Conservative leadership election

[Oryxslayer]

snip

I'm just going to answer one point, because I think everything else flows from this point and this point alone: when will the Next GE be and what circumstances do you think said GE will be triggered by?

I think said GE will be triggered when Boris tries for no deal in October, after 'exhausting' or at least pretending to exhaust all other options. The remainer Tories bolt, an extension is granted for a GE period, and its a multitude of remainer policies vs Boris. In this regard, Farage would have already succeeded, the Conservatives have made a bed of No Deal and they would have to sleep in it if they win the election. They have also taken the plunge and carved of their arm that backed remain, for what would ideally This hypothetical GE would also be called purely over Brexit, with the cliff literally right there, all other party policies that do not tie back to Brexit would have to take a back seat. But I will say that I perhaps may have underestimated Corbyn's ability to change...or maybe you are overestimating it. I dunno, Labour infighting is harder to follow then Conservative infighting here in the states.

Now if you think the GE will occur under different circumstances, then different fundamentals may surface. But the situation reflected in the polls right now is untenable and in so much flux that something has to emerge from all this rampant destructive energy.

I also will say that your point on Boris himself is a little off. You see the man as waffling, I see him as consistently trying to follow his voters popular will. This of course leads to 'cracking down and backing down' as seen in the present White House administration. You end up caught between appeasing one side of the base and then angering another, and end up doing nothing but piss off those who would never support you. But when the base is so unified around a single policy, No Deal...

[brucejoel99]

Indeed. Unless one is inclined (or paid to) disbelieve everything the EU says and imagine the UK/Johnson can get what they want automatically, it's quite clear there's going to be no change in the Withdrawal Agreement.

Well, if you're inclined to believe what the EU says, then maybe you'd believe what I'd said considering it's the EU's diplomats themselves who've apparently been privately saying that, while the EU remains resistant to reopening the WA, they could still add to it in addition to potentially rewriting the political declaration on a future relationship & wrapping the whole thing up in a new umbrella deal.

This isn't a pro-Boris delusion (I mean, f**k Boris); it's just what's been reported as fact.

[cp]

Indeed. Unless one is inclined (or paid to) disbelieve everything the EU says and imagine the UK/Johnson can get what they want automatically, it's quite clear there's going to be no change in the Withdrawal Agreement.

Well, if you're inclined to believe what the EU says, then maybe you'd believe what I'd said considering it's the EU's diplomats themselves who've apparently been privately saying that, while the EU remains resistant to reopening the WA, they could still add to it in addition to potentially rewriting the political declaration on a future relationship & wrapping the whole thing up in a new umbrella deal.

This isn't a pro-Boris delusion (I mean, f**k Boris); it's just what's been reported as fact.

Reported as fact, but not reported very accurately. EU diplomats have said they'd add to the WA, rewrite the PD, and sign off on a comprehensive new deal for months. Every time they do the British press, especially but not exclusively the pro-Brexit press, reports it as if they've finally located the chink in the EU's armour and that they're about to capitulate to the UK's demands. Inevitably, they fail to report the statement that always follows: that any adjustments to the current deal is dependent on accepting the major components of the current deal, i.e. the backstop/citizens rights/£39 billion payment.

[brucejoel99]

Indeed. Unless one is inclined (or paid to) disbelieve everything the EU says and imagine the UK/Johnson can get what they want automatically, it's quite clear there's going to be no change in the Withdrawal Agreement.

Well, if you're inclined to believe what the EU says, then maybe you'd believe what I'd said considering it's the EU's diplomats themselves who've apparently been privately saying that, while the EU remains resistant to reopening the WA, they could still add to it in addition to potentially rewriting the political declaration on a future relationship & wrapping the whole thing up in a new umbrella deal.

This isn't a pro-Boris delusion (I mean, f**k Boris); it's just what's been reported as fact.

Reported as fact, but not reported very accurately. EU diplomats have said they'd add to the WA, rewrite the PD, and sign off on a comprehensive new deal for months. Every time they do the British press, especially but not exclusively the pro-Brexit press, reports it as if they've finally located the chink in the EU's armour and that they're about to capitulate to the UK's demands. Inevitably, they fail to report the statement that always follows: that any adjustments to the current deal is dependent on accepting the major components of the current deal, i.e. the backstop/citizens rights/£39 billion payment.

