District Analysis:

(Map will be added)

Strong D: 1, 3, 5, 7, 11, 43
Likely D: 17, 19, 45
Lean D:
Tilt D: 9, 37
Tossup: 15, 49
Tilt R:
Lean R: 13
Likely R: 35, 39, 47
Strong R: 21, 23, 25, 27, 29, 31, 33, 41



Potential State Senate 2021:

Good Dem Result: 24/25/1
Neutral Result: 22/27/1
Good GOP Result: 20/29/1

The fight for the PA State Senate looked to be vicious this cycle, as there were exactly enough very competitive seats up for re-election to determine control of the Senate, before Democratic State Senator John Yudichak's defection from the party in November 2019 to become an independent.  As of now, the best Democrats likely have the ability to do is hold District 37 and flip Districts 9, 15, and 49.  If Republicans hold the Lean R District 13, they keep control of the Senate, and if the night goes well for them, they could expand their majority to 29 seats.  It looks like Republicans will keep at least narrow control of the state senate in the 2020 cycle.

Chance Of Control:  10%D/90%R

[ctherainbow]

The entire State House is up for election:

Current Partisan Composition:  93D/110R



District 1:

Democrat:  Patrick Harkins (I)

Very Democratic Erie city district.  Strong D.

District 2:

Democrat:  Robert Merski (I)

Very Democratic Erie city district.  Strong D.

District 3:

Democrat:  Ryan Bizzarro (I)
Republican:  Greg Hayes

Relatively Democratic Erie County district.  Strong D.

District 4:

Republican:  Curtis Sonney (I)

Relatively Republican Erie County district.  Strong R.

District 5:

Democrat:  Graham Gonzales
Republican:  Barry Jozwiak (I)

Relatively Republican Berks County district.  Likely R.

District 6:

Democrat:  Matthew Ferrence
Republican:  Bradley Roae (I)

Relatively Republican Crawford and Erie County district.  Strong R.

District 7:

Democrat:  Mark Longietti (I)

Recently uncontested Mercer County district.  Rating only indicative of uncontested status; needs more research.  Strong D.

District 8:

(Special election March 17th)

Democrat:  Phillip Heasley
Republican:  Tedd Nesbit (I)(Resigning January 2020)
Republican:  Timothy Bonner
Republican:  Scott Jaillet

Very Republican Mercer/Butler County district.  Nesbit was charged with a DUI late last year after the election, so we'll have to see if he makes it through the primary.  If he does, this district might be more competitive, but I honestly don't see it going blue even with a criminal GOP candidate.  (Edit: He ran for and won a judicial position, so he's vacating the seat in January 2020.  Should still be a GOP hold).  Strong R.

Retirement:
http://www.butlereagle.com/article/20191202/NEWS12/712029884

District 9:

Democrat:  Chris Sainato (I)
Republican:  Carol Ryan

Democratic-leaning Lawrence County district.  Republicans have already started targeted ad buys in his district, indicating that they intend to hit Sainato hard in 2020.  Lean D.

District 10:

Democrat:  Kolbe Cole
Republican:  Aaron Bernstine (I)

Swingy Beaver/Butler/Lawrence County district.  Was held by Democrats from 1975 to 2016, when it was flipped by the current incumbent.  Bernstine managed to snag the Democratic nomination as well as the Republican nomination in 2018 due to a successful write-in campaign, so he clearly has some crossover appeal, and may be harder to unseat.  Lean R.

District 11:

Republican:  Marci Mustello (I)

Relatively Republican Butler County district, where former incumbent Brian Ellis was replaced in a special election after allegations of sexual assault.  Likely R.

District 12:  

Republican:  Daryl Metcalfe (I)

Another relatively Republican Butler County district, this one represented by infamous heterosexual Daryl Metcalfe, who you may know from his meltdown over another legislator touching his arm, and who has called fellow representative Brian Sims a “lying homosexual”.  Likely R.

District 13:

Republican:  John Lawrence (I)

District 13 contains portions of Lancaster and Chester counties, and leans Republican.  Lean R.

District 14:

Republican:  Jim Marshall (I)

A weirdly shaped Beaver/Butler County district, this one looks like a safe Republican hold.  Strong R.

District 15:

Republican:  Joshua Kail (I)

District 15 covers portions of Beaver and Washington counties, and is Republican enough that its new GOP incumbent shouldn't be ousted.  Strong R.

District 16:

Democrat:  Robert Matzie (I)

Relatively Democratic Allegheny/Beaver County district.  Likely D.

District 17:

Republican:  Parke Wentling (I)

Very Republican Crawford/Erie/Lawrence/Mercer County district.  Strong R.

District 18:

Republican:  Gene DiGirolamo (I)(Resigning January 2020)

A Bucks County swing district that before last cycle, hadn't been contested in a decade.  However, incumbent DiGirolamo, who has represented the district since 1995, will be retiring to become a Bucks County commissioner, which should make the district significantly more competitive.  Tilt D.

Incumbent retiring to take commissioner seat: http://www.buckscountyvotes.org/

District 19:

Democrat:  Jake Wheatley Jr. (I)

Extremely Democratic Pittsburgh city district.  Strong D.

District 20:

Democrat:  Adam Ravenstahl (I)

Very Democratic Pittsburgh-based Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 21:

Democrat:  Sara Innamorato (I)

Very Democratic Pittsburgh-based Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 22:

Democrat:  Peter Schweyer (I)

Very Democratic Allentown district.  Strong D.

District 23:

Democrat:  Dan Frankel (I)

Very Democratic Pittsburgh city district.  Strong D.

District 24:

Democrat:  Edward Gainey (I)

Very Democratic, majority Pittsburgh, Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 25:

Democrat:  Brandon Markosek (I)

Democratic-leaning Allegheny County district.  Likely D.

District 26:

Republican:  Timothy Hennessey (I)

A Chester/Montgomery County district, this is a very swingy area.  Incumbent Henessey fended off his latest challenger by 5 points last cycle, but his margins tightened a bunch, and he'd be right to be worried if Dems have another good cycle in 2020.  Tilt R.

District 27:

Democrat:  Daniel Deasy Jr (I)

Very Democratic Pittsburgh-based Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 28:

Republican:  Mike Turzai (I)(Retiring)

Republican-leaning Allegheny County district.  Turzai, current Speaker of the State House, had a strong challenge last cycle, and has inexplicably decided to retire.  I imagine the state GOP will focus on this race to avoid the embarrassment of losing the outgoing Speaker's seat.  Lean R.

Retirement notice:  https://www.wgal.com/article/speculation-grows-about-pennsylvania-house-speaker-mike-turzais-future/30644084

District 29:

Republican:  Meghan Schroeder (I)

A northern Bucks County district, District 29 is a swing district.  Current incumbent Schroeder only pulled out a four-point win last cycle, so she'll have to work to hold this district again.  Tilt R.

District 30:

Republican:  Lori Mizgorski (I)

A swing Allegheny County district that has the potential to flip.  Like District 29, the current incumbent won by four points last cycle.  Tilt R.

