Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Walmart_shopper]

I see OSR is still posting in every international election thread about how FPTP is a miraculous system which every country on Earth needs....

The problem is thar Israel is an extraordinarily fragmented and tribal society, quite unlike the UK. There are not two Israels, or even three, but really at least five or six, all equal in size. Rather than putting up big tents to cover a broad part of the country, Israel lets each little minority create a kind of sub-society within a basically meaningless "Israeli" identity. It works, actually, in a wqy that fptp would utterly frustrate.

India is one of the most culturally divided nations in the world and FPTP has worked much better than a Proportional System would have

To the contrary, India strikes me as one of the most regressive and discriminatory examples out there. Instead of integrating minorities into the political system it either crushes or accomodates them.

[Hnv1]

Kan’s Exit poll was nearly spot on

[OSR stands with Israel]

I see OSR is still posting in every international election thread about how FPTP is a miraculous system which every country on Earth needs....

The problem is thar Israel is an extraordinarily fragmented and tribal society, quite unlike the UK. There are not two Israels, or even three, but really at least five or six, all equal in size. Rather than putting up big tents to cover a broad part of the country, Israel lets each little minority create a kind of sub-society within a basically meaningless "Israeli" identity. It works, actually, in a wqy that fptp would utterly frustrate.

India is one of the most culturally divided nations in the world and FPTP has worked much better than a Proportional System would have

To the contrary, India strikes me as one of the most regressive and diacriminatory examples out there. Instead of integrating minorities into the political system it either crushes or accomodates them.

In India, minorities are not discriminated against by the government and when it comes to religious law the problem comes more from the fact their isnt one common law : https://www.secularism.org.uk/news/2016/10/india-debates-replacing-religious-laws-with-one-secular-law-for-all/ . A proportional system would actually make this problems much much worse and make from removing these types of laws harder.


Most of India's problems for minorities are due to lack of law order which really cant be fixed by European style Law and Order policies but rather needs to move into the direction American Style Law and Order policies (though except on the War on Drugs of course) which also wont happen if you get governments which are extremely fractured every time.



If you want a proportional system for the Legislature to work, you would have to adopt IMO a separate powerful executive branch like here in the US.

[parochial boy]

I know the UTJ-Shas duo have a resilient floor, but do they have a ceiling? I.e. if the new government goes full secular, could the Haredi parties be the beneficiary of a religious backlash and win over Likud voters?

I'm curious too - wouldn't Shas have a theoretically higher ceiling based on being a kind of culturally Mizrahi protest option? Whereas I get the feeling UTJ don't go anywhere beyond the Haredi groups

[Walmart_shopper]

Does anyone have a link to a results page with a map and/or local and neighborhood results? YNet usually has something like this but it isn't there this morning (yet?).

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Does anyone have a link to a results page with a map and/or local and neighborhood results? YNet usually has something like this but it isn't there this morning (yet?).

https://z.ynet.co.il/short/content/ElectionMap2019/

[Walmart_shopper]

Haifa (so far) seems to be coming in rather strong for the left. I think in 2015 (or maybe 2013 Likud actually won the city. It appears to be trending back to the left.

[Walmart_shopper]

My Jerusalem neighborhood, on the other hand, is clearly going through the same Haredization that many secular Jerusalem neighborhoods are experiencing. A few years ago I briefly hoped that the city was on a rebound of sorts. That didn't last long, though.

[Hnv1]

Haifa (so far) seems to be coming in rather strong for the left. I think in 2015 (or maybe 2013 Likud actually won the city. It appears to be trending back to the left.

2013 was because YB ran with Likud. Haifa is packed with Russians

[Walmart_shopper]

Here is a question for Parrotguy and hnv. Why does Liberman do so well in Gush Halav? Is there a large Russian-speaking population there? If so, why and how?

[Walmart_shopper]

I know the UTJ-Shas duo have a resilient floor, but do they have a ceiling? I.e. if the new government goes full secular, could the Haredi parties be the beneficiary of a religious backlash and win over Likud voters?

I'm curious too - wouldn't Shas have a theoretically higher ceiling based on being a kind of culturally Mizrahi protest option? Whereas I get the feeling UTJ don't go anywhere beyond the Haredi groups

Obviously there is vestigial Mizrahi tribalism in Shas, but Mizrahi identity politics have become less salient as Askenazim lose hold of broader Israeli culture. In other words, the country has become more Mizrahi and fighting the man (which is what Shas always purported to do) is much less fun when you ARE the man. The people who just want to own bourgeois Ashkenazim now vote for Likud (who are also bourgeois Ashkenazim, but whatever). And, frankly, the distinction between Mizrahi and Ashkenazi Haredism is far less meaningful these days (even though Ashkenazi discrimination against Mizrahim absolutely happens among Haredim). Haredim are Haredim and Mizrahi Haredim have blended in with their Ashkenazi counterparts in dress, politics, and even spiritual leadership.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, I spontaneously fell asleep for 3.5 hours. Let's see what I missed.

[jaichind]

https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5591653,00.html

After counting 90.3% of all votes: Blue and White - 32 seats, Likud – 31, Joint List – 13, Shas – 9, Yisrael Beytenu – 9, United Torah Judaism – 8, Yamina – 7, Labor-Gesher – 6, Democratic Union – 5 and Otzmah Yehudit – 0.

It seems it will be Netanyahu bloc 55, Gantz bloc 56, YB 9

[Oryxslayer]

Likud names too watch: Gideon Sa’ar, Yisrael Katz, Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein.

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud names too watch: Gideon Sa’ar, Yisrael Katz, Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein.

Erdan said last night that since the Arab vote doesn't really count Bibi technically won a strong majority of (Jewish) votes and so will obviously he prime minster.

