Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Exit polls are out in just over an hour and I have absolutely no clue what is going to happen. I have no feel for things at all.

I have been disappointed by enough Israeli election nights now, thinking "oh this time he really is going to lose to (insert new excitable Ashkenazi centrist here)" and then Netanyahu wins anyway, so best not get your Hopes up. He always wins.

Exactly. Brace for more ludicrous behavior, jaded governance, and a hearty rise in deplorable land moves in the 90% chance Bibi wins again.

[Walmart_shopper]

Exit polls are out in just over an hour and I have absolutely no clue what is going to happen. I have no feel for things at all.

I have been disappointed by enough Israeli election nights now, thinking "oh this time he really is going to lose to (insert new excitable Ashkenazi centrist here)" and then Netanyahu wins anyway, so best not get your Hopes up. He always wins.

Those are my thoughts. I'll believe Bibi loses when I see it. Although I don't think he'll avoid jail no matter whst happens tonight, so his days are numbered.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Exit polls are out in just over an hour and I have absolutely no clue what is going to happen. I have no feel for things at all.

I have been disappointed by enough Israeli election nights now, thinking "oh this time he really is going to lose to (insert new excitable Ashkenazi centrist here)" and then Netanyahu wins anyway, so best not get your Hopes up. He always wins.

Those are my thoughts. I'll believe Bibi loses when I see it. Although I don't think he'll avoid jail no matter whst happens tonight, so his days are numbered.

You won't see it.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Exit polls are out in just over an hour and I have absolutely no clue what is going to happen. I have no feel for things at all.

I have been disappointed by enough Israeli election nights now, thinking "oh this time he really is going to lose to (insert new excitable Ashkenazi centrist here)" and then Netanyahu wins anyway, so best not get your Hopes up. He always wins.

Those are my thoughts. I'll believe Bibi loses when I see it. Although I don't think he'll avoid jail no matter whst happens tonight, so his days are numbered.

You won't see it.

You need to calm down

(But seriously, we're trying to have a serious discussion here, not bedwetting. Bibi has a good chance to win but you shouldn't derail the thread about that.)

[Hnv1]

DemCamp aren’t passing the threshold. B&W ate too much. Brace yourselves massive right victory in coming

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

DemCamp aren’t passing the threshold. B&W ate too much. Brace yourselves massive right victory in coming

Where are you seeing this?

[Walmart_shopper]

8pm turnout at 63.7 percent, on pace for a turnout of around 70 percent or so

[Hnv1]

63.7% at 20:00. Bibi is broadcasting like a madman. Right voters are going out

[Hnv1]

8pm turnout at 63.7 percent, on pace for a turnout of around 70 percent or so

Well at least one of my predictions will be right

[Hnv1]

DemCamp aren’t passing the threshold. B&W ate too much. Brace yourselves massive right victory in coming

Where are you seeing this?

Insiders from the exit polls and turnout data

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I can never remember: what time do we get the exit polls?

Also, Bagel, cease and desist. Sh!tposting isn't part of the culture of this board, even if it is of the US election boards.

[President Johnson]

My prediction now is that Likud will win by a margin for 3-5%, although I hope Benny Gantz will defeat Bibi.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

My prediction now is that Likud will win by a margin for 3-5%, although I hope Benny Gantz will defeat Bibi.

Do you understand the Israeli electoral system?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1174024753855770626

Also,if you were not posting in this thread at the time of last week at minimum, you should not be dominating the posts now.

[America Needs R'hllor]

DemCamp aren’t passing the threshold. B&W ate too much. Brace yourselves massive right victory in coming

Where are you seeing this?

Insiders from the exit polls and turnout data

I really hope you're wrong.

[Walmart_shopper]

DemCamp aren’t passing the threshold. B&W ate too much. Brace yourselves massive right victory in coming

That's what we all thought in April, too. It didn't happen.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

DemCamp aren’t passing the threshold. B&W ate too much. Brace yourselves massive right victory in coming

Where are you seeing this?

Insiders from the exit polls and turnout data

I really hope you're wrong.

But he is not, and that should come as a surprise to no one.

