NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[pikachu]

Two biggest issues imo were Democratic complacency (anecdotal, but I know a lot of people who didn’t vote because they thought Hochul was going to win) and crime. Not really sure what you do about the latter. I suppose NY Dems can be more like Eric Adams and make it your entire thing, but then you run into the problem where you’ve created a monster that’s impossible to slay. I find it really amusing as a hater, but murders and shootings are down in the city since his election and he’s reaped no political benefit from it.

[KaiserDave]

The margin is not set, there are hundreds of thousands of mail ballots still out there. Remain calm.

[Oryxslayer]

Dems really need need to do an autopsy here how that could have happened. Schumer also underperformed.

https://twitter.com/ZachReports/status/1590797740921229312?s=20&t=sE66V2sKgf...

NY Dems don't want to take the blame coming their way.

[wbrocks67]

Well it also appears there was just complacency among Dems, too. "Crime" may have swung some swing voters or energized the GOP, but it also appears that Dems just didn't turn out. Not as extreme as FL, but still seems like more of a turnout problem than anything.

[free my dawg]

Dems really need need to do an autopsy here how that could have happened. Schumer also underperformed.

https://twitter.com/ZachReports/status/1590797740921229312?s=20&t=sE66V2sKgf...

NY Dems don't want to take the blame coming their way.

I will accept my apologies and accolades.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Two biggest issues imo were Democratic complacency (anecdotal, but I know a lot of people who didn’t vote because they thought Hochul was going to win) and crime. Not really sure what you do about the latter. I suppose NY Dems can be more like Eric Adams and make it your entire thing, but then you run into the problem where you’ve created a monster that’s impossible to slay. I find it really amusing as a hater, but murders and shootings are down in the city since his election and he’s reaped no political benefit from it.

Always a good thing to hear, but what about other types of crime? My hot take is Cuomogate was the biggest factor

[free my dawg]

This is why I will never and would never vote for Hochul. She ultimately is just as much of a part of the machine as Jacobs is - a machine who will fight harder against the progressive left than it will actual Republicans.

This is what I mean by Blue MAGA - the machine and the cult is what matters. They don't care about the frivolous investigations against Hunter Biden, or the repeal bills of the agenda jamming up, or the presidency. They'll gladly sacrifice anything to keep themselves in power - even if it means giving Republicans the drivers' seat to America.

[President Johnson]

Dems really need need to do an autopsy here how that could have happened. Schumer also underperformed.

https://twitter.com/ZachReports/status/1590797740921229312?s=20&t=sE66V2sKgf...

NY Dems don't want to take the blame coming their way.

Disappointing. Wasn't it already controversial to leave Jacobs in office after Cuomo resigned?

They should really get to the bottom of the underperformance by all statewide Democrats. Even Schumer has not done well for his standards.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

To what extent is this residual fallout from Cuomo?

[Progressive Pessimist]

There is a thread in the congressional elections sub-forum where I detailed my observations and predictions for New York this year, having been subjected to an absolute onslaught of ads more than usual and spending a lot of time in Orange, Rockland, Ulster, and Westchester counties recently. So I don't really want to repeat all that here.

What I will say is that I did have kind of a bad feeling about the state but nowhere near as bad as it ended up. What I did nail though was what I thought Hochul's county map would be, and I was 100% right about it! Also note how much it seemed to correlate with the congressional district results.

[warandwar]

To what extent is this residual fallout from Cuomo?

nursing home deaths maaaaybe had some purchase still, but i don't think it was a relevant issue. The fallout is the coalition Cuomo mustered to replace the IDC as his muscle in the leg. They played up tough on crime, anti-immigrant, etc, etc messaging. Blanketed primaries with ads about this. Eventually the chickens come home to roost - many of those players prefered the hard sell/career advancement opportunities of Team Red.

[Sir Mohamed]

Perhaps Dems need to run an entire new slate in 2026 for all statwide offices? I'm more thinking of the Pat Ryans of the world, not the AOCs. Or at least some progressives that aren't Squad-like toxic outside inner NYC.

This should also be Schumer's last term.

[President Johnson]

I happen to agree here... actually for longer thought State Senator Jessica Ramos would be a rising star of New York Democrats. Probably worth keeping an eye on her.

https://twitter.com/jessicaramos/status/1590744097438199814

[pikachu]

Two biggest issues imo were Democratic complacency (anecdotal, but I know a lot of people who didn’t vote because they thought Hochul was going to win) and crime. Not really sure what you do about the latter. I suppose NY Dems can be more like Eric Adams and make it your entire thing, but then you run into the problem where you’ve created a monster that’s impossible to slay. I find it really amusing as a hater, but murders and shootings are down in the city since his election and he’s reaped no political benefit from it.

Always a good thing to hear, but what about other types of crime? My hot take is Cuomogate was the biggest factor

Yeah, other crime is up and mostly quality of life stuff. (Though also not by that much to warrant the media hysteria imo.)

I don’t think Cuomo mattered. My choice for underrated Hochul screw-up that hurt her is the Bills stadium deal. It’s probably the most high-profile thing she did. The optics looked pretty bad and obviously it was never going to have currency with downstate voters.

[Suburbia]

Zeldin would not win the governorship in 2026 either.

He should run for the Suffolk County Executive, since Suffolk is trending R again...in 2023, he can win there.

