Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Walmart_shopper]

Ben Caspit reports this morning that last week Netanyahu convened the security cabinet BEFORE consulting military officials because he wanted to launch a war in Gaza without the consultation amd  likely opposition of the military brass that could (and apparently did) prevent a war for votes.

It's perhaps hard for especially Americans to grasp what war looks and feels like here, because the US is always fighting in faraway places nobody ever will visit. Here you feel war. War in Gaza likely means missiles in Tel Aviv and a northern front with Hezbollah lobbing rockets at Haifa. To think that Netanyahu (allegedly) tried to bring that upon the country because he wanted to brandish his security credentials before an election is, uh, there are no words. The man is unfathomably dangerous not only to Israel but to the whole world.

[JonHawk]

Hoping Bibi wins enough to form government. Not a huge fan of him, but better than the alternatives.

[Zinneke]

Ben Caspit reports this morning that last week Netanyahu convened the security cabinet BEFORE consulting military officials because he wanted to launch a war in Gaza without the consultation amd  likely opposition of the military brass that could (and apparently did) prevent a war for votes.

It's perhaps hard for especially Americans to grasp what war looks and feels like here, because the US is always fighting in faraway places nobody ever will visit. Here you feel war. War in Gaza likely means missiles in Tel Aviv and a northern front with Hezbollah lobbing rockets at Haifa. To think that Netanyahu (allegedly) tried to bring that upon the country because he wanted to brandish his security credentials before an election is, uh, there are no words. The man is unfathomably dangerous not only to Israel but to the whole world.

How would you evaluate Israel's civil-military relations in general given the amount of, er, generals that end up running as political entrepreneurs (usually based on their security credentials). Is it still independent or are there various political factions within the military itself that translate into support for certain parties?

[danny]

As of 10:00 the turnout is 15%, up from 12.9% in April.

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout is very strong so far. At 10:00 it was at 15%. That compares to 13.5% in 2015 and 12.9% in April. In fact, that is the best 10 am figire since 1984 and puts us on track for a turnout near 80 percent. Soon we will get more localized turnout numbers to see who exactly is flocking to the polls. Conventionally, and perhaps paradoxically, high turnout is good for Likud but also quite good for the left bloc, as it probably keeps Otzmah under the threshold and the Haredi parties to a maximum of 7 mandates each (they have 8 apiece now). Obviously way too early to talk about stuff like that, though, especially without better figures from the Arab community and Tel Aviv.

It is also worth pointing out that all public polling we've seen has assumed a low turnout. Nobody actually knows what numbers a high turnout electorate would create. Except for campaign pollsters who model this stuff, we are flying blind.

[Donerail]

Very sad election for the most part. I imagine there's going to be worse harassment than the hidden cameras this time...

Indeed!
https://twitter.com/LahavHarkov/status/1173872455892590600

[Walmart_shopper]

Ben Caspit reports this morning that last week Netanyahu convened the security cabinet BEFORE consulting military officials because he wanted to launch a war in Gaza without the consultation amd  likely opposition of the military brass that could (and apparently did) prevent a war for votes.

It's perhaps hard for especially Americans to grasp what war looks and feels like here, because the US is always fighting in faraway places nobody ever will visit. Here you feel war. War in Gaza likely means missiles in Tel Aviv and a northern front with Hezbollah lobbing rockets at Haifa. To think that Netanyahu (allegedly) tried to bring that upon the country because he wanted to brandish his security credentials before an election is, uh, there are no words. The man is unfathomably dangerous not only to Israel but to the whole world.

How would you evaluate Israel's civil-military relations in general given the amount of, er, generals that end up running as political entrepreneurs (usually based on their security credentials). Is it still independent or are there various political factions within the military itself that translate into support for certain parties?

The military leadership is an untouchable in Israel. Everyone loves and respects them except for the fringes. Because they are viewed as prudent, cautious, fair, etc. Thst sterling reputation is probably not totally deserved, but it is what it is. It also has a reputation for being broadly center left. Recently there has been an infusion of religious, messianist officers in the IDF, but they tend to hold lower ranking positions.

[Donerail]

Apparently Bedouin in the Negev have no way to reach polling stations as a result of a Likud petition, made yesterday, that bars the NGO Zazim from using buses to transport voters
https://twitter.com/libbylenkinski/status/1173809933583650817
Lots of polling stations are as far as 30km away from "unrecognized" Bedouin villages in the Negev — no public transit, so no car means no vote.

[Zinneke]

Ben Caspit reports this morning that last week Netanyahu convened the security cabinet BEFORE consulting military officials because he wanted to launch a war in Gaza without the consultation amd  likely opposition of the military brass that could (and apparently did) prevent a war for votes.

