NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[ProgressiveModerate]

Could you see the NYC GOP doing well in the 2025 city council elections, bronz?

They currently have 5 seats in the city council, that isn't like the watershed 7 seats they had under Mayor Giuliani but they could add more, especially in the Canarsie area or Elmhurst with Latino voters...

I don't see another Republican mayor soon......however.....they would have to win Democrats and Independents...

I am surprised the NYGOP base did not move to FL or PA yet....they're still in the neighborhoods

I agree they could add more, but def not from the Canarsie area..



They already have the few Staten Island and South Brooklyn seats, their next targets should be Asian areas such as Flushing where Zeldin came in striking distance.

In addition to their current seats, some of their best targets imo are:

District 30, Biden + 14, based around Middle Village which is basically like "white flight" within the city itself. It's a realtively transit desert, pretty white, and notably less dense than the surrounding areas. Zeldin def won this district.

District 43, Biden + 12, heavily Asian district, usually very low turnout, and def voted for Zeldin in 2022. These are some of the more culturally conservative Asian communities in Bensonhurst.

District 44, Trump + 64, basically represented by a conservaDem rn with ties to the Orthodox Jewish community.

Honestly though, outside of these, any other possibilities require some huge re-alignment. I think the Asian seats out in Queens could be possible down the road if they put in the work to actually appeal to these communities.

[Suburbia]

Could you see the NYC GOP doing well in the 2025 city council elections, bronz?

They currently have 5 seats in the city council, that isn't like the watershed 7 seats they had under Mayor Giuliani but they could add more, especially in the Canarsie area or Elmhurst with Latino voters...

I don't see another Republican mayor soon......however.....they would have to win Democrats and Independents...

I am surprised the NYGOP base did not move to FL or PA yet....they're still in the neighborhoods

I agree they could add more, but def not from the Canarsie area..



They already have the few Staten Island and South Brooklyn seats, their next targets should be Asian areas such as Flushing where Zeldin came in striking distance.

In addition to their current seats, some of their best targets imo are:

District 30, Biden + 14, based around Middle Village which is basically like "white flight" within the city itself. It's a realtively transit desert, pretty white, and notably less dense than the surrounding areas. Zeldin def won this district.

District 43, Biden + 12, heavily Asian district, usually very low turnout, and def voted for Zeldin in 2022. These are some of the more culturally conservative Asian communities in Bensonhurst.

District 44, Trump + 64, basically represented by a conservaDem rn with ties to the Orthodox Jewish community.

Honestly though, outside of these, any other possibilities require some huge re-alignment. I think the Asian seats out in Queens could be possible down the road if they put in the work to actually appeal to these communities.

True. Canarsie is now African American/Caribbean, although they are still some Italians there.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Could you see the NYC GOP doing well in the 2025 city council elections, bronz?

They currently have 5 seats in the city council, that isn't like the watershed 7 seats they had under Mayor Giuliani but they could add more, especially in the Canarsie area or Elmhurst with Latino voters...

I don't see another Republican mayor soon......however.....they would have to win Democrats and Independents...

I am surprised the NYGOP base did not move to FL or PA yet....they're still in the neighborhoods

I agree they could add more, but def not from the Canarsie area..



They already have the few Staten Island and South Brooklyn seats, their next targets should be Asian areas such as Flushing where Zeldin came in striking distance.

In addition to their current seats, some of their best targets imo are:

District 30, Biden + 14, based around Middle Village which is basically like "white flight" within the city itself. It's a realtively transit desert, pretty white, and notably less dense than the surrounding areas. Zeldin def won this district.

District 43, Biden + 12, heavily Asian district, usually very low turnout, and def voted for Zeldin in 2022. These are some of the more culturally conservative Asian communities in Bensonhurst.

District 44, Trump + 64, basically represented by a conservaDem rn with ties to the Orthodox Jewish community.

Honestly though, outside of these, any other possibilities require some huge re-alignment. I think the Asian seats out in Queens could be possible down the road if they put in the work to actually appeal to these communities.

True. Canarsie is now African American/Caribbean, although they are still some Italians there.

Yeah, Canarsie is what most NYers point to as *the* "hood".

[Badger]

Could you see the NYC GOP doing well in the 2025 city council elections, bronz?

They currently have 5 seats in the city council, that isn't like the watershed 7 seats they had under Mayor Giuliani but they could add more, especially in the Canarsie area or Elmhurst with Latino voters...

I don't see another Republican mayor soon......however.....they would have to win Democrats and Independents...