Well, is that not implicit in saying that the WA (as it currently stands; i.e. the backstop/citizens' rights/divorce bill) won't be re-opened per se, but that it can be added onto (presumably) with smaller concessions to the UK?

[cp]

snip

I think said GE will be triggered when Boris tries for no deal in October, after 'exhausting' or at least pretending to exhaust all other options. The remainer Tories bolt, an extension is granted for a GE period, and its a multitude of remainer policies vs Boris. In this regard, Farage would have already succeeded, the Conservatives have made a bed of No Deal and they would have to sleep in it if they win the election. They have also taken the plunge and carved of their arm that backed remain, for what would ideally This hypothetical GE would also be called purely over Brexit, with the cliff literally right there, all other party policies that do not tie back to Brexit would have to take a back seat. But I will say that I perhaps may have underestimated Corbyn's ability to change...or maybe you are overestimating it. I dunno, Labour infighting is harder to follow then Conservative infighting here in the states.

Now if you think the GE will occur under different circumstances, then different fundamentals may surface. But the situation reflected in the polls right now is untenable and in so much flux that something has to emerge from all this rampant destructive energy.

I also will say that your point on Boris himself is a little off. You see the man as waffling, I see him as consistently trying to follow his voters popular will. This of course leads to 'cracking down and backing down' as seen in the present White House administration. You end up caught between appeasing one side of the base and then angering another, and end up doing nothing but piss off those who would never support you. But when the base is so unified around a single policy, No Deal...

I don't think I ever said Johnson was waffling. I see him as clueless, or at least hapless, and no longer the supposedly charismatic 'man of the people' figure his supporters believe him to me. He might have been that in 2012, but his association with Brexit has toxified his persona. He risks doing the same thing by pursuing anything other than a no-deal exit on October 31st.

On that point, I think your hypothetical election scenario is quite plausible, at least in the events that would lead up to it. However, I don't think it would play out as you depict. If Johnson went full bore for a no-deal exit he would be stopped by Parliament one way or another. That confrontation would pry loose a significant chunk of the Tory's moderate support - enough that even a pact with the Brexit Party would not be enough to prevent heavy losses for the Tories across the South, West, and in Scotland.

Also, I think the chances of Johnson getting credit for trying but failing to go for no-deal before October 31st are quite slim. Leavers will be apoplectic that their precious Brexit was delayed *again*, and Johnson's reputation as a self-seeker will be way too difficult to ignore when they try to figure out who to blame. Meanwhile, Farage will have no incentive to let up on him in such a situation. He (Farage) could quite easily convince himself he will ride a wave of Leaver anger into Parliament in such a situation; he managed something similar in the EU elections, after all, so why not go for the big prize?

Everything about Brexit up to now has revealed how implosive and cannablistic its advocates become as soon as they have a chance to actually implement it. I'm struggling to see how this round will be any different - save that it could mean Corbyn becomes PM and finally puts the whole thing to bed.

[cp]

Indeed. Unless one is inclined (or paid to) disbelieve everything the EU says and imagine the UK/Johnson can get what they want automatically, it's quite clear there's going to be no change in the Withdrawal Agreement.

Well, if you're inclined to believe what the EU says, then maybe you'd believe what I'd said considering it's the EU's diplomats themselves who've apparently been privately saying that, while the EU remains resistant to reopening the WA, they could still add to it in addition to potentially rewriting the political declaration on a future relationship & wrapping the whole thing up in a new umbrella deal.

This isn't a pro-Boris delusion (I mean, f**k Boris); it's just what's been reported as fact.

Reported as fact, but not reported very accurately. EU diplomats have said they'd add to the WA, rewrite the PD, and sign off on a comprehensive new deal for months. Every time they do the British press, especially but not exclusively the pro-Brexit press, reports it as if they've finally located the chink in the EU's armour and that they're about to capitulate to the UK's demands. Inevitably, they fail to report the statement that always follows: that any adjustments to the current deal is dependent on accepting the major components of the current deal, i.e. the backstop/citizens rights/£39 billion payment.

Well, is that not implicit in saying that the WA (as it currently stands; i.e. the backstop/citizens' rights/divorce bill) won't be re-opened per se, but that it can be added onto (presumably) with smaller concessions to the UK?

