NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Sir Mohamed]

Hochul confirmed to CNN today that her L.G. will hail from NYC proper, as opposed to just Long Island or Westchester. Granted, that doesn't really narrow down the list of names that's been out there in any way, but it's technically something.

Well, yes. Hochul is from Upstate, she has to pick a downstate (NYC) to balance the ticket.

Zeldin should pick a Upstate Latino/a conservative to balance his downstateness

Ever been to Upstate New York? Not too many conservative Latinas there. Who'd you have in mind?

No, I have not gone to Upstate New York in a while, but he could pick a white Latina conservative small businessowner, probably a Cuban or Venezuelan or Colombian who can attract Latino voters, a bloc Zeldin needs.

If Nicole Malliotakis was from upstate, she'd tick a lot of boxes for him. I doubt she wants to switch from an eminently winnable House race to an almost-impossibly uphill race for Lieutenant Governor though.

You're all overestimating the role of the lt. gov. Hardly anyone not a political nerd even knows his or her lt. gov., let alone decide their vote based on it. If Hochul is the Dem nominee, which appears likely now, she will easily win over a GOPer. If not her, anyone who is the Dem nominee will do so, no matter who Zeldin's running mate is.

[Sir Mohamed]

FWIW, NY GOP starting to take out social media ads depicting a Hochul vs. de Blasio primary.

Huh.

Do you figure they have inside knowledge on de Blasio’s decision to run (last I heard he was still undecided), or are they just trying to bait him into the race?

Either way, I imagine their pre-resignation hopes were for a messy Cuomo-vs-everyone primary, that bloodied him enough to squeak a victory. Would be bizarre if they’re trying to hold onto that playbook in the post-Cuomo race - which is pretty scandal free on the dem side thus far. .

they probably realize their 10% chance at winning left with cuomo, and the only way they can resuscitate those odds are if De Blasio is the nominee/a bitterly divided primary

De Blasio has a non existent chance to win a statewide primary, whether it's 4 gov or another statewide office. Zero. Doubtful he'd even do well in NYC itsself.

[Sir Mohamed]

My suspicion is that James always planned on running 4 gov in 2026 after Cuomo would likely retire. State AGs have often been frontrunners for the top job in an open race, see Cuomo himself and Spitzer before. Then after the harassment scandal surfaced, it was widely expected Cuomo would never resign or be impeached and consequently open up a chance for her to run against the scandal plagued incumbent (remember they were considered allies in 2018). That would have been the most formidable primary challenge for him. Now that the dude is gone, James had just 2 options: Run anyway to get the job she long wanted, or essentially end her ambitions for said position. If Hochul is retained for a full term, it's reasonable to assume she'll run again in 2026 and retire after a 2nd full term. So we're tlaking about 2030 here, and that's too late for James as she will be 72 (like Hochul). She'll be old news then and younger candidates aim to become gov, perhaps from the House bench or Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin. Challenging Hochul in 2026 (if she runs again) is harder than 2022. So for James it's either now or never.

That said, I didn't expect James to run after Cuomo's resignation was announced. Needless to say the state is Safe D no matter what, question is whether this primary battle is useful for the party (for sure I would prefer her running 4 reelection as AG and/or replace Garland, who has been a disappointing AG). For Hochul and James, their careers are pretty much at stake because the losing candidate will be finished. Williams can still run for the House or another statewide post later on. DeBlasio is done anyways.

[Sir Mohamed]

Jesus… imagine accepting an endorsement from these crooks. I’ll be supporting Hochul if this is the alternative.
https://twitter.com/zackfinknews/status/1454149821254746113?s=21

Although Cuomo is a reprehensible human being and it was absolutely necessary to remove him from office, it does seem to me that James is an opportunist. Running for the Governorship, so soon after those scandals? And against an incumbent who is not controversial and has been governing as a Generic Democrat? I don't understand it. James would have been well-advised to run for reelection as Attorney General instead.

Yup, completely agree.

In retrospect that makes me wonder whether James indeed welcomed Cuomo's harassment and nursing home scandals for her own political gain. For sure Cuomo deserved to be investigated for said missconduct and I'd never say these scandals were fabricated, BUT at least James saw them as an opportunity for her political career. That's why I tend to believe she never expected Cuomo to resign in the first place (neither did I or most posters in this forum) and then run a strong primary challenge against a scandal plagued incumbent. Now that the corrupt dude is gone, she wants to move forward anyways and thinks Hochul is vulnerable since she's not an elected gov and kind of underperformed against Williams in the lt. gov. primary in 2018.