District 31:

Democrat:  Perry Warren (I)

Another Bucks County district.  This one was really tight in 2016 as an open district, but swung 10 points Dem in 2018, so unless the night goes very well for the GOP, I don't expect it to flip.  Lean D.

District 32:

Democrat:  Anthony DeLuca (I)

Very Democratic Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 33:

Democrat:  Frank Dermody (I)

A swingy Allegheny/Westmoreland County district; incumbent Dermody has almost continually faced strong challenges, but should be able to hold the seat this cycle.  Lean D.

District 34:

Democrat:  Summer Lee (I)

Very Democratic partial Pittsburgh Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 35:

Democrat:  Austin Davis (I)

Relatively Democratic Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 36:

Democrat:  Harry Readshaw III (I)(Retiring)

Very Democratic Pittsburgh-based Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

Retirement announcement:  https://www.wtae.com/article/pennsylvania-state-rep-harry-readshaw-of-pittsburgh-will-retire/30433071

District 37:

Republican:  Mindy Fee (I)

Very Republican Lancaster County district(including HersheyPark).  Mindy Fee garnered over 70% of the vote in her last three contested elections, and the area is full of upper class Republicans.  Strong R.

District 38:

Democrat:  William Kortz II (I)

Very Democratic Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 39:

Republican:  Michael Puskaric (I)

Partial Allegheny/Washington County district that leans Republican, but not by a whole lot.  Lean R.

District 40:

Republican:  Natalie Mihalik (I)

Partial Allegheny/Washington County district.  Relatively Republican, but not overwhelmingly so.  Likely R.

District 41:

Republican:  Brett Miller (I)

Relatively Republican Lancaster County district, that saw its tightest margin of victory in a decade last cycle.  This is south-central PA Amish country, though, so I don't see it being elastic enough to flip.  Lean R.

District 42:

Democrat:  Dan Miller (I)

Relatively Democratic Allegheny County district.  Likely D.

District 43:

Republican:  Keith Greiner (I)

Another Lancaster County Amish country district, but this one has a harder right lean.  Strong R.

District 44:

Republican:  Valerie Gaydos (I)
Democrat:  Michele Knoll

Slightly Republican-leaning Allegheny County district.  This race was far closer than I expected last cycle, with the current incumbent winning by only four points.  If Dems improve their performance at all this upcoming cycle, this seat could flip, but will 2018 candidate Michele Knoll be able to pull it off this cycle?  Tilt R.

Democratic Challenger:
https://sewickley.triblive.com/user-submitted-content/michele-knoll-announces-candidacy/

District 45:

Democrat:  Anita Astorino Kulik (I)

Very Democratic Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 46:

Republican:  Jason Ortitay (I)

In this swingy Allegheny/Washington County district, incumbent Jason Ortitay has a somewhat moderate profile, and fended off his 2018 challenger by more than I expected.  Lean R.

District 47:

Republican:  Keith Gillespie (I)

York County district which leans hard enough Republican that Gillespie shouldn't face much of a challenge getting re-elected.  Strong R.

District 48:

Republican:  Timothy O'Neal (I)

Washington County district that is pretty moderate.  However, Incumbent O'Neal had an impressive showing last cycle, so it looks like he'd need a strong challenger or serious national headwinds to be in danger.  Lean R.

District 49:

Republican:  Bud Cook (I)

Fayette/Washington County swing district that was decided by exactly 11 votes last cycle.  This has to be a top target for the state Dem party, and I expect them to recruit a good challenger and put money into this race.  Tossup.

District 50:

Democrat:  Pam Snyder (I)

In this Southwest PA district that covers Green County and parts of Fayette/Washington County, incumbent Snyder has managed to hang onto this rural/ancestral Dem area for the last few cycles, including a six-point win in 2016.  However, with Trump already winning her district's counties in 2016 by hefty margins, expect significant pressure on Snyder.  Tilt D.

Summary of District Analysis:

Strong D: 1, 2, 3, 7, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 27, 32, 34, 35, 36, 38, 45, 70, 77, 95, 96, 103, 113, 118, 126, 127, 132, 135, 136, 140, 149, 153, 154, 159, 164, 166, 172, 173, 174, 175, 179, 180, 181, 182, 184, 185, 186, 188, 190, 191, 192, 194, 195, 197, 198, 200, 201, 202, 203
Likely D: 16, 25, 42, 55, 74, 112, 114, 121, 133, 141, 148
Lean D: 9, 31, 33, 115, 146, 150, 156, 157, 161, 177
Tilt D: 18, 50, 61, 72, 119, 155, 158, 163
Tossup: 49, 53, 131, 143, 144, 151, 160, 162, 165, 167, 178
Tilt R: 18, 26, 29, 30, 44, 71, 105, 160, 168, 170
Lean R: 10, 13, 28, 39, 41, 46, 48, 51, 58, 76, 87, 104, 106, 120, 129, 137, 142, 145, 147, 152, 176, 183
Likely R: 5, 11, 12, 40, 52, 54, 56, 62, 73, 79, 83, 88, 97, 122, 123, 128, 134, 138, 171, 187, 189, 199
Strong R: 4, 6, 8, 14, 15, 17, 37, 43, 47, 57, 59, 60, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 75, 78, 80, 81, 82, 84, 85, 86, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 116, 117, 124, 125, 130, 139, 169, 193, 196



Potential State House 2021:

Good Dem Result: 108/95
Neutral Result: 93/110
Good GOP Result: 82/121

While PA Democrats have only a minor chance at flipping the State Senate, they have a better chance of flipping the State House, though there are a large number of recently flipped swing House districts to defend in Southeast PA, and other GOP seats that looked vulnerable last cycle have incumbents that successfully dug in and slugged it out to victory in 2018.  On the plus side for Dems, there are fewer rural/ancestral Dem seats to defend.  Both parties will likely be focusing on the Philly burbs again, because the path to expansion of either party's House contingent lies primarily through Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware, and Chester counties, with a few other seats across the rest of the Commonwealth.

Chance Of Control:  35%D/65%R

[ctherainbow]

District 51:

Republican:  Matthew Dowling (I)

A partial Fayette/Somerset County district in Southwest PA.  Current incumbent Dowling knocked out the former Democratic incumbent in 2016, and actually managed to improve his margin of victory in 2018.  This seat may be gone for the Dems at this point.  Lean R.

District 52:

Republican:  Ryan Warner (I)

Fayette/Westmoreland County district that has only leaned Republican in the past.  However, incumbent Warner keeps improving his performance in this seat, including a 22-point victory last cycle.  Likely R.

District 53:

Democrat:  Steven Malagari (I)

Montgomery County district that was a nailbiter last cycle.  The district had been sending its former Republican incumbent to Harrisburg with about 60% of the vote, but after he retired, the Democratic candidate to replace him, with the help of a Libertarian, managed to squeak out a 51.1% victory.  The outcome of this seat is likely going to hinge on how well up-ballot Dems perform on election night.  Tossup.

