NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hochul at +18 approval per Morning Consult

https://morningconsult.com/2022/04/28/governor-approval-ratings-2022-election/

Unless something drastic happens Hochul will win another term. Incumbents very rarely lose if they have an approval rating of 50 or more.

R’s won’t win NY, but they could force D’s to divert funding, hurting them elsewhere

Considering there will likely be a handful of competitive house races in NY, prolly worth it since NY is one of those states where once you get an incumbent in they can be hard to knock off.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just got my first ad for Hochul. Basically is betting on liberal turnout in NYC, which tbf is all she needs given NYC.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just got my first ad for Hochul. Basically is betting on liberal turnout in NYC, which tbf is all she needs given NYC.

For the primary? I guess she's definitely sweeping Upstate, as she did in the 2018 lt. governor primary. I could see her losing the Bronx to Williams here, though he won't do nearly as well as four years ago statewide. Still expacting him to place before Suozzi.

No it was for the GE going after Rs.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Got a GE ad for Zeldin dissing Kathy with usual right win talking points.

Seems to think showing a bunch of stock photos of minorities will win him NYC smh.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hochul goes "Dark MAGA" at Penn Station?

https://twitter.com/JimmyVielkind/status/1534896152646193154?s=20&t=p9WEgQia...

https://twitter.com/JimmyVielkind/status/1534989610140549127?s=20&t=p9WEgQia...

Thank god Penn Station is an absolute mess for how big of a station it is. However, can they please just make a normal station that is nice but not all WTC kinda fancy (and expensive). A high end shopping mall doesn't also function well as a transit hub.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Gotta say Hochuls campaign ads have been pretty decent and relatively in touch whereas Zeldins come across as right wing talking points in a nicer package

[ProgressiveModerate]

Antonio Delgado and Ana Maria Archila trading high profile endorsements in the battleground Lieutenant Gubernatorial primary.

https://nypost.com/2022/06/22/aoc-endorses-lieutenant-governor-candidate-ana-maria-archila/

Delgado picked up the endorsement of the Uniformed Firefighters Association of New York, becoming the latest labor group to endorse him.

Archila, the favorite of progressives, was endorsed by Mijente, and more importantly, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

I think the Lieutenant Governor's primary, at least on the Democratic side, is currently Lean Archila. She's got great energy behind her, is running a campaign clearly independent of her running mate, and the presence of Diana Reyna might just drain enough votes from Delgado to tip the primary to Archila. I would like to see someone, even one of the candidates, conduct a poll of the primary before the primary on the 28th, though.

I have doubts about this. I never heard of her before a few days ago.

As a NYer, I will second this; there hasn't seemed to be a very notable campaign for liutentn governor. Delgado has appeared in a few ads with Hochul and he is pretty much clinging to her and treating them as the default ticket, which will likely work for him.

Delgados electability in a D priamry is pretty strong because while he's from "upstate" and represents a swing district, he still is pretty liberal or at least inoffensive to most progressives, and is African American. He isn't in any serious danger imo.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Antonio Delgado and Ana Maria Archila trading high profile endorsements in the battleground Lieutenant Gubernatorial primary.

https://nypost.com/2022/06/22/aoc-endorses-lieutenant-governor-candidate-ana-maria-archila/

Delgado picked up the endorsement of the Uniformed Firefighters Association of New York, becoming the latest labor group to endorse him.

Archila, the favorite of progressives, was endorsed by Mijente, and more importantly, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

I think the Lieutenant Governor's primary, at least on the Democratic side, is currently Lean Archila. She's got great energy behind her, is running a campaign clearly independent of her running mate, and the presence of Diana Reyna might just drain enough votes from Delgado to tip the primary to Archila. I would like to see someone, even one of the candidates, conduct a poll of the primary before the primary on the 28th, though.

Rip

[ProgressiveModerate]

Antonio Delgado and Ana Maria Archila trading high profile endorsements in the battleground Lieutenant Gubernatorial primary.

https://nypost.com/2022/06/22/aoc-endorses-lieutenant-governor-candidate-ana-maria-archila/

Delgado picked up the endorsement of the Uniformed Firefighters Association of New York, becoming the latest labor group to endorse him.

