Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Walmart_shopper]

Would a Zehut-New Right merger put off previous voters if either faction?

Maybe a few of the edgy Zehut people who think that Bennet is too square and establishmentarian. And, on the other hand, a few of the more secular New Right voters who are creeped out by Zehut's Third-Templeism. But frankly the electoral benefit would far outweigh those marginal losses if they can get across the threshold (which I'm actually not sure is a given even running together).

[Zinneke]

Would a Zehut-New Right merger put off previous voters if either faction?

Maybe a few of the edgy Zehut people who think that Bennet is too square and establishmentarian. And, on the other hand, a few of the more secular New Right voters who are creeped out by Zehut's Third-Templeism. But frankly the electoral benefit would far outweigh those marginal losses if they can get across the threshold (which I'm actually not sure is a given even running together).

Wait Zehut is non-secular?!

[DavidB.]

I think a Zehut-New Right alliance is also likely to scare off religious Zionist voters who aren't into the 'libertine' views of Zehut, voters who are not necessarily always opposed to marijuana legalization (a lot of them will be, though) but find Zehut's focus on this issue to be indicative of a broken sense of moral prioritization. And while the New Right is certainly on the right-wing side economically, they do pay lip service to vulnerable populations; the libertarianism of Zehut is on a whole different level. In addition, Zehut has a lot of randos/weirdos on their list.

I still think it would probably be a net positive for them to run together. Without Shaked, Bennett's chances seem to be pretty bad. And it's difficult to create the same kind of momentum that ultimately wasn't even enough for Zehut to get over the threshold. Add to this the obvious financial issues related to yet another campaign...

[Walmart_shopper]

Would a Zehut-New Right merger put off previous voters if either faction?

Maybe a few of the edgy Zehut people who think that Bennet is too square and establishmentarian. And, on the other hand, a few of the more secular New Right voters who are creeped out by Zehut's Third-Templeism. But frankly the electoral benefit would far outweigh those marginal losses if they can get across the threshold (which I'm actually not sure is a given even running together).

Wait Zehut is non-secular?!

No. It's base of support comes mostly from old Bayit Yehudi voters and is arguably the most authentically theocratic party running. The cannabis thing was a kind of gimmicky (but honest) extension of Feiglin's absolute libertarianism. There is a weird bohemian-anarchist element among the religious Zionist movement that I think he was trying to tap into last time around.

The actual candidates on the Zehut list are not all religious, though. It's more ofor a hodgepodge of social bete-noires (anti-vaxer, Feiglin himself, etc.).

[Oryxslayer]

Do we know approximately how many zehut voters were 'true believers' so to speak, and how many were attracted by marijuana legalization? The media and imagery that both came from zehut and was discussed in the media definitely focused on the later, so much so that Marijuana became the parties headline in US papers when they were discussing the election.

[Hnv1]

Do we know approximately how many zehut voters were 'true believers' so to speak, and how many were attracted by marijuana legalization? The media and imagery that both came from zehut and was discussed in the media definitely focused on the later, so much so that Marijuana became the parties headline in US papers when they were discussing the election.

No exact figures but bottomline most Zehutvoters came from traditional right wing strongholds. So the liberal agenda had very little pull with secular voters in the end

[warandwar]

I have smoked weed with an ultra-orthodox dude so IDK if it's necessarily incompatible lol (he was an anarchist tho....).

I don't think the ultra-religious in Judaism have ever demanded sobreity FWIW - as anyone who's been to a hasidic shabbat can testify...

[DavidB.]

I have smoked weed with an ultra-orthodox dude so IDK if it's necessarily incompatible lol (he was an anarchist tho....).

It's absolutely not necessarily incompatible from a purely halachic perspective. But weed is still not exactly associated with the socially conservative norms that are connected to a Haredi or dati leumi lifestyle in general. And Zehut focusing on (this is the key - not the support in itself) marijuana legalization is a turnoff for some of those voters who might otherwise be interested in Zehut (which is a minority in the first place, of course).

I don't think the ultra-religious in Judaism have ever demanded sobreity FWIW - as anyone who's been to a hasidic shabbat can testify...

