NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Real Texan Politics]

The Cuomosexuals are pissed it seems.
https://twitter.com/washtimes/status/1587522187824664590?s=46&t=6dMp89_v3HyD...

[President Johnson]

I would actually love to see so many heads explode here if Hochul still ends up winning by my initial prediction: 58-42%.

[Duke of York]

The Cuomosexuals are pissed it seems.
https://twitter.com/washtimes/status/1587522187824664590?s=46&t=6dMp89_v3HyD...

Pathetic

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is not un-common in these machine Democratic states. Republicans run against the machine but it is either the machine sitting on its hands, or even actively assisting, that then leads to a path towards Republican victory.

Also worth noting that Cuomo and his family as a whole, developed a strong personal vote with the Italian American vote in the down state area and thus it should come as no surprise that when he is taken out and replaced with a Western New Yorker, that there would be massive defections. Hochul is not going to get Cuomo's numbers on Staten Island obviously.

[Duke of York]

This is not un-common in these machine Democratic states. Republicans run against the machine but it is either the machine sitting on its hands, or even actively assisting, that then leads to a path towards Republican victory.

Also worth noting that Cuomo and his family as a whole, developed a strong personal vote with the Italian American vote in the down state area and thus it should come as no surprise that when he is taken out and replaced with a Western New Yorker, that there would be massive defections. Hochul is not going to get Cuomo's numbers on Staten Island obviously.

Staten Island rarely votes Democrat anyway.

[AGA]

Given the recent Trafalgar poll, I consider this race a tossup. The momentum is clearly in Zeldin's favor. I would not be surprised if he hit 40% in Queens at this point.

[Duke of York]

Given the recent Trafalgar poll, I consider this race a tossup. The momentum is clearly in Zeldin's favor. I would not be surprised if he hit 40% in Queens at this point.

Trafalgar is a biased pollster that has all but admitted to making up numbers to get a desired outcome. Thats not a poll thats picking your respondents.

[AGA]

Given the recent Trafalgar poll, I consider this race a tossup. The momentum is clearly in Zeldin's favor. I would not be surprised if he hit 40% in Queens at this point.

Trafalgar is a biased pollster that has all but admitted to making up numbers to get a desired outcome. Thats not a poll thats picking your respondents.

Its polling was good in VA and NJ last year.

[Duke of York]

Given the recent Trafalgar poll, I consider this race a tossup. The momentum is clearly in Zeldin's favor. I would not be surprised if he hit 40% in Queens at this point.

Trafalgar is a biased pollster that has all but admitted to making up numbers to get a desired outcome. Thats not a poll thats picking your respondents.

Its polling was good in VA and NJ last year.

just about every pollster showed a Youngkin victory by late October. In New Jersey almost every poll showed Murphy at or near 50 percent. The undecided broke heavily for the Republican.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is not un-common in these machine Democratic states. Republicans run against the machine but it is either the machine sitting on its hands, or even actively assisting, that then leads to a path towards Republican victory.

Also worth noting that Cuomo and his family as a whole, developed a strong personal vote with the Italian American vote in the down state area and thus it should come as no surprise that when he is taken out and replaced with a Western New Yorker, that there would be massive defections. Hochul is not going to get Cuomo's numbers on Staten Island obviously.

Staten Island rarely votes Democrat anyway.

It will manifest elsewhere, that was just the most obvious example. The Nassau margin is another example.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is not un-common in these machine Democratic states. Republicans run against the machine but it is either the machine sitting on its hands, or even actively assisting, that then leads to a path towards Republican victory.

Also worth noting that Cuomo and his family as a whole, developed a strong personal vote with the Italian American vote in the down state area and thus it should come as no surprise that when he is taken out and replaced with a Western New Yorker, that there would be massive defections. Hochul is not going to get Cuomo's numbers on Staten Island obviously.

Staten Island rarely votes Democrat anyway.

It will manifest elsewhere, that was just the most obvious example. The Nassau margin is another example.

It'll be especially true in parts of Long Island and NYC proper where Cuomo got a pretty nut performance. The imbalance of Cuomo's performance downstate which was pretty amazing and upstate which was extremely poor is pretty remarkable.

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1587575908424376321?s=46&t=rYhPTkF2uXuoG...
Not the best strategy when you’re losing your grip as a deep blue state incumbent, but I admire her confidence.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Notably I've seen an increase in both pro-Hochul and anti-Zeldin ads on youtube lately. Seems like she sort of fell asleep at the wheel and only now are Dems taking this race seriously. Most of the ads are pretty generic, and discuss abortion or try and tie Zeldin to Trump/extreme Rs. Given that NY as a whole is pretty blue, that's not necessarily a bad strategy.

I do think Hochul will lose most of the swing congressional seats so we'll see how that bodes for down ballot Ds. I could def see Zeldin winning 11 or even 12 of NY's 26 congressional districts, but the NYC districts still vote lopsided in Hochul's favor.

