Virginia Legislature Thread 2019

[Skill and Chance]

Look at the population change too.

Miles was commenting about this on twitter, and it's rather shocking when you think about it. Loudoun has 1.5 seats and 86K in the 90s, now has 400K 4.5 seats, and is on track for 5-6 next decade.

So thatd an extra 2 to 3 free seats in NOVA(although fairfax is actually slower than Virginia as a whole)
Yeah the VA gop is ed

I mean, you can tell they're screwed just from what will happen by undoing the gerrymander, even without population changes. Albemarle County is going to send another D once it's consolidated into one district, there will be at least one more D from the Richmond area when the Democrats get rid of the tendrils into rural areas, and maybe there will be another D from Hampton Roads, too, and all of the seats will be safe for the Democrats.

Just when you think Virginia Republicans have hit rock bottom, you realize how much worse it’s gonna keep getting. A 60-40 House of Delegates after redistricting is probably a good baseline. The state senate will probably be something like 23-17 or 24-16. A seat has to move to NOVA, and Siobhan Dunnavant’s seat is going to get a bit more Democratic. Throw in maybe a seat in the Hampton Roads that takes in most of the Democrats in Virginia Beach and Chesapeake for good measure

Yes, the House of Delegates looks really, really bad for R's going forward.  Probably settles in around 60D/40R, but I could easily see Dems getting 2/3rds there in 2017 national environment on the 2020's map. 

Not so sure about the State Senate, though.  NOVA looks very maxed out.  A net gain of 1 in RIC looks likely if the boundary between SD-10/11/12 get smoothed out , but it's not at all clear SD-06 will stay in Dem hands for the decade under its current lines, so I wouldn't assume a net Dem gain in Hampton Roads, at least in the long run. 

I think a court/commission map would end up 22D/18R in the Senate and something like 59D/41R in the House.

[Frodo]

How differently would this Senate map look had Republicans kept control of that chamber in 2007, and thereby been in complete control of redistricting in 2010-2011?  I think if the GOP had kept control of the Senate in 2007, they may well have still kept it in 2019.  Or at least evenly split the chamber. With 2010 redistricting under complete Republican control, they could have gerrymandered their districts to made even more solidly Republican, and made the hill that much steeper to climb for Democrats who only barely won back the Senate as it is.  

[jamestroll]

Democrats seemed to have performed rather disappointingly in Virginia:

-Only 2 senate seats flipped.
-Dunnavant wins in a Clinton+3 district.
-Cheryl Turpin loses to an unknown in a Clinton district
-Kirk Cox survives a Clinton+4 district
-The GOP hold onto a Fairfax County supervisor seat.
-The GOP win the VA Beach legislature vote in both chambers.
-The GOP retain some key offices in suburban Clinton counties.

All this after Clinton+5, Northam+9, and Kaine+16. What happened?

The scandals and poor media attention of Democrats earlier this year probably contributed to this.

So it can be spun again into an impressive Democratic night. But despite #polarization and #inelasticity.. candidate quality.. local politics.. etc still matter to some extent.

[Pericles]

Democrats won a clear and comfortable majority in Virginia, Republicans got lucky by winning a few very close races but overall it is obviously a great result for Democrats and a very grim result for Republicans.

[lfromnj]

Democrats won a clear and comfortable majority in Virginia, Republicans got lucky by winning a few very close races but overall it is obviously a great result for Democrats and a very grim result for Republicans.

Clearly a Senate majority dependent on a rapist and potential rapist is a very clear and comfortable majority .

[Badger]

Democrats won a clear and comfortable majority in Virginia, Republicans got lucky by winning a few very close races but overall it is obviously a great result for Democrats and a very grim result for Republicans.

Clearly a Senate majority dependent on a rapist and potential rapist is a very clear and comfortable majority .

Only until redistricting.

[Zaybay]

Democrats won a clear and comfortable majority in Virginia, Republicans got lucky by winning a few very close races but overall it is obviously a great result for Democrats and a very grim result for Republicans.

Clearly a Senate majority dependent on a rapist and potential rapist is a very clear and comfortable majority .

They're not the problems in the caucus when it comes to votes. Menendez is super corrupt but none of the Democrats are worrying about him blocking legislation.

[lfromnj]

Democrats won a clear and comfortable majority in Virginia, Republicans got lucky by winning a few very close races but overall it is obviously a great result for Democrats and a very grim result for Republicans.

Clearly a Senate majority dependent on a rapist and potential rapist is a very clear and comfortable majority .

They're not the problems in the caucus when it comes to votes. Menendez is super corrupt but none of the Democrats are worrying about him blocking legislation.

Fairfax probably isnt but morrisey might be. Plus you have Northam defenders like salsa as the Senate majority leader.