Archila, the favorite of progressives, was endorsed by Mijente, and more importantly, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

I think the Lieutenant Governor's primary, at least on the Democratic side, is currently Lean Archila. She's got great energy behind her, is running a campaign clearly independent of her running mate, and the presence of Diana Reyna might just drain enough votes from Delgado to tip the primary to Archila. I would like to see someone, even one of the candidates, conduct a poll of the primary before the primary on the 28th, though.

Rip

I freely admit to being wrong. It isn't the first time, and it won't be the last time.

Yeah no it's aight I've been wrong plenty of times too. Commend you for the bold take though, especially since Archilla did put up a decent fight in NYC.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

She prolly dramatically underperforms Cuomos performance on Long and Staten Island margins cancelling at least part of her improvements upstate out.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

She prolly dramatically underperforms Cuomos performance on Long and Staten Island margins cancelling at least part of her improvements upstate out.

what makes you think that?

I mean he outright won Richmond and Suffolk counties and did very well in Nassau. I think being Italian helped him. I doubt Hochul wins either Richmond or Suffolk

[ProgressiveModerate]

As a NYer I think Hochul will win but by a relatively disappointing margin.

Firstly, the enthusiasm in NYC is overall bad, at least relative to 2018 and 2020. I could def see a scenario similar to NJ-Gov 2021 where Essex and Hudson counties just had really really bad turnout making things very close except now it's places like the Bronx. I have not seen a proactive effort on Hochul's part to really reach out to a lot of the city's Black and Hispanic communities either,

Secondly, Zeldin seems to be making genuine inroads into many of the city's Asian, Jewish, and other ethnic white communities. These groups are all overall unhappy with the current state government for a variety of reasons, and I could def see Zeldin coming unexpectedly close in a district like NY-06 (heavily Asian parts of Queens).

Thirdly, Zeldin def has Staten and Long Island appeal due to being Italian, being a Congressman from NY-01, and the very unique politics of these regions. Cuomo for instance was able to rack up some very impressive margins in these communities even outright winning Staten Island which Hochul will not be able to do.

Finally, I expect Hochul to gain some default ground upstate from Cuomo's 2018 performance, especially around Albany. It won't be anything super significant though and she still underperforms Biden upstate in most places due to the nature of the year.

Frankly, NYC and the state overall has a lot of problems right now that people are unhappy about, and when people are unhappy, they tend to blame the party in charge of state politics which in this case is Dems.

Schumer should easily win re-election but with a significant erosion of crossover support.

I think Likely D for Gov is appropriate. At the end of the day even in the worst case, Manhattan should net Hochul at least 300k votes, Brooklyn at least another 300k, and the Bronx 125k. Finding the votes to cancel out these margins is going to be very hard for Zeldin. Even without the 4 major Dem vote nets (Manhattan, Bronx, Brooklyn, and Queens), Biden still wins the state overall by about 6. I think the state should be blue enough for Hochul to hold but Zeldin has a theoretical path. Hochul + 12-15 is what I'm expecting right now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

As a NYer I think Hochul will win but by a relatively disappointing margin.

Firstly, the enthusiasm in NYC is overall bad, at least relative to 2018 and 2020. I could def see a scenario similar to NJ-Gov 2021 where Essex and Hudson counties just had really really bad turnout making things very close except now it's places like the Bronx. I have not seen a proactive effort on Hochul's part to really reach out to a lot of the city's Black and Hispanic communities either,

Secondly, Zeldin seems to be making genuine inroads into many of the city's Asian, Jewish, and other ethnic white communities. These groups are all overall unhappy with the current state government for a variety of reasons, and I could def see Zeldin coming unexpectedly close in a district like NY-06 (heavily Asian parts of Queens).

Thirdly, Zeldin def has Staten and Long Island appeal due to being Italian, being a Congressman from NY-01, and the very unique politics of these regions. Cuomo for instance was able to rack up some very impressive margins in these communities even outright winning Staten Island which Hochul will not be able to do.

Finally, I expect Hochul to gain some default ground upstate from Cuomo's 2018 performance, especially around Albany. It won't be anything super significant though and she still underperforms Biden upstate in most places due to the nature of the year.

Frankly, NYC and the state overall has a lot of problems right now that people are unhappy about, and when people are unhappy, they tend to blame the party in charge of state politics which in this case is Dems.

Schumer should easily win re-election but with a significant erosion of crossover support.