On the governor level these would be my guesses:

Safe Zeldin: NY-01, NY-02, NY-011, NY-21, NY-23, NY-24
Likely Zeldin: NY-03
Lean Zeldin: NY-17, NY-18, NY-19, NY-22
Tossup: NY-04
Lean Hochul: NY-20, NY-25
Likely Hochul: NY-06, NY-26
Safe Hochul: All the NYC districts.

I suspect basically all downballot House Ds will outperform Hochul to some degree but she doesn't help their case.

[wbrocks67]

Notably I've seen an increase in both pro-Hochul and anti-Zeldin ads on youtube lately. Seems like she sort of fell asleep at the wheel and only now are Dems taking this race seriously. Most of the ads are pretty generic, and discuss abortion or try and tie Zeldin to Trump/extreme Rs. Given that NY as a whole is pretty blue, that's not necessarily a bad strategy.

I do think Hochul will lose most of the swing congressional seats so we'll see how that bodes for down ballot Ds. I could def see Zeldin winning 11 or even 12 of NY's 26 congressional districts, but the NYC districts still vote lopsided in Hochul's favor.

On the governor level these would be my guesses:

Safe Zeldin: NY-01, NY-02, NY-011, NY-21, NY-23, NY-24
Likely Zeldin: NY-03
Lean Zeldin: NY-17, NY-18, NY-19, NY-22
Tossup: NY-04
Lean Hochul: NY-20, NY-25
Likely Hochul: NY-06, NY-26
Safe Hochul: All the NYC districts.

I suspect basically all downballot House Ds will outperform Hochul to some degree but she doesn't help their case.

You think Hochul will lose Pat Ryan and Josh Riley's seat? Would certainly be ironic given Hochul gave a boost to Ryan in the closing days of NY-19 lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The 303 blue wall is solid Clarity has Barnes ahead and Shapiro is beating Mastriano I seriously doubt that Johnson or Oz are gonna overperforning Michels and Mastriano they will lose narrowly 51/49 but they are gonna get stuck at 49 like Mastriano and Michels are

It will be a major upset if Crist and Ryan won but polls underestimate blk and Brown and female vote that's why Trafalgar an R POLL has Zeldin and Ronchetti tied and they were wrong due to underestimate the Latino and blk support

[ProgressiveModerate]

Notably I've seen an increase in both pro-Hochul and anti-Zeldin ads on youtube lately. Seems like she sort of fell asleep at the wheel and only now are Dems taking this race seriously. Most of the ads are pretty generic, and discuss abortion or try and tie Zeldin to Trump/extreme Rs. Given that NY as a whole is pretty blue, that's not necessarily a bad strategy.

I do think Hochul will lose most of the swing congressional seats so we'll see how that bodes for down ballot Ds. I could def see Zeldin winning 11 or even 12 of NY's 26 congressional districts, but the NYC districts still vote lopsided in Hochul's favor.

On the governor level these would be my guesses:

Safe Zeldin: NY-01, NY-02, NY-011, NY-21, NY-23, NY-24
Likely Zeldin: NY-03
Lean Zeldin: NY-17, NY-18, NY-19, NY-22
Tossup: NY-04
Lean Hochul: NY-20, NY-25
Likely Hochul: NY-06, NY-26
Safe Hochul: All the NYC districts.

I suspect basically all downballot House Ds will outperform Hochul to some degree but she doesn't help their case.

You think Hochul will lose Pat Ryan and Josh Riley's seat? Would certainly be ironic given Hochul gave a boost to Ryan in the closing days of NY-19 lol

I think she's favored too. I think her upstate appeal has sort of faded due to polarization and given she was a congresswomen a relatively long time ago. Riley's district voted for Trump in 2016 and Ryan's almost did, and they both voted for Molinaro in 2018 for Gov.

The House races are going in these seats will be far more competative than how they vote statewide for Gov; if Hochul is winning them, Ryan and Riley have both won.

[warandwar]

Also worth noting that Cuomo and his family as a whole, developed a strong personal vote with the Italian American vote in the down state area

Do you have any data at all to back this up? First of all, it isnt 1920, there are plenty of Italians outside of "down-state." Second of all, if you go back to see the actual primary results, you'll see that Cuomo had a strong personal vote in *Western New York* - he has been dumping tons of money into the machines there through the state development agencies (google buffalo billions). There isn't an Italian American vote and hasnt been for decades.