[bigic]

My unserious guess is - the pro-Bibi block (Likud, Yamina, UTJ, Shas, Otzma if above the threshold) at exactly 60 seats, just like in the last election.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

My unserious guess is - the pro-Bibi block (Likud, Yamina, UTJ, Shas, Otzma if above the threshold) at exactly 60 seats, just like in the last election.

That's my guess too. I went to bed expecting the right-religious bloc at 59 and woke up feeling just the tiniest bit more pessimistic.

I think Bibi's probably going to be #LockedUp soon enough anyway, though--even if the right-religious bloc somehow ended up at like 64 or so there'd only be so much time left to form a government and ram through an immunity law--so [shrug emoji].

[Oryxslayer]

DemCamp aren’t passing the threshold. B&W ate too much. Brace yourselves massive right victory in coming

Where are you seeing this?

Insiders from the exit polls and turnout data

I really hope you're wrong.

Always believe its Gevelt until you actually see the numbers.

Seriously, if you were not posting in this thread at the time of last week at minimum, you should not be dominating the posts now. if you didn't give us your attention then, don't try and pretend you deserve our attention now. The international board is not the  presidential board.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

DemCamp aren’t passing the threshold. B&W ate too much. Brace yourselves massive right victory in coming

Where are you seeing this?

Insiders from the exit polls and turnout data

I really hope you're wrong.

Always believe its Gevelt until you actually see the numbers.

Seriously, if you were not posting in this thread at the time of last week at minimum, you should not be dominating the posts now. if you didn't give us your attention then, don't try and pretend you deserve our attention now. The international board is not the  presidential board.

What does gevelt mean? I tried looking it up but cannot find a clear meaning.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

DemCamp aren’t passing the threshold. B&W ate too much. Brace yourselves massive right victory in coming

Where are you seeing this?

Insiders from the exit polls and turnout data

I really hope you're wrong.

Always believe its Gevelt until you actually see the numbers.

Seriously, if you were not posting in this thread at the time of last week at minimum, you should not be dominating the posts now. if you didn't give us your attention then, don't try and pretend you deserve our attention now. The international board is not the  presidential board.

What does gevelt mean? I tried looking it up but cannot find a clear meaning.

Scaremongering and expectations spin during the polling silence at the end of an election, basically. I think it comes from a Yiddish-derived idiom for "screaming bloody murder" but don't quote me on that.

[Oryxslayer]

DemCamp aren’t passing the threshold. B&W ate too much. Brace yourselves massive right victory in coming

Where are you seeing this?

Insiders from the exit polls and turnout data

I really hope you're wrong.

Always believe its Gevelt until you actually see the numbers.

Seriously, if you were not posting in this thread at the time of last week at minimum, you should not be dominating the posts now. if you didn't give us your attention then, don't try and pretend you deserve our attention now. The international board is not the  presidential board.

What does gevelt mean? I tried looking it up but cannot find a clear meaning.

See this is what I mean.

But if you are serious, gevelt is a yiddish word that loosely means 'fearmongering.' In such a small and connected country as Israel, a campaign or candidate has far more incentives to exude an atmosphere of fear rather than security, since the message will reach every desired ear. In larger nations, it is better to always portray a atmosphere of success or joy, because the message won't disseminate quick enough. Those that it does reach may also just take it as a sign of the  upcoming defeat and stay home, if the  polling station is far away unlike in Israel.

In 2019, before the polls closed, every major party had already tweeted or made some other statement stating that they were going to loose, turnout wasn't good enough, their vote had been eaten, or they were going to miss the threshold.

[Walmart_shopper]

I am also seeing a lot of Meretz gevalt. Nobody knows if it's real until 10pm. My hunch is that they are very close to the threshold and Bibi won't have a majority if they pass.

[jaichind]

Obviously what Netanyahu needs is for the non-YB Right to win a majority.  How important is it also for Likud to be ahead of B&W for Netanyahu to win?  Namely if B&W wins more seats than Likud is there not a risk that B&W will be given the first shot at forming a government and B&W could break Likud have having an anti-Netanyahu faction of Likud to defect to B&W ?