District 54:

Republican:  Robert Brooks (I)

Yet another Allegheny/Westmoreland County district, this one has a Republican lean that should keep it on the GOP side of the aisle.  Last cycle knocked the Republican below 60% of the vote for the first time in a long time, but it would take a complete blowout to flip this seat.  Likely R.

District 55:

Democrat:  Joseph Petrarca (I)

Armstrong/Indiana/Westmoreland County district that leans Democratic enough downballot that it should be a hold for Petrarca.  However, the state GOP is targeting him with early ad buys, and this district, although trending a teensy bit blue, could present a challenge for Petrarca if the day goes south for Dems.  Lean D.

District 56:

Republican:  George Dunbar (I)

Westmoreland County district that could be competitive with an A-list challenger and wave year, but is otherwise pretty safe.  Likely R.

District 57:

Republican:  Eric Nelson (I)

Solidly Republican Westmoreland County district.  Nelson has faced challenges every recent election cycle, and easily defeated them all.  He should win with no problem.  Strong R.

District 58:

Republican:  Justin Walsh (I)(Resigning January 2020)
Democrat:  Ken Bach
Democrat:  Robert Prah

District 58 is another Westmoreland County district, that's more competitive than District 57.  While the district was represented by a Democrat until 2016, incumbent Walsh managed to improve his share of the vote from 2016 to 2018, albeit against the same challenger.  However, he is resigning, so the seat will be open next year.  Lean R.

Retirement:  https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/westmoreland-could-add-special-election-for-state-house-seat-to-aprils-primary-ballot/

District 59:

Republican:  Mike Reese (I)

Somerset/Westmoreland County district that is solidly conservative.  Strong R.

District 60:

Republican:  Jeffrey Pyle (I)

Heavily Republican Armstrong/Butler/Indiana County district.  Strong R.

District 61:

Democrat:  Liz Hanbidge (I)

A Montgomery County district, this is another one where the Democratic candidate in 2018 overperformed expectations.  Current incumbent Hanbidge ousted an 8-term Republican incumbent by about the national predicted GCB margin.  She could have a harder time holding the seat this cycle, and I expect the state Republican Party to target the seat, but I'll give her the edge for now. Tilt D.

District 62:

Republican:  James Struzzi II (I)

Very Republican Indiana County district that has had a few Democratic representatives in the past, but still doesn't look competitive yet this cycle.  Likely R.

District 63:

Republican:  Donna Oberlander (I)

Extremely Republican rural district encompassing parts of Armstrong and Forest counties, plus all of Clarion County.  Strong R.

District 64:

Republican:  R. Lee James (I)

District 64 covers part of Butler County and all of Venango County, and is rural and very Republican.  Strong R.

District 65:

Republican:  Kathy Rapp (I)

Heavily Republican district that covers parts of Crawford and Forest counties, and all of Warren County.  Strong R.

District 66:

Republican:  Cris Dush (I)(Retiring at end of term)

Rural Western PA district covering part of Indiana County and all of Jefferson County.  Extremely Republican.  Strong R.

Incumbent retiring: https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/dush-announces-retirement-in-2020-third-lawmaker-to-call-it-quits-this-november/

District 67:

Republican:  Martin Causer (I)

Northern rural district encompassing Cameron and McKean counties, as well as part of Potter County.  Extremely Republican.  Strong R.

District 68:

Republican:  Clint Owlett (I)

This rural northeast/northcentral district that includes parts of Bradford/Potter County, plus all of Tioga County, regularly gives Republican candidates 3 to 1 vote margins.  Strong R.

District 69:

Republican:  Carl Metzgar (I)

Pennsylvania's sexiest district, District 69 covers parts of Bedford and Somerset counties in Southern PA.  Apparently in Southcentral PA, sexy also means Republican, because nearly 80% of votes were GOP in 2018.  Strong R.

District 70:

Democrat:  Matthew Bradford (I)

Montgomery County district that includes Norristown.  Incumbent Bradford has easily fended off his most recent challengers.  Strong D.

District 71:

Republican:  James Rigby (I)

Partial Cambria and Somerset County district in Western PA that includes the city of Johnstown.  Former Democratic incumbent Bryan Barbin pulled a great 18-point winning margin in 2016 in this ancestral Dem area, then got knocked out last cycle by 5 points.  It might be Pennsyltucky pessimism on my part, but I think this seat has a good chance to stay red in 2020, if not by much.  Tilt R.

District 72:

Democrat:  Frank Burns (I)

Also located in Cambria County, District 72 has broken comfortably for incumbent Burns in the past, but like District 71, showed signs of significant change in 2018.  Burns managed to hold on, but there's blood in the water, and early ad buys by the state GOP point to this seat being a target.  Tilt D.

District 73:

Republican:  Thomas Sankey (I)

Relatively Republican Cambria and Clearfield County district that used to be represented by a Democrat, but when Republican incumbent Sankey was redistricted into the 73rd after 2012, that Democratic incumbent retired and ceded the seat.  Likely R.

District 74:

Democrat:  Dan Williams (I)

A Southeastern PA district in Chester County.  Former Republican incumbent Harry Lewis Jr managed to cling to his seat with narrow margins for several cycles, but he retired before last cycle, and current incumbent Williams flipped the seat with over 60% of the vote.  Likely D.

District 75:

Republican:  Matt Gabler (I)

Heavily Republican Elk County and partial Clearfield County Central PA district.  Strong R.

District 76:

Republican:  Stephanie Borowicz (I)

Covering portions of Centre County and all of Clinton County, District 76 is a mostly rural district that flipped by 8 points last cycle, and is the type of seat flip that helped turn 2018 into an underwhelming performance for PA House Democrats.  It's also the type of seat that's not super likely to flip back given rural trends.  Lean R.

District 77:

Democrat:  H. Scott Conklin (I)

Relatively Democratic Centre County district that includes the city of State College.  Strong D.

District 78:

Republican:  Jesse Topper (I)

A Southcentral PA district that includes parts of Bedford/Franklin County, as well as the entirety of Fulton County.  This is an extremely Republican(80%) district.  Strong R.

District 79:

Republican:  Louis Schmitt Jr. (I)

A Blair County district that includes the city of Altoona; this seat has enough registered Dems to make it look competitive on paper.  However, given Central PA Republican trends, I don't see this district being in play without an extremely favorable environment and strong challenger.  Likely R.

District 80:

Republican:  James Gregory (I)

Also in Blair County, District 80 is much more solidly Republican.  Strong R.

District 81:

Republican:  Richard Irvin (I)

A Central PA district that includes portions of Centre and Mifflin Counties, plus Huntingdon County.  Heavily Republican.  Strong R.

District 82:

Republican:  Johnathan Hershey (I)

Another Central PA district, encompassing Franklin and Mifflin County in part, and the entirety of Juniata County.  District 82 is heavily Republican.  Strong R.

