Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Hnv1]

Here is a question. Are interim ministerial positions voted on in plenum? I don't understand why Naftali Bennet gets to remain defense minister despite a Knesset that has more left wingers than right wingers. It seems awful and dumb that we are using a Knesset dissolved one year ago to determine the interim government a year and a half later.

yes. when the basic law was drafted no one really thought of successive elections. Tomorrow the Knesset's advocate (who's an excellent jurist is going to publish a paper on what happens next. but it's important to remember most of what's happening is filled with voids at the moment

[Walmart_shopper]

Here is a question. Are interim ministerial positions voted on in plenum? I don't understand why Naftali Bennet gets to remain defense minister despite a Knesset that has more left wingers than right wingers. It seems awful and dumb that we are using a Knesset dissolved one year ago to determine the interim government a year and a half later.

yes. when the basic law was drafted no one really thought of successive elections. Tomorrow the Knesset's advocate (who's an excellent jurist is going to publish a paper on what happens next. but it's important to remember most of what's happening is filled with voids at the moment

And, oddly, even though Netanyahu is merely caretaking as pm right now, his power in terms of broad governmental authority is arguably greater now than it is during a permanent Knesset precisely because interim appointments are so meaningless and unaccountable to anyone but the pm. So Bibi is running the country nearly autocratically at this point, which all goes back to why Mandelblit may find the idea of Netanyahu remaining as pm while under indictment so problematic.

[jaymichaud]

So while I was asleep have we actually gone of the metaphorical cliff guaranteeing third elections? Or will there be room for more shenanigans like a non-Bibi, non-Gantz, MK getting the go ahead from the Pres to form a government?  

Honestly which MK could even form a coalition at this point? The only option I can think of is one of the other B&W generals or Lapid.

Are we predicting Likud to lose many/any seats in a third election?

[The Mikado]

Do we think the electorate will punish Lieberman for Election 3? It's clearly going to mostly be his fault if people have to vote a third time.

Do you all think Yamina will reform for the election, or will Bennet's crew just permanently join Likud and leave the rest of Yamina a rump party again?

[Walmart_shopper]

So while I was asleep have we actually gone of the metaphorical cliff guaranteeing third elections? Or will there be room for more shenanigans like a non-Bibi, non-Gantz, MK getting the go ahead from the Pres to form a government?  

Honestly which MK could even form a coalition at this point? The only option I can think of is one of the other B&W generals or Lapid.

Are we predicting Likud to lose many/any seats in a third election?

Yes, I think a new election is a unique risk to the Likud, and as I predicted above, I think the left will get a majority.

Polling has shown Blue and White with a small lead over the Likud and the left bloc leading the right with 57-58 seats (they have 57 now; 61 is a majority). Keep in mind, too, that Israeli polling typically underestimates the left by a couple of seats. Polls also show Netanyahu receiving the brunt of blame for a new election. He will also have a formal indictment announced soon. None of that augurs well for Netanyahu, the Likud, or the religious-right bloc.

In any case, this will be a particularly tough election to poll and predict.

[Walmart_shopper]

Do we think the electorate will punish Lieberman for Election 3? It's clearly going to mostly be his fault if people have to vote a third time.

Do you all think Yamina will reform for the election, or will Bennet's crew just permanently join Likud and leave the rest of Yamina a rump party again?

No, polls actually show Netanyahu bearing much more blame than Liberman, who is still polling well. Liberman has a fairly tribalistic electorate, so they will stick with him for the most part no matter what he does. If anything, he'll probably suck a mandate or two from the Likud (and Blue and White will poach a mandate or two of his).

Netanyahu will almost definitely try to swallow the whole non-Haredi right into the Likud. And, just as it did in September when he cannibalized Kulanu, it will backfire. The right needs a diffusion, where Otzmah, New Right, and Bayit HaYehudi all get across the threshold. But the catch is thar that will almost certainly hurt the Likud, who could finiah several mandates below Blue and White in this scenario. If most of the right bloc partners with the Likud, it is a huge risk.

[Hnv1]

So last 21 days. Each MK can vote for multiple candidates, individual votes not as factions.

[Antonio the Sixth]

For f**k's sake.

This is becoming genuinely terrifying.

[bigic]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1197471840811266048

Maybe this time he is really ready.