I think Likely D for Gov is appropriate. At the end of the day even in the worst case, Manhattan should net Hochul at least 300k votes, Brooklyn at least another 300k, and the Bronx 125k. Finding the votes to cancel out these margins is going to be very hard for Zeldin. Even without the 4 major Dem vote nets (Manhattan, Bronx, Brooklyn, and Queens), Biden still wins the state overall by about 6. I think the state should be blue enough for Hochul to hold but Zeldin has a theoretical path. Hochul + 12-15 is what I'm expecting right now.

Since you are a New York resident, I trust your judgment. Do you think a result of 56-44%, in line with the most recent polls that have had Zeldin in the mid forties, is reasonable?

Mhm, I would be pretty shocked if Zeldin started going above ~46/47% though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I must say I'm surprised we are talking about a Zeldin win as a possibility.

Has Hochul run a lazy or bad campaign?

Kind of like Oregon, I think there's an element of party fatigue at play just because Democrats have controlled the governorship for 15 years now. It also looks like the GOP messaging on crime/defund the police is resonating.

This, except in Oregon there seems to be a lot more commotion around the governors race. In NY I haven’t seen much action from either side though Zeldin def been getting headlines.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I must say I'm surprised we are talking about a Zeldin win as a possibility.

Has Hochul run a lazy or bad campaign?

Serious people aren't discussing the possibility of a Zeldin win.

I think Hochul will do relatively poorly for a Dem but Zeldin is going to struggle to win. Some of these recent polls are a bit flawed because of how they sample, and Hochul only winning NYC by 20-30% makes now sense despite concerns about crime and homelessness.

In order words, even in the worst scenario, NYC should net Hochul ~800k votes and Zeldin is going to struggle to cancel that out with upstate and Long Island, both of which are traditionally swingy and have some strong Dem bastions within them

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah Hochul really doesn’t have any brand, most just see her as “generic white lady”. Cuomo was well known, and had a particular accent and style of speech that felt in touch.

Also ngl the state assembly and senate in NY feel like a bit of a locked box

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just for fun, I kind of wonder how Cuomo would be faring if he'd stuck it out, assuming he didn't lose a primary. I think he may well have been on track to face the same fate as dear old dad.

In this scenario, are we assuming the scandal still got serious coverage or not?

If not, he'd easily win re-election and would face non-serious opposition.

On the flip side, if he still got all the bad press, he would face a serious challenger but they would over-nationalize the race to the point where it hurts Rs given NY's partisanship.

Zeldin's in sort of that sweet spot where he is a serious challenger but hasn't over-nationalized the race. I doubt he beats Hochul, but I think that's the main reason it's so close right now according to polls.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1586722282701045761

Republicans have been very good at getting the crime narrative on their side. It feels simillar to when Rs in Minnesota or Iowa start campaigning on illegal immigration across the southern border, even though those states have nothing to do with the southern border.

If Dems have a bad night in 2022, I think many will compare this R crime narrative to defund the police and basically saying in hindsights Dems never pushed back as they should've and just kinda let Rs run with the narrative.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is not un-common in these machine Democratic states. Republicans run against the machine but it is either the machine sitting on its hands, or even actively assisting, that then leads to a path towards Republican victory.

Also worth noting that Cuomo and his family as a whole, developed a strong personal vote with the Italian American vote in the down state area and thus it should come as no surprise that when he is taken out and replaced with a Western New Yorker, that there would be massive defections. Hochul is not going to get Cuomo's numbers on Staten Island obviously.

Staten Island rarely votes Democrat anyway.

It will manifest elsewhere, that was just the most obvious example. The Nassau margin is another example.

It'll be especially true in parts of Long Island and NYC proper where Cuomo got a pretty nut performance. The imbalance of Cuomo's performance downstate which was pretty amazing and upstate which was extremely poor is pretty remarkable.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Notably I've seen an increase in both pro-Hochul and anti-Zeldin ads on youtube lately. Seems like she sort of fell asleep at the wheel and only now are Dems taking this race seriously. Most of the ads are pretty generic, and discuss abortion or try and tie Zeldin to Trump/extreme Rs. Given that NY as a whole is pretty blue, that's not necessarily a bad strategy.