It's perhaps hard for especially Americans to grasp what war looks and feels like here, because the US is always fighting in faraway places nobody ever will visit. Here you feel war. War in Gaza likely means missiles in Tel Aviv and a northern front with Hezbollah lobbing rockets at Haifa. To think that Netanyahu (allegedly) tried to bring that upon the country because he wanted to brandish his security credentials before an election is, uh, there are no words. The man is unfathomably dangerous not only to Israel but to the whole world.

How would you evaluate Israel's civil-military relations in general given the amount of, er, generals that end up running as political entrepreneurs (usually based on their security credentials). Is it still independent or are there various political factions within the military itself that translate into support for certain parties?

The military leadership is an untouchable in Israel. Everyone loves and respects them except for the fringes. Because they are viewed as prudent, cautious, fair, etc. Thst sterling reputation is probably not totally deserved, but it is what it is. It also has a reputation for being broadly center left. Recently there has been an infusion of religious, messianist officers in the IDF, but they tend to hold lower ranking positions.

Would you say this is the initial political brand Gantz ran on?

[Hnv1]

High turnout is great for Likud sadly

[Walmart_shopper]

High turnout is great for Likud sadly

A sharp increase in Arab turnout would bump overall turnout 2 points. So would a more across-the-board rise in places like Petach Tikva and Haifa. Neither would be good for Likud. On the other hand if turnout is spiking in Bat Yam and Beersheva, it's probably good for Likud (although maybe for Liberman, too).

Likud's entire campaign was predicated on a low turnout election that would be determined by whose base turns out better (settlers/haredim/nail styists in Ashdod vs Arabs/Russians/dudes on scooters in North TA). The right base turns out reliably. The peft doesn't. Now with high turnout suddenly the deciding vote is by some rando small business owner and his teacher wife in Rehovot. I don't think that's a Bibi voter anymore.

But it's early and we don't really know whether the turnout will stay high or where the uptick is happening, much less what it means for tonight.

[danny]

A sharp increase in Arab turnout would bump overall turnout 2 points. So would a more across-the-board rise in places like Petach Tikva and Haifa. Neither would be good for Likud. On the other hand if turnout is spiking in Bat Yam and Beersheva, it's probably good for Likud (although maybe for Liberman, too).

Likud's entire campaign was predicated on a low turnout election that would be determined by whose base turns out better (settlers/haredim/nail styists in Ashdod vs Arabs/Russians/dudes on scooters in North TA). The right base turns out reliably. The peft doesn't. Now with high turnout suddenly the deciding vote is by some rando small business owner and his teacher wife in Rehovot. I don't think that's a Bibi voter anymore.

But it's early and we don't really know whether the turnout will stay high or where the uptick is happening, much less what it means for tonight.

On the whole turnout is definitely higher in areas of the Zionist left than Likud.

[Velasco]

High turnout is great for Likud sadly

A sharp increase in Arab turnout would bump overall turnout 2 points. So

I've read simewhere (likely in Haaretz) there have been efforts to increase turnout among Arab-Palestinian voters made by grassroots non-political organizations. Also that aside the Joint List, B&W, Labor and Democratic Camp campaign among these voters, but the Israeli Right doesn't bother with them. Anyway it's shocking to read that estimated Arab turnout was 63.5% in March 2015 and only 49.2% in April 2019. This helps to explain many things.

[Donerail]

Thread on UTJ's GOTV operation — impressive! If, you know, a little scary
https://twitter.com/jeremysharon/status/1173867206142320640

[Pericles]

I really hope Netanyahu does not get back in, but having low expectations and then maybe being pleasantly surprised is probably wisest at this point. This is a very interesting election and there are lots of unpredictable factors.

[danny]

Turnout was 26.8% at 12, compared to 24.8 in April.

[Hnv1]

Turnout was 26.8% at 12, compared to 24.8 in April.

We could be looking at standard 67% turnout.

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout was 26.8% at 12, compared to 24.8 in April.

Between 10 and 12 turnout slowed a lot. What looked like a nearly 80% turnout is now on pace to basically match the 68% turnout in April. If turnout continues to sputter it may end up being a low turnout after all.

I still haven't seen any numbers at a local level, and Arabs tend to vote later in the day anyway.

[jaichind]

Will there be a last minute Netanyahu appeal for Right wing turnout at the end of the voting day saying that Arabs are turning out in droves or is that one outlived its usefulness.

[Walmart_shopper]

Finally some local data is starting to leak out. The Lod municipality, a right wing stronghold with a large Arab minority population, reports only 16% turnout overall. But they usually have a low turnout. The Arab turnout is reportedly at 26% in the city, which is obviously much higher than the Jewish turnout.

