Elections where the outcome could have been different with televised debates?

[One Term Floridian]

While only 0.5% of U.S. households had a television set in 1946, 55.7% had one in 1954, and 90% by 1962. Say, a committee on presidential debates is formed around 1954, when a majority of the voting public had access to a television set in their homes. How different would the outcomes of the presidential elections of 1956, 1964, 1968 and 1972 have been had there been televised debates between the major candidates?

[morgankingsley]

McGovern might even lose Massachusetts

Wallace wins Tennessee and south Carolina

Goldwater loses Arizona and maybe even Georgia

Stevenson wins all states he lost by less than 10

That would be my guess

[Mr. Smith]

In times with the medium as a possibility, probably 1968, which would've flipped the election to Humphrey thanks to Missouri, California, Illinois, and New Jersey.

Overall: 1928, possibly 1896 [but that would've been a bit of a 2016-esque situation if it did go that way].

[morgankingsley]

Now a good question is how would 1976 and beyond be different without debates

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Now a good question is how would 1976 and beyond be different without debates

1976: Ford narrowly wins because Carter was floundering at that point and Ford messed up by making the "Eastern Europe" gaffe.

1980: Reagan still wins but more narrowly

1984: Not much change from the actual '84 results

1988: Dukakis picks up every state he lost by 5 points or less

1992: Perot does worse, Clinton still wins pretty easily

1996: No real change

2000: no real change

2004: maybe Kerry does slightly better

2008: About the same, maybe Obama loses North Carolina


2012: About the same

2016: Trump wins more comfortably

[Pericles]

Now a good question is how would 1976 and beyond be different without debates

1976: Ford narrowly wins because Carter was floundering at that point and Ford messed up by making the "Eastern Europe" gaffe.

1980: Reagan still wins but more narrowly

1984: Not much change from the actual '84 results

1988: Dukakis picks up every state he lost by 5 points or less

1992: Perot does worse, Clinton still wins pretty easily

1996: No real change

2000: no real change

2004: maybe Kerry does slightly better

2008: About the same, maybe Obama loses North Carolina


2012: About the same

2016: Trump wins more comfortably

Overall seems accurate except in 2000 given how close it was and Gore  coming across badly he probably narrowly wins, in 2004 Bush probably wins by more as he had a 7-point lead before the debates, in 2012 Romney may lose North Carolina and maybe congressional Dems do slightly better (UTDH loses).

[One Term Floridian]

Now a good question is how would 1976 and beyond be different without debates

1976: Ford narrowly wins because Carter was floundering at that point and Ford messed up by making the "Eastern Europe" gaffe.

1980: Reagan still wins but more narrowly

1984: Not much change from the actual '84 results

1988: Dukakis picks up every state he lost by 5 points or less

1992: Perot does worse, Clinton still wins pretty easily

1996: No real change

2000: no real change

2004: maybe Kerry does slightly better

2008: About the same, maybe Obama loses North Carolina


2012: About the same

2016: Trump wins more comfortably

Overall seems accurate except in 2000 given how close it was and Gore  coming across badly he probably narrowly wins, in 2004 Bush probably wins by more as he had a 7-point lead before the debates, in 2012 Romney may lose North Carolina and maybe congressional Dems do slightly better (UTDH loses).

Yes, and didn't the debates hurt Gore's momentum at the time?