NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[pikachu]

Early D primary polls

https://mobile.twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1424782027350552577

Everyone’s name rec seems low as hell but nothing which really changes my view that James should be viewed as the favorite.

[pikachu]

Unless she screws up big time, Hochul is in a strong position. And I don't think she will, she has broad experience in government and politics, knows how to get stuff done and has won races she was not supposed to win in the first place. She has also built a network of connections around the state and will come into play, and I'm sure Schumer, Gilibrand and the Clintons will endorse her.

We will have to see whether anyone serious actually runs against her in a primary. Maybe a left-winger, but I hardly see James entering since they're from the same party lane. Without serious ideological differences and lack of a scandal, it's hard to formulate an argument why you want to replace an incumbent. That also backfired with Joe Kennedy, although he was younger and more moderate than Markey. As for the general election, she'll easily beat Zeldin or this Giuliani clown. I think she may halt or reverse Democratic losses in the Upstate New York, especially with Schumer also on the ballot.

This goes off my response from the last thread, but again while I agree Hochul is in a relatively strong position, it’s hard to see her scaring anyone off in a primary and the establishment is definitely not gonna circle the wagons around her that quickly. Also, you really don’t a strong ideological argument to run a primary challenge and in this case, James could just run on her resume and representational politics – being AG’s given her the chance to boost her normie liberal bona fides (suburban Dem primary voters will love the NRA and Cuomo stuff), the opportunity to be the first black woman governor in the country is a big deal for Democratic voters, and the geography issue really really matters here – imo this more than anything will put her in trouble.  

Fwiw, I also think the incumbency effect is overrated in this case. If the primary’s in June, that’s eight months before the election and unless she gets lucky with a crisis hitting, idk what will be endearing her to NY voters that much.

[pikachu]

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1430547776572690439

Seems like a very solid choice, although I am disappointed Jumaane didn’t get it.

Jumaane would have been a good gesture, but seems like Benjamin is a very solid choice who's been engaged in criminal justice reform and public housing since becoming a state senator. He also provides a good balance to the ticket. I wonder whether this makes a Williams' gubernatorial bid more likely? Not sure about that, though Hochul should be fine. I'd only consider James a real challenge. However, she's probably not going to run and seek reelection to her post for which she's a top choice.

Although it's still very early, it looks like she does have a great start. Don't want to brag, but I said for quite some time people tend to underestimate her. On the second spot she unfortunately didn't have the chance to be more visible.


More stuff on Cuomo and her:

https://twitter.com/NickReisman/status/1430490287550484488

Hochul picking a downstate minority was expected + Benjamin isn’t a particularly intimidating electoral prospect (distant fourth in the comptroller race, and only third in his own Senate district…) so this shouldn’t have a major effect on anyone’s decisions on whether to run for governor or not.

[pikachu]

Jumaane launching an exploratory committee

Interesting note in the article on James too:

With the field of Democratic candidates still largely unsettled, Mr. Williams’s allies hope his move gives him an edge over other prominent New York Democrats looking at the race. Letitia James, the attorney general, is privately discussing the contest with party donors and officials, with her allies sounding increasingly bullish on the likelihood of a campaign to be America’s first Black female governor.

[pikachu]

Also, this wasn’t posted earlier, but James is still looking into it. Would be surprising to see both her and Jumaane run since they’d be drawing from a similar base.

[pikachu]

James delivered a "stump speech" at a gathering of NYC bigwigs.

Also, Ross Barkan brings up the idea that Juaanee should be making another run for Lieutenant Governor, not the top job. It makes sense imo - if James runs, she likely kills his strength with downstate blacks, and Benjamin looks like a weak candidate (he finished third in his own Senate district while running for comptroller ffs). 

[pikachu]

James has been making some campaign hires

In recent weeks, the team has made four significant new hires, most prominently Celinda Lake, the veteran Democratic strategist who served as one of the two lead pollsters for President Biden in the 2020 campaign, according to multiple people familiar with the hire and confirmed by one of the four people recently brought on board.

The addition of advisers like Ms. Lake, a longtime party pollster who has a background in electing female candidates, would strongly suggest that Ms. James is gearing up for a high-profile, competitive race — rather than focusing on her current run for re-election as state attorney general.

She has also hired Kimberly Peeler-Allen, a close ally and the co-founder of the group Higher Heights for America — a major organization dedicated to helping Black women win elected office — as a senior adviser and a campaign coordinator.

And she has brought on two operatives who have significant local and national fund-raising experience.

Ms. James is currently running for re-election as attorney general, but her campaign staff is expected to quickly transition to a run for governor if she ultimately challenges Gov. Kathy Hochul in what would be an expensive and historic Democratic primary contest.

[pikachu]

Atlas said James wouldn’t run tho. Anyway, it’ll be interesting to see if Williams stays in. My gut says he drops out (or maybe down to LG) because he has no shot with James in, but idk.

[pikachu]

https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1465337006603608070

LOL, clown car incoming.

I dunno why that many candidates think they have much of a chance. Other than Hochul, only James is at least a longshot. Perhaps we're seeing some dropouts before the primary is actually around the corner.

Hochul’s the weakest statewide Democratic frontrunner in the 21st century – she’s from the wrong part of the state, she’s still pretty unknown, the establishment hasn’t really circled around her, and she has a proven record as a weak statewide candidate. So, combined with the fact that is a powerful governorship (and arguably the most high-profile in the country considering this is where the media is) with no term limits in a state with a lot of ambitious Democrats who (probably rightly) see this as their best and only chance to be gov/senator means everyone wants to run.

Paradoxically, ofc, this all means that Hochul is way more likely to win now since her normally insufficient upstate base is the only one that’s not going to be split.

[pikachu]

Two biggest issues imo were Democratic complacency (anecdotal, but I know a lot of people who didn’t vote because they thought Hochul was going to win) and crime. Not really sure what you do about the latter. I suppose NY Dems can be more like Eric Adams and make it your entire thing, but then you run into the problem where you’ve created a monster that’s impossible to slay. I find it really amusing as a hater, but murders and shootings are down in the city since his election and he’s reaped no political benefit from it.

[pikachu]

Two biggest issues imo were Democratic complacency (anecdotal, but I know a lot of people who didn’t vote because they thought Hochul was going to win) and crime. Not really sure what you do about the latter. I suppose NY Dems can be more like Eric Adams and make it your entire thing, but then you run into the problem where you’ve created a monster that’s impossible to slay. I find it really amusing as a hater, but murders and shootings are down in the city since his election and he’s reaped no political benefit from it.

Always a good thing to hear, but what about other types of crime? My hot take is Cuomogate was the biggest factor

Yeah, other crime is up and mostly quality of life stuff. (Though also not by that much to warrant the media hysteria imo.)

I don’t think Cuomo mattered. My choice for underrated Hochul screw-up that hurt her is the Bills stadium deal. It’s probably the most high-profile thing she did. The optics looked pretty bad and obviously it was never going to have currency with downstate voters.

[pikachu]

Is this battle somehow.... helping Hochul? LMAO

Siena has her approval at 56/36, which I think is the highest she's ever gotten in their poll

https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/SNY0123-Crosstabs-SCRI.pdf

People often like politicians having a fighter mentality; they don't always care that much what specifically they're fighting for. Especially when it's something not having an immediate negative impact like a court nominee.

Important to remember that most people have no idea this is going on. It’s probably just a re-election bump.