[Sir Mohamed]

Just checked the AG race; James apparently won with 54% of the vote, barely overperforming the governor's race. This not just an indictment on Hochul, but on NY Dems as a whole. Not even in the R-waves of 2010 or 2014 did they perform so poorly. Cuomo in 2010 clobbered Paladino, who was like Zeldin a far-right-winger.

[wbrocks67]

Just checked the AG race; James apparently won with 54% of the vote, barely overperforming the governor's race. This not just an indictment on Hochul, but on NY Dems as a whole. Not even in the R-waves of 2010 or 2014 did they performs so poorly. Cuomo in 2010 clobbered Paladino, who was like Zeldin a far-right-winger.

Yeah, while Hochul did the worst, this wasn't all on her - Zeldin also had the most high profile candidacy of all the races.

If anything, Schumer's race is the worst because Pinion was a total joke candidate who had no money and still managed to get 43%. That is insane.

[Eraserhead]

So I assume we're still waiting for a decent chunk of votes to be counted here that will likely expand Hochul (and other statewide Democrat's) margins a bit, correct?

A really poor showing either way though! It'd be one thing if Zeldin was a legitimate moderate and this was the result but he was basically another Trump nut who made a half-assed attempt to portray himself as somewhat moderate in the lead-up to the general election and I guess it worked to some extent. He's not quite Mastriano/Lake/etc. but yikes.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I think the correct take on NY is that it's incredibly nuanced. A lot of factors here:

-Cuomogate
-Hochul not taking the race as seriously until closer to the end
-Possible Hochul missteps along the way (stadium deal, etc.)
-Hochul not being a real incumbent, appointees can be tricky sometimes
-Zeldin getting a massive wave of national money

What Hochul, et al should've done was define Zeldin from the start. As others stated, he wasn't some moderate. He was a literal election denier, and yet that seems to have gotten lost in all this. They should've nailed him from the beginning so he had no route to dig out.

But again, it's not just Hochul. It's Schumer, James, Hochul, everyone. It's very clear that the biggest factor here was simply that this is a midterm, and NY is a safe blue state, and Democrats didn't feel the need to come out because they figured Hochul/all Dems would win and stuff like abortion rights, etc would not be in danger because it's New York. I think that's the easiest and clearest reason. You mix that with a few energized Republicans and there you have it.

Pretty safe to say though then in the end that Republicans have nearly no chance in New York in the modern era statewide, barring something crazy. This year was a perfect storm of what they needed and they still fell short by 6% in the gov race.

[Sir Mohamed]

Just a broader question: NY doesn't have term limits. How likely do you think it is Hochul runs at least once more in 2026? I think unless she's really unpopular, she does end up running again and then might pass the torch to Delgado in 2030.

[Duke of York]

Just a broader question: NY doesn't have term limits. How likely do you think it is Hochul runs at least once more in 2026? I think unless she's really unpopular, she does end up running again and then might pass the torch to Delgado in 2030.

I think thats very possible.

[Suburbia]

Just a broader question: NY doesn't have term limits. How likely do you think it is Hochul runs at least once more in 2026? I think unless she's really unpopular, she does end up running again and then might pass the torch to Delgado in 2030.

I think she runs again in 2026, maybe 2030, but I think a Republican can win in '26 and '30 under the right circumstances.

NY Dems need to run more middle class people for legislative seats. A rising star would be Paddy O'Sullivan, Irish American, a current FDNY firefighter who ran as a Democrat challenging Assemblywoman Emily Gallagher in Williamsburg, Brooklyn.

https://twitter.com/PaddyforNY/status/1535319492288466948

[Suburbia]

Yeah, I think the correct take on NY is that it's incredibly nuanced. A lot of factors here:

-Cuomogate
-Hochul not taking the race as seriously until closer to the end
-Possible Hochul missteps along the way (stadium deal, etc.)
-Hochul not being a real incumbent, appointees can be tricky sometimes
-Zeldin getting a massive wave of national money

What Hochul, et al should've done was define Zeldin from the start. As others stated, he wasn't some moderate. He was a literal election denier, and yet that seems to have gotten lost in all this. They should've nailed him from the beginning so he had no route to dig out.

But again, it's not just Hochul. It's Schumer, James, Hochul, everyone. It's very clear that the biggest factor here was simply that this is a midterm, and NY is a safe blue state, and Democrats didn't feel the need to come out because they figured Hochul/all Dems would win and stuff like abortion rights, etc would not be in danger because it's New York. I think that's the easiest and clearest reason. You mix that with a few energized Republicans and there you have it.

Pretty safe to say though then in the end that Republicans have nearly no chance in New York in the modern era statewide, barring something crazy. This year was a perfect storm of what they needed and they still fell short by 6% in the gov race.

NYGOP could win, if crime is not fixed by now and 2026, Democrats are going to be swept. They got reelected, they need to find a way to work with police departments or else someone like a D'Esposito or a Frank Siller could win in 2026.

[Continential]

Could you see the NYC GOP doing well in the 2025 city council elections, bronz?

[Suburbia]

Could you see the NYC GOP doing well in the 2025 city council elections, bronz?

They currently have 5 seats in the city council, that isn't like the watershed 7 seats they had under Mayor Giuliani but they could add more, especially in the Canarsie area or Elmhurst with Latino voters...

I don't see another Republican mayor soon......however.....they would have to win Democrats and Independents...

I am surprised the NYGOP base did not move to FL or PA yet....they're still in the neighborhoods