A hasidic shabbat outside the Netherlands - ftfy. Here, even hasidim turn into Calvinists.

[DL]

Judging from the series Shtisel, there Haredim all seem to smoke tobacco like crazy. What is the religious justification behind tobacco = good; cannabis = bad???

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I don't think the ultra-religious in Judaism have ever demanded sobreity FWIW - as anyone who's been to a hasidic shabbat can testify...

The only time I drank at a party in undergrad was at a Chabad Purimspiel that a friend invited me to.

[Lechasseur]

Anything new on the government formation situation? From what I understand Netanyahu failed but I don't know what happened since.

[The Mikado]

Judging from the series Shtisel, there Haredim all seem to smoke tobacco like crazy. What is the religious justification behind tobacco = good; cannabis = bad???

It's not tobacco good, cannabis bad, it's both are OK but, as the Israeli posters have pointed out, making a big point out of being pro-legalization as one of your big issues is probably a sign that you're not really into the pious Haredi lifestyle.

What the earlier posters are saying is that a Haredi voter might have no objection to weed being legal and even see no reason to view smoking weed as incompatible with Halakhic religious Law, but someone like Feiglin who goes around making pot his #1 focus in his public appearances sure seems suspiciously secular in his chosen priorities.

[brucejoel99]

Anything new on the government formation situation? From what I understand Netanyahu failed but I don't know what happened since.

Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu) decided to block the formation of a coalition because of Bibi's compliance with draft exemptions for the Haredim. Aside from that, all non-Likudniks (& even some that are) were rightly mad about Bibi's conduct & the obscene proposal that is the immunity law.

As this was happening, Rivlin, the Israeli President (& a political opponent of Netanyahu), stated that he'd do everything in his power to prevent another election so soon if Netanyahu was unable to form a governing majority, so it was likely he would've selected Blue & White to attempt to from a government rather than immediately call for another election. Now, Blue & White would've been pretty unable to form a coalition too, having less natural partners than Likud for a coalition, so elections might've been inevitable anyway.

However, Bibi really wants to pass the immunity law ASAP so he can be shielded from prosecution. As of right now, Bibi is pretty much definitely going to get indicted, & the one & only way to avoid it is by passing the immunity law. The indictment is widely expected to happen on at his hearing that's scheduled for Oct. 2nd-3rd, so he drove the Knesset to dissolve itself & call for another election in order to take the choice away from Rivlin & essentially go for a mulligan on the election.

So, if he somehow forms a government in the week after the election, he'd still be able to pass the immunity law in time for his October hearing, a couple of weeks after the election in mid-September. It's not really looking all that likely, but it's the only option he has at this point to avoid the end of his political career.

[Walmart_shopper]

I have smoked weed with an ultra-orthodox dude so IDK if it's necessarily incompatible lol (he was an anarchist tho....).

I don't think the ultra-religious in Judaism have ever demanded sobreity FWIW - as anyone who's been to a hasidic shabbat can testify...

As a general rule, marijuana use for recreational purposes is regarded as contrary to Jewish law. So it's forbidden. Obviously it still happens, and I'm sure that there are rabbinic authorities out there who are more inclined to shrug at it. Nevertheless the point is that secular Israelis are far more likely to support and get excited about legalizing pot than religious or Haredi Jews.  It was obviously a gimmick to appeal to secular voters and it failed. People got pumped about Zehut because they liked Feiglin's super libertarianism and/or his creepy theocratic messianism. Zehut is simply too far ahead of its time. It is what Israeli politics on the right will look much more like in a decade or so.

[Walmart_shopper]

Judging from the series Shtisel, there Haredim all seem to smoke tobacco like crazy. What is the religious justification behind tobacco = good; cannabis = bad???

It's not tobacco good, cannabis bad, it's both are OK but, as the Israeli posters have pointed out, making a big point out of being pro-legalization as one of your big issues is probably a sign that you're not really into the pious Haredi lifestyle.

What the earlier posters are saying is that a Haredi voter might have no objection to weed being legal and even see no reason to view smoking weed as incompatible with Halakhic religious Law, but someone like Feiglin who goes around making pot his #1 focus in his public appearances sure seems suspiciously secular in his chosen priorities.