[Sir Mohamed]

Any Dem for AG other than Blue Trump Cuomo, who's teasing a run.

[Sir Mohamed]

Dem primary is Likely Hochul at this point; Williams and James will cost each other the most votes. DeBlasio entering would even make it close to Safe Hochul.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1465337006603608070

LOL, clown car incoming.

I dunno why that many candidates think they have much of a chance. Other than Hochul, only James is at least a longshot. Perhaps we're seeing some dropouts before the primary is actually around the corner.

[Sir Mohamed]

Has a sitting gov in recent memory attracted that many non-perennial candidates? Tbh, I can't think of one. Most likely has nothing to do with Hochul personally or her governing style, I just think these contenders long desired to be gov anyway and see this race as a "now or never/in 10 years" as Hochul is an unelected incumbent who was a lower profile politician before taking the reigns of power. Williams is possibly the only candidate who actually runs for pure ideological reasons and would have done so against any incumbent who isn't to the left of AOC.

That said, I think there's a substantial chance not all candidates even make it to June, when the primary is held. I'm not fully convinced Suozzi will even gain traction statewide, same applies to De Blasio if/when he enters. Williams will most likely hang on even if the race becomes (or stays) a de facto Hochul vs. James contest with the former has clear favorite. Remember NY is a large state and you need to raise enough money to seriously contest a race statewide.

[Sir Mohamed]

Wow, shocking development.

I actually expected at least one dropout before the primary, but not from James who at least seemed in a good runner-up position. She most likely realized this bid was too much of a longshot and decided to go back to the relative safe AG job. Or she actually prepared a gubernatorial campaign before Cuomo finally resigned and assumed he'd either just serve out his term or Hochul would be a placeholder not even running for gov.

That said, I don't think there was any "backroom deal". Having a solid lead, there was no incentive for Hochul to make such a deal.

Hochul and James are the clear favorites for retaining their current positions as we speak. If I were in NY, I'd most likely vote for both now.

[Sir Mohamed]

Tbh, I doubt Suozzi will actually stand in the primary. He'll drop out before as his campaign fails to gain traction. Hochul is already occupying the moderate lane, even if she has become more liberal as gov than she was decade ago in the House. It's a Hochul-Williams race. Should De Blasio be delusional enough to enter the race, he'll just take a few votes from Williams.

As for the GOP, I don't see how Zeldin isn't winning the nomination.

[Sir Mohamed]

de Blasio not running:

https://twitter.com/BilldeBlasio/status/1483433356293464065?s=20

Safe Hochul -> Safe Hochul

[Sir Mohamed]

Ladies and Gentlemen, several sources claiming the corrupt dude is talking about a potential comeback after "being vindicated". Holy cr*p, just go away you creep.

https://twitter.com/CBS6Albany/status/1490906154972635136

[Sir Mohamed]

Apparently he's looking at primarying James. I hope he does and gets absolutely embarrassed.

Yup, though sources claim that he was 16 or 18 million $ cash on the bank. Not that I think he'll come close to winning, but at least giving James a run for her money.

[Sir Mohamed]

Assuming that he enters, I am now endorsing Harry Wilson for Governor, because he has the best chances of winning *knocks on wood*, though those chances are still well below 50%

Nah, the GE is Safe D.

[Sir Mohamed]

Wow. It seems like Cuomo may be gearing up to run for something this year. My guess is he runs for Attorney General.

https://twitter.com/maggienyt/status/1497009103494803456?s=21

Ugh, the Wikipedia article about the AG race lists him as "declined" and cites a NY Post article. Could be a nothingburger here, or he's aiming a late entry at the gov race to challenge Hochul. Would be kind of hilarious to see him finish 3rd after her and Williams (I could see Suozzi dropping out then).

[Sir Mohamed]

Could Cuomo even announce this late? Is there any actual basis that the corrupt dude will run? For sure I have a hard time seeing him to get a third of the primary vote.

Any chance this Memerson is fake/bought by Cuomo himself to test reactions?

[Sir Mohamed]

Cuomo might really be going for governor.