Yes, you would think that, and you'd be correct! Yet, every time that sort of story is published the reaction always frames it as 'EU WILL RENEGOTIATE BACKSTOP AFTER ALL' rather than as an acknowledgement by the EU that they will say whatever the UK wants to get the current deal, backstop and all, across the line.

The crux of the matter is that the people who want changes to the WA agreement are asking for something the EU will never concede. They're in denial about this and so they latch on to anything any EU official says that they can twist into a rhetorical opening for their preferred course of action.

[Oryxslayer]

snip

I think said GE will be triggered when Boris tries for no deal in October, after 'exhausting' or at least pretending to exhaust all other options. The remainer Tories bolt, an extension is granted for a GE period, and its a multitude of remainer policies vs Boris. In this regard, Farage would have already succeeded, the Conservatives have made a bed of No Deal and they would have to sleep in it if they win the election. They have also taken the plunge and carved of their arm that backed remain, for what would ideally This hypothetical GE would also be called purely over Brexit, with the cliff literally right there, all other party policies that do not tie back to Brexit would have to take a back seat. But I will say that I perhaps may have underestimated Corbyn's ability to change...or maybe you are overestimating it. I dunno, Labour infighting is harder to follow then Conservative infighting here in the states.

Now if you think the GE will occur under different circumstances, then different fundamentals may surface. But the situation reflected in the polls right now is untenable and in so much flux that something has to emerge from all this rampant destructive energy.

I also will say that your point on Boris himself is a little off. You see the man as waffling, I see him as consistently trying to follow his voters popular will. This of course leads to 'cracking down and backing down' as seen in the present White House administration. You end up caught between appeasing one side of the base and then angering another, and end up doing nothing but piss off those who would never support you. But when the base is so unified around a single policy, No Deal...

I don't think I ever said Johnson was waffling. I see him as clueless, or at least hapless, and no longer the supposedly charismatic 'man of the people' figure his supporters believe him to me. He might have been that in 2012, but his association with Brexit has toxified his persona. He risks doing the same thing by pursuing anything other than a no-deal exit on October 31st.

On that point, I think your hypothetical election scenario is quite plausible, at least in the events that would lead up to it. However, I don't think it would play out as you depict. If Johnson went full bore for a no-deal exit he would be stopped by Parliament one way or another. That confrontation would pry loose a significant chunk of the Tory's moderate support - enough that even a pact with the Brexit Party would not be enough to prevent heavy losses for the Tories across the South, West, and in Scotland.

Also, I think the chances of Johnson getting credit for trying but failing to go for no-deal before October 31st are quite slim. Leavers will be apoplectic that their precious Brexit was delayed *again*, and Johnson's reputation as a self-seeker will be way too difficult to ignore when they try to figure out who to blame. Meanwhile, Farage will have no incentive to let up on him in such a situation. He (Farage) could quite easily convince himself he will ride a wave of Leaver anger into Parliament in such a situation; he managed something similar in the EU elections, after all, so why not go for the big prize?

Everything about Brexit up to now has revealed how implosive and cannablistic its advocates become as soon as they have a chance to actually implement it. I'm struggling to see how this round will be any different - save that it could mean Corbyn becomes PM and finally puts the whole thing to bed.

*Shrugs. We will see what happens in 5 weeks or more. As long as we all recognize that the polls/projections right now are useless, and the shear scope of the destructive energy means that any small thing can produce massive effects on both party policy and overall results. Under FPTP this destruction cannot be maintained forever, eventually there has to be some re-consolidation towards 2 of 4, but who knows when that will happen or who will be the 2.

[cp]

snip

I think said GE will be triggered when Boris tries for no deal in October, after 'exhausting' or at least pretending to exhaust all other options. The remainer Tories bolt, an extension is granted for a GE period, and its a multitude of remainer policies vs Boris. In this regard, Farage would have already succeeded, the Conservatives have made a bed of No Deal and they would have to sleep in it if they win the election. They have also taken the plunge and carved of their arm that backed remain, for what would ideally This hypothetical GE would also be called purely over Brexit, with the cliff literally right there, all other party policies that do not tie back to Brexit would have to take a back seat. But I will say that I perhaps may have underestimated Corbyn's ability to change...or maybe you are overestimating it. I dunno, Labour infighting is harder to follow then Conservative infighting here in the states.

Now if you think the GE will occur under different circumstances, then different fundamentals may surface. But the situation reflected in the polls right now is untenable and in so much flux that something has to emerge from all this rampant destructive energy.

