Virginia Legislature Thread 2019

[Non Swing Voter]

Laura Ingraham is a complete moron but she's partially right.  Most of the growth in Northern Virginia is a mix of foreign born residents and transplants from other states.  Almost none of it is organic growth in Virginia.  In fact, a lot of generational Virginians have been priced out of places like Fairfax.  Take Loudon county for example... huge immigrant population.  Fairfax has a lot of transplants from the Northeast and California due to the large tech sector in Reston. 

However, the GOP is in denial if they think that is the complete picture.  That's primarily what has flipped counties like Loudon but Fairfax is genuine shift in partisan composition from lean right upscale Republicans to lean left based on two things 1) visceral hatred of Donald Trump and his Republican spokespeople (like Laura Ingraham) and 2) the evangelical/conservative drift of the Republican Party on issues like abortion, gay marriage, and most notably gun control.  This is a huge problem for the GOP in a state like Virginia which has tons of upscale moderate voters.  Fairfax County has something like 15% of the entire state population.  You can't write off a voting bloc like that which is essentially what they have been doing.

[wbrocks67]

Democrats seemed to have performed rather disappointingly in Virginia:

-Only 2 senate seats flipped.
-Dunnavant wins in a Clinton+3 district.
-Cheryl Turpin loses to an unknown in a Clinton district
-Kirk Cox survives a Clinton+4 district
-The GOP hold onto a Fairfax County supervisor seat.
-The GOP win the VA Beach legislature vote in both chambers.
-The GOP retain some key offices in suburban Clinton counties.

All this after Clinton+5, Northam+9, and Kaine+16. What happened?

The house literally flipped from Rep 51-49 to Dem 55-45. How is that disappointing?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Write-ins looking good for Freitas

https://twitter.com/ChristianHeiens/status/1192100376348114944?s=20

https://twitter.com/ChristianHeiens/status/1192108415063121920?s=20

[wbrocks67]

Tried adding up totals for the 100 House Races for the Popular vote (included Freitas an R) and came up with:

DEMS 1,196,908 = 52.92%
REPS 993,738 = 43.94%
OTHER (indies/write-in/libertarian) 71,079 = 3.14%

= 2,261,725 total votes

So once again, Dems won by a 9% margin.... just like in 2017.

[Tekken_Guy]

Tried adding up totals for the 100 House Races for the Popular vote (included Freitas an R) and came up with:

DEMS 1,196,908 = 52.92%
REPS 993,738 = 43.94%
OTHER (indies/write-in/libertarian) 71,079 = 3.14%

= 2,261,725 total votes

So once again, Dems won by a 9% margin.... just like in 2017.

But many of the races were uncontested.

[Nyvin]

Tried adding up totals for the 100 House Races for the Popular vote (included Freitas an R) and came up with:

DEMS 1,196,908 = 52.92%
REPS 993,738 = 43.94%
OTHER (indies/write-in/libertarian) 71,079 = 3.14%

= 2,261,725 total votes

So once again, Dems won by a 9% margin.... just like in 2017.

But many of the races were uncontested.

Yeah,  there were whole sections of NoVA and Richmond that had no House or Senate race due to both being uncontested.   Statewide numbers aren't very meaningful.

[wbrocks67]

Tried adding up totals for the 100 House Races for the Popular vote (included Freitas an R) and came up with:

DEMS 1,196,908 = 52.92%
REPS 993,738 = 43.94%
OTHER (indies/write-in/libertarian) 71,079 = 3.14%

= 2,261,725 total votes

So once again, Dems won by a 9% margin.... just like in 2017.

But many of the races were uncontested.

Yeah,  there were whole sections of NoVA and Richmond that had no House or Senate race due to both being uncontested.   Statewide numbers aren't very meaningful.

There were a ton of uncontested races in 2017 as well.

[junior chįmp]

Tried adding up totals for the 100 House Races for the Popular vote (included Freitas an R) and came up with:

DEMS 1,196,908 = 52.92%
REPS 993,738 = 43.94%
OTHER (indies/write-in/libertarian) 71,079 = 3.14%

= 2,261,725 total votes

So once again, Dems won by a 9% margin.... just like in 2017.

Republicans won the 2015 VA elections by 26%

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Democrats in Delegate races that overlapped with competitive Senate races generally outpaced the Democratic Senate candidates, sometimes considerably. In SD-07, Democrats won the House of Delegate vote in the districts overlapping it by just over 5%. Same thing in Dunnavant’s district.

