Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[jaymichaud]

You really thought you did something huh ^

Also apparently Balad oppose recommending Gantz, according to Jamal Zahalka on twitter.

[Oryxslayer]

You really thought you did something huh ^

Also apparently Balad oppose recommending Gantz, according to Jamal Zahalka on twitter.

Yeah, apparently there is division on the path forward within the ranks, the previous claims of uniform support were overly exaggerated. But Gantz has Lieberman's support, so he doesn't need all the Arabs at this stage.

[H. Ross Peron]

How on Earth did UTJ get a plurality in Israel's largest city? (Jerusalem) How high is Jereusalem's Haredi population? Considering UTJ+Shas it must be close to a majority.

I wonder how the huge Haredi population impacts Jerusalem's local policy tbh, with all the religious restrictions and what not.

I've heard it's partially just Haredi choosing to relocate to the most important city in Judaism, which makes sense I guess. If you were an extremely religious Israeli Jew, where would you choose to live; godless Tel Aviv or the holiest city in the world?

Israeli posters might know better than me though.

The haredim are a very geographically concentrated bunch. They like to live in their own settlements, towns, and historically religious neighborhoods. You'll fginad a ton of places where UTJ+Shas got below 3%. Then there are places like Bnei Brak which singlehandedly makes the Tel-Aviv region a tossup between the religious right and the various anti-bibi tickets, because of how many votes it has and how they ALL go to the Haredim. Jerusalem happens to fit this pattern, or at least sections of it. The haredim won the city in 2015 as well, this isn't unusual.

Does anyone have numbers on how Jerusalem has voted historically?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I’m aware of that but I had this idea that Eilat was an exception because it’s sort of the Miami Beach of Israel. What religious nut would live in a place with so much mixed sunbathing?

I think you have the wrong idea about the average Likud voter, who in reality would have no problem going to a mixed sunbathing beach. This isn't even something particular to Eilat, you can find these beaches all along the Mediterranean, in places like Ashkelon or Netanya.

Yeah, those numbers don't make it come across as a "religious nut" stronghold, they make it come across as a stronghold for the secular center-right and right. Likud, KL, and YB all beat their national numbers (Likud most markedly so, of course), Labour was on par with its national average, Yamina underperformed, DemCamp bombed, and the Haredi parties plus Otzma Yehudit didn't break 10%.

[Hnv1]

For some reason I had this idea that Eilat would be a more
Left-leaning place since it’s widely regarded as a hedonistic “sin city” in Israel

A lot of the more "medium" sized places in Israel are likud/religious-right strongholds. This is because of other factors than their size, but it's a trend nonetheless.

I’m aware of that but I had this idea that Eilat was an exception because it’s sort of the Miami Beach of Israel. What religious nut would live in a place with so much mixed sunbathing?

The population of Eilat aren’t the hotel goers, any native I’ve ever met was pretty much hardcore Ars (chav), also very very predominantly Sephardi

I was in Eilat few years ago and did notice the locals were unusually creepy. They were loud, clingy and the phrases "kapara" and "sababa" were annoyingly overused.  
My Israeli girlfriend mentioned people refer to them as "arsim", but Eilat also has a large tourist population from all over Israel, people come and go.

The beaches were nice in Eilat, but I found places like Acadia beach in Herzliya much more appealing.

Well I, friends, and family, would never go on vacations in Eilat. make of that what you wish

[Hnv1]

My Israeli girlfriend mentioned people refer to them as "arsim", but Eilat also has a large tourist population from all over Israel, people come and go.

I just love those
socialists who hate capitalism
so ostentatiously, wear ugly sandals
and torn t-shirts, wrapping themselves in a homeless look
without telling a soul about grandma’s inheritance or dad’s real estate
(they look homeless too)
and criticize the culture of affluence with bombast
as if they were prophets of vengeance with gurgling stomachs.

I just love those
who wish their Arab brothers
Ramadan Kareem
and sign petitions legalizing
the sale of hametz during Passover.

I just love those
who relish in the muazzin’s call
and see the Chabad or Breslav
truck in the neighborhood
as the devil’s wheeled messengers.