I also will say that your point on Boris himself is a little off. You see the man as waffling, I see him as consistently trying to follow his voters popular will. This of course leads to 'cracking down and backing down' as seen in the present White House administration. You end up caught between appeasing one side of the base and then angering another, and end up doing nothing but piss off those who would never support you. But when the base is so unified around a single policy, No Deal...

I don't think I ever said Johnson was waffling. I see him as clueless, or at least hapless, and no longer the supposedly charismatic 'man of the people' figure his supporters believe him to me. He might have been that in 2012, but his association with Brexit has toxified his persona. He risks doing the same thing by pursuing anything other than a no-deal exit on October 31st.

On that point, I think your hypothetical election scenario is quite plausible, at least in the events that would lead up to it. However, I don't think it would play out as you depict. If Johnson went full bore for a no-deal exit he would be stopped by Parliament one way or another. That confrontation would pry loose a significant chunk of the Tory's moderate support - enough that even a pact with the Brexit Party would not be enough to prevent heavy losses for the Tories across the South, West, and in Scotland.

Also, I think the chances of Johnson getting credit for trying but failing to go for no-deal before October 31st are quite slim. Leavers will be apoplectic that their precious Brexit was delayed *again*, and Johnson's reputation as a self-seeker will be way too difficult to ignore when they try to figure out who to blame. Meanwhile, Farage will have no incentive to let up on him in such a situation. He (Farage) could quite easily convince himself he will ride a wave of Leaver anger into Parliament in such a situation; he managed something similar in the EU elections, after all, so why not go for the big prize?

Everything about Brexit up to now has revealed how implosive and cannablistic its advocates become as soon as they have a chance to actually implement it. I'm struggling to see how this round will be any different - save that it could mean Corbyn becomes PM and finally puts the whole thing to bed.

*Shrugs. We will see what happens in 5 weeks or more. As long as we all recognize that the polls/projections right now are useless, and the shear scope of the destructive energy means that any small thing can produce massive effects on both party policy and overall results. Under FPTP this destruction cannot be maintained forever, eventually there has to be some re-consolidation towards 2 of 4, but who knows when that will happen or who will be the 2.

On that we are in perfect agreement.

[beesley]

My prediction: Boris-led Tories shoot to the top of the polls. Election almost immediately. New withdraw agreement passes. Boris remains popular. No idea where this stuff about the Canadian Progressive Conservatives is coming from, it's not going to happen.

And that strikes me very much as what YOU want to happen.

I would rather No Deal Brexit happen.

What is the logic behind preferring No Deal to a Withdrawal Agreement that was both popular in Parliament and in the country at large?

[Famous Mortimer]

My prediction: Boris-led Tories shoot to the top of the polls. Election almost immediately. New withdraw agreement passes. Boris remains popular. No idea where this stuff about the Canadian Progressive Conservatives is coming from, it's not going to happen.

And that strikes me very much as what YOU want to happen.

I would rather No Deal Brexit happen.

What is the logic behind preferring No Deal to a Withdrawal Agreement that was both popular in Parliament and in the country at large?

1) it isn't popular in parliament or in the country.

2) If you're going to exit the EU, exit the EU. Withdrawal is Brexit in name only.

3) Get the issue over with. If you do fake Brexit, no matter what happens, Remainers and Brexiteers can claim that the economy failed/didn't fail because their option won out. If you do a real Brexit, there is no question. If the economy tanks, it unambiguously means Brexit was wrong and Tories should be punished. If nothing happens (and it probably will) then it unambiguously means that the Remainers are hysterical children who should never be trusted with power.

[Oryxslayer]

My prediction: Boris-led Tories shoot to the top of the polls. Election almost immediately. New withdraw agreement passes. Boris remains popular. No idea where this stuff about the Canadian Progressive Conservatives is coming from, it's not going to happen.

And that strikes me very much as what YOU want to happen.

I would rather No Deal Brexit happen.

What is the logic behind preferring No Deal to a Withdrawal Agreement that was both popular in Parliament and in the country at large?

1) it isn't popular in parliament or in the country.

2) If you're going to exit the EU, exit the EU. Withdrawal is Brexit in name only.

