LA-Remington (R, Abraham internal): Tie

[Politician]

https://abrahamforgovernor.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LA-Statewide-2019-General-Election-Survey-060219-Public-Release-1.pdf

Lean D.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Tilt R.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Tilt R.

No.

[One Term Floridian]

Lean D but I highly doubt Edwards can win this on the first ballot. And he's definitely going to underperform his 2015 results against Vitter and ultimately win by about 4 points in the run-off

[SnowLabrador]

I'm not happy with any Republican winning, but if Abraham does win (which I think he will), I'll be able to say "I told you so".

[Frenchrepublican]

Tossup.

John Bel Edwards wins 45% in the first round and then everything will depend of how republicans unite themselves around the R candidate

[Boobs]

If it goes to a runoff, I could see Edwards's vote drop off precipitously – liberal voters might not be inclined to go out to vote a second time for someone who signed a restrictive abortion bill.

[Devout Centrist]

Tied? In an Abraham internal poll?

Some of you have no sense of perspective

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These races are independent of the EC college, just like MA, MD and VT(Sununu will be defeated in 2020) JBE has working class appeal like Bullock and Roy Cooper, Tossup/Tilt D

[lfromnj]

If it goes to a runoff, I could see Edwards's vote drop off precipitously – liberal voters might not be inclined to go out to vote a second time for someone who signed a restrictive abortion bill.

I do think that LA d's do better in runoffs in a general trend. Not sure if it will hold but it gives a small benefit to Edwards.

[Lechasseur]

Tied? In an Abraham internal poll?

Some of you have no sense of perspective

Yeah I don't buy into internal polls much.

A non-internal poll with this result would be much more interesting.

[LoneStarDem]

I do NOT trust that poll.

[Xing]

There's no doubt Edwards will get the most votes in the jungle primary. Turnout dropping off in the run-off is definitely a potential concern for Edwards, though Abraham will want a better poll than a tie in his own internal.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Morrisey’s internal average was nearly spot on.

[ElectionsGuy]

lol, the infamous 'give someone else a chance' question. The good news here for Abraham is that despite it being his internal, close to half don't know who he is yet. Good news for Edwards is that this poll is a little whiter than it should be.

[smoltchanov]

Essentially we have simple mathematical equality here: Abraham votes +Rispone votes = JBE votes.

Corrolaries:

1. October election will be close.
2. Run-off between JBE and Abraham is likely.
3. Abraham will be very slightly favored in run-off, because "his" voters (conservative activists) are, generally, more disciplined, and will turn out better, then relatively low-turnout JBE  "base" voters (Blacks).
4. "Moderate Republicans" (who supported JBE against Vitter) are poised to play one of decisive roles again. Will they stick with person (JBE) or party (Republican)?

[😥]

Lean D

[Politician]

Morrisey’s internal average was nearly spot on.

WV has a significant polling bias that LA does not have.

[LoneStarDem]

I'm still NOT buying this stupid **** polling survey.

[LoneStarDem]

Once again: I do NOT see Louisianans being that stupid voting out a popular Dem Governor with budget surplus!

JBE is the Dem version of Larry Hogan.

[ElectionsGuy]

Once again: I do NOT see Louisianans being that stupid voting out a popular Dem Governor with budget surplus!

JBE is the Dem version of Larry Hogan.

What is your deal? Do you feel the need to post your adamant opinion multiple times?

[smoltchanov]

Once again: I do NOT see Louisianans being that stupid voting out a popular Dem Governor with budget surplus!

JBE is the Dem version of Larry Hogan.

Substantially less popular, then Hogan with his stellar numbers. At the same time - Louisiana is almost as Republican and conservative as Maryland - Democratic and liberal. And far more inflexible to boot. Landrieu was popular as well... until 2014. And - member of famous political dynasty. And ...  so on. And still lost 56-44. Because of exactly one letter...

[Woody]

Morrisey’s internal average was nearly spot on.

WV has a significant polling bias that LA does not have.

Source please.

[UncleSam]

Garbage lol

I unironically think that the nonpartisan JBE +10 is a better poll for Abraham

[South Dakota Democrat]

These races are independent of the EC college, just like MA, MD and VT(Sununu will be defeated in 2020) JBE has working class appeal like Bullock and Roy Cooper, Tossup/Tilt D

None of that made a lot of sense, but I'll also point out that you said "EC college."  In other words, Electoral College College.