Who is the Most Likely Next UK Prime Minister?

[Lumine]

Boris Johnson. It's fairly possible MP's lock him out and as the frontrunner he has a big target on his back for friendly fire that will hurt, but if he reaches the membership vote it's hard to see him losing to any of the alternatives barring a meltdown or something unexpected.

On the other hand, it's often the darkhorse candidate - the anti "insert frontrunner here" - who usually (but not always) wears the crown. Somehow I keep picturing that Gove will end up as the anti-Boris, if only because Hunt is doing himself absolutely no favors with his constant shifting (being likened to May will hurt badly) and Javid (his questionable performance as Home Sec aside) makes John Major look like a god of charisma.

And well, there's always Raab, who I suppose could outflank Boris. And yet I just can't take him seriously after displaying such ignorance as Brexit Secretary (not that the Tory membership will care).

The rest seem hopeless at the moment. Leadsom and Hancock need other candidates to fail badly if they are to pick up support, Stewart will get to raise his profile but won't get anywhere near the Premiership, Malthouse, McVey and Cleverly seem evident cases of "Why are you running?" and none of the other rumoured candidates (Mordaunt, Brady, Harper, Norman) seem to have a significant base of support (though I could be wrong about Brady, and possibly Mordaunt).

(Feel free to quote this if I'm hilariously wrong and the UK ends up with Prime Minister Steve Baker or something like that)