3) Get the issue over with. If you do fake Brexit, no matter what happens, Remainers and Brexiteers can claim that the economy failed/didn't fail because their option won out. If you do a real Brexit, there is no question. If the economy tanks, it unambiguously means Brexit was wrong and Tories should be punished. If nothing happens (and it probably will) then it unambiguously means that the Remainers are hysterical children who should never be trusted with power.

Number 1's importance isn't even comparable to the other two. The Overton Window has shifted so much these past three years (Thanks to Farage and Tory incompetence) that recently a poll found close to 40% of the country supported No Deal. That's not just a overwhelming majority of Leave voters, it's a majority so large that if a politician claims to represent Brexit these days it's required to support No Deal in some form.

[cp]

My prediction: Boris-led Tories shoot to the top of the polls. Election almost immediately. New withdraw agreement passes. Boris remains popular. No idea where this stuff about the Canadian Progressive Conservatives is coming from, it's not going to happen.

And that strikes me very much as what YOU want to happen.

I would rather No Deal Brexit happen.

What is the logic behind preferring No Deal to a Withdrawal Agreement that was both popular in Parliament and in the country at large?

1) it isn't popular in parliament or in the country.

2) If you're going to exit the EU, exit the EU. Withdrawal is Brexit in name only.

3) Get the issue over with. If you do fake Brexit, no matter what happens, Remainers and Brexiteers can claim that the economy failed/didn't fail because their option won out. If you do a real Brexit, there is no question. If the economy tanks, it unambiguously means Brexit was wrong and Tories should be punished. If nothing happens (and it probably will) then it unambiguously means that the Remainers are hysterical children who should never be trusted with power.

Number 1's importance isn't even comparable to the other two. The Overton Window has shifted so much these past three years (Thanks to Farage and Tory incompetence) that recently a poll found close to 40% of the country supported No Deal. That's not just a overwhelming majority of Leave voters, it's a majority so large that if a politician claims to represent Brexit these days it's required to support No Deal in some form.

Also, a no-deal Brexit wouldn't come close to getting the issue 'over with'. As soon as the UK approached the EU for talks on a new arrangement (FTA, Canada +++, whatever), the EU will make a precondition of talks that the UK accept the WA in full - backstop, payments, citizens rights. A no-deal scenario would be far more politically untenable and (overconfident assertions to the contrary notwithstanding) economically painful for the UK than the EU, so it is virtually certain the UK will end up having to accept the EU's offer, if only to staunch the self-inflicted bleeding of no-deal.

[beesley]

My prediction: Boris-led Tories shoot to the top of the polls. Election almost immediately. New withdraw agreement passes. Boris remains popular. No idea where this stuff about the Canadian Progressive Conservatives is coming from, it's not going to happen.

And that strikes me very much as what YOU want to happen.

I would rather No Deal Brexit happen.

What is the logic behind preferring No Deal to a Withdrawal Agreement that was both popular in Parliament and in the country at large?

1) it isn't popular in parliament or in the country.

2) If you're going to exit the EU, exit the EU. Withdrawal is Brexit in name only.

3) Get the issue over with. If you do fake Brexit, no matter what happens, Remainers and Brexiteers can claim that the economy failed/didn't fail because their option won out. If you do a real Brexit, there is no question. If the economy tanks, it unambiguously means Brexit was wrong and Tories should be punished. If nothing happens (and it probably will) then it unambiguously means that the Remainers are hysterical children who should never be trusted with power.

I was referring to any withdrawal agreement, not the existing withdrawal agreement. I'm not stupid enough to think that May's deal was popular in Parliament or the country...
I do live in the UK and I understand the political issues. You haven't given me any practical reasons why a no deal Brexit would be preferable to any improved deal for the economy and trade etc. if such a deal were to be achieved. And in regards to your third point, a new point of division a la the referendum is not a tenable option of the country as a whole wants to 'get this over with' and move on to other things.

My prediction: Boris-led Tories shoot to the top of the polls. Election almost immediately. New withdraw agreement passes. Boris remains popular. No idea where this stuff about the Canadian Progressive Conservatives is coming from, it's not going to happen.

And that strikes me very much as what YOU want to happen.

I would rather No Deal Brexit happen.

What is the logic behind preferring No Deal to a Withdrawal Agreement that was both popular in Parliament and in the country at large?

1) it isn't popular in parliament or in the country.

2) If you're going to exit the EU, exit the EU. Withdrawal is Brexit in name only.