I am surprised the NYGOP base did not move to FL or PA yet....they're still in the neighborhoods

I agree they could add more, but def not from the Canarsie area..



They already have the few Staten Island and South Brooklyn seats, their next targets should be Asian areas such as Flushing where Zeldin came in striking distance.

In addition to their current seats, some of their best targets imo are:

District 30, Biden + 14, based around Middle Village which is basically like "white flight" within the city itself. It's a realtively transit desert, pretty white, and notably less dense than the surrounding areas. Zeldin def won this district.

District 43, Biden + 12, heavily Asian district, usually very low turnout, and def voted for Zeldin in 2022. These are some of the more culturally conservative Asian communities in Bensonhurst.

District 44, Trump + 64, basically represented by a conservaDem rn with ties to the Orthodox Jewish community.

Honestly though, outside of these, any other possibilities require some huge re-alignment. I think the Asian seats out in Queens could be possible down the road if they put in the work to actually appeal to these communities.

True. Canarsie is now African American/Caribbean, although they are still some Italians there.

Yeah, Canarsie is what most NYers point to as *the* "hood".

That's a little surprising. Yes, it's about 80% black and only about 5% white, but the rate of homeownership is a bit higher than the city-wide median, and the crime rate and poverty rate are both a bit lower than average. All at least according to Wikipedia

[warandwar]

Could you see the NYC GOP doing well in the 2025 city council elections, bronz?

They currently have 5 seats in the city council, that isn't like the watershed 7 seats they had under Mayor Giuliani but they could add more, especially in the Canarsie area or Elmhurst with Latino voters...

I don't see another Republican mayor soon......however.....they would have to win Democrats and Independents...

I am surprised the NYGOP base did not move to FL or PA yet....they're still in the neighborhoods

I agree they could add more, but def not from the Canarsie area..



They already have the few Staten Island and South Brooklyn seats, their next targets should be Asian areas such as Flushing where Zeldin came in striking distance.

In addition to their current seats, some of their best targets imo are:

District 30, Biden + 14, based around Middle Village which is basically like "white flight" within the city itself. It's a realtively transit desert, pretty white, and notably less dense than the surrounding areas. Zeldin def won this district.

District 43, Biden + 12, heavily Asian district, usually very low turnout, and def voted for Zeldin in 2022. These are some of the more culturally conservative Asian communities in Bensonhurst.

District 44, Trump + 64, basically represented by a conservaDem rn with ties to the Orthodox Jewish community.

Honestly though, outside of these, any other possibilities require some huge re-alignment. I think the Asian seats out in Queens could be possible down the road if they put in the work to actually appeal to these communities.

True. Canarsie is now African American/Caribbean, although they are still some Italians there.

Yeah, Canarsie is what most NYers point to as *the* "hood".

No one has ever done this to me, and I have worked in Canarsie. It's where people grow up. It's the kind of place a city employee could afford to buy a house in 20 or 30 years ago.

Council elections are 2023, not 2025!

[Suburbia]

Could you see the NYC GOP doing well in the 2025 city council elections, bronz?

They currently have 5 seats in the city council, that isn't like the watershed 7 seats they had under Mayor Giuliani but they could add more, especially in the Canarsie area or Elmhurst with Latino voters...

I don't see another Republican mayor soon......however.....they would have to win Democrats and Independents...

I am surprised the NYGOP base did not move to FL or PA yet....they're still in the neighborhoods

I agree they could add more, but def not from the Canarsie area..



They already have the few Staten Island and South Brooklyn seats, their next targets should be Asian areas such as Flushing where Zeldin came in striking distance.

In addition to their current seats, some of their best targets imo are:

District 30, Biden + 14, based around Middle Village which is basically like "white flight" within the city itself. It's a realtively transit desert, pretty white, and notably less dense than the surrounding areas. Zeldin def won this district.

District 43, Biden + 12, heavily Asian district, usually very low turnout, and def voted for Zeldin in 2022. These are some of the more culturally conservative Asian communities in Bensonhurst.

District 44, Trump + 64, basically represented by a conservaDem rn with ties to the Orthodox Jewish community.

Honestly though, outside of these, any other possibilities require some huge re-alignment. I think the Asian seats out in Queens could be possible down the road if they put in the work to actually appeal to these communities.

True. Canarsie is now African American/Caribbean, although they are still some Italians there.

Yeah, Canarsie is what most NYers point to as *the* "hood".