I just love those
who call the settlers messianic
and crazy because they believe in this land
by some godly decree
and cry the pain of the Palestinians
for having been expelled from this land
which they believe to be theirs
by some godly decree
(the very same decree from the very same god, by the way).

I just love those,
third generation to the
plunder of lands by the kibbutzim,
who boycott the settlements
because Occupation and stolen land

(I dream one day
to have the privilege
of boycotting cultural events on kibbutzim
as a political act, in the meantime
I suffice with charging them weekend rates
on weekdays).

I just love those
sensitive Jews who demonstrate against the Occupation
and go home to their
Arab house in Yaffo
which they call Yaffa
with a melancholy glance of
shared fate over hummus
at Abu something-or-other
licking their lips with every
wipe of the pita and
murmuring about ending the Occupation,
dreaming of two states for two nations
because – walla –
(they fumble for the Arabic)
Occupation Occupation
(or nakba nakba):
next to them but not with them,
they’re Arabs after all.

An Arab friend said about them once
that they’ll never make peace,
because if there’ll be peace
all the arsim will come.

Oh, it's the bullsh**t movement who blames the left on why they're right wing. in 2015 they supported Shas.

[Famous Mortimer]

Uri Lupolianski, a member of United Torah Judaism, was mayor of Jerusalem from 2003 to 2008. They have always been a major party there.

Tel Aviv is similarly ideologically lop sided. Their mayoral elections are usually Labor vs Meretz or Labor vs Hadash.

[Walmart_shopper]

For some reason I had this idea that Eilat would be a more
Left-leaning place since it’s widely regarded as a hedonistic “sin city” in Israel

A lot of the more "medium" sized places in Israel are likud/religious-right strongholds. This is because of other factors than their size, but it's a trend nonetheless.

I’m aware of that but I had this idea that Eilat was an exception because it’s sort of the Miami Beach of Israel. What religious nut would live in a place with so much mixed sunbathing?

The population of Eilat aren’t the hotel goers, any native I’ve ever met was pretty much hardcore Ars (chav), also very very predominantly Sephardi

I was in Eilat few years ago and did notice the locals were unusually creepy. They were loud, clingy and the phrases "kapara" and "sababa" were annoyingly overused.  
My Israeli girlfriend mentioned people refer to them as "arsim", but Eilat also has a large tourist population from all over Israel, people come and go.

The beaches were nice in Eilat, but I found places like Acadia beach in Herzliya much more appealing.

Well I, friends, and family, would never go on vacations in Eilat. make of that what you wish

I've never even been to Eilat. I would go tp Amman for a close trip before I'd go to Eilat.

[politicallefty]

I've been following this topic for awhile now and this is my first post in this topic. Obviously, I'm hoping this is finally the end of Netanyahu. However, my reason for posting here is to ask a question that I hope isn't stupid and one I've been wondering for awhile. What are the main differences between UTJ and Shas? Most of what I know about them is that they're both ultra-Orthodox socially conservatives who want to keep the Haredim out of the military.

[Walmart_shopper]

How on Earth did UTJ get a plurality in Israel's largest city? (Jerusalem) How high is Jereusalem's Haredi population? Considering UTJ+Shas it must be close to a majority.

I wonder how the huge Haredi population impacts Jerusalem's local policy tbh, with all the religious restrictions and what not.

I've heard it's partially just Haredi choosing to relocate to the most important city in Judaism, which makes sense I guess. If you were an extremely religious Israeli Jew, where would you choose to live; godless Tel Aviv or the holiest city in the world?

Israeli posters might know better than me though.

Israeli cities are usually poorly integrated and operate as magnets for one of the several tribes in Israeli society. Jerusalem happens to be a magnet for the Haredi tribe.

[Walmart_shopper]

How on Earth did UTJ get a plurality in Israel's largest city? (Jerusalem) How high is Jereusalem's Haredi population? Considering UTJ+Shas it must be close to a majority.

I wonder how the huge Haredi population impacts Jerusalem's local policy tbh, with all the religious restrictions and what not.

