NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Suburbia]

You have a Republican running on the Democrat line, a lockdown lunatic, and someone who doesn't follow her own mask mandate.

We live in a society.

It's called being a centrist Democrat on Long Island. Visit the Island in the summer and you'll see why.

[Suburbia]

Safe D, but Wilson will make it interesting.

Hochul or Suozzi should not be cocky.

[Suburbia]

Safe Hochul but Zeldin will make inroads. She should not be comfortable and run a Martha Coakley.

[Suburbia]

Cuomo is appealing to Black and Latino churches because he knows they are more establishment than white liberals.

I don't know if he has appeal.

[Suburbia]

Despite New York's comically horrific politics in both parties, from the sleaze of the NYDP to the cops can do no wrong remember what they did on 9/11 NYGOP, NY is still a place to do business despite the high taxes and rent. If every Wall Street firm moved South, which they are doing, but if Broad Street and Wall Street became empty, then NY as a whole would be in trouble.

It be perfect for a Tom Golisano-type third party to come in and save NY if Cuomo runs.

Cuomo would probably pull a Connecticut for Lieberman type third party and try to take votes from Hochul.

[Suburbia]

Ruben Diaz Sr. would probably endorse Cuomo....

He's campaigning for him

https://vimeo.com/689351336?ref=tw-share

[Suburbia]

This race can be one of the closest Gov race in NY History, I expect Hochul to win but it won't be a landslide, I would be shocked if Hochul does lose like we were all shocked I'm an R wave Quinn lost but in an R plus 5 Environment IL, NY or Cali can flip Newsom had such high Approvals during Recall now they are 47%

If the recall were held today Newsom would not have 51 to avoid defeat

Neither Hochul or Newsom is losing.

Newsom is not losing, but Hochul could lose the general to Cuomo. They are more registered Dems than Republicans and Pataki won in 1994, 1998 and 2002 because of crossover voters.

The NYGOP brand is tainted with Trump, corruption, etc

[Suburbia]

How does a NYGOP win in 2022, yes even in a Biden midterm?

NYGOP has to win 30%+ of the NYC vote, the suburbs and Upstate is not enough. Pataki made inroads in NYC as governor, that's how he won reelection in 2002.

[Suburbia]

New York politicians are so corrupt, it is sad. But it is still a state to do business and have fun.

Zeldin still can't win. For some reason, NYGOP are cursed post-Pataki. I don't know why.

[Suburbia]

If Zeldin does win, he would have a frosty relationship with Black New Yorkers. He's a Long Island politician with ties to Fox News and cops. If there is a police brutality case in NY, Gov. Zeldin would probably either defend it, or say nothing and earn the wrath of the Black community.

So Zeldin isn't winning. 2002 was 20 years ago and Pataki was riding off post-9/11 gains for the GOP. The post-Mario NYDP was in shambles because Cuomo did not build up a successor......

Democrats will keep the seat, but it will be an interesting race.

The scumbag Giuliani son ain't winning either.

[Suburbia]

Was this man not vetted?

Benjamin was picked because he's the kind of downstate pol who knows exactly how to motivate all of the right people. It wasn't in anyone's interest to ask too many questions.

This. He's a Black Downstate New Yorker, regional balance, ideological balance (he's to Hochul's left, supported defund police, etc.)

Hochul will pick a Latina/Black person. No white males. No white women. She needs to pick someone who can be LG and also who can be president should anything happen to Hochul or Senate Maj Ldr. Cousins.

[Suburbia]

Just a friendly reminder that Cuomo can still run as an Independent and could win because of name ID.

It's NY's choice, Cuomo has name ID, and he could take votes from Hochul.

Republicans aren't winning NY anytime soon and the only way they do is if Cuomo has a October surprise by a another woman...............NY Senate Republicans need to win 12-14 seats to win back control, and doing that through Long Island and Hudson Valley is not enough.....

[Suburbia]

Cuomo still has time to run for AG as an Independent

[Suburbia]

Zeldin would not win the governorship in 2026 either.

He should run for the Suffolk County Executive, since Suffolk is trending R again...in 2023, he can win there.

[Suburbia]

Just a broader question: NY doesn't have term limits. How likely do you think it is Hochul runs at least once more in 2026? I think unless she's really unpopular, she does end up running again and then might pass the torch to Delgado in 2030.

I think she runs again in 2026, maybe 2030, but I think a Republican can win in '26 and '30 under the right circumstances.

NY Dems need to run more middle class people for legislative seats. A rising star would be Paddy O'Sullivan, Irish American, a current FDNY firefighter who ran as a Democrat challenging Assemblywoman Emily Gallagher in Williamsburg, Brooklyn.

https://twitter.com/PaddyforNY/status/1535319492288466948

[Suburbia]

Yeah, I think the correct take on NY is that it's incredibly nuanced. A lot of factors here:

-Cuomogate
-Hochul not taking the race as seriously until closer to the end
-Possible Hochul missteps along the way (stadium deal, etc.)
-Hochul not being a real incumbent, appointees can be tricky sometimes
-Zeldin getting a massive wave of national money

What Hochul, et al should've done was define Zeldin from the start. As others stated, he wasn't some moderate. He was a literal election denier, and yet that seems to have gotten lost in all this. They should've nailed him from the beginning so he had no route to dig out.