District 83:

Republican:  Jeff Wheeland (I)

A Lycoming County district that includes the city of Williamsport, this was a Democratic seat for six years before the 2014 election, when then-incumbent Richard Mirabito was ousted by ten points by current incumbent Jeff Wheeland.  Wheeland held the seat with 66% of the vote last cycle, but during the nominating process for the successor to Tom Marino in the 12th Congressional District, Wheeland dropped out after allegations of spousal abuse were brought to light.  Will this hurt him enough to flip the seat in 2020?  Doubtful.  Likely R.

District 84:

Republican:  Garth Everett (I)

Composed of the rural parts of Lycoming County, plus part of Union County, the last contested election here saw incumbent Everett getting nearly 80% of the vote.  Strong R.

District 85:

Republican:  David Rowe (I)

A Central PA partial Snyder and Union County district, District 85 gave new incumbent David Rowe nearly 63% of the vote in a special election two weeks ago, against an opponent with better electoral name recognition.  I don't see this district flipping.  Safe R.

District 86:

Republican:  Mark K. Keller (I)

Heavily Republican district including all of Perry County and a portion of Cumberland County.  Strong R.

District 87:

Republican:  Greg Rothman (I)

Right across the river from the city of Harrisburg, District 87 is a Cumberland County district that leans a bit farther right than you might expect from suburbs, but there is a significant difference between West Shore and East Shore Harrisburg communities.  Incumbent Rothman has managed to explain his way through multiple assault and conspiracy charges from his past, and if I were his challenger, I'd hammer those home.  However, while not likely to be a blowout, incumbent Rothman is still a clear favorite to win right now.  Lean R.

District 88:

Republican:  Sheryl Delozier (I)

You don't have to travel far to move on to District 88; also a West Shore Harrisburg district, this district has the same general electoral demographics as District 87, but is just a few points farther right.  Likely R.

District 89:  

Republican:  Rob Kauffman (I)

Very Republican Franklin County district.  Strong R.

District 90:

Republican:  Paul Schemel (I)

Very Republican Franklin County district.  Strong R.

District 91:

Republican:  Dan Moul (I)

A relatively safe Republican district in Adams County, surrounding the iconic town of Gettysburg.  Strong R.

District 92:

Republican:  Dawn Keefer (I)

Very solidly Republican partial Cumberland and York County district, located along the Susquehanna.  Strong R.

District 93:

Republican:  Mike Jones (I)

Another York County district, also heavily Republican.  Strong R.

District 94:

Republican:  Stanley Saylor (I)

We're still in York County!  District 94, like most areas in York County, is solidly Republican.  Strong R.

District 95:

Democrat:  Carol Hill-Evans (I)

Remember how I just said most areas of York County were solidly Republican?  Except the city of York, which is where District 95 draws its hefty Democratic vote margin.  Strong D.

District 96:

Democrat:  Michael Sturla (I)

Same thing applies to this Lancaster County district, which unlike the surrounding rural areas, contains the city of Lancaster.  Strong D.

District 97:

Republican:  Steven Mentzer (I)

A non-Lancaster city Lancaster County district.  Same York/Lancaster County rules apply, though last cycle saw a more tightened vote margin than other area non-city districts.  Likely R.

District 98:

Republican:  David Hickernell (I)

Primarily a Lancaster County district, plus one Dauphin County township, this is another very Republican district.  Strong R.

District 99:

Republican:  David Zimmerman (I)

Still in Lancaster County.  Still not Lancaster city.  Still overwhelmingly Republican.  Strong R.

District 100:

Republican:  Bryan Cutler (I)

Surprise, surprise, it's another Lancaster County district.  The last Democratic challenger lost by 44 points.  Strong R.

[ctherainbow]

District 101:

Republican:  Francis Ryan (I)

Well, we've moved out of Lancaster County into Lebanon County, but the demographics are pretty much the same(no offense to anyone in Lancaster/Lebanon/York County, but ya'll pretty homogeneous).  Strong R.

District 102:

Republican:  Russell Diamond (I)

Heavily Republican Lebanon County district.  Surprised yet?  Strong R.

District 103:

Democrat:  Patty Kim (I)

This Dauphin County district includes the city of Harrisburg and some of its closest suburbs.  Before last cycle, the seat hadn't been contested by Republicans since at least 2010, for good reason.  2018's GOP candidate was blown out by 68%.  Strong D.

District 104:

Republican:  Susan Helm (I)
Democrat:  Jesse Gantt

This partial Dauphin and Lebanon County district has been represented by a Republican for decades.  Current incumbent Susan Helm doesn't usually win by hefty margins, but she does consistently win.  This district will likely be a lot more competitive when it's open.  Lean R.

District 105:

Republican:  Andrew Lewis (I)

Another Dauphin County district, District 105 was EXTREMELY competitive last cycle as an open seat.  It is a Republican-leaning district, but if new incumbent Lewis draws another tough challenger, this could be close again.  Tilt R.

District 106:

Republican:  Thomas Mehaffie (I)

My old Dauphin County district back when I was in college, District 106 is another Republican-leaning district; despite covering suburban areas, which in PA are usually swing areas, this district's suburbs are more classically “American Dream” type suburbs, with lower white-collar type, two kids, one dog, family goes to church every Sunday, white picket fence with a pool in the backyard, Republican-voting families.  Lean R.

District 107:

Republican:  Kurt Masser (I)

Partial Columbia and Northumberland County, plus Montour County, district.  Solidly Republican.  Strong R.

District 108:

Republican:  Lynda Schlegel Culver (I)

Very Republican partial Northumberland and Snyder County district.  Strong R.

District 109:

Republican:  David Millard (I)

Very Republican Columbia County district.  Strong R.

District 110:

Republican:  Tina Pickett (I)

NEPA district covering the western part of Susquehanna County, part of Bradford County, and all of Sullivan County, this district borders my home district.  Before 2018, Tina Pickett hadn't been challenged for her seat in a decade, and for good reason.  This district is overwhelmingly Republican.  Strong R.

District 111:

Republican:  Jonathan Fritz (I)

My home district, covering most of Susquehanna and Wayne counties; District 111 is very Republican.  Although there are a few precinct enclaves where Democrats can almost manage 50% of the vote, I don't expect to have a Democrat representing me this upcoming term.  Strong R.

District 112:

Democrat:  Kyle Mullins (I)

This Lackwanna County district, formerly held by dueling Democratic representatives Kevin Haggerty and Frank Farina, leans heavily Democratic.  Though 2016 saw Republican challenger Ernest Lemoncelli draw within 6 points, he lost by over 30 last election.  Likely D.

District 113:

Democrat:  Martin Flynn (I)

Very Democratic Scranton-based Lackawanna County district.  Strong D.

District 114:

Democrat:  Bridget Kosierowski (I)

North-end Lackawanna County district formerly represented by well-known(locally) Sid Michaels Kavulich.  While this district has the potential to be somewhat competitive, new incumbent Kosierowski had a strong showing in the special election to replace Kavulich.  Lean D.

