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Posts: 3,681
Political Matrix E: -4.42, S: 1.82
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« on: May 23, 2019, 06:08:45 PM » |
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Its hard to imagine an election not being called when the Tories were leading by 20 points, but if one wasn't calls I don't think it actually changes much in terms of implementing Brexit as the parliamentary arithmetic didn't really change that much, the Tories went from 330 seats to 318, hardly different. What actually changed in 2017 was more that Theresa May went from being a relatively popular Prime Minister to an unpopular, generally distrusted prime minister - Labour had momentum and the Tories voters became less confident in May. This definitely affected her authority in terms of getting MPs to fall in line, but her authority, popularity and polling lead likely would have fallen anyway as the Brexit negotiations went on and the two sides became more and more entrenched. I think there'd be afew differences:
- The Labour party would continue to tear itself apart as the Labour right continued to distrust Corbyn. I think the split in February this year likely would have happened a lot earlier. - May's Brexit deal is defeated by a slightly smaller but still a record breaking margin.
All in all, the more I think about it, the more I think that not much would have actually changed.
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