I've heard it's partially just Haredi choosing to relocate to the most important city in Judaism, which makes sense I guess. If you were an extremely religious Israeli Jew, where would you choose to live; godless Tel Aviv or the holiest city in the world?

Israeli posters might know better than me though.

The haredim are a very geographically concentrated bunch. They like to live in their own settlements, towns, and historically religious neighborhoods. You'll fginad a ton of places where UTJ+Shas got below 3%. Then there are places like Bnei Brak which singlehandedly makes the Tel-Aviv region a tossup between the religious right and the various anti-bibi tickets, because of how many votes it has and how they ALL go to the Haredim. Jerusalem happens to fit this pattern, or at least sections of it. The haredim won the city in 2015 as well, this isn't unusual.

Does anyone have numbers on how Jerusalem has voted historically?

Once upon a time Jerusalem was the heart of Israel's bourgeois and secular intellectual community and was a mostly secular city.

[DL]

I've been following this topic for awhile now and this is my first post in this topic. Obviously, I'm hoping this is finally the end of Netanyahu. However, my reason for posting here is to ask a question that I hope isn't stupid and one I've been wondering for awhile. What are the main differences between UTJ and Shas? Most of what I know about them is that they're both ultra-Orthodox socially conservatives who want to keep the Haredim out of the military.

Shas is Sephardic and UTJ is Ashkenazi

[Oryxslayer]

Joint list has a list of demands (read minor concessions) for supporting Gantz at this stage. Mostly they are things that Gantz and Lieberman's vision of equality before the state - no positive or negative discrimination for various factions. Investment in Arab communities, stopping home and town destruction, investigating the issue of unrecognized towns, etc. The big one may be canceling the nation state law, which B&W is on record saying should be revised to recognize the diversity of beliefs and origins, rather than scrapped.

[Walmart_shopper]

Joint list has a list of demands (read minor concessions) for supporting Gantz at this stage. Mostly they are things that Gantz and Lieberman's vision of equality before the state - no positive or negative discrimination for various factions. Investment in Arab communities, stopping home and town destruction, investigating the issue of unrecognized towns, etc. The big one may be canceling the nation state law, which B&W is on record saying should be revised to recognize the diversity of beliefs and origins, rather than scrapped.

Ironically, amending the nation state law to emphasize equality and democracy might be a bigger legal coup than simply scrapping it, because then equality would have extra quasi-constitutional grounding on which to challenge a number of discriminatory laws and practices.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results in the two exclusively Christian villages:

Fassuta – Joint List 62, YB 17, DU 11, B&W 5.7, Labor 1.3, Likud 0.9
Mi’ilya – Joint List 80, DU 8.7, B&W 5.4, YB 4.4

And in the five other places where they are a majority:

Eilabun – Joint List 66, B&W 13, DU 8.3, YB 5.7, Likud 2.5, Labor 2.2
I’billin – Joint List 83, B&W 5.6, DU 3.7, YB 2.5, Labor 2.0, Others 1.4, Likud 1.0
Jish – Joint List 63, YB 22, B&W 7.0, DU 2.8, Labor 2.6
Kafr Yasif – Joint List 86, DU 4.5, B&W 3.1, YB 2.5, Likud 1.8, Labor 0.8
Rameh – Joint List 53, B&W 20, YB 12, Likud 4.2, Labor 4.2, DU 3.8, Shas 1.7

[Hnv1]

How on Earth did UTJ get a plurality in Israel's largest city? (Jerusalem) How high is Jereusalem's Haredi population? Considering UTJ+Shas it must be close to a majority.

I wonder how the huge Haredi population impacts Jerusalem's local policy tbh, with all the religious restrictions and what not.

I've heard it's partially just Haredi choosing to relocate to the most important city in Judaism, which makes sense I guess. If you were an extremely religious Israeli Jew, where would you choose to live; godless Tel Aviv or the holiest city in the world?

Israeli posters might know better than me though.

