NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Suburbia]

Among prominent New York Democrats, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is no longer alone in having once been a Blue Dog:

Kathy Hochul's past conservative positions raise eyebrows: report

Hochul and Gillibrand represented conservative areas, they had to be Blue Dogs....

[Suburbia]

How do you see a Hochul vs Leticia James primary shaping up?

Kathy Hochul wins the primary. She then wins the general elections with around 51-52% of the vote.

Awful take. She will easily win the general. No Democrat would lose the general--not even Cuomo.

It's not 1994 anymore, no Republican has a chance in a deep blue state with modern polarization. This would be like a Democrat winning the Utah governor's race.

~snip~[/img]

reddit.com/r/punchablefaces

Massachusetts is different. They cream themselves to the idea of electing a moderate Republican to complement their Democratic legislature, and have done so the bulk of the last 25 years. The Democratic legislature typically blocks them from doing a lot of damage, although as Baker's tenure has proved, not all of it.

Are you of the view that Democratic states should not elect Republicans under any circumstances, even those who are moderate?

Yes. Unless it's someone like Jacob K. Javits.

You need balance. NJ/NJ/IL/MA are too taxed. You need a Pataki, a Christie, a Edgar or a Romney or Baker to balance with the taxes. A lot of white Democrats don't like taxes either, it's time for Black and Latino Democrats to come on board with that as well....Just like WV/MO.....

[Suburbia]

It's Long Island or bust for the NYGOP.

If they can't make serious inroads in LI in 2022 in a Biden midterm with defund the police, Cuomo stains on the NYDP, the anti-vax/anti-mask presence there, the NYGOP should probably close up shop there...

[Suburbia]

Hochul confirmed to CNN today that her L.G. will hail from NYC proper, as opposed to just Long Island or Westchester. Granted, that doesn't really narrow down the list of names that's been out there in any way, but it's technically something.

Well, yes. Hochul is from Upstate, she has to pick a downstate (NYC) to balance the ticket.

Zeldin should pick a Upstate Latino/a conservative to balance his downstateness

[Suburbia]

Hochul confirmed to CNN today that her L.G. will hail from NYC proper, as opposed to just Long Island or Westchester. Granted, that doesn't really narrow down the list of names that's been out there in any way, but it's technically something.

Well, yes. Hochul is from Upstate, she has to pick a downstate (NYC) to balance the ticket.

Zeldin should pick a Upstate Latino/a conservative to balance his downstateness

Ever been to Upstate New York? Not too many conservative Latinas there. Who'd you have in mind?

No, I have not gone to Upstate New York in a while, but he could pick a white Latina conservative small businessowner, probably a Cuban or Venezuelan or Colombian who can attract Latino voters, a bloc Zeldin needs.

[Suburbia]

I have to wonder, with Cuomo having resigned, will Zeldin stay in the Governor's race, or will drop out and run for reelection instead.

I think he was clearly running because he thought Cuomo wasn't going to resign and wasn't going to be removed from office. Now that he's gone, maybe he'll calculate that he'll have a better chance at winning reelection, even against Garbarino or Suozzi than statewide against Hochul.

Wasn't his district about to be eliminated or redrawn to a more blue leaning one? At this point, I think he stays in the race and loses to Hochul by 20-25 points.

Zeldin loses by 15-20 points, he carries Suffolk, but loses Nassau by 5-10 points....

The only Democrat who could lose to a Republican would be Curran or AOC

[Suburbia]

I think Jumaane Williams only runs for Governor if Hochul bombs in the next six months, or if AOC starts threatening to endorse a primary challenger, or threatens to run herself.

Otherwise, he'll sit out the primary and focus on a primary challenge against Eric Adams in 2025.

This....

Likely/Safe D....

NYGOP should look at other row offices, like Comptroller.

Tom DiNapoli is not well known because no one knows what a controller is.

Harry Wilson should run...

[Suburbia]

AG Tish James is considering running....

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/16/letitia-james-discussing-run-for-new-york-governor-after-cuomos-fall.html

[Suburbia]

Lee Zeldin has leukemia, and it is in remission

He should drop out and resign and focus on his health.

He's not going to win anyway. The only NY GOPer who could give Hochul a race is Harry Wilson......

https://nypost.com/2021/09/18/lee-zeldin-nys-likely-gop-gov-nominee-confirms-cancer-battle/

NYGOP should focus on row offices..

[Suburbia]

Hochul is seen as a Blue Dog Democrat, James and DiNapoli are seen as more progressive, DiNapoli, especially for a Long Islander. Before he was appointed as controller in 2007 he was a long time Assemblyman from Thomaston, LI in the North Shore section of Nassau County...

Joy Reid calls her Fast and Furious Kathy because she voted in Congress to censure Eric Holder and she accepted money from the NRA....

She is from upstate NY, they hunt up there, what do you expect?

I think James, Biaggi, DiNapoli and Bellone will choose to run by now and November, running in NY is expensive...

And don't count out Cuomo, Spitzer and Weiner, all three are egotistical to think of running again, especially Cuomo. The NY Legislature should have barred him from running again for state office....

[Suburbia]

The Washington Post asks Tom Suozzi about a Gubernatorial bid, and he refuses to answer the question.