3) Get the issue over with. If you do fake Brexit, no matter what happens, Remainers and Brexiteers can claim that the economy failed/didn't fail because their option won out. If you do a real Brexit, there is no question. If the economy tanks, it unambiguously means Brexit was wrong and Tories should be punished. If nothing happens (and it probably will) then it unambiguously means that the Remainers are hysterical children who should never be trusted with power.

Number 1's importance isn't even comparable to the other two. The Overton Window has shifted so much these past three years (Thanks to Farage and Tory incompetence) that recently a poll found close to 40% of the country supported No Deal. That's not just a overwhelming majority of Leave voters, it's a majority so large that if a politician claims to represent Brexit these days it's required to support No Deal in some form.

Also, a no-deal Brexit wouldn't come close to getting the issue 'over with'. As soon as the UK approached the EU for talks on a new arrangement (FTA, Canada +++, whatever), the EU will make a precondition of talks that the UK accept the WA in full - backstop, payments, citizens rights. A no-deal scenario would be far more politically untenable and (overconfident assertions to the contrary notwithstanding) economically painful for the UK than the EU, so it is virtually certain the UK will end up having to accept the EU's offer, if only to staunch the self-inflicted bleeding of no-deal.

Indeed.  

[beesley]

Interesting Conservative Home poll - Johnson 72, Hunt 28.

[CumbrianLefty]

About the same as YouGov's figures.

Still think Johnson might win by slightly less than that - maybe the comparison might be with the last contest that went to the membership, when Cameron beat Davis 67.5-32.5.

[brucejoel99]

Interesting Conservative Home poll - Johnson 72, Hunt 28.

Ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[Angel of Death]

Anyone dare to speculate who might have joined Boris Johnson in the final membership vote, if instant-runoff voting had been used instead, denying MPs the tactical knowledge in between rounds?

[Gary J]

Boris Johnson, as expected, won. He is due to become Prime Minister tomorrow afternoon.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49084605

[Middle-aged Europe]

Boris Johnson, as expected, won. He is due to become Prime Minister tomorrow afternoon.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49084605

God help us all.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Boris Johnson, as expected, won. He is due to become Prime Minister tomorrow afternoon.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49084605

Why are the Conservatives like this?

[Gary J]

Boris Johnson, as expected, won. He is due to become Prime Minister tomorrow afternoon.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49084605

Why are the Conservatives like this?

The obvious answer is that Conservative Party members are wildy unrepresentative of the general population. They really want to leave the European Union, at almost any cost. Boris Johnson did a better job convincing this particular narrow segment of the population than his rival; even though by the end the pressure of pandering to the same group left both of them with almost identical policies on Brexit.

[Walmart_shopper]

Boris Johnson, as expected, won. He is due to become Prime Minister tomorrow afternoon.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49084605

Why are the Conservatives like this?

The obvious answer is that Conservative Party members are wildy unrepresentative of the general population. They really want to leave the European Union, at almost any cost. Boris Johnson did a better job convincing this particular narrow segment of the population than his rival; even though by the end the pressure of pandering to the same group left both of them with almost identical policies on Brexit.

The demographic profile of the Tory voter is almost comically quaint. We like to joke about right wing voters as plodding old toffs with bars of gold stuffed under mattresses for when either the Bolsheviks or Muslims take over. But in Britain's case this is actually not a joke. Brexit has taken on an almost cosmic significance to these folks for rhis reason. And it is forcing the Tories down this ruinous no deal path all because Stanley and Aubyn are convinced that the Moors are coming for them.

[parochial boy]

I don't think it's fear of foreigners so much as an absolute, unshakeable belief that they have the natural born right to tell everybody else what to do - and as an extension of that, the UK has the same unshakeable right to tell other countries what they should do; and Johnny Foreigner having is own ideas is an inherent threat to that.

[DavidB.]

About the same as YouGov's figures.

Still think Johnson might win by slightly less than that - maybe the comparison might be with the last contest that went to the membership, when Cameron beat Davis 67.5-32.5.

Good call.

[brucejoel99]

Ladies & gentlemen, may I present to you, Boris Johnson, the newly elected Prime Minister of the United Kingdom:

Boris Johnson, as expected, won. He is due to become Prime Minister tomorrow afternoon.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49084605

God help us all.

Welcome to the club. Signed, America.