Quinnipiac: Biden leads Trump in TX, other Dems competitive

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1136325797088825344

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2625

[Skye]

Yikes.

[Gass3268]

Purple Texas

[Frenchrepublican]

Either this poll is bullsh**t or Quinnipiac are on to something here

But Warren tied with Trump and Biden leading by four is hard to stomach

[Zaybay]

Probably Lean R for TX.

[Gracile]

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/tx/tx06052019_tgye56.pdf/

Biden 48%
Trump 44%

Trump 46%
Warren 45%

Trump 47%
Sanders 44%

Trump 48%
O’Rourke 45%

Trump 46%
Buttigieg 44%

Trump 47%
Harris 43%

Trump 46%
Castro 43%

[Gass3268]

Either this poll is bullsh**t or Quinnipiac are on to something here

But Warren tied with Trump and Biden leading by four is hard to stomach

This is bs, but some random Republican internals reported by the Washington Examiner are ok? Gotha...

[Skunk]

Biden is only leading in this poll because of Obama nostalgia. Texans love Obama.

[Frenchrepublican]

Either this poll is bullsh**t or Quinnipiac are on to something here

But Warren tied with Trump and Biden leading by four is hard to stomach

This is bs, but some random Republican internals reported by the Washington Examiner are ok? Gotha...

If Biden is winning Texas 48/44 then he is likely winning the election in a near LBJ blowout. Now if you want to believe that Trump is losing by 15 nationwide.... it’s your problem

[OSR stands with Israel]

Its not really much surprising most national polls have Biden beating Trump by a landslide margin.

[Gracile]

Hopefully, this means TX-Sen and the House races will be competitive.

[ajc0918]

The people of Texas are ready to dump the President.

[Woody]

Daily reminder that Trump got 600,000+ more votes than O'Rourke.

[Xing]

Daily reminder that Trump got 600,000+ more votes than O'Rourke.

Thanks, I would never have remembered without your help.

[Gass3268]

Either this poll is bullsh**t or Quinnipiac are on to something here

But Warren tied with Trump and Biden leading by four is hard to stomach

This is bs, but some random Republican internals reported by the Washington Examiner are ok? Gotha...

If Biden is winning Texas 48/44 then he is likely winning the election in a near LBJ blowout. Now if you want to believe that Trump is losing by 15 nationwide.... it’s your problem

Did you not see the all of the elections, minus Governor, in 2018? Texas' place on the scale of competitiveness has shifted towards the center.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1136326387298648065

[OSR stands with Israel]

Either this poll is bullsh**t or Quinnipiac are on to something here

But Warren tied with Trump and Biden leading by four is hard to stomach

This is bs, but some random Republican internals reported by the Washington Examiner are ok? Gotha...

If Biden is winning Texas 48/44 then he is likely winning the election in a near LBJ blowout. Now if you want to believe that Trump is losing by 15 nationwide.... it’s your problem

Did you not see the all of the elections, minus Governor, in 2018? Texas' place on the scale of competitiveness has shifted towards the center.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1136326387298648065

Democrats won  by 9 points in 2018 , they didnt win by 3 lol.

[Alben Barkley]

But... but... just yesterday Atlas was insisting that Texas was out of reach for Dems in 2020 because Trump won it by 9 last time. Because obviously never in history has there been a bigger shift than that (except, oh, Michigan for example in 2016!).

[History505]

I don't believe this.

[Alben Barkley]

I don't believe this.

Dread it. Run from it. Blue Texas still arrives.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Either this poll is bullsh**t or Quinnipiac are on to something here

But Warren tied with Trump and Biden leading by four is hard to stomach

This is bs, but some random Republican internals reported by the Washington Examiner are ok? Gotha...

If Biden is winning Texas 48/44 then he is likely winning the election in a near LBJ blowout. Now if you want to believe that Trump is losing by 15 nationwide.... it’s your problem

Did you not see the all of the elections, minus Governor, in 2018? Texas' place on the scale of competitiveness has shifted towards the center.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1136326387298648065

Democrats won  by 9 points in 2018 , they didnt win by 3 lol.

The 2018 electorate in Texas was more Republican than 2016. Stop bringing up how much the Dems won the House vote by. It’s irrelevant and honestly just proves the point that suburban whites have shifted to the Dems and that plus presidential turnout from non-whites equals doom for the GOP.

[tagimaucia]

Trump's net approval in Texas in the 2018 exit poll was +1%, in this poll it's -1%.  Not much of a difference, and it's really not rocket science that these poll numbers would be close in a state where Trump is basically breaking even (of course, that could change over the next 17 months).

And states don't all swing uniformly and cleanly together from election to election (you only need to look at Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016 to see the obviousness of that statement). If a given state has an large proportion of a demographic that is swinging in a certain direction (in Texas' case, its a state with a bunch of very large metro areas, i.e. suburbs, in MI/WI/PA it was large numbers of non-college educated whites), you'd expect that state to move more sharply in a certain way.

[Politician]

*Trump trails in TX in an early poll*
Texas is Safe D!

*Trump trails in WI/MI in an early poll*
It's early, means nothing, those states are gone for Democrats, etc.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Either this poll is bullsh**t or Quinnipiac are on to something here

But Warren tied with Trump and Biden leading by four is hard to stomach

This is bs, but some random Republican internals reported by the Washington Examiner are ok? Gotha...

If Biden is winning Texas 48/44 then he is likely winning the election in a near LBJ blowout. Now if you want to believe that Trump is losing by 15 nationwide.... it’s your problem

Did you not see the all of the elections, minus Governor, in 2018? Texas' place on the scale of competitiveness has shifted towards the center.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1136326387298648065

Democrats won  by 9 points in 2018 , they didnt win by 3 lol.

The 2018 electorate in Texas was more Republican than 2016. Stop bringing up how much the Dems won the House vote by. It’s irrelevant and honestly just proves the point that suburban whites have shifted to the Dems and that plus presidential turnout from non-whites equals doom for the GOP.

Biden is leading by 11 in PA in this same poll just done recently. That indicates a landslide win lol for the Dems at the moment

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Either this poll is bullsh**t or Quinnipiac are on to something here

But Warren tied with Trump and Biden leading by four is hard to stomach

This is bs, but some random Republican internals reported by the Washington Examiner are ok? Gotha...

If Biden is winning Texas 48/44 then he is likely winning the election in a near LBJ blowout. Now if you want to believe that Trump is losing by 15 nationwide.... it’s your problem

That's not really true.

Given the way Texas is trending, Biden could probably win it by ~4 points if he wins the PV by around 8-9 points, which is unlikely but not entirely impossible.

[Gracile]

*Trump trails in TX in an early poll*
Texas is Safe D!

*Trump trails in WI/MI in an early poll*
It's early, means nothing, those states are gone for Democrats, etc.

I haven't seen anyone claim those things in earnest. Besides, there are factors to consider when predicting races other than polling, you know.