That's a little surprising. Yes, it's about 80% black and only about 5% white, but the rate of homeownership is a bit higher than the city-wide median, and the crime rate and poverty rate are both a bit lower than average. All at least according to Wikipedia

Yes, a lot of middle class African Americans and Afro-Caribbeans have their own homes, and they live there, it's a middle class place, but it has it's waves of crime sometimes. The old-school Italians that are still there have a legacy to build on, like Original Pizza in Canarsie's Avenue L. They have survived demographic change....

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/18/nyregion/18metjournal.html

[wbrocks67]

Honestly Zeldin's NYC performance seems a lot less impressive when you realize he barely did better than Silwa in 2021

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

They already have the few Staten Island and South Brooklyn seats, their next targets should be Asian areas such as Flushing where Zeldin came in striking distance.

In addition to their current seats, some of their best targets imo are:

District 30, Biden + 14, based around Middle Village which is basically like "white flight" within the city itself. It's a realtively transit desert, pretty white, and notably less dense than the surrounding areas. Zeldin def won this district.

District 43, Biden + 12, heavily Asian district, usually very low turnout, and def voted for Zeldin in 2022. These are some of the more culturally conservative Asian communities in Bensonhurst.

District 44, Trump + 64, basically represented by a conservaDem rn with ties to the Orthodox Jewish community.

Honestly though, outside of these, any other possibilities require some huge re-alignment. I think the Asian seats out in Queens could be possible down the road if they put in the work to actually appeal to these communities.

Yeah Zeldin probably won the Brooklyn Chinese clusters- I'm guessing the bluest parts of the Brooklyn sea of pink (west of the presumably Orthodox Jewish/ex-Soviet/white ethnic tongue of crimson?) correspond to Sunset Park and Bensonhurst? Not nearly familiar enough with Queens to make any comments on the Chinese or South Asian clusters there.

Map link

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1600245507212730369

[Suburbia]

Honestly Zeldin's NYC performance seems a lot less impressive when you realize he barely did better than Silwa in 2021

He did better than Sliwa or Malliotakis or Lhota, but did not do well as Pataki 1994-1998-2002. Pataki got at least 35%-37% of the vote in NYC.

Pataki carried SI and Queens throughout his elections....

[Eraserhead]

Do we know the final statewide result?

[kwabbit]

Honestly Zeldin's NYC performance seems a lot less impressive when you realize he barely did better than Silwa in 2021

He did better than Sliwa or Malliotakis or Lhota, but did not do well as Pataki 1994-1998-2002. Pataki got at least 35%-37% of the vote in NYC.

Pataki carried SI and Queens throughout his elections....

Pataki didn't carry Queens in any of his runs. He got 35% in '94, 36% in '98, and 44% in '02. He might've won it in 2002 if not for Golisano, but Pataki won his elections by doing well everywhere not in NYC, particularly in Westchester and the Upstate urban centers.

[wbrocks67]

Do we know the final statewide result?

There's been virtually nothing additional counted since Election Day on NYT, which seems... unlikely?

[Annatar]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

[Sir Mohamed]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

Obama got NUT margins in most of the Bronx; I think he held Romney to just like 3% of the vote or smtg in NY-13 and NY-15. One possibility this cycle was that minority turnout seemed extremely low across the board, so perhaps some of the R leaning whiter communities had a greater impact.

[wbrocks67]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

I think it was just bad Dem turnout, which then helped inflate the margins for Rs.

[Sir Mohamed]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

Obama got NUT margins in most of the Bronx; I think he held Romney to just like 3% of the vote or smtg in NY-13 and NY-15. One possibility this cycle was that minority turnout seemed extremely low across the board, so perhaps some of the R leaning whiter communities had a greater impact.

Sure, but NYC is also an area where Hochul and Dems severely underperformed Cuomo 2018. Even in 2014, Cuomo won by 14 pts statewide, running up the score in NYC.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

Obama got NUT margins in most of the Bronx; I think he held Romney to just like 3% of the vote or smtg in NY-13 and NY-15. One possibility this cycle was that minority turnout seemed extremely low across the board, so perhaps some of the R leaning whiter communities had a greater impact.

Sure, but NYC is also an area where Hochul and Dems severely underperformed Cuomo 2018. Even in 2014, Cuomo won by 14 pts.

Cuomo had appeal to a lot of ethnic enclaves of NY due to being Italian, but was toxic upstate plus Rs ran Molinaro who was a white boy from upstate.

