What happend to Andrew Cuomo in Upstate New York after 2010?

[President Johnson]

When he first ran for governor in 2010, Andrew Cuomo swept almost the entire state of New York, including several counties in Upstate. What happend after that caused him to lose most these in 2014 and 2018? By comparison, Chuck Schumer in 2016 and Kirsten Gillibrand in 2018 did better in this part of the state. So I'm not sure this can only be explained by the increasing uran/rural divide that cost Democrats a bunch of senate seats in 2018. What caused Cuomo to lose ground in upstate New York after he became governor and that kept him just under 60% statewide in last years election?

Interestingly, in Erie County the opposite happend: Cuomo lost it in 2010 and won in 2014 and 2018. Maybe a Kathy Hochul effect since she's from Buffalo?


The county maps (from Wikipedia):

2010 (Cuomo defeats Republican 63.0-33.5%):





2014 (Cuomo defeats Republican 54.3-40.3%):





2018 (Cuomo defeats Republican 59.6-36.2%):

[LoneStarDem]

Cuomo Fatigue perhaps ?

[Politician]

They realized what a terrible governor he was

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Can't this just be explained by the Trumpification of rural areas bleeding down ballot?

[President Johnson]

Can't this just be explained by the Trumpification of rural areas bleeding down ballot?

I'd say only in part. The biggest shift happend in 2014 when Trump was not in politics. Also, Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillbrand did better in Upstate, despite the fact their races were for national race. Usually you'd expect the opposite since gubernatorial elections are more about the person than senate contests.

[Young Conservative]

rural areas kept trending right as urban areas kept trending left.

[LoneStarDem]

How did Spitzer do in his 3 statewide election victories as NY State AG (1998, 2002) & NY St Governor (2006) in Upstate ?

[President Johnson]

How did Spitzer do in his 3 statewide election victories as NY State AG (1998, 2002) & NY St Governor (2006) in Upstate ?

In 2006, did even better than Cuomo in 2010, but that was a landslide victory. He got 65.5% of the vote (but was at 33% approval a year later before the scandal even surfaced, lol).

[LoneStarDem]

Looking at all of that Red in 2014 & 2018 YIKES.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Erie County in 2010 can be explained as a Carl Paladino home effect. It seemed to carry down the ballot for the statewide offices, barring the Senate and House elections. Buffalo liked their high-energy Italians that year for some reason.

[Bidenworth2020]

Can't this just be explained by the Trumpification of rural areas bleeding down ballot?

Molinaro did far better than trump upstate NY

[lfromnj]

Can't this just be explained by the Trumpification of rural areas bleeding down ballot?

No because Cuomo did worse than Hillary upstate.

[LoneStarDem]

How did his late Daddy do in 1982, 1986, 1990 & 1994 ?

[lfromnj]

rural areas kept trending right as urban areas kept trending left.

Most of Upstate NY swung D in 2012. There was definetely an underlying trend of rurals swing right but doesn't explain all of it.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

When he first ran for governor in 2010, Andrew Cuomo swept almost the entire state of New York, including several counties in Upstate. What happend after that caused him to lose most these in 2014 and 2018? By comparison, Chuck Schumer in 2016 and Kirsten Gillibrand in 2018 did better in this part of the state. So I'm not sure this can only be explained by the increasing uran/rural divide that cost Democrats a bunch of senate seats in 2018. What caused Cuomo to lose ground in upstate New York after he became governor and that kept him just under 60% statewide in last years election?

Interestingly, in Erie County the opposite happend: Cuomo lost it in 2010 and won in 2014 and 2018. Maybe a Kathy Hochul effect since she's from Buffalo?

There seem to be four reasons in my assessment:

1.) Kirsten Gillibrand's House district encompassed Albany. That explains her strength in Upstate New York.

2.) Gillibrand's last election took place under the impression of an anti-Trump wave, thus the Democratic turnout was stronger than usual. The problem of the unanimous Trump-Schumervote splitting is hard to explain.

3.) As POL_Itician already assumed, his urban arrogance made him unpopular upstate, as the gubernatorials from 2014 and 2018 prove:



4.) The not uncommon revers-political trend in gubernatorial elections. The party that is favored in federal elections has to fight an uphill battle in statewide elections, as for instance in Massachusetts or in West Virginia.

[henster]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NY_SAFE_Act

Upstate NY has a lot of gunowners.

[Epaminondas]

Looking at all of that Red in 2014 & 2018 YIKES.

So many empty acres with a handful of GOP voters YIKES

[Elijah89]

Upstate NY has a lot of gunowners.

This is pretty much it. I don’t have the numbers with me at the moment there was a noticeable drop in Republican approval for Cuomo after the SAFE Act was enacted.

[DemocraticKing]

Yeah it's literally pretty much just the Safe Act

[brucejoel99]

Yeah it's literally pretty much just the Safe Act

This.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A plan was pushed to open upstate NY to fracking, while exempting the NYC watershed.

[Pollster]

Cuomo's 2010 margin was likely aided by Palladino's disastrous candidacy (similar to Coons being aided by O'Donnell). 2014 was very much a regression towards the mean aided by the Safe Act and 2018 a continuation of national trends.

[One Term Floridian]

I’ve always wondered why Cuomo’s support in upstate NY has cratered since 2010. I always figured it was because people in upstate NY consider him another big city Dem who is beholden to NYC interests. Plus the rightward trend of upstate NY since at least 2014 certainly doesn’t help him either