But again, it's not just Hochul. It's Schumer, James, Hochul, everyone. It's very clear that the biggest factor here was simply that this is a midterm, and NY is a safe blue state, and Democrats didn't feel the need to come out because they figured Hochul/all Dems would win and stuff like abortion rights, etc would not be in danger because it's New York. I think that's the easiest and clearest reason. You mix that with a few energized Republicans and there you have it.

Pretty safe to say though then in the end that Republicans have nearly no chance in New York in the modern era statewide, barring something crazy. This year was a perfect storm of what they needed and they still fell short by 6% in the gov race.

NYGOP could win, if crime is not fixed by now and 2026, Democrats are going to be swept. They got reelected, they need to find a way to work with police departments or else someone like a D'Esposito or a Frank Siller could win in 2026.

[Suburbia]

Could you see the NYC GOP doing well in the 2025 city council elections, bronz?

They currently have 5 seats in the city council, that isn't like the watershed 7 seats they had under Mayor Giuliani but they could add more, especially in the Canarsie area or Elmhurst with Latino voters...

I don't see another Republican mayor soon......however.....they would have to win Democrats and Independents...

I am surprised the NYGOP base did not move to FL or PA yet....they're still in the neighborhoods

[Suburbia]

Could you see the NYC GOP doing well in the 2025 city council elections, bronz?

They currently have 5 seats in the city council, that isn't like the watershed 7 seats they had under Mayor Giuliani but they could add more, especially in the Canarsie area or Elmhurst with Latino voters...

I don't see another Republican mayor soon......however.....they would have to win Democrats and Independents...

I am surprised the NYGOP base did not move to FL or PA yet....they're still in the neighborhoods

I agree they could add more, but def not from the Canarsie area..



They already have the few Staten Island and South Brooklyn seats, their next targets should be Asian areas such as Flushing where Zeldin came in striking distance.

In addition to their current seats, some of their best targets imo are:

District 30, Biden + 14, based around Middle Village which is basically like "white flight" within the city itself. It's a realtively transit desert, pretty white, and notably less dense than the surrounding areas. Zeldin def won this district.

District 43, Biden + 12, heavily Asian district, usually very low turnout, and def voted for Zeldin in 2022. These are some of the more culturally conservative Asian communities in Bensonhurst.

District 44, Trump + 64, basically represented by a conservaDem rn with ties to the Orthodox Jewish community.

Honestly though, outside of these, any other possibilities require some huge re-alignment. I think the Asian seats out in Queens could be possible down the road if they put in the work to actually appeal to these communities.

True. Canarsie is now African American/Caribbean, although they are still some Italians there.

[Suburbia]

Could you see the NYC GOP doing well in the 2025 city council elections, bronz?

They currently have 5 seats in the city council, that isn't like the watershed 7 seats they had under Mayor Giuliani but they could add more, especially in the Canarsie area or Elmhurst with Latino voters...

I don't see another Republican mayor soon......however.....they would have to win Democrats and Independents...

I am surprised the NYGOP base did not move to FL or PA yet....they're still in the neighborhoods

I agree they could add more, but def not from the Canarsie area..



They already have the few Staten Island and South Brooklyn seats, their next targets should be Asian areas such as Flushing where Zeldin came in striking distance.

In addition to their current seats, some of their best targets imo are:

District 30, Biden + 14, based around Middle Village which is basically like "white flight" within the city itself. It's a realtively transit desert, pretty white, and notably less dense than the surrounding areas. Zeldin def won this district.

District 43, Biden + 12, heavily Asian district, usually very low turnout, and def voted for Zeldin in 2022. These are some of the more culturally conservative Asian communities in Bensonhurst.

District 44, Trump + 64, basically represented by a conservaDem rn with ties to the Orthodox Jewish community.

Honestly though, outside of these, any other possibilities require some huge re-alignment. I think the Asian seats out in Queens could be possible down the road if they put in the work to actually appeal to these communities.

True. Canarsie is now African American/Caribbean, although they are still some Italians there.

Yeah, Canarsie is what most NYers point to as *the* "hood".

That's a little surprising. Yes, it's about 80% black and only about 5% white, but the rate of homeownership is a bit higher than the city-wide median, and the crime rate and poverty rate are both a bit lower than average. All at least according to Wikipedia

Yes, a lot of middle class African Americans and Afro-Caribbeans have their own homes, and they live there, it's a middle class place, but it has it's waves of crime sometimes. The old-school Italians that are still there have a legacy to build on, like Original Pizza in Canarsie's Avenue L. They have survived demographic change....

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/18/nyregion/18metjournal.html

[Suburbia]

Honestly Zeldin's NYC performance seems a lot less impressive when you realize he barely did better than Silwa in 2021

He did better than Sliwa or Malliotakis or Lhota, but did not do well as Pataki 1994-1998-2002. Pataki got at least 35%-37% of the vote in NYC.

Pataki carried SI and Queens throughout his elections....

[Suburbia]

We should make a fresh NY megathread later in the month.

Dems won, but they got a scare. This should make them learn and find a way to get along with police, cutting crime, etc.

If not, 2026 will be a bad year for NY Dems. A respectable Republican could beat Hochul or Delgado especially in a Biden six-year itch.

[Suburbia]

Cuomo is more politically savvy than Hochul, better messenger.

Hochul could be primaried or lose reelection in 2026

If a Republican wins in 2026, what can they accomplish with Dems anyway?

The Left should not barb Cuomo or Hochul, especially Cuomo, he may run for Senate in 2024...

[Suburbia]

She should move on from this and should also scrap the housing units in suburbs

Focus on jobs, etc.

I can see her being primaried in 2026