District 115:

Democrat:  Maureen Madden (I)

A slightly Democratic-leaning Monroe County district that includes the artsy town of Stroudsburg, this district has been the scene of bitter partisan and personal struggle the past three election cycles.  After David Parker became the first Republican representative the district had since 1969, beating Maureen Madden by 5 points in 2014, Madden turned around and took the seat from him in 2016, beating him by 4 points.  Parker tried to get the seat back in 2018, but Madden pulled north of 60% of the vote to hold him off.  Lean D.

District 116:

Republican:  Tarah Toohill (I)

Relatively Republican Luzerne County district.  Strong R.

District 117:

Republican:  Karen Boback (I)

Covering parts of Lackawanna and Luzerne County, plus all of Wyoming County, Boback represents a very strongly Republican district.  Strong R.

District 118:

Democrat:  Mike Carroll (I)

Relatively Democratic district covering parts of Lackawanna and Luzerne counties.  Strong D.

District 119:

Democrat:  Gerald Mullery (I)

Luzerne County district that that votes majority Democrat, but tightened last cycle to about a 6 point win for incumbent Mullery.  Your district trending away from you in a wave year for your party is not a great sign.  Tilt D.

District 120:

Republican:  Aaron Kaufer (I)

Slightly Republican-leaning Luzerne County district.  This was a serious recruiting miss for Democrats in 2018 when they failed to contest this district; the seat was held by Democrats as recently as 2014, and should be competitive with a decent recruit.  Lean R.

District 121:

Democrat:  Eddie Day Pashinski (I)

This Luzerne County district, which includes the city of Wilkes-Barre, is a Democratic-leaning district, but could be flipped under the right circumstances.  It depends on what kind of opponent Pashinski draws.  Likely D.

District 122:

Republican:  Doyle Heffley (I)

Covering most of Carbon County, this District leans Republican, but the GOP usually doesn't reach 60% of the vote here.  The exception to that was last cycle, though, when Heffley's vote percentage increased substantially.  This district is trending away from competitiveness.  Likely R.

District 123:

Democrat:  Neal Goodman (I)(Retiring at end of term)

Partial Schuylkill County district that's been uncontested for a surprisingly long time, given that Schuylkill County isn't exactly a liberal bastion.  That should change in 2020, barring a complete GOP recruiting failure, as longtime Democratic incumbent Goodamn has announced his retirement.  Likely R.

Incumbent retiring: https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/democratic-rep-neal-goodman-is-the-latest-legislative-retirement/

District 124:

Republican:  Jerry Knowles (I)

Relatively Republican partial Berks, Carbon, and Schuylkill County district.  Strong R.

District 125:

Republican:  Mike Tobash (I)

Very Republican Dauphin/Schuylkill County district.  Strong R.

District 126:

Democrat:  Mark Rozzi (I)

Heavily Democratic Berks County district, including parts of the city of Reading.  Strong D.

District 127:

Democrat:  Thomas Caltagirone (I)

Incumbent Caltagirone has represented this Reading-based Berks County district since 1977.  Given the partisan makeup of the district, that's not likely to change anytime soon.  Strong D.

District 128:

Republican:  Mark Gillen (I)

A partial Berks and Lancaster County, non-city district, this district is only a little less reliably Republican than you'd expect given Central PA rural demographics. Likely R.

District 129:

Republican:  Jim Cox (I)

Another partial Berks and Lancaster County district, this one has more of a Democratic margin than District 128, and the Democratic challenger in 2018 put up an impressive performance.  Lean R.

District 130:

Republican:  David Maloney (I)

A heavily Republican partial Berks County district.  Strong R.

District 131:

Republican:  Justin Simmons (I)(Retiring at end of term)
Democrat:  Kevin Branco

A Southeastern PA Lehigh, Montgomery, and Northampton County district.  The 2014 and 2016 elections here were not very competitive, but the 2018 race pulled Simmons down to a 6-point win, and past elections like 2012 saw Simmons barely squeaking over 50%.  With SEPA drifting left and Simmons retiring, this seat will be a competitive one in 2020.  Tossup.

Retirement:  https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-house-openings-2020-election-20191220-u3gpfv7llvgbfa2uutqep3qxca-story.html

District 132:

Democrat:  Michael Schlossberg (I)

This minority-majority partial Lehigh County district includes a good chunk of the city of Allentown, and is heavily Democratic.  Strong D.

District 133:

Democrat:  Jeanne McNeill (I)

Relatively Democratic partial Lehigh County district that includes portions of the city of Bethlehem.  Likely D.

District 134:

Republican:  Ryan Mackenzie (I)

A partial Berks and Lehigh County district that has been almost competitive in some past elections, especially in 2018.  However, overall this district has a significant Republican advantage.  Likely R.

District 135:

Democrat:  Steve Samuelson (I)

Heavily Democratic partial Northampton County district that includes parts of Bethlehem city.  Strong D.

District 136:

Democrat:  Robert Freeman (I)

Relatively Democratic partial Northampton County district that includes the county seat city of Easton.  Strong D.

District 137:

Republican:  Joe Emrick (I)

Another partial Northampton County district, this one was represented by a Democrat up until 2010, but since then has elected a Republican representative by pretty comfortable margins.  This is almost a Likely R seat, but the Dem challenger turned in a good performance last cycle, so I'm going to rate it as a little bit more vulnerable for now.  Lean R.

District 138:

Republican:  Marcia Hahn (I)(Retiring at end of term)

Also a partial Northampton County district, this one is similar to the prior district, and is in much the same situation, but a few more points to the right.  Likely R.

Retirement:  https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-house-openings-2020-election-20191220-u3gpfv7llvgbfa2uutqep3qxca-story.html

District 139:

Republican:  Michael Peifer (I)

A partial Wayne and Pike County district that is relatively Republican.  Strong R.

District 140:

Democrat:  John Galloway (I)

Heavily Democratic partial Bucks County district.  Strong D.

District 141:

Democrat:  Tina Davis (I)

This Bucks County district has gradually trended Democratic over the last five elections, with the exception of last cycle, when Davis' husband was charged with housing fraud.  She still won, though, and a generic Dem might do even better.  Likely D.

District 142:

Republican:  Frank Farry (I)

A more northern Bucks County district, this district has had only had one term of Democratic control since 1969.  The Republican lean of this district should keep it in in Farry's hands, despite his margins shrinking last year as the Greater Philly suburbs drifted towards the Dems.  Lean R.

District 143:

Democrat:  Wendy Ullman (I)

Another northern Bucks County district, this seat was very competitive last cycle, when current incumbent Ullman won the open seat with 50.8% of the vote.  This one will be a nailbiter in 2020.  Tossup.

District 144:

Republican:  F. Todd Polinchock (I)

It's another Bucks County district!  This one was also a close open seat in 2018, but went GOP by a tiny margin.  Also going to be one to watch in 2020.  Tossup.

