Who is the Most Likely Next UK Prime Minister?
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  Who is the Most Likely Next UK Prime Minister?
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Question: Your Own Biases and Wants Aside, Who is Most Likely to be Elected Tory Leader and Thus Become PM of the UK (of the Currently Declared Candidates)?
#1
Boris Johnson
 
#2
Esther McVey
 
#3
Dominic Raab
 
#4
Jeremy Hunt
 
#5
Matt Hancock
 
#6
Andrea Leadsom
 
#7
Rory Stewart
 
#8
Other
 
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Total Voters: 54

Author Topic: Who is the Most Likely Next UK Prime Minister?  (Read 1426 times)
Free Bird
TheHawk
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« on: May 26, 2019, 01:23:46 AM »

Probably Boris
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2019, 01:46:05 AM »

Jeremy Hunt, for no other reason than failing upward being the art that he has truly mastered.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2019, 05:48:01 AM »

The "favourite" at this point is certainly Johnson, but past experience shows that counts for relatively little.

My personal hunch is it will be Gove, FWIW.

(he certainly has more chance than some in the poll - I would seriously put Stewart at about 200/1)
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« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2019, 06:23:39 AM »

I'd say that there's about 30% chance Boris takes it, which technically makeshim the "most likely" as I can also see Raab, Gove, Mordaunt, Hancock, McVey etc also winning, but there is no clear "anti-Boris" candidate yet.

Zero percent chance of someone like Stewart taking it.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2019, 07:11:21 AM »

I'd say that there's about 30% chance Boris takes it, which technically makeshim the "most likely" as I can also see Raab, Gove, Mordaunt, Hancock, McVey etc also winning, but there is no clear "anti-Boris" candidate yet.

Zero percent chance of someone like Stewart taking it.

Absolutely no way. Thankfully.
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« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2019, 01:48:15 PM »

The "favourite" at this point is certainly Johnson, but past experience shows that counts for relatively little.

My personal hunch is it will be Gove Raab, FWIW.
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Lumine
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« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2019, 04:16:12 PM »

Boris Johnson. It's fairly possible MP's lock him out and as the frontrunner he has a big target on his back for friendly fire that will hurt, but if he reaches the membership vote it's hard to see him losing to any of the alternatives barring a meltdown or something unexpected.

On the other hand, it's often the darkhorse candidate - the anti "insert frontrunner here" - who usually (but not always) wears the crown. Somehow I keep picturing that Gove will end up as the anti-Boris, if only because Hunt is doing himself absolutely no favors with his constant shifting (being likened to May will hurt badly) and Javid (his questionable performance as Home Sec aside) makes John Major look like a god of charisma.

And well, there's always Raab, who I suppose could outflank Boris. And yet I just can't take him seriously after displaying such ignorance as Brexit Secretary (not that the Tory membership will care).

The rest seem hopeless at the moment. Leadsom and Hancock need other candidates to fail badly if they are to pick up support, Stewart will get to raise his profile but won't get anywhere near the Premiership, Malthouse, McVey and Cleverly seem evident cases of "Why are you running?" and none of the other rumoured candidates (Mordaunt, Brady, Harper, Norman) seem to have a significant base of support (though I could be wrong about Brady, and possibly Mordaunt).

(Feel free to quote this if I'm hilariously wrong and the UK ends up with Prime Minister Steve Baker or something like that)
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« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2019, 07:15:12 PM »

It should be Farage, but probably Johnson.  Farage needs to finish the job he started and those usually who don't want to lead are some of the best leaders.
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« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2019, 10:44:31 PM »

It should be Farage, but probably Johnson.  Farage needs to finish the job he started and those usually who don't want to lead are some of the best leaders.

Farage would be a disaster that would ruin the UK's reputation abroad and destroy the nations economy with a no deal Brexit.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2019, 12:53:45 AM »

Most likely is Boris, but I'll predict it goes to either Raab or Mourdaunt
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« Reply #10 on: May 29, 2019, 01:21:34 AM »

It should be Farage, but probably Johnson.  Farage needs to finish the job he started and those usually who don't want to lead are some of the best leaders.

Farage would be a disaster that would ruin the UK's reputation abroad and destroy the nations economy with a no deal Brexit.

A "no deal" Brexit is probably going to happen anyway.
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Blair
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« Reply #11 on: May 29, 2019, 03:16:16 AM »

The job doesn't pay well enough for Farage.

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Lechasseur
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« Reply #12 on: May 29, 2019, 07:06:09 AM »

I don't think Johnson will be the next PM, even if he's the favorite right now.

I suspect it will either be Raab or Hunt (I think it will be Raab as this time I think it will be the Brexiteers that will win and I think he'll be their standard bearer; while Hunt I think will become the candidate of the MPs who are less enthusiastic about a hard Brexit).
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #13 on: May 29, 2019, 07:53:27 AM »

It should be Farage, but probably Johnson.  Farage needs to finish the job he started and those usually who don't want to lead are some of the best leaders.

Farage would be a disaster that would ruin the UK's reputation abroad and destroy the nations economy with a no deal Brexit.

A "no deal" Brexit is probably going to happen anyway.

We were told this before March also.

It becomes likelier the longer this impasse carries on, but there are still formidable obstacles to it.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2019, 10:58:18 AM »

Well... er... it can only possibly be one of the various cretins running in the Conservative leadership poll, can't it? And, honestly, that contorted swamp of a contest is impossible to rationally predict given the completely mad rules under which it will be conducted. It isn't the most likely outcome (probably?) but you certainly can't rule out some grey blur fluking the whole thing, for instance.
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« Reply #15 on: May 29, 2019, 03:57:13 PM »

Imagine if in 2009 a time traveler from a decade later told you that there was a President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Boris Johnson in their time.
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« Reply #16 on: May 29, 2019, 04:13:48 PM »

Imagine if in 2009 a time traveler from a decade later told you that there was a President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Boris Johnson in their time.

In 2009 this wouldn't have been very surprising at all; Boris had massive and unique appeal at that time being one of the most popular politicians in the country, with the Tory membership and swing voters of all demographics alike giving him credit.
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« Reply #17 on: May 30, 2019, 11:56:08 AM »

Dominic Raab

Raab will be the next Tory leader for the next 10 years---snap election or not
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