Friend, I just don't think that's how this works.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Shades of that old Soviet joke about Brezhnev closing the curtains on his carriage and pretending that the train is moving.

[Oryxslayer]

The commission says the final tally should come Thursday afternoon, Israeli time. We right now probably have the entirely, or at least close to it, of the national vote. The coming day will see stuff like Prisons, military, diplomatic, and deferred ballots all likely to come.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5591653,00.html

After counting 90.3% of all votes: Blue and White - 32 seats, Likud – 31, Joint List – 13, Shas – 9, Yisrael Beytenu – 9, United Torah Judaism – 8, Yamina – 7, Labor-Gesher – 6, Democratic Union – 5 and Otzmah Yehudit – 0.

It seems it will be Netanyahu bloc 55, Gantz bloc 56, YB 9

Not only psychologically, but also practically, in terms of Rubi Rivlin's decision-making process, having Gantz come out on top is probably very significant.

The Arab vote totals are coming in now and could possibly give the Joint List 14 mandates if the prison vote is strong enough.

[jaichind]

On these numbers would not the way out for Netanyahu is to lure Labor-Gesher to defect to the Netanyahu bloc with the offer of a bunch of portfolios ?  Orly Levy being a member of Likud in the past anyway.

[H. Ross Peron]

On these numbers would not the way out for Netanyahu is to lure Labor-Gesher to defect to the Netanyahu bloc with the offer of a bunch of portfolios ?  Orly Levy being a member of Likud in the past anyway.

That'd be suicide for Labor given their already declining numbers.

[Oryxslayer]

Also a fun fact: Rishon LiTzion keeps its crown as the closest thing Israel has to a 'bellwether.' In 2015 it was for Bibi by 7% - which makes sense since he ran far ahead that poll. In April it was for Blue and White by 1%, and the nation was tied with an advantage for Bibi. Now it looks like the Tel-Aviv suburb chooses Blue and White by about 3%, while the nation gives their party a slight lead.

Mind you, Rishon overall leans to the right, but the whoever leads appears to be a tossup with a slight favoring towards the non-likud ticket.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Here is a question for Parrotguy and hnv. Why does Liberman do so well in Gush Halav? Is there a large Russian-speaking population there? If so, why and how?

Nope, no Russians. I know one person from there, and he's been a Meretz supporter but pretty anti-Muslim. I feel like this village, composed of mostly Christians, is just more right-wing than the general Arabic population, and Yisrael Beiteinu always had some support there.

I know the UTJ-Shas duo have a resilient floor, but do they have a ceiling? I.e. if the new government goes full secular, could the Haredi parties be the beneficiary of a religious backlash and win over Likud voters?

I'm curious too - wouldn't Shas have a theoretically higher ceiling based on being a kind of culturally Mizrahi protest option? Whereas I get the feeling UTJ don't go anywhere beyond the Haredi groups

Obviously there is vestigial Mizrahi tribalism in Shas, but Mizrahi identity politics have become less salient as Askenazim lose hold of broader Israeli culture. In other words, the country has become more Mizrahi and fighting the man (which is what Shas always purported to do) is much less fun when you ARE the man. The people who just want to own bourgeois Ashkenazim now vote for Likud (who are also bourgeois Ashkenazim, but whatever). And, frankly, the distinction between Mizrahi and Ashkenazi Haredism is far less meaningful these days (even though Ashkenazi discrimination against Mizrahim absolutely happens among Haredim). Haredim are Haredim and Mizrahi Haredim have blended in with their Ashkenazi counterparts in dress, politics, and even spiritual leadership.

Still, Shas are more of a cult- they have their dead Rabbie they constantly invoke, warning that he's looking from the sky, and more than UTJ they present voting for them as a sacred, holy duty.

Also, the updated results have Joint List rising by 1 and Likud falling one by. So left at 56, right at 55. I'm actually happy with the result. It'll be interesting to see what the soldier votes change- it seems like Labour-Gesher and the Democratic Camp are pretty close, so if I have to wager, the main candidates to get one more seat from this are the DC and Likud, while the main candidates to lose one are UTJ and maaaybe the Joint List (though I strongly doubt it, the prison votes are a thing). It will be pretty ironic if the soldier votes get another Arab back into the Knesset (Isawi Farij from Meretz).

[Oryxslayer]

Sometimes  suicide is Sexy but...

On these numbers would not the way out for Netanyahu is to lure Labor-Gesher to defect to the Netanyahu bloc with the offer of a bunch of portfolios ?  Orly Levy being a member of Likud in the past anyway.

That'd be suicide for Labor given their already declining numbers.

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1174062898571874305

That door closes, if it was ever open to begin with.

[Walmart_shopper]

On these numbers would not the way out for Netanyahu is to lure Labor-Gesher to defect to the Netanyahu bloc with the offer of a bunch of portfolios ?  Orly Levy being a member of Likud in the past anyway.

Theoretically? Sure, I guess. But it won't happen for two reasons. One, it's obviously political suicide for Labor. It would go against literally every value and principle that Labor has embraced for 70 years. It would end the career of Shmulie (and obviously Perez). And for what? A stalemate government with a one or two seat majority that will only last a few months until Bibi is sent to jail? In the past Labor has considered this offer when it was the only chance to stop a far right government that otherwise would have a majority. Now Bibi has no such majority. He has nothing. The second reason is that one-seat majorities don't work, especially when ideologically mixed like that.

Amir Peretz isn't a great leader, but he isn't a charlatan.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Above all, it's interesting that the conception that Netanyahu is some unearthly genius of a politician was blown to pieces. I mean, for years, this was the situation:

Bibi: farts
Israelis: Wow! What a poitical genius. Gantz\Herzog\Livni has no chance.