People dont know what "machines" are. It is no one's fault - the media doesnt portray them accurately at all. But between 2018 and 2022, the Dem machine's big "TURNOUT" button fell apart - all of the traditional devices (churches, street outreach, dem clubs, nycha TA) were closed. Cuomo's personal network isn't among paisanos, but Clubs and Churches, especially a large network of Black churches. Combination of dropping off during covid, uncompetitive primaries, and cuomo's revenge means traditional mobilization infrastructure has atrophied.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Also worth noting that Cuomo and his family as a whole, developed a strong personal vote with the Italian American vote in the down state area

Do you have any data at all to back this up? First of all, it isnt 1920, there are plenty of Italians outside of "down-state." Second of all, if you go back to see the actual primary results, you'll see that Cuomo had a strong personal vote in *Western New York* - he has been dumping tons of money into the machines there through the state development agencies (google buffalo billions). There isn't an Italian American vote and hasnt been for decades.

People dont know what "machines" are. It is no one's fault - the media doesnt portray them accurately at all. But between 2018 and 2022, the Dem machine's big "TURNOUT" button fell apart - all of the traditional devices (churches, street outreach, dem clubs, nycha TA) were closed. Cuomo's personal network isn't among paisanos, but Clubs and Churches, especially a large network of Black churches. Combination of dropping off during covid, uncompetitive primaries, and cuomo's revenge means traditional mobilization infrastructure has atrophied.

It would have been more relevant to say "This isn't 1970", but then of course that wouldn't work so well considering how far back Cuomo's family goes in New York politics.

First of all, I am not the first one who has commented on this dynamic on this forum, going as far back to 2010.

Secondly, of course Cuomo's operation included more than just Italians, but I wasn't talking about "his whole operation" if you would actually bother to read my post and not the clipped job you did on it, reading what you want to see to make an irrelevant point to mine which still stands.  

Thirdly, the point that you missed was "the first to flip back" would be his outsized performances on Staten Island and in Nassau, which is mostly going to be Italians who loved his father but otherwise probably would be favorable towards the Republicans in "most other circumstances". Its similar to the Casey effect in Pennsylvania, who while sure Western PA was more Democratic back then as well as NE PA, would cut still further into the historically GOP PA in rural PA as well.

Fourthly, I am very much aware of Cuomo's investments in Western NY, I watched his state of the state speeches frequently.

Lastly, as to the other groups, especially parts of the minority vote, I have referenced that already in previous posts on this topic as being the next wave of voters that Zeldin would need to flip some of in down state to have a chance, more so among Latino and Asian voters than African-Americans obviously.

People dont know what "machines" are. It is no one's fault - the media doesnt portray them accurately at all. But between 2018 and 2022, the Dem machine's big "TURNOUT" button fell apart - all of the traditional devices (churches, street outreach, dem clubs, nycha TA) were closed. Cuomo's personal network isn't among paisanos, but Clubs and Churches, especially a large network of Black churches. Combination of dropping off during covid, uncompetitive primaries, and cuomo's revenge means traditional mobilization infrastructure has atrophied.

The real question is, what do you think other people think "machines" are as to make this criticism an accurate one in first place, or how the media has misled them to think otherwise?

Also it is worth noting that my comment about the machine's role was generalized and examples I had in mind were MA 2010 special and NJ 2013 Governor when I posted it. My second comment actually pointed away from the stated situation regarding the machine and basically reads as "its less about the machine because in this case some of the Cuomo vote is a more natural Republican vote that any effective down state Republican would peel back first, so of course there would be Cuomo supporters among Zeldin's ranks with Cuomo not on the ballot".

Take my advice, don't presume everyone else is automatically stupid because they have a different analysis of the situation from you.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/joelweingart_/status/1587889740384276480?s=46&t=5gdVVXTa...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/NYCGreenfield/status/1587898010628870145?t=LoBdLnFM77YSdgr7g...

Ironic against a Jewish Republican.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/NYCGreenfield/status/1587898010628870145?t=LoBdLnFM77YSdgr7g...

Ironic against a Jewish Republican.

When was the last time they endorsed a Republican?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/NYCGreenfield/status/1587898010628870145?t=LoBdLnFM77YSdgr7g...
Ironic against a Jewish Republican.

When was the last time they endorsed a Republican?

Trump

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/NYCGreenfield/status/1587898010628870145?t=LoBdLnFM77YSdgr7g...
Ironic against a Jewish Republican.

When was the last time they endorsed a Republican?

Trump

Why would they be backing Hochul and Maloney then? Do they think those politicians will better represent their interests?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/NYCGreenfield/status/1587898010628870145?t=LoBdLnFM77YSdgr7g...
Ironic against a Jewish Republican.

When was the last time they endorsed a Republican?

Trump

Why would they be backing Hochul and Maloney then? Do they think those politicians will better represent their interests?

My guess is they know Hochul will win so they don't want to alienate her and risk having funding cut.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Lawler/Zeldin literally got an orthodox endorsement the other day. It'll probably cancel out. Maloneys district is pretty educated though so I wouldn't be surprised if he eked it out even in an R wave year