The haredim are a very geographically concentrated bunch. They like to live in their own settlements, towns, and historically religious neighborhoods. You'll fginad a ton of places where UTJ+Shas got below 3%. Then there are places like Bnei Brak which singlehandedly makes the Tel-Aviv region a tossup between the religious right and the various anti-bibi tickets, because of how many votes it has and how they ALL go to the Haredim. Jerusalem happens to fit this pattern, or at least sections of it. The haredim won the city in 2015 as well, this isn't unusual.

Does anyone have numbers on how Jerusalem has voted historically?

Herut usually had plurality even before 77. Mapai took some elections in the 50’s 60’s using their influence on poor immigrants

[Tintrlvr]

I've been following this topic for awhile now and this is my first post in this topic. Obviously, I'm hoping this is finally the end of Netanyahu. However, my reason for posting here is to ask a question that I hope isn't stupid and one I've been wondering for awhile. What are the main differences between UTJ and Shas? Most of what I know about them is that they're both ultra-Orthodox socially conservatives who want to keep the Haredim out of the military.

Shas is Sephardic and UTJ is Ashkenazi

Also, Shas has, mostly in the past, made overtures towards being a pan-Sephardic party (not solely for ultra-Orthodox Sephardim). Their vote is more or less exclusively ultra-Orthodox nowadays, though.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1175792648474509313

Lieberman pulls his recommendation of Gantz since the arabs are in, but that is it. 57-55. Gantz wins round 1.

[Blair]

Do we know Lieberman will do that?

[Oryxslayer]

Do we know Lieberman will do that?

He made an announcement saying he will not back anyone. He previously was in Gantz's corner, but has pulled out probably once he got the memo to save face. it's the equivalent of voting 'present' or 'abstaining' in some systems, he's not giving his immediate confidence, but we all know where his loyalties lie. The timing between the two statements suggests some level of coordination, like "we already have the votes, we  know you are  hesitant, vote your heart."

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Rivlin says he wants a grand coalition with a rotation agreement. The good news is that he seems to think Likud's insistence that this also throw in the other right-wing parties for good measure is ridiculous; the bad news is that when the KL MKs mentioned Bibi's legal woes, Rivlin pointed out that he hasn't been indicted yet.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Rivlin says he wants a grand coalition with a rotation agreement. The good news is that he seems to think Likud's insistence that this also throw in the other right-wing parties for good measure is ridiculous; the bad news is that when the KL MKs mentioned Bibi's legal woes, Rivlin pointed out that he hasn't been indicted yet.

Not particularly bad- an indictment should come soon enough, perhaps even before the deadline for government formation.

[Walmart_shopper]

Rivlin says he wants a grand coalition with a rotation agreement. The good news is that he seems to think Likud's insistence that this also throw in the other right-wing parties for good measure is ridiculous; the bad news is that when the KL MKs mentioned Bibi's legal woes, Rivlin pointed out that he hasn't been indicted yet.

After spending years warning about how the Likud and right wing had been shredding Israeli democracy and dividing society, and after an election that neither Bibi nor the right wing won, if Rivlin wants to use "but he isn't aKsHuAlY indicted yet" to somehow allow Netanyahu into government is truly insane. Rivlin more than anyone knows that Bibi doesn't belong at the Balfour residence especially after the election. He didn't push for unity in April. And it is grotesque for him to push for it now. There is a process for this, and it begins with giving Gantz the mandate without condition.

In any case, there isn't much Rivlin can do and I do think he will give Gantz the mandate.

[jaymichaud]

Rivlin says he wants a grand coalition with a rotation agreement. The good news is that he seems to think Likud's insistence that this also throw in the other right-wing parties for good measure is ridiculous; the bad news is that when the KL MKs mentioned Bibi's legal woes, Rivlin pointed out that he hasn't been indicted yet.

If he seriously means this then he's gone mad. Likud don't have the largest party, don't have the largest bloc, have nothing to persuade any parties with, and will have less recommendations by the end of it. Why do they deserve to rule?

Please just take the L and accept you missed the mark, cause it's gonna get a LOT more painful to watch at this rate.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

KL is now playing five-dimensional chess about giving Netanyahu the first chance at forming a government. This is getting downright surreal.