NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[President Johnson]

Hochul will win easily. Why is there so much nonsense being said and discussed in here?

The narrative this might be competitive just seems fun to some. Gonna be a disappointment coming Tuesday.

[Duke of York]

Hochul will win easily. Why is there so much nonsense being said and discussed in here?

I hope so. I want to see Zeldin trounced. What do you think the margin will be?

[2016]

Democrats brace for a potential LOSS in New York State:
https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1588628343339057156
Again, Polling Industry may have gotten this Race wrong as well
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/04/politics/eric-adams-new-york-crime-midterms/index.html

This doesn't sound like Hochul is up double digits as the late Polls are claiming she is.

[Orwell]

Why would Adams be the fall guy lol, Dems are in disarray.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I hope so. I want to see Zeldin trounced. What do you think the margin will be?

Hochul by 12-18%.

[Duke of York]

Democrats brace for a potential LOSS in New York State:
https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1588628343339057156
Again, Polling Industry may have gotten this Race wrong as well
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/04/politics/eric-adams-new-york-crime-midterms/index.html

This doesn't sound like Hochul is up double digits as the late Polls are claiming she is.

Sounds like an opinion piece to me. Every poll but Republican partisans have her at 50 or more . There is simply no evidence for this at and nothing in the article indicates it either. No insiders have said this either.

[Senator Incitatus]

Sounds like an opinion piece to me. Every poll but Republican partisans have her at 50 or more . There is simply no evidence for this at all.

We don't actually know where Democratic internals have her because they haven't released any, but this story citing Democratic operatives on background suggests they're not rosy. (Unless this ostensible news story or its sources actually have ulterior motives, which would be harrowing a revelation for Our Democracy.)

[Duke of York]

Sounds like an opinion piece to me. Every poll but Republican partisans have her at 50 or more . There is simply no evidence for this at all.

We don't actually know where Democratic internals have her because they haven't released any, but this story citing Democratic operatives on background suggests they're not rosy. (Unless this ostensible news story or its sources actually have ulterior motives, which would be harrowing a revelation for Our Democracy.

His claims are not credible. It doesn’t even say anonymous sources.

[Orwell]

Sounds like an opinion piece to me. Every poll but Republican partisans have her at 50 or more . There is simply no evidence for this at all.

We don't actually know where Democratic internals have her because they haven't released any, but this story citing Democratic operatives on background suggests they're not rosy. (Unless this ostensible news story or its sources actually have ulterior motives, which would be harrowing a revelation for Our Democracy.

His claims are not credible. It doesn’t even say anonymous sources.

Every claim benefitting the Democrat party is positive while every claim against the Democrat party (widely unpopular) is podunk? Check your bias.

[Figueira]

Remember that CNN is right-wing now.

[jamestroll]

on Social Media both the Zeldin and Hochul campaigns have "seen" my requests and DEMANDS for birth times. Neither have responded ha.

I will say if I knew nothing of New York's political leanings I would pick Zeldin to win this .

But considering that Zeldin's transits are basically neutral and New York's strong political leaning to the Democrats plus the  lack of birth times for either.. I'd guess I'd pick Hochul to win. I'd need Zeldin to have excellent transits to pick him to win with confidence. Neutral does not cut it and this is a case in which I TRULY NEED A BIRTH TIME.

I also have noticed some candidates have great transits on election night but lose narrowly if their states partisan lean is very harsh.

South Dakota 2018 is a great example of this.

Hochul does not have encouraging transits though to say the least.

transit mercury square uranus- neutral

transit mercury square venus-negative

transit venus opposite mars- negative- possible VERY negative depending on birth time.

transit mars square pluto- negative to very negative but fleeting

transit mercury square chiron- neutral/negative

transit mercury opposite mars- negative.


If this state was more competitive normally, I would pick the Republican to win.

[jamestroll]

Anyone know the inauguration date for New York Governor?

I read it is the 1st of January? But strange to have it on a holiday? But I old news stories seem to confirm it.

I'll look at the astrology for that day.. as this is interesting.

[warandwar]

James Dolan's PAC is spending around 600k to keep the MSG tax break support Hochul. "Endorsed by James Dolan" seems like an effective attack on Hochul, lol.

I have no idea who that is and I doubt many other people do.

owner of the Knicks. Devil incarnate to many

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Anyone know the inauguration date for New York Governor?

I read it is the 1st of January? But strange to have it on a holiday? But I old news stories seem to confirm it.

I'll look at the astrology for that day.. as this is interesting.

Yes, every Governor of New York is inaugurated on New Year's Day (January 1st).

[Calthrina950]

I hope so. I want to see Zeldin trounced. What do you think the margin will be?

Hochul by 12-18%.

If Hochul actually did win by that much, it would show that New York was never competitive for Republicans and that it is unwinnable for them with the present coalitions. Apparently, Hochul went on MSNBC and claimed that her internals were showing a "much different" race from that depicted in Trafalgar and some of the other polls that have had her race close.

[jamestroll]

I hope so. I want to see Zeldin trounced. What do you think the margin will be?

Hochul by 12-18%.

If Hochul actually did win by that much, it would show that New York was never competitive for Republicans and that it is unwinnable for them with the present coalitions. Apparently, Hochul went on MSNBC and claimed that her internals were showing a "much different" race from that depicted in Trafalgar and some of the other polls that have had her race close.