Ugh, just go away, you creep.

I don't think the dude is stupid enough to actually jump in, especially this late.

[Sir Mohamed]

Major scandal brewing. Lieutenant Governor Brian Benjamin is under federal investigation for campaign finance fraud related to his 2021 bid for New York City Comptroller.

Federal prosecutors and the FBI are investigating whether New York Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin (D) played a role in directing fraudulent funds to his failed 2021 campaign for New York City comptroller.

His campaign advisers and the state Senate have been subpoenaed in the matter, according to The New York Times.

Prosecutors from the Southern District of New York have issued grand jury subpoenas seeking documents from Benjamin's campaign committee, paid staffers and consulting firms, three people familiar with the matter told the Times.


Prosecutors more recently began seeking records from the state Senate, where Benjamin previously served and represented Harlem prior to being selected for the lieutenant governor position by Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) after she became governor.

Benjamin has not been accused of wrongdoing, but Harlem real estate investor Gerald Migdol, who last year was charged with wire fraud, aggravated identity theft and other crimes, was accused of concocting a plan to misrepresent or conceal multiple illegal contributions to Benjamin's campaign, the newspaper reported.

This has the potential to be very bad news for Hochul. It probably won't cost her the election (there's still time to select a new Lieutenant Gubernatorial running mate for 2022), but it's an easy line of attack for Suozzi and for Zeldin in the general election.

Not sure this is much of a game changer for the gov primary itsself, though I wonder whether the dude wasn't properly vetted? Perhaps it's a flaw in the system as lt. gov. doesn't need legislative confirmation. During such a process, issues like these may have surfaced earlier.

Anyways, I don't understand what Hochul thought he brings to the ticket. I feel like he just checked the "downstate" and "minority" box. A dude who can't even win a local primary perhaps isn't a very strong choice.

Since the optics are bad for Benjamin, he most likely has to withdraw, even if there's nothing to it (which we might not find out until after the June primary).

[Sir Mohamed]

At this point, if Cuomo runs (which I don't think is particularly likely at this point), he'll do it as a third-party run.

You mean on purpose to hand Zeldin the Governor's Mansion on a silver platter with 40-44% of the vote? Or at least give Hochul a run for her money?

[Sir Mohamed]

Heard Cuomo is announcing tomorrow from someone who works for Hochul. No further details.

April fools joke, right?

BUT if true, I predict Suozzi will immediately drop out and endorse Cuomo, perhaps running for lt. gov. with him.

[Sir Mohamed]

How does a NYGOP win in 2022, yes even in a Biden midterm?

NYGOP has to win 30%+ of the NYC vote, the suburbs and Upstate is not enough. Pataki made inroads in NYC as governor, that's how he won reelection in 2002.

They don't.

[Sir Mohamed]

Does Adams secretly back Cuomo returning to office? Possible he and Hochul will continue to long-time feud between NY govs and NYC mayors?

https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1511856168464961546

[Sir Mohamed]

Does Adams secretly back Cuomo returning to office? Possible he and Hochul will continue to long-time feud between NY govs and NYC mayors?

https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1511856168464961546

The deadline to file in the Democratic primary has passed. I doubt Cuomo runs as an independent.

Good to know.

I don't think he runs as Indy either, because there's nothing he would gain from it. Even if Hochul then loses the GE due to ticket splitting, Cuomo would be even more hated among Dems. That said, I don't even think a 3rd party bid would gain much steam anyway. Sure, he has a ton of cash on the bank, but money alone doesn't elect anyone.

[Sir Mohamed]

New York politicians are so corrupt, it is sad. But it is still a state to do business and have fun.

Zeldin still can't win. For some reason, NYGOP are cursed post-Pataki. I don't know why.

For the same reason Dems now fail to win governorships in states they once did, like MO or IA. Polarization and many of these races get nationalized to a huge extent, making it almost impossible for the minor party to pull it off. Just a few states keep being immune to that, at least to a certain extent (see MA, VT or KY). But even there it's very likely just a matter of time or already takes extremely bad opponents.

That said, I think Benjamin will be out in a matter of days and absolutely dropped from the ticket. The optics of this is just too bad, even if he gets cleared in the aftermath.

[Sir Mohamed]

Well Brian Benjamin has been indicted

#ShouldveBeenJumanee

The lockdown lunatic? Nah.