[henster]

I think candidate quality was the issue in SD-07 the Republican Jen Kiggans was a nurse and Navy veteran which is huge in Virginia Beach a big military town. Turpin was a teacher who mainly attacked Kiggans on healthcare which considering she was a nurse was not as effective. Dunnavant is a doctor and Rodman mainly attacked her on healthcare, again it fell flat.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I think candidate quality was the issue in SD-07 the Republican Jen Kiggans was a nurse and Navy veteran which is huge in Virginia Beach a big military town. Turpin was a teacher who mainly attacked Kiggans on healthcare which considering she was a nurse was not as effective. Dunnavant is a doctor and Rodman mainly attacked her on healthcare, again it fell flat.

I didn’t think it made much sense for Democrats to attack Dunnavant on healthcare because she was a doctor too. I know that her profession shouldn’t really matter since she’s voted the complete opposite way in the legislature, but the voters don’t pay attention to stuff like that. They see she’s a doctor and automatically that insulates her against healthcare attacks.

Kiggans being a former pilot was probably a big asset in that seat in Virginia Beach.

I think it goes to show you that candidate quality still matters at the margins, and running on a “I’m a Democrat!” platform only goes so far when your opponent is running on a “independent voice” note, however much a lie that is

[Frodo]

The Virginia House of Delegates has just nominated its first Jewish woman as Speaker,
as well as its first African-American woman as House Majority Leader:

Virginia Democrats choose women to lead House of Delegates

[lfromnj]

IIRC all 3 delegates in power are from NOVA. Shows the power NOVA has over Virginia by now.

[slothdem]

IIRC all 3 delegates in power are from NOVA. Shows the power NOVA has over Virginia by now.

I mean, they do pay for everything.

[Non Swing Voter]

IIRC all 3 delegates in power are from NOVA. Shows the power NOVA has over Virginia by now.

I mean, they do pay for everything.

[Landslide Lyndon]

[One Term Floridian]

The old way of winning in much of VA as a Democrat was definitely a lot more interesting. More...retailing back then

[lfromnj]

Look at the population change too.

[Oryxslayer]

Look at the population change too.

Miles was commenting about this on twitter, and it's rather shocking when you think about it. Loudoun has 1.5 seats and 86K in the 90s, now has 400K 4.5 seats, and is on track for 5-6 next decade.

[lfromnj]

Look at the population change too.

Miles was commenting about this on twitter, and it's rather shocking when you think about it. Loudoun has 1.5 seats and 86K in the 90s, now has 400K 4.5 seats, and is on track for 5-6 next decade.

So thatd an extra 2 to 3 free seats in NOVA(although fairfax is actually slower than Virginia as a whole)
Yeah the VA gop is ed

[Tintrlvr]

Look at the population change too.

Miles was commenting about this on twitter, and it's rather shocking when you think about it. Loudoun has 1.5 seats and 86K in the 90s, now has 400K 4.5 seats, and is on track for 5-6 next decade.

So thatd an extra 2 to 3 free seats in NOVA(although fairfax is actually slower than Virginia as a whole)
Yeah the VA gop is ed

I mean, you can tell they're screwed just from what will happen by undoing the gerrymander, even without population changes. Albemarle County is going to send another D once it's consolidated into one district, there will be at least one more D from the Richmond area when the Democrats get rid of the tendrils into rural areas, and maybe there will be another D from Hampton Roads, too, and all of the seats will be safe for the Democrats.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Look at the population change too.

Miles was commenting about this on twitter, and it's rather shocking when you think about it. Loudoun has 1.5 seats and 86K in the 90s, now has 400K 4.5 seats, and is on track for 5-6 next decade.

So thatd an extra 2 to 3 free seats in NOVA(although fairfax is actually slower than Virginia as a whole)
Yeah the VA gop is ed

I mean, you can tell they're screwed just from what will happen by undoing the gerrymander, even without population changes. Albemarle County is going to send another D once it's consolidated into one district, there will be at least one more D from the Richmond area when the Democrats get rid of the tendrils into rural areas, and maybe there will be another D from Hampton Roads, too, and all of the seats will be safe for the Democrats.

Just when you think Virginia Republicans have hit rock bottom, you realize how much worse it’s gonna keep getting. A 60-40 House of Delegates after redistricting is probably a good baseline. The state senate will probably be something like 23-17 or 24-16. A seat has to move to NOVA, and Siobhan Dunnavant’s seat is going to get a bit more Democratic. Throw in maybe a seat in the Hampton Roads that takes in most of the Democrats in Virginia Beach and Chesapeake for good measure

[Brittain33]

These maps remind me of when VA Republicans bacon stripped southwest VA to unseat incumbents there in 2001.

[lfromnj]

These maps remind me of when VA Republicans bacon stripped southwest VA to unseat incumbents there in 2001.

They still did this decade too, They split Buchanan and Dickenson

[DINGO Joe]

These maps remind me of when VA Republicans bacon stripped southwest VA to unseat incumbents there in 2001.

They still did this decade too, They split Buchanan and Dickenson

They'll get reunited in 2020  .  Will still vote for an R though.