[Hnv1]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1197471840811266048

Maybe this time he is really ready.

going to lose. but I think the entire point is to unhinge Bibi, if he sees it takes too much to win or creates too much collateral damage for the GE he might get the hint. Sa'ar is brave as he's going to take some much heat right now. But generally he's a HP.

[Kingpoleon]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1197471840811266048

Maybe this time he is really ready.

Is there any chance Nir Barkat will jump in?

[jaymichaud]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/first-likud-mk-publicly-backs-saar-in-case-of-likud-primaries/

It’s pretty clear Likud are finally starting to see Netanyahu as a liability. Being a kiss ass is bad enough, but being a kiss ass to a man who’s lost 2 elections, is openly fraudulent/corrupt, and is being blamed for dragging the country into a situation that no one wants to be is MUCH worse.

[Hnv1]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/first-likud-mk-publicly-backs-saar-in-case-of-likud-primaries/

It’s pretty clear Likud are finally starting to see Netanyahu as a liability. Being a kiss ass is bad enough, but being a kiss ass to a man who’s lost 2 elections, is openly fraudulent/corrupt, and is being blamed for dragging the country into a situation that no one wants to be is MUCH worse.

Michal Shir was always of Saar’s camp. Bibi has unprecedented support within the parliamentary group

[Walmart_shopper]

The indictment will be announced in a couple of hours. But I doubt it will change much. Netanyahu could shoot a guy in broad daylight in Manhattan and...oh wait. Sorry. Wrong demagoguery-queen cult leader.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1197471840811266048

Maybe this time he is really ready.

Is there any chance Nir Barkat will jump in?

No, Saar is the undisputed Never Netanyahu candidate. And Barkat is a bit of a b-lister anyway. I thought he was a decent mayor, though.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Leak in credible channels: Netanyahu to be indicted for bribery, fraud and breach of trust.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Mandelblit-reportedly-will-announce-Netanyahu-indictment-today-608541

[The Dowager Mod]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1197553667869687809

[Oryxslayer]

Anyone think that now the Damoclean swords have all dropped, (Indictment, Leadership challenge, Ticking clock for round 3) the arithmetic will change in any way? Since leib has been working with Lapid he could do an about face and say 'oh now that Bibi is tried we should get him out of there,'  could being the key word. 20 days is a long time for everyone to feel the heat and not find some solution.

[Walmart_shopper]

Leak in credible channels: Netanyahu to be indicted for bribery, fraud and breach of trust.

Good. But now he must emphasize that Netanyahu isn't fit to stay in office. The legal loophole that allows a man who cannot be trusted to remain in the country's most trusted position is not only an affront to democracy but also basic morality. Bibi, go home.

[Walmart_shopper]

Anyone think that now the Damoclean swords have all dropped, (Indictment, Leadership challenge, Ticking clock for round 3) the arithmetic will change in any way? Since leib has been working with Lapid he could do an about face and say 'oh now that Bibi is tried we should get him out of there,'  could being the key word. 20 days is a long time for everyone to feel the heat and not find some solution.

Of course not.

But it could shift a couple of mandates from Bibi to Gantz in the next election, which would get the leftreally close to a majority.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AyOdeh/status/1197550698927448065

I love this guy so much.

Translation: the day Netanyahu pays for his criminal offenses is the day we can begin to heal the damage from his social misdeeds.The racism and hatred he promoted won't go away with his deeds. And it's up to us--Arabs and Jews--to build together a society of peace, democracy, and equality that serves all of the state's citizens.

A(y)men.

Compare this with the right's frantic and frothy ranting about Arab lawmakers this week and you start to see why the dystopianism the right wing is leading us towards is starting to crumble, however slowly. Ugliness is ugly and Netanyahu's conspiatorial, dishonest, and autocratic way of doing business is so, so ugly.

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/tamarzandberg/status/1197552233325506565?s=21

This.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/tamarzandberg/status/1197552233325506565?s=21

This.

In a normal country, as they say.

[Hnv1]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1197471840811266048

Maybe this time he is really ready.

Is there any chance Nir Barkat will jump in?

No, Saar is the undisputed Never Netanyahu candidate. And Barkat is a bit of a b-lister anyway. I thought he was a decent mayor, though.

One of the worst mayor in Israel and generally an opportunist buffoon