District 145:

Republican:  Craig Staats (I)

Guess which county we're in?  You guessed right, this is another Bucks County district.  This one features an incumbent who held on in 2018, and his vote share was robust enough that there's a good chance he'll hang on in 2020 as well.  Lean R.

District 146:

Democrat:  Joseph Ciresi (I)

This Montgomery County district has a messy electoral history.  It's switched party control multiple times the past few elections, including in 2018, when current incumbent Ciresi knocked out the incumbent with an impressive 10-point win.  He has to be favored in 2020, but he also needs to watch his back.  Lean D.

District 147:

Republican:  Marcy Toepel (I)(Retiring at end of term)

Another Montgomery County district, this one is significantly more Republican than most.  GOP vote margins here usually sit around the 2 to 1 range, and although last cycle showed improvement for Dems, it's not likely enough to flip the district in 2020, though Toepel's vacation of the seat should make it more competitive.  Lean R.

Retirement:  https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/high-ranking-house-republican-toepel-announces-2020-retirement/

District 148:

Democrat:  Mary Jo Daley (I)

Relatively Democratic Montgomery County district.  Likely D.

District 149:

Democrat:  Tim Briggs (I)

Very Democratic Montgomery County district.  Strong D.

District 150:

Democrat:  Joseph Webster (I)

Another Montgomery County district, this one one flipped to Webster with a 12-point victory in 2018, albeit in an open race with no incumbent.  Webster's impressive performance still makes him the favorite in 2020.  Lean D.

[ctherainbow]

District 151:

Republican:  Todd Stephens (I)

Montgomery County district.  This is a competitive district where incumbent Stephens barely crested 51% last cycle.  Tossup.

District 152:

Republican:  Thomas Murt (I)

This partial Montgomery County district also includes a little chunk of Philadelphia, and has not been represented by a Democrat in 50 years.  Last cycle, I thought this might flip, but Murt managed to pull off a 10-point win.  I might end up moving this to Likely R depending on what news comes out of the district.  Lean R.

District 153:

Democrat:  Ben Sanchez (I)

Another Montgomery County district, that is heavily Democratic territory.  Strong D.

District 154:

Democrat:  Steve McCarter (I)(Retiring at end of term)

We're still in Montgomery County, and this district is a 4-1 Democratic district.  For some reason, Republicans kept challenging incumbent McCarter, and he kept crushing them.  Not likely to change this year, even with McCarter retiring.  Strong D.

Incumbent retiring: https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/montco-dem-mccarter-announces-2020-retirement/

District 155:

Democrat:  Danielle Otten (I)

Moving to Chester County, this district is one that flipped last year, as Otten ousted a Republican incumbent in a 9-point victory.  I think she'll be able to hold this swing district in 2020, if not by much.  Tilt D.

District 156:

Democrat:  Carolyn Comitta (I)

Also part of Chester County, this district saw a massive swing towards the Dems last cycle; after Comitta took the seat from its former Republican incumbent in 2016 by 25 votes, she held it in 2018 with a 13-point victory.  Lean D.

District 157:

Democrat:  Melissa Shusterman (I)

Partial Chester and Montgomery County district, where current incumbent Shusterman swung the district from a 12 point GOP win in 2016 to an impressive victory for her in 2018, knocking off the former Republican incumbent by over 13 points.  Lean D.

District 158:

Democrat:  Christina Sappey (I)

Another Chester County district, and this one also featured a Democratic woman knocking out the GOP incumbent.  Her margin of victory was around half of the two previous districts listed, so while I still expect her to hold the district, I'm predicting this one conservatively for now.  Tilt D.

District 159:

Democrat:  Brian Kirkland (I)

This Delaware County district is heavily Democratic, about 3-1.  Strong D.

District 160:

Republican:  Stephen Barrar (I)(Retiring at end of term)

District 160 is split between Chester and Delaware counties, and current incumbent Barrar barely squeaked by last cycle with a less than 3-point win.  With the Philly burbs still looking hostile to the GOP, this is likely to be tight again in 2020, and Barrar will be out of the picture as an incumbent.  Tossup.

Incumbent retiring: https://www.penncapital-star.com/government-politics/veteran-delco-lawmaker-barrar-to-retire-at-the-end-of-his-term/

District 161:

Democrat:  Leanne Krueger-Braneky (I)

A Delaware County district, this is a very competitive area.  Out of the past five elections, only one candidate was able to win more than 56% of the vote, and that was in 2018, when the Dem incumbent hit nearly 60%, an 8-point improvement from her 2016 win.  This could be a flip district if the night goes very badly for Dems, but should probably be a hold in a neutral or Dem-friendly environment.  Lean D.

District 162:

Democrat:  David Delloso (I)

This riverside Delaware County district is significantly more Republican than most Delaware County districts, and when former incumbent Nick Miccarelli retired, leaving the seat open in the 2018 elections, I expected the partisan lean of the district to keep it in GOP hands.  However, Delloso managed to take the win with 51.6% of the vote; it remains to be seen if he can hang onto the seat if the environment is any less favorable than 2018.  Definitely a race to watch.  Tossup.

District 163:

Democrat:  Michael Zabel (I)

Another competitive Delaware County district, this was also another casualty in the GOP suburban Philly wipeout last cycle.  Still gonna be close, but advantage Zabel, who knocked out the former incumbent by about 7 points in 2018.  Tilt D.

District 164:

Democrat:  Margo Davidson (I)

This heavily black Delaware County district has voted about 80% for Davidson in recent elections.  Strong D.

District 165:

Democrat:  Jennifer Omara (I)

Still in Delaware County, and this district was extremely close last election.  The former Republican incumbent won re-election in 2016 by 12 points, but current incumbent Omara barely toppled him with 50.8% of the vote in 2018.  If he runs against her this upcoming cycle, or if PA suburbs start polling differently, this could easily be a Tilt/Lean R seat, but for now...  Tossup.

District 166:

Democrat:  Gregory Vitali (I)

Split between Delaware County and Montgomery County, District 166's incumbent Vitali has represented the district since the year of my birth, and has been increasing his win margins in recent elections.  I wouldn't rate him as vulnerable.  Strong D.

District 167:

Democrat:  Kristine Howard (I)

We're hopping back over to Chester County for this district, which has leaned Republican in recent elections, but was flipped by 4 points in 2018.  Could go either way depending on the suburban environment in November 2020.  Tossup.

District 168:

Republican:  Christopher Quinn (I)

Heading back into Delaware County, this district is yet another competitive one.  Current incumbent Quinn won the seat in 2016 with 56% of the vote, but shrunk to barely over 50% last cycle.  He still held on, though, and I'll give him the advantage until we know more about the 2020 environment.  Tilt R.

District 169:

Republican:  Kate Anne Klunk (I)

It's a York County district that doesn't include the city of York, so it's heavily Republican.  Strong R.