[Walmart_shopper]

Will there be a last minute Netanyahu appeal for Right wing turnout at the end of the voting day saying that Arabs are turning out in droves or is that one outlived its usefulness.

He is holding a "Emergency Meeting of All Likud Officials Due to High Arab Turnout" literally right now. Because of course he is.

[Hnv1]

B&W are worried about turnout in some of their strongholds

[Oryxslayer]

Finally I'm awake! time to add my two cents to these things.

Ben Caspit reports this morning that last week Netanyahu convened the security cabinet BEFORE consulting military officials because he wanted to launch a war in Gaza without the consultation amd  likely opposition of the military brass that could (and apparently did) prevent a war for votes.

It's perhaps hard for especially Americans to grasp what war looks and feels like here, because the US is always fighting in faraway places nobody ever will visit. Here you feel war. War in Gaza likely means missiles in Tel Aviv and a northern front with Hezbollah lobbing rockets at Haifa. To think that Netanyahu (allegedly) tried to bring that upon the country because he wanted to brandish his security credentials before an election is, uh, there are no words. The man is unfathomably dangerous not only to Israel but to the whole world.

How would you evaluate Israel's civil-military relations in general given the amount of, er, generals that end up running as political entrepreneurs (usually based on their security credentials). Is it still independent or are there various political factions within the military itself that translate into support for certain parties?

The military leadership is an untouchable in Israel. Everyone loves and respects them except for the fringes. Because they are viewed as prudent, cautious, fair, etc. Thst sterling reputation is probably not totally deserved, but it is what it is. It also has a reputation for being broadly center left. Recently there has been an infusion of religious, messianist officers in the IDF, but they tend to hold lower ranking positions.

Also, the IDF has a very different relationship with the people and the state thanks to the universal draft laws. In most nations, we think of the  military a camp of nationalists, propped up by those who need prospects and lack easy routes to obtain them besides military service. Israel though sees almost everyone at some point in their life interact with the IDF. While the  top brass is still the top brass, there is a culture that views the IDF as not an abnormal institution or as something different from the people. So jumping from a high ranking military position to other careers isn't unseemly, since most residents in the nation made the same  jump at one point or another.

High turnout is great for Likud sadly

Worth repeating so everyone  knows, Higher turnout benefits softer parties that have mobile and younger voters like Likud, whereas a lower turnout election sees the loyal Haredi/Arabs/Kibbutzim become a higher percentage of total votes cast.

Thread on UTJ's GOTV operation — impressive! If, you know, a little scary
https://twitter.com/jeremysharon/status/1173867206142320640

To repeat something I read yesterday on Jerusalem Post: there are known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns in this election. Haredi and Kibbutzim tend to fall in the Known  Knowns category - these voters always will turn out at similar rates thanks to local machines like these. Known unkowns are the Arabs and Settlers - the Arabs should turnout at a higher rate than last time simply by forging the joint list to break the boycott from last time, and the settler vote is being courted by a lot of options on the right, and may end up wasting votes like usual. the unknown unknowns are everyone else , the normal Jewish residents.

Will there be a last minute Netanyahu appeal for Right wing turnout at the end of the voting day saying that Arabs are turning out in droves or is that one outlived its usefulness.

He is holding a "Emergency Meeting of All Likud Officials Due to High Arab Turnout" literally right now. Because of course he is.

B&W are worried about turnout in some of their strongholds

Gevelt is already in high gear it seems. To put this in perspective, last time, before the polls closed, every party had made a tweet or some sort of statement saying that they had lost the election, or turnout was not good enough, or they would miss the threshold. If one reads between the lines though, Bibi is far more scared this time around, last time he went down to the beach and told voters to got vote before enjoying their holiday.

[Walmart_shopper]

Party leaders so far today:

Bibi:  EMERGENCY MEETING THE ARABS AND HIPSTERS ARE VOTING IN DROVES.

Arab leaders: We are doing pretty good, I guess. But don't worry, Jews, not THAT good.

Blue and White: We are losing.

Shaked: I really, really don't like Bibi.

Liberman: Actually, we are fantastic. I hope it's for real.

So much spin.

[Zinneke]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/to-make-sure-pm-isnt-embarrassed-arabs-and-leftists-must-vote-in-droves/

Mickey Gitzin, a longtime left-wing activist and now head of the New Israel Fund’s Israel office, urges leftists and Arabs to vote, if only to avoid any embarrassment for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has spent the day warning of an Arab and leftist run on the polls.

“To prevent the embarrassing situation where we discover, God forbid, that the prime minister is lying, dear Arabs and leftists, please vote in droves. This isn’t an endorsement of any side, only a real concern for the integrity of the institution of the prime minister.”