Can someone explain Alleghany County, VA?

[heatcharger]

I've been meaning to post about this...



On first glance this county is rather uninteresting -- it's an Appalachian county that voted for Trump, Gillespie, and Stewart by huge margins. But a deeper look at its voting record is more curious, especially in 2012:

2018-SEN: Stewart +27
2017-GOV: Gillespie +32
2016-PRES: Trump +37
2014-SEN: Warner +9
2013-GOV: Cuccinelli +9
2013-LT-GOV: Northam +12
2012-PRES: Romney +3 (!!)
2012-SEN: Allen +4
2009-GOV: Deeds +23
2009-LT-GOV: Wagner +13
2008-PRES: McCain +2
2008-SEN: Warner +50
2006-SEN: Webb +4
2005-GOV: Kaine +10
2005-LT-GOV: Byrne +5
2004-PRES: Bush +11
2001-GOV: Warner +19
2001-LT-GOV: Kaine +9
2000-PRES: Bush +12
2000-SEN: Allen +11
1997-GOV: Gilmore +15
1996-PRES: Clinton +8 (Perot 12%)
1996-SEN: Warner +11
1994-SEN: Ollie North +4
1993-GOV: Allen +33
1992-PRES: Clinton +2 (Perot 17%)
1988-PRES: H.W. Bush +5
1984-PRES: Reagan +23
1980-PRES: Carter +5
1976-PRES: Carter +16
1972-PRES: Nixon +40
1968-PRES: Nixon +17 (Wallace 31%)

In some ways, the county reflects similar voting behavior to other counties in the region. They gave Wallace a large share. They supported Republicans in victory during the 20th century (though randomly for Ollie North in 1994?). They were quite willing to support Carter, Clinton, and a handful of other Democrats at the local level, namely Mark Warner. Needless to say it has also drifted significantly to the right in recent years.

But the 2012 presidential results in this county jump out. Unlike neighboring counties in West Virginia which saw massive swings, Alleghany barely swung to Romney if at all. It also voted for Romney at a smaller margin than George Allen that year, which is unlike most other counties in the western half of the state. That's pretty odd, even if this county is more in line with upper Shenandoah counties rather than SW VA.

I'm not very familiar with the subcultures of this area. There isn't any kind of college presence to note, and the racial demographics are boring (96% white). Though I suspect there has been brain drain and die-off, as the % of people in the county between 20-44 went from 31% in 2000 to 26% in 2010, as well as going from 15.7% of the population being over 65 in 2000 to 20.3% in 2010.

I'm not really sure that fully explains the weirdness of this county though, especially that 2012 result. Anyone have any ideas?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The county is entirely within George Washington and Jefferson National Forest and seems to be pretty heavy for tourism: http://www.visitalleghanyhighlands.com/main/index.php

[heatcharger]

The county is entirely within George Washington and Jefferson National Forest and seems to be pretty heavy for tourism: http://www.visitalleghanyhighlands.com/main/index.php

True, tourism has mostly been a favorable industry to Democrats. And the Shenandoah Valley had relatively minor swings in 2012 as well, but this county was basically static, and neighboring counties in the Monongahela National Forest in WV saw pretty big swings towards Romney and supported him by ~25 points. Obviously state politics have an influence and megacoattails aren't too real, but it's still odd.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

How did Stewart do better in this County in 2018 than literally all Republicans between 1994 and 2015? Makes no sense.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

How did Stewart do better in this County in 2018 than literally all Republicans between 1994 and 2015? Makes no sense.

How did Stewart win Southwest Virginia so overwhelmingly when it was a Democratic stronghold for decades?

[VPH]

Covington, which is an independent city but the economic anchor for the county, has a large paper mill. Having a White working-class mill town nearby helps explain this trend.

[lfromnj]

How did Stewart do better in this County in 2018 than literally all Republicans between 1994 and 2015? Makes no sense.

Orange Man good.

[RINO Tom]

How did Stewart do better in this County in 2018 than literally all Republicans between 1994 and 2015? Makes no sense.

Orange Man good.

You continue to provide an amazing contribution to this forum as a poster, I see.

[DINGO Joe]

I'm not very familiar with the subcultures of this area. There isn't any kind of college presence to note, and the racial demographics are boring (96% white). Though I suspect there has been brain drain and die-off, as the % of people in the county between 20-44 went from 31% in 2000 to 26% in 2010, as well as going from 15.7% of the population being over 65 in 2000 to 20.3% in 2010.

From the 2018 Estimates the 65 and over population is now 24.1% and the county-city have lost 8.3% of it's population this decade.  Covington city and Alleghany are down to about 20,000 from a peak of around 28,500 in 1980.  If Wiki is right the paper mill employees 1300 people which makes it a massive employer.  I've been through there but have never stopped in Covington or Clifton Forge.  They both look very picturesque but I'd assume that the paper mill probably limits any potential for Covington to be a tourist or retirement town.  With such an elderly demo it's probably hard to attract other manufacturers or distributors to the area even though they're on an interstate (and unfortunately I-81 soaks up most the energy for that kind of thing). They're not large enough to be a regional medical center (and they're within an hour of Roanoke).  None of this really answers your question but I really don't know what ultimately will happen to places like this.  I mean there are places old like this and that are growing, but they are attracting retirees and medical jobs whereas this is just the local population dying in place.  And if the paper mill shuts down?

A little view of Covington  http://porterbriggs.com/16420-2/

[lfromnj]

How did Stewart do better in this County in 2018 than literally all Republicans between 1994 and 2015? Makes no sense.

Orange Man good.

You continue to provide an amazing contribution to this forum as a poster, I see.

Sure is it a meme answer?

Yes

But is it the wrong answer?

No lol. Its the same with Romney Menendez voters in NJ. Its Orange Man Bad. Am I denying there weren't actual political reasons that these people flipped in 2016? Sure there could have been some underlying cultural issues but most of these voters are now generally locked into their choice based on who Trump is. For example Take Howard County Iowa a +20 obama and +20 Trump county. I do believe Sanders might have won it in 2016 but Sanders can not win it in 2020 because these Obama Trumpers are mostly locked into Trump.