District 170:

Republican:  Martina White (I)

This Philadelphia district has to be a top target for state Dems, as it was represented until 2015 by Democrat Brendan Boyle.  Current incumbent Martina White won the special election to replace him, and managed to hold her seat in 2016 with less than 54% of the vote.  Somehow, she increased her share of the vote in 2018, but she has a far more conservative voting record than you would expect for the district, and won in part due to a massive fundraising disparity.  I'm switching her from being barely disfavored last cycle in my predictions to being barely favored in this cycle, but I really do expect Dems to go after her harder in 2020.  Tilt R.

District 171:

Republican:  Kerry Benninghoff (I)

This district spans parts of Centre County and Mifflin County, and is pretty Republican.  Though 2018's challenger McCracken swung the district 10 points left, incumbent Benninghoff is still the heavy favorite here.  Likely R.

District 172:

Democrat:  Kevin Boyle (I)

Heavily Democratic Philadelphia district that also includes a tiny bit of Montgomery County.  Strong D.

District 173:

Democrat:  Michael Driscoll (I)

Heavily Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 174:

Democrat:  Edward Neilson (I)

Heavily Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 175:

Democrat:  Mary Isaacson (I)

Heavily Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 176:

Republican:  Jack Rader Jr (I)

This 30%+ minority Monroe County district leans more Republican than you might expect.  Despite some historically close elections in this district, it doesn't look to be super competitive this cycle; incumbent Rader still managed a 10-point win in 2018 despite the favorable environment for Dems.  Lean R.

District 177:

Democrat:  Joseph Hohenstein (I)

Back to Philadelphia; this district had a Republican incumbent from 1985 until 2018, when Hohenstein knocked him out with a 60% win.  Lean D.

District 178:

Republican:  Wendi Thomas (I)

In this Bucks County district, first-term incumbent incumbent Wendy Thomas initially lost this seat to Democrat Helen Tai in a special election earlier in 2018.  She then came back and won it in the general election, but only with 50.8% of the vote.  Who knows how this one's going to settle out.  Tossup.

District 179:

Democrat:  Jason Dawkins (I)

Heavily Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 180:

Democrat:  Angel Cruz (I)

Heavily Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 181:

Democrat:  Malcolm Kenyatta (I)

To give you an idea of how Democratic this Philadelphia district is, Kenyatta won over 95% of the vote in 2018.  Strong D.

District 182:

Democrat:  Brian Sims (I)

This Philadelphia district is represented by Daryl Metcalfe target, queer PA icon, and recently “scandal”-plagued(he called an old white lady protesting an abortion clinic an “old white lady”), Brian Sims.  This is a center-city Philly district, so barring a primary challenge, Sims will hold the seat.  Strong D.

District 183:

Republican:  Zachary Mako (I)

For District 183, we're headed back up to Lehigh County and Northampton County, and to an incumbent with a cool shark last name.  Mako won the seat in 2016 with 58% of the vote, and slipped a few points last cycle, but is still the favorite for 2020, and it would take a significant effort to oust him.  Lean R.

District 184:

Democrat:  Elizabeth Fiedler (I)

Heavily Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 185:

Democrat:  Maria Donatucci (I)

Heavily Democratic Delaware County and Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 186:

Democrat:  Jordan Harris (I)

Heavily Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 187:

Republican:  Gary Day (I)

This Berks and Lehigh County district has a pretty strong Republican lean.  Likely R.

District 188:

Democrat:  James Roebuck Jr (I)

Heavily Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 189:

Republican:  Rosemary Brown (I)

In this Monroe and Pike County district, incumbent Rosemary Brown generally wins by comfortable margins of at least 10 points.  Last cycle was a tougher year for her than usual, though she still starts off as the very clear favorite, because it wasn't a particularly close win.  Likely R.

District 190:

(Special election February 25th)

Democrat:  Wanda Logan
Republican:  G. Roni Green

Extremely Democratic open Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 191:

Democrat:  Joanna McClinton (I)

Extremely Democratic Delaware County/Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 192:

Democrat:  Morgan Cephas (I)

Extremely Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 193:

Republican:  Torren Ecker (I)

Heavily Republican Adams and Cumberland County district.  Republicans regularly win about 70% of the vote.  Strong R.

District 194:

Democrat:  Pamela DeLissio (I)

Montgomery County/Philadelphia district with a hefty Democratic voting advantage.  Strong D.

District 195:

Democrat:  Donna Bullock (I)

Very Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 196:

Republican:  Seth Grove (I)

Very Republican York County district.  Strong R.

District 197:

Democrat:  Danilo Burgos (I)

Very Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 198:

Democrat:  Rosita Youngblood (I)

Very Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 199:

Republican:  Barbara Gleim (I)

Cumberland County district that is heavily Republican.  Could be somewhat competitive given a perfect storm of Dem-favorable circumstances, but that's not likely to happen.  Likely R.

District 200:

Democrat:  Christopher Rabb (I)

Very Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 201:

Democrat:  Stephen Kinsey (I)

Very Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 202:

Democrat:  Jared Solomon (I)

Very Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 203:

Democrat:  Isabella Fitzgerald (I)

Very Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

[ctherainbow]

(Reserved for post-election results)

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Leach is gonna get primaried.

[ctherainbow]

Leach is gonna get primaried.

And he's gonna publicly complain about it the entire time and sink his chances even further.   

[ctherainbow]

Done with preliminary predictions.  Can't wait to see how the primaries settle out.   

[Epaminondas]

Wonderful work!

As you say, how counter-intuitive that the House seems like a longer reacher than the Senate, when there are so many more pickings.

[ctherainbow]

Wonderful work!

As you say, how counter-intuitive that the House seems like a longer reacher than the Senate, when there are so many more pickings.

Thank you!  Hopefully you'll come around once in a while to check out the updates.   

[ctherainbow]

First update of the cycle:


House District 85 Special Election:

Both parties have decided on their candidates for the PA House 85th District special election on August 20th.  Republicans have picked a local Union County businessman, David Rowe, while Democrats have again picked their 2018 candidate for this seat, local doctor Jennifer Rager-Kay.  Rager-Kay lost to former incumbent Fred Keller by 35 points in 2018, so despite the seat being open now, I don't expect her to win this time.  For optimal electability, I was hoping the Dems would nominate a young, business owning, white male moderate, but they went with a previous losing candidate, and the district doesn't have enough of a Democratic base or swarm of moderate independents for Dems to win without convincing some Republicans to defect or stay home.  Generic R, which Rowe seems to be thus far, should carry this race, barring a scandal where he's caught eating a fetus or something.

Likely R ---> Strong R

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2019/06/candidates-set-for-special-election-to-fill-state-house-seat-vacated-by-us-rep-fred-keller.html


Senate District 17:

Also, in the Philly suburbs, embattled Democratic State Senator Daylin Leach has drawn a primary challenge from Sara Atkins, a local activist.  So far, this doesn't look like the most credible challenge, but given the allegations against Senator Leach, I expect more primary opponents to throw their hats in the ring.  A particularly ugly primary could spell a closer general election margin, but this is still a pretty democratic seat.  Not changing this district's ratings yet.