No, that's no correct. Both tobacco and marijuana are looked on poorly by rabbinic legal authorities. But people are more comfortable shrugging off rules against tobacco than rules against marijuana. A sizable minority of HaredI men smoke tobacco. Very, very few smoke pot.

[DavidB.]

Bibi has fired Shaked and Bennett from the government. Would this decrease the chances of Shaked joining Likud?

[Walmart_shopper]

Labor has decided to hold a new leadership election, but not new primaries. That's probably a good call.

Amir Peretz says he's running. I like him, but, man, Labor partying like its 1999 is as dumb as picking a right-winger ex-Likudnik to fix things simply because he's new and different.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Would this decrease the chances of Shaked joining Likud?

The Jerusalem Post says Bibi's refused to let her.

[Vosem]

#hottakeprediction: the right-wing majority after the September election will depend on Bennett, who'll pull the plug out of spite like Lieberman did

On a different note, hopefully Feiglin and Bennett/Shaked will be able to negotiate a joint list that makes it into the Knesset; they seem like better representatives of the Israeli right-of-Likud tendency than Peretz and Smotrich. Still personally rooting for Lieberman.

[brucejoel99]

Bibi has fired Shaked and Bennett from the government.

Bibi is now the Prime Minister, Defense Minister, Justice Minister, Health Minister, Education Minister, & Diaspora Minister.

It truly is the Netanyahu government.

[Hnv1]

Judging from the series Shtisel, there Haredim all seem to smoke tobacco like crazy. What is the religious justification behind tobacco = good; cannabis = bad???

It's not tobacco good, cannabis bad, it's both are OK but, as the Israeli posters have pointed out, making a big point out of being pro-legalization as one of your big issues is probably a sign that you're not really into the pious Haredi lifestyle.

What the earlier posters are saying is that a Haredi voter might have no objection to weed being legal and even see no reason to view smoking weed as incompatible with Halakhic religious Law, but someone like Feiglin who goes around making pot his #1 focus in his public appearances sure seems suspiciously secular in his chosen priorities.

No, that's no correct. Both tobacco and marijuana are looked on poorly by rabbinic legal authorities. But people are more comfortable shrugging off rules against tobacco than rules against marijuana. A sizable minority of HaredI men smoke tobacco. Very, very few smoke pot.

Don't what Haredi men you know, but they chainsmoke like crazies. Also weed isn't strictly forbidden, so Rabbis oppose it but it's not a strict ban Dehureita but rather a soft one Derabanan

[Hnv1]

Bibi has fired Shaked and Bennett from the government. Would this decrease the chances of Shaked joining Likud?

Well basically Bibi did the right thing, having them in interim government without a public mandate is unreasonable, 2 citizens sitting in the cabinet making decisions during the summer if there's a war in Gaza?

Though now our interim government is basically Bibi. It's quite a conundrum and a shame our constitution does not allow that president to sack the interim government and appoint a real temporary one (in the case where the interim government is the government picked by the previous parliament).


Anyhow, Shaked isn't going to Likud.

 

Labor has decided to hold a new leadership election, but not new primaries. That's probably a good call.

That's a terrible call. What if the new leader isn't elected as they were too few seats? why does Gabbay and Russo entitled to a spot?
New leader should get first and the rest can move up a spot.

Gabbay is a complete bellend.

[Hnv1]

Labour party news. Russo gives away his guaranteed spot but says he may run for leadership.
The party is a like a house with 6 tenants, 9 people running to be house committee chairperson, and the house having an eviction notice.

You can't be more finished politically 

[Walmart_shopper]

So far the election seems to be almost entirely oriented around religion and state, which is great for Blue and White and the Haredi parties and especially Liberman and an absolute nightmare for the Likud.

Bibi lives by the mezuzah. He may die by the mezuzah, too.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Aside from the draft law, what policies do the Haredi parties stymie that causes so much fury from the secular parties? I remember that old ad of Yair Lapid's father's party where the orthodox Jews are shown as a literal burden on a "secular" jews, so I know it's a big issue, but what do the seculars want?