NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Orwell]

I think it would be funny if Hochul were to get North Korean margains in upset like Adkins did in coal country but still lose

[Orwell]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1581476555343114240?cxt=HHwWgMCt3Ymjx...
Could Zeldin pull this one off?

I doubt it, but after what we saw in New Jersey in 2021,  I wouldn't say that it is impossible. I think if Zeldin is able to capture what is left of the Giuliani coalition meaning not getting totally destroyed in 3 of the 5 Burroughs, keeping Queens semi-competitive and killing Hochul in Richmond, while killing it out on Long Island. If he is successful in that (Big IF) he could have a chance upstate, but turnout matters a lot, and some of those r-leaning groups in Upstate don't turnout in midterms as well as Presidential elections. Hochul by 6-7 seems like a fair bet, but if Zeldin can get great numbers in the downstate region he can make it a race, but I don't know if his appeal will translate into anything.

[Orwell]

If Zeldin wins I will leave the forum for a year.

I think there is a decent possibility with how close the polling is.

I don't think Zeldin will win but he does have like a 5% chance of winning I guess, so it's a decent bet to make since he's unlikely to be wrong

[Orwell]

I must say I'm surprised we are talking about a Zeldin win as a possibility.

Has Hochul run a lazy or bad campaign?

Kind of like Oregon, I think there's an element of party fatigue at play just because Democrats have controlled the governorship for 15 years now. It also looks like the GOP messaging on crime/defund the police is resonating.

Doesn't New York rank like 27th in crime nationwide? Not just that, but Hochul isn't someone who I imagine "defund the police" works on.

It doesn't matter how high crime really is, everyone who runs on "crime and drugs", is just using it as a dog whistle.

[Orwell]

Will Zeldin win the jewish vote ?

No chance in hell, the Jewish vote is much more Dem-leaning on average than basically any ethnic or minority group outside of African-Americans.


    Jews are a part of the Democratic party's core base.

[Orwell]

Will Zeldin win the jewish vote ?

No chance in hell, the Jewish vote is much more Dem-leaning on average than basically any ethnic or minority group outside of African-Americans.


    Jews are a part of the Democratic party's core base.

You’re right although the Jewish vote in New York is less democrat than in most of the country because of the higher percentage of Orthodox Jews. Zeldin has made appealing to Orthodox Jews a key part of his coalition so he may do well although he certainly won’t win overall.

Yea, but overall just because of the sheer number of Jewish people in New York they're a major part of the Democratic base, IIRC non-Orthodox jews in New York skew a little bit more Democratic than elsewhere in the country too.

[Orwell]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TPqLwaIlsM

Just saw that Biden made an appearance in New York a couple days ago, and told a bald-faced lie about Gas prices. But hey, He was only off by at least $2.58.

[Orwell]

Zeldin has a better shot at winning here than Hoffmeister does in Okie

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Zeldin has a better shot at winning here than Hoffmeister does in Okie

Nah.

The only good poll in Okie has Stitt +9, but we have multiple polls where Zeldin is closer.

[Orwell]

Yup this is the Dems last hope in November

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Lol u Libs are in denial, Hochul will win but it will be narrow.

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James Dolan's PAC is spending around 600k to keep the MSG tax break support Hochul. "Endorsed by James Dolan" seems like an effective attack on Hochul, lol.

Dolan is trying to depress NYC turnout even more

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James Dolan's PAC is spending around 600k to keep the MSG tax break support Hochul. "Endorsed by James Dolan" seems like an effective attack on Hochul, lol.

I have no idea who that is and I doubt many other people do.

He owns the Knicks and is widely despised in New York, he's banned multiple fans for yelling at him to sell the team.

[Orwell]

Why would Adams be the fall guy lol, Dems are in disarray.

[Orwell]

Sounds like an opinion piece to me. Every poll but Republican partisans have her at 50 or more . There is simply no evidence for this at all.

We don't actually know where Democratic internals have her because they haven't released any, but this story citing Democratic operatives on background suggests they're not rosy. (Unless this ostensible news story or its sources actually have ulterior motives, which would be harrowing a revelation for Our Democracy.

His claims are not credible. It doesn’t even say anonymous sources.

Every claim benefitting the Democrat party is positive while every claim against the Democrat party (widely unpopular) is podunk? Check your bias.