You’re said to be considering running for governor. What are you weighing and when do plan to make a decision?


Suozzi: Right now, the most important thing I can do for New Yorkers is to get SALT relief for them and their families. Everything else right now is secondary.

Suozzi previously mounted a Gubernatorial campaign in 2006, back when he was Nassau County Executive, losing to Eliot Spitzer in the Democratic Primary.

Does Suozzi have a political base? Other than outerborough and suburban white Democrats?

[Suburbia]

So basically Hochul, de Blasio, James, Williams and potentially Suozzi and DiNapoli are the D candidates that will be on the ballot??

James could take away a lot of votes from Hochul.....

[Suburbia]

https://twitter.com/katieglueck/status/1445714877809508355?s=21

So there probably aren't the voters to make de Blasio the Nom - all mayors end up unpopular both outside and inside their constituency and de Blasio is no exception. However him getting in alongside one of the downstate African Americans probably means the field is divided enough that Hochul can win just on incumbency and sweeping upstate.

Yeah, De Blasio would probably drain New York City voters from Jumaane Williams in a multiway race.

In a scenario where De Blasio somehow forces Williams out of the race, he'd get flattened by Hochul. He has no constituency at all, and this is one of the few scenarios where Hochul carries all five boroughs.

De Blasio's better off running for a downballot office like Lieutenant Governor or trying to run for a House seat in 2022 (his old City Council seat is currently in Nydia Velazquez's district, and there's a possibility it ends up in either Jerrod Nadler or Nicole Malliotakis's district after redistricting).

In fact, if he carpetbagged over to Malliotakis's seat regardless of redistricting, given Democrats are almost certainly going to gerrymander that seat into a very Democratic district, I think De Blasio would beat Malliotakis if he won the primary.

Do you really think even in a new district, de Blasio would beat Malliotakis? In Staten Island? I see Malliotakis getting a South Shore Seat and Debi Rose, the soon to be outgoing North Shore Councilwoman getting a North Shore congressional district, furthering the Staten Island racial divide.

[Suburbia]

de Blasio will not be governor, period.

Does Zeldin lose his home county Suffolk to Hochul next year, does he drag the entire NYS GOP ticket?

NYS GOP Ticket:
Governor/Lt. Governor: Lee Zeldin/Rob Astorino
Attorney General: Dennis Vacco
Controller: Harry Wilson
U.S. Senate: Antoine Tucker 

[Suburbia]

Williams and de Blasio can't win.

Hochul, James or Suozzi can win.

I see Kathleen Rice and Sean Patrick Maloney running for AG in 2022 or 2026

[Suburbia]

If Suozzi loses the primary, he can run for Nassau County Executive, his old job from 2002-2009 and he could beat Blakeman in 2025

[Suburbia]

This is my prediction for the county map if the race ends up being Hochul vs. Zeldin

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=dfas

Dutchess may vote GOP but I agree with everything else on this map. We'll see if we get some geographical polarization that's the reverse of 2018. Molinaro won every Hudson county except Albany and Ulster, even winning Columbia, while Cuomo won Staten Island both LI counties.

If it goes the other way, Hochul probably keeps all of the Biden Hudson counties.

I think Hochul wins Nassau, by 2-3 points. I wonder if that means that the Long Island Senate Democrats get swept out....

[Suburbia]

Ex-NYC mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa endorses Andrew Giuliani for governor, attacks presumptive nominee Lee Zeldin

https://nypost.com/2021/12/26/curtis-sliwa-backs-andrew-giuliani-for-new-york-governor/

[Suburbia]

Zeldin will not win, but he will probably get 40% of the vote.

He should pick a minority for his running mate.

He should pick Fernando Mateo as his running mate. But Mateo is from Downstate, like Zeldin

[Suburbia]

Suozzi's moderate politics plays well in some parts of the state, but he won't win.

He should run for Nassau County Executive in 2025.

[Suburbia]

Suozzi's moderate politics plays well in some parts of the state, but he won't win.

He should run for Nassau County Executive in 2025.

Do you think he will finish ahead of Jumaane? I don't think so, if he even makes it to the primary.

Yes, because he siphons moderate voters on Long Island, etc. de Blasio probably is last place.

However, with the district attorneys dropping charges on Andrew Cuomo and with him having money still in his account, Cuomo may want to put his name on the ballot by now and April

[Suburbia]

Harry Wilson, a perennial NYGOP favorite and the 2010 Comptroller nominee, is considering running for New York governor....he will make a decision very soon.....

He would make the race more competitive than Zeldin, Astorino and Giuliani would.....

https://nypost.com/2022/01/09/millionaire-goper-harry-wilson-considering-run-for-ny-gov/

[Suburbia]

Pataki won't run again, he is too old.

His political career is over

[Suburbia]

Zeldin has leukemia, he is not healthy, Wilson can make the race more competitive.

If Wilson runs, and wins the nomination, he should pick a minority LG.

[Suburbia]

de Blasio should work in the private sector.

Suozzi should run for Congress again or wait to be Senator in 2024 or 2028 or run for Nassau Executive in 2025 and he could beat Blakeman.