Likely D ---> Likely D

http://www.politicspa.com/leach-draws-first-primary-challenger-in-sara-atkins/91401/

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Thank you for tracking this. PALeg is one of the most interesting state legislative election cycles in 2020.

[ctherainbow]

Thank you for tracking this. PALeg is one of the most interesting state legislative election cycles in 2020.

You're welcome!  I'm excited to be tracking this cycle; Dems haven't controlled either legislative chamber in a decade, and there hasn't been a Democratic trifecta in the state since 1994.  Right now, the GCB looks really good for Dems, so we'll have to see what happens next November.

[Yellowhammer]

Martina White’s seat is likely R.

[ctherainbow]

Martina White’s seat is likely R.

Aren't you the user who said banning conversion therapy "deprives queer people of necessary treatment to release them from suffering" or something along those lines?  I don't need you in my thread, thank you.

[Pericles]

Pennsylvania seems quite gerrymandered, Democrats won the popular vote for the state House by 11 points in 2018 and still clearly lost the majority (rather than say a Virginia HoD situation where they come really close), Pennsylvania also being a swing state in 2020 could be bad for state Democrats here, the state House and presidential margins were relatively close in 2016. I'm not a very informed person on Pennsylvania politics but the current map seems very difficult for Democrats to win with, though it probably is possible. Is this right or am I missing something, and so how would this factor into an analysis of Pennsylvania's state legislature?

[Nyvin]

Pennsylvania seems quite gerrymandered, Democrats won the popular vote for the state House by 11 points in 2018 and still clearly lost the majority (rather than say a Virginia HoD situation where they come really close), Pennsylvania also being a swing state in 2020 could be bad for state Democrats here, the state House and presidential margins were relatively close in 2016. I'm not a very informed person on Pennsylvania politics but the current map seems very difficult for Democrats to win with, though it probably is possible. Is this right or am I missing something, and so how would this factor into an analysis of Pennsylvania's state legislature?

Yeah, pretty much.   Trump only won SD-15 less than 5%,  if the district just took in Camp Hill/Mechanicsburg it would almost certainly be a real swing seat, instead it takes in blood red Perry county and makes it a lean R seat.  Also doesn't help that SD-48 takes in a chunk of Harrisburg.

Thankfully with Wolf's Veto, the State Supreme Court being overwhelmingly left wing, and the Demographics of the state favoring dems heavily...this will probably be the last election where Republicans get carried by a favorable map.  

Also SD-9 was won by Clinton by like 13 points and the GOP senator just barely scraped by in 2016...that district should be like Likely/Lean D, not tilt.

[Duke of York]

Under a fair map democrats would likely be favored to gain one or both chambers. The gerrymandering will become much less severe come 2022 due to Wolf winning reelection

[ctherainbow]

Pennsylvania seems quite gerrymandered, Democrats won the popular vote for the state House by 11 points in 2018 and still clearly lost the majority (rather than say a Virginia HoD situation where they come really close), Pennsylvania also being a swing state in 2020 could be bad for state Democrats here, the state House and presidential margins were relatively close in 2016. I'm not a very informed person on Pennsylvania politics but the current map seems very difficult for Democrats to win with, though it probably is possible. Is this right or am I missing something, and so how would this factor into an analysis of Pennsylvania's state legislature?

Yeah, there are definitely some egregious gerrymanders in both the House and Senate maps.  I'm hoping that redistricting in 2021, which is done by a 2Dem/2Pub/1Neutral(ideally) commission, will resolve some of the mess.  However, there are some hurdles to clear:

A, four of the redistricting commission members are legislative leadership, so there is a lot of incentive to protect their own districts+the districts of their friends+generally just the districts of incumbents in their caucuses, unless they don't like somebody, who they could try to screw over.  So districts can end up being really weird to protect incumbents.

B, Pennsylvania's minorities are very concentrated in our cities, so while it's relatively easy to draw minority-majority districts, these reliably Democratic voters also generally get packed into extremely Democratic districts.

C, our smaller cities(basically any city other than Philly or Pittsburgh) don't always have the kind of large, well-educated, suburban housewife neighborhoods that allow more Democratic-leaning seats to be drawn in other states.

It's definitely possible to draw an equal map, or even a slightly Dem-favorable map, so we'll have to see how redistricting settles out in 2021.  In terms of the current map, it's possible for Dems to take both chambers, but it'll take a wipeout of GOP seats in the Philly/Pitt burbs, plus the two Senate seats in Hburg and Erie.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Under a fair map democrats would likely be favored to gain one or both chambers. The gerrymandering will become much less severe come 2022 due to Wolf winning reelection

Democrats technically have control over Legislative Redistricting in Pennsylvania for the 2020s decade, since when divided government in Pennsylvania makes it impossible to pass any state legislative map though legislative means; it goes to the state Supreme Court which is now controlled by Democrats.

[ctherainbow]

Yeah, pretty much.   Trump only won SD-15 less than 5%,  if the district just took in Camp Hill/Mechanicsburg it would almost certainly be a real swing seat, instead it takes in blood red Perry county and makes it a lean R seat.  Also doesn't help that SD-48 takes in a chunk of Harrisburg.

Also SD-9 was won by Clinton by like 13 points and the GOP senator just barely scraped by in 2016...that district should be like Likely/Lean D, not tilt.

Dude, SD 15 is a real swing seat.  It's definitely not a Lean R seat; you could MAYBE make the argument for Tilt R, but I'd say Tossup.  Perry County is very red, yes, but it has a miniscule number of voters compared to Dauphin, which went 3 points blue even in the horrible Dem year of 2016.

And no need to get shady about my ultra-conservative, over a year before the election predictions, ma'am.  It's likely that I will be moving SD 9 to Lean D by the time we closer to the election, but I'm not one to count chickens 16 months before they hatch, are you?

(Thanks for giving my thread a post, though.   )

[Mr.Phips]

How did a Dem incumbent lose the Erie state senate seat when Hillary carried it?  Did the Dem incumbent get indicted or something?

[ctherainbow]

How did a Dem incumbent lose the Erie state senate seat when Hillary carried it?  Did the Dem incumbent get indicted or something?

Honestly, it was one of the surprises of Election Night, but the Republican challenger did his utmost to tie the Dem incumbent to his vote in favor of keeping disgraced Attorney General Kathleen Kane in office.  Add to that the fact that this seat was a top GOP target, and the fact that Hillary’s win in this district was far from overwhelming, and you end up with the flip.  Was definitely a surprise, though.

[smoltchanov]

How did a Dem incumbent lose the Erie state senate seat when Hillary carried it?  Did the Dem incumbent get indicted or something?

Honestly, it was one of the surprises of Election Night, but the Republican challenger did his utmost to tie the Dem incumbent to his vote in favor of keeping disgraced Attorney General Kathleen Kane in office.  Add to that the fact that this seat was a top GOP target, and the fact that Hillary’s win in this district was far from overwhelming, and you end up with the flip.  Was definitely a surprise, though.

IIRC - Republican was relatively moderate on social issues too...