I do think Hochul will lose most of the swing congressional seats so we'll see how that bodes for down ballot Ds. I could def see Zeldin winning 11 or even 12 of NY's 26 congressional districts, but the NYC districts still vote lopsided in Hochul's favor.

On the governor level these would be my guesses:

Safe Zeldin: NY-01, NY-02, NY-011, NY-21, NY-23, NY-24
Likely Zeldin: NY-03
Lean Zeldin: NY-17, NY-18, NY-19, NY-22
Tossup: NY-04
Lean Hochul: NY-20, NY-25
Likely Hochul: NY-06, NY-26
Safe Hochul: All the NYC districts.

I suspect basically all downballot House Ds will outperform Hochul to some degree but she doesn't help their case.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Notably I've seen an increase in both pro-Hochul and anti-Zeldin ads on youtube lately. Seems like she sort of fell asleep at the wheel and only now are Dems taking this race seriously. Most of the ads are pretty generic, and discuss abortion or try and tie Zeldin to Trump/extreme Rs. Given that NY as a whole is pretty blue, that's not necessarily a bad strategy.

I do think Hochul will lose most of the swing congressional seats so we'll see how that bodes for down ballot Ds. I could def see Zeldin winning 11 or even 12 of NY's 26 congressional districts, but the NYC districts still vote lopsided in Hochul's favor.

On the governor level these would be my guesses:

Safe Zeldin: NY-01, NY-02, NY-011, NY-21, NY-23, NY-24
Likely Zeldin: NY-03
Lean Zeldin: NY-17, NY-18, NY-19, NY-22
Tossup: NY-04
Lean Hochul: NY-20, NY-25
Likely Hochul: NY-06, NY-26
Safe Hochul: All the NYC districts.

I suspect basically all downballot House Ds will outperform Hochul to some degree but she doesn't help their case.

You think Hochul will lose Pat Ryan and Josh Riley's seat? Would certainly be ironic given Hochul gave a boost to Ryan in the closing days of NY-19 lol

I think she's favored too. I think her upstate appeal has sort of faded due to polarization and given she was a congresswomen a relatively long time ago. Riley's district voted for Trump in 2016 and Ryan's almost did, and they both voted for Molinaro in 2018 for Gov.

The House races are going in these seats will be far more competative than how they vote statewide for Gov; if Hochul is winning them, Ryan and Riley have both won.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yup this is the Dems last hope in November

Is that Geddy Lee??

I think it's Drew Sabatini

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wonder if there’s already a mod for this race?
https://twitter.com/carbo_al/status/1587493312537264129?s=46&t=U9YI9Xc6Dtyca...

Hochul is an awful messenger by and large. It's really the D next to her name keeping her afloat.

I think this isn't quite an OK or KS situation though, yes there are prbolems in NY but not of that caliber.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wonder if there’s already a mod for this race?
https://twitter.com/carbo_al/status/1587493312537264129?s=46&t=U9YI9Xc6Dtyca...

Hochul is an awful messenger by and large. It's really the D next to her name keeping her afloat.

I think this isn't quite an OK or KS situation though, yes there are prbolems in NY but not of that caliber.

I'd expect a bit more from you.

Look I'm sorry but it's true. I can still align myself more with her than Zeldin but also believe her messaging and optics are terrible.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I must admonish Atlas posters, especially young men, that their personal hygiene, especially as to washing and shaving, does reflect on their personal judgment, especially when they further choose to broadcast their appearance online.

Please do not get the wrong idea from the above posts; while it is wrong to vocally criticize another's poor appearance rather than simply ignoring it, people will and should consider whether or not you've showered when you try to convince them of literally anything. I cannot stress this enough, based on my interactions with young men interested in politics and elections.

I didn't know you had access to Drew Savinki's schedule and had a schedule of when he showered. And I didn't know that having facial hair was a sign of bad hygiene.

No one said having facial hair is a sign of bad hygiene. I've had a beard since I was 17, but I always make sure to keep it maintained, shave once a week, barber once a month etc. Mr. Savicki seems like a nice guy, and he's made some great maps on twitter, but he looks like the smelly kid who sits in the corner of the class. I'm sorry but it's true.

I think he's autistic and autistic people can frequently struggle with hygiene (myself included). Also autistic people can become very obsessed with certain things, and he is def obsessed with political maps and such. Considering that, I feel like he's a normal nice guy who's unfairly frowned upon by much of society