[wbrocks67]

Did we ever end up getting final results?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

Obama got NUT margins in most of the Bronx; I think he held Romney to just like 3% of the vote or smtg in NY-13 and NY-15. One possibility this cycle was that minority turnout seemed extremely low across the board, so perhaps some of the R leaning whiter communities had a greater impact.

Sure, but NYC is also an area where Hochul and Dems severely underperformed Cuomo 2018. Even in 2014, Cuomo won by 14 pts.

Cuomo had appeal to a lot of ethnic enclaves of NY due to being Italian, but was toxic upstate plus Rs ran Molinaro who was a white boy from upstate.

This is a sort of stereotyped explanation, although it's not completely baseless. The nature of the campaign Zeldin ran--crime crime crime, and extremely aggressively going after Hochul on some genuinely heavy-handed COVID and consumer regulatory stuff as well--had at least as much to do with it. Street crime is the sort of issue in the NYC area that Republicans keep wishing it would be again in the rest of the country. There's a reason it took a while for stop-and-frisk to be widely seen as redounding to Bloomberg's discredit.

[Smash255]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

One thing that is pretty amazing is Westchester was only 5 points more R than Queens (+21 to +26) and only 4.5 points more R than Obama/Romney 2012

[lfromnj]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

One thing that is pretty amazing is Westchester was only 5 points more R than Queens (+21 to +26) and only 4.5 points more R than Obama/Romney 2012

And Tompkins was more D lmao.  Obama+41 to Hochul +44. During the 2022 special for the Reed seat there were the infamous 0 R votes precincts in Ithaca proper. I wonder how Yonkers voted. Its fairly unusual in that its one of the few cities or towns that are the largest in a county yet more R than the county as a whole. Its fairly black and hispanic but unlike the rest of Westchester its whites are closer to Long Island.

[President Johnson]

Did we ever end up getting final results?

I thought they're already in. For governor it's 52.4%-46.7%. Around 326k raw votes difference.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

One thing that is pretty amazing is Westchester was only 5 points more R than Queens (+21 to +26) and only 4.5 points more R than Obama/Romney 2012

And Tompkins was more D lmao.  Obama+41 to Hochul +44. During the 2022 special for the Reed seat there were the infamous 0 R votes precincts in Ithaca proper. I wonder how Yonkers voted. Its fairly unusual in that its one of the few cities or towns that are the largest in a county yet more R than the county as a whole. Its fairly black and hispanic but unlike the rest of Westchester its whites are closer to Long Island.

This is a bit of a weird sidenote that ik has been discussed before, but does it ever concern ya'll just *how* lopsided college campuses like Cornell's are. Literally college precincts are more D than 95% black precincts on the south side of Chicago at this point, despite colleges generally having diversity in every other regard.

Sure, young people tend to lean D and so do college educated people, but there is def external cultural stuff leading some of these campuses to be so heavily lopsided, especially in the northeast. Prolly because these schools are the stereotype of the "liberal elite", but I have to imagine most students don't really care about politics when applying and there are also students who don't really develop a political ideology until they're in college.

Another thing that always confuses me is my own personal experience; I go to a high performing public NYC high school that has a large number of immigrants from South Brooklyn communities and Asians from Queens and South Brooklyn that you actually have quite a notable conservative population within the student body, even if liberals tend to dominate. My school is exactly the type of "feeder" school for these top colleges, and a lot of the top students are students from these conservative leaning immigrant families. Idk but the lopsidedness of college campuses always surprises me.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Another thing that always confuses me is my own personal experience; I go to a high performing public NYC high school that has a large number of immigrants from South Brooklyn communities and Asians from Queens and South Brooklyn that you actually have quite a notable conservative population within the student body, even if liberals tend to dominate. My school is exactly the type of "feeder" school for these top colleges, and a lot of the top students are students from these conservative leaning immigrant families. Idk but the lopsidedness of college campuses always surprises me.

I can't speak for your birth cohort or the public K-12 students of NYC proper, but the shifting politlcal coalitions in the US and in other mature liberal democracies reflect a realignment away from the "liberal" vs "conservative" alignment of yesteryear.  The issues the families of K-12 kids are more conservative on aren't always correlated with which ones are most important to how they vote.

This tweet describes what I've seen with Asians online and in real life, but I'd say it goes beyond socialization into the college+ population. (It's also true for African immigrant communities but I don't think people care as much since people generally don't think of African adult immigrants as a comparatively R group)

https://twitter.com/HamrickPaul/status/1468715815587438594
Also I wouldn't say precinct results on college campuses are totally representative of the general student body given how many college kids register as absentee voters.