ME-SEN: Susan Collins at 41% approval to 42% disapproval

[SnowLabrador]

Source: https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/f4eda1_fdf61ff89a944d47830f8d36f2fac763.pdf

[Sestak]

But but but...unbeatable Popular Moderate^TM FF!

In all seriousness, this seems really likely to end up a reasonably close race.

[MT Treasurer]

If Trump’s approval is really 34/58 here, Collins is obviously in big trouble, but I doubt it’s that low. That said, it will almost certainly be her closest reelection race ever. Lean R seems about right for now.

[UncleSam]

Collins’ approval among Republicans is 46% in this poll. Interesting she is so high among Dems (31%). Could be seen as a double-edged sword of sorts in that she probably has a lot of soft approval and disapproval. The poll is probably pretty D-friendly sample-wise as well.

[lfromnj]

Collins’ approval among Republicans is 46% in this poll. Interesting she is so high among Dems (31%). Could be seen as a double-edged sword of sorts in that she probably has a lot of soft approval and disapproval. The poll is probably pretty D-friendly sample-wise as well.

Yeah throw it in the trash. She doesn't have that low a GOP approval.

[Del Tachi]

Doesn't matter.  Like Mitch McConnell, a lot of these "unfavorable" respondents are Republicans who would prefer a more conservative senator.  These voters will happily vote for Collins against a liberal Democrat though.

[Gracile]

Maybe a touch D-friendly, but it confirms that Collins is headed for a competitive race this time around.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Unfortunate, we need to cherish and support the few remaining moderates.

[Xing]

People can unskew this poll if they like, but it should be pretty clear that Collins is not going to cruise to re-election like she used to just because she seems "moderate" or because she's an "entrenched incumbent." Even if this poll is favorable to Democrats, it shows a pretty large drop in her approval from their previous poll, and the fact that even some popular Republican incumbents in 2018 in federal races either lost or had much closer calls than before (Katko) should be a warning sign for Collins. If Trump comes as close to winning Maine as he did in 2016, then yes, Collins should be fine, but if he does noticeably worse, she could definitely be in trouble. Ask Mark Pryor, Kelly Ayotte, Claire McCaskill, or Bill Nelson how much their previous margins of victory helped them in their most recent race.

I'd guess that Collins wins by low-mid single digits for now, so Lean R, but those who aren't even considering Collins vulnerable are definitely letting their bias get in the away of being objective.

[Cashew]

Unfortunate, we need to cherish and support the few remaining moderates.

Let me know when you find one.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With Biden and Ryan as the team, I feel good about the Dems chances in other states: NC, TX, GA, AZ, CO and AL.  Collins will retire next term like Feinstein, Jerald Golden can run in 2024, in Biden's reelect year. It's best for Dems to triage this race and move on elsewhere. 

[Politician]

RIP DPKDebator

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Unfortunate, we need to cherish and support the few remaining moderates.

Let me know when you find one.

Susan Colins.

[Xing]

Unfortunate, we need to cherish and support the few remaining moderates.

Let me know when you find one.

Susan Colins.

Your search - "Susan Colins is a moderate tho" - did not match any results.

Suggestions:

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[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Unfortunate, we need to cherish and support the few remaining moderates.

Let me know when you find one.

Susan Colins.

Your search - "Susan Colins is a moderate tho" - did not match any results.

Suggestions:

    Make sure all words are spelled correctly.
    Try different keywords.
    Try more accurate keywords.
    Try looking up the definition of keywords.

Try "Lean cuisine moderate TM"

[Cashew]

Unfortunate, we need to cherish and support the few remaining moderates.

Let me know when you find one.

Susan Colins.

You mean the woman who lies about her stance on abortion, voted for all of Trump's judicial nominees until the Republican senate majority grew after 2018, and only casts symbolic votes against McConnell when Republicans already have the 50+1 majority they need to get something passed? That Susan Collins?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Unfortunate, we need to cherish and support the few remaining moderates.

Let me know when you find one.

Susan Colins.

You mean the woman who lies about her stance on abortion, voted for all of Trump's judicial nominees until the Republican senate majority grew after 2018, and only casts symbolic votes against McConnell when Republicans already have the 50+1 majority they need to get something passed? That Susan Collins?

[MT Treasurer]

I'd guess that Collins wins by low-mid single digits for now, so Lean R, but those who aren't even considering Collins vulnerable are definitely letting their bias get in the away of being objective.

Literally no one here is doing this, though...

[Politician]

I'd guess that Collins wins by low-mid single digits for now, so Lean R, but those who aren't even considering Collins vulnerable are definitely letting their bias get in the away of being objective.