For January 1st, 2023.. the transits are better for Hochul than Zeldin.

So this makes it very interesting!!!

[Fuzzy Bear]

New York hasn't had a real Republican Party for a while.  The NY Republican Party is very much a group of local parties.  Statewide, you are either (A) a Democrat or (B) a "not a Democrat".  The Republicans aren't the enemy of Democrats in quite the same manner that they are in more partisan states.  This viewpoint makes it easier for a Democrat to vote for a Republican or for a Republican to vote for a Democrat. 

Then, too, there are the cross-endorsements.  Lee Zeldin is the candidate of the Republican and Conservative Parties.  A candidate can cast a vote for a Democrat or Republican candidate on a minor party line.  It's a feature that lowers resistance to ticket-splitting. 

If people want to know why crime is an issue, one needs to realize that a large swath of New Yorkers commute to NYC.  They take a commuter train to Manhattan or Brooklyn, and then they usually get on a subway train to take them to their workplace.  It is on the subways and in the train stations (now loaded with homeless addicts) that commuters are the most at risk for crime.  This was the norm in the 1970s and even into the 1980s, but the Giuliani years and the Bloomberg years put an end to this.  Subways and mass transit were markedly safer.  Now, crime is back, thanks to the elimination of cash bail and the "Defund the Police!" mentality that is abating somewhat, but not until much damage was done. 

People don't just "feel" less safe; they ARE less safe.  And they know it.  I remember my 1st job out of college was in Downtown Brooklyn.  On more than one occasion we took up collections for coworkers who were mugged at the Chemical Bank in the neighborhood while cashing their paychecks.  It's total Gaslighting by Hochul to suggest that the average New Yorker can't recognize when they are in danger.  Politicians don't have to tell them, but Hochul has (for purely political reasons) let these people know that she doesn't view their safety as her problem.

The increase of Democratic support in the suburbs was fueled, in part, by the greater perception of safety commuting New Yorkers felt during the Giuliani and Bloomberg years.  Now they could vote on the basis of other issues, and there were certainly corrupt local Republicans in Nassau and Suffolk Counties.  But it's not 2013 anymore.  And the damage done by ending cash bail is unfathomable.  These are the chickens coming home to roost for Hochul.  She may or may not be re-elected, and I'm not going to bet against her.  But she's not in a great position.  If she wins by more than 4 points I will be shocked.

[wbrocks67]

If Hochul does end up winning by 12-15%, then it will also mean that all of the "polls" showing her sinking were incredibly shoddy, since there a ton of polls of this race in September that showed her up by just that amount. Most of the polls that showed her doing bad were either partisan, or had incredibly odd composite party-reg make-ups that look nothing like New York.

[kwabbit]

If Hochul does end up winning by 12-15%, then it will also mean that all of the "polls" showing her sinking were incredibly shoddy, since there a ton of polls of this race in September that showed her up by just that amount. Most of the polls that showed her doing bad were either partisan, or had incredibly odd composite party-reg make-ups that look nothing like New York.

There was plenty of legitimate movement to Zeldin that wasn't just a function of non-response in polling. Emerson has polled the race thrice and had strong, robust Biden recalled vote (maybe even too high) in all three and had it going from Hochul +15 to +7 to +9. A battery of high quality pollsters polled the race and had swings from September to October.

There was definitely some lopsided enthusiasm gap that was fueling Zeldin's rise in the polls that has leveled out as we approach election day, but to suggest that there wasn't persuasion going on is untrue. There can be actual movement in gubernatorial races, it's not always non-response.

[PSOL]

Alright, I can’t forgive Hawkins for running this low energy campaign even with him being unfairly barred from the ballot and running as a write-in.

[Calthrina950]

I'm surprised this hasn't been talked about yet:

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1589382468112904192

This was certainly a startling moment, and an unacceptable one. I don't think supporters of any candidate should be subject to verbal abuse or physical assault. If you are going to condemn Republicans and Trumpists (rightfully) for harassing and assaulting Democrats and Biden supporters, then you should condemn what was done to this woman.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm surprised this hasn't been talked about yet:

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1589382468112904192

This was certainly a startling moment, and an unacceptable one. I don't think supporters of any candidate should be subject to verbal abuse or physical assault. If you are going to condemn Republicans and Trumpists (rightfully) for harassing and assaulting Democrats and Biden supporters, then you should condemn what was done to this woman.

NY def has some of the worst of the Democrats. A lot of angry people here. I think a lot of it has to do with not only that NY is so politically lopsided but has some very extreme cultural divides that just makes the polarization worse. The political divide of South Brooklyn I'd argue is the most extreme in the nation going from Biden 95% precincts and two precincts over Trump 80% precincts. You have a lot of people here on the left who really really dislike certain factions of the city which is just messed up.

[Duke of York]

What is everyone's final prediction for the margin here.

[Sir Mohamed]

What is everyone's final prediction for the margin here.

I don't think it will be close to single digits. Hochul +14 or +15 seems a bare minimum. So she wins a full term 57.5-42.5%.

[Duke of York]

What is everyone's final prediction for the margin here.

I don't think it will be close to single digits. Hochul +14 or +15 seems a bare minimum. So she wins a full term 57.5-42.5%.

That seems reasonable to me.