Literally no one here is doing this, though...

Safe GOP. Collins will be in the United States Senate until she dies!

Safe R.  Kavanaugh won't really matter by November 2020, and Collins will most likely end up winning every county like she has in every reelection race (dating back to 2002), even if she ends up underperforming compared to her 2014 blowout win.

Safe R unless Susan Collins retires or dies.

[MT Treasurer]

I'd guess that Collins wins by low-mid single digits for now, so Lean R, but those who aren't even considering Collins vulnerable are definitely letting their bias get in the away of being objective.

Literally no one here is doing this, though...

Safe GOP. Collins will be in the United States Senate until she dies!

Safe R.  Kavanaugh won't really matter by November 2020, and Collins will most likely end up winning every county like she has in every reelection race (dating back to 2002), even if she ends up underperforming compared to her 2014 blowout win.

Safe R unless Susan Collins retires or dies.

Well, that was fast, well done. Still, the general consensus among pundits and posters is that 2020 will be the toughest race of her career and that this is more of a Lean or Tilt R race. Obviously you’ll have three or four posters saying that this is a Safe R race just like three or four other posters will claim that this is a Lean or Likely D race. I just wouldn’t be so quick to assume that any Democrat will make this a Tossup, and it’s not like Collins hasn’t faced tough opponents or very unfavorable environments before. Polling underestimated her pretty substantially in 2008 and 2014, FWIW, and it’s not like "polarization" wasn’t high in 2008 and 2014 (Collins was the only Republican to win in a blue state in those years, and by landslide margins at that).

[Pericles]

Collins probably voted Kavanaugh to avoid getting primaried. If she vied against both Obamacare repeal and Kavanaugh she would be very vulnerable to the right, but the Kavanaugh vote showed up the right for her. She gambled given her popularity and Maine's R trend she would be less vulnerable in the general election. It is unclear whether she will be proven right or wrong, and perhaps even if she loses she'd have had an even smaller cha de of keeping her seat as she would have been primaried.

[Podgy the Bear]

If Trump’s approval is really 34/58 here, Collins is obviously in big trouble, but I doubt it’s that low. That said, it will almost certainly be her closest reelection race ever. Lean R seems about right for now.

If Trump approval is 34 in Maine, that means ME-2 is gone for him.  Switch Pennsylvania and Michigan--makes it 269-269 (!).  But I would think a 34/58 approval in Maine signals significant trouble for Trump in a lot of places to worry about an EC tie.

As for Collins, there will probably be some ticket splitting but she'll have a tough race.
 

[junior chįmp]

This poll is very concerning for Collins

[DrScholl]

I truly believe that her luck has finally run out.

[Xing]

I'd guess that Collins wins by low-mid single digits for now, so Lean R, but those who aren't even considering Collins vulnerable are definitely letting their bias get in the away of being objective.

Literally no one here is doing this, though...

Safe GOP. Collins will be in the United States Senate until she dies!

Safe R.  Kavanaugh won't really matter by November 2020, and Collins will most likely end up winning every county like she has in every reelection race (dating back to 2002), even if she ends up underperforming compared to her 2014 blowout win.

Safe R unless Susan Collins retires or dies.

Well, that was fast, well done. Still, the general consensus among pundits and posters is that 2020 will be the toughest race of her career and that this is more of a Lean or Tilt R race. Obviously you’ll have three or four posters saying that this is a Safe R race just like three or four other posters will claim that this is a Lean or Likely D race. I just wouldn’t be so quick to assume that any Democrat will make this a Tossup, and it’s not like Collins hasn’t faced tough opponents or very unfavorable environments before. Polling underestimated her pretty substantially in 2008 and 2014, FWIW, and it’s not like "polarization" wasn’t high in 2008 and 2014 (Collins was the only Republican to win in a blue state in those years, and by landslide margins at that).

I didn't call it a Toss-Up, I said that it was Lean R. Anyway, as I said, plenty of senators have gone from landslide victories to losses or very close calls, so it's not like her past victories tell us anything. Not to mention, in 2008, Pryor, Baucus, Johnson, and Rockefeller all won by more than Collins, so it was at least more common for Senators to significantly outrun the presidential ticket back then. And 2014 was a Republican wave year in which Democrats didn't raise a finger against Collins. As I said, I'm sure that there will be some people to vote for the Democratic candidate for president and Collins for Senate, and if Trump does as well in Maine as he did in 2016 (or better), then she'll definitely win. However, if Trump loses Maine by noticeably more than he did in 2016, she's not guaranteed to win.