What if May had never called an early election?
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  What if May had never called an early election?
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Author Topic: What if May had never called an early election?  (Read 998 times)
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« on: May 22, 2019, 06:37:45 PM »

Where would we be now?
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thumb21
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« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2019, 06:08:45 PM »

Its hard to imagine an election not being called when the Tories were leading by 20 points, but if one wasn't calls I don't think it actually changes much in terms of implementing Brexit as the parliamentary arithmetic didn't really change that much, the Tories went from 330 seats to 318, hardly different. What actually changed in 2017 was more that Theresa May went from being a relatively popular Prime Minister to an unpopular, generally distrusted prime minister - Labour had momentum and the Tories voters became less confident in May. This definitely affected her authority in terms of getting MPs to fall in line, but her authority, popularity and polling lead likely would have fallen anyway as the Brexit negotiations went on and the two sides became more and more entrenched. I think there'd be afew differences:

- The Labour party would continue to tear itself apart as the Labour right continued to distrust Corbyn. I think the split in February this year likely would have happened a lot earlier.
- May's Brexit deal is defeated by a slightly smaller but still a record breaking margin.

All in all, the more I think about it, the more I think that not much would have actually changed.
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Pericles
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« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2019, 09:30:45 PM »

Perhaps a snap election is called later on. The outcome depends on how things play out, but if the election does end up being more Brexit-focused than irl's 2017 election then that could end up going well for the Tories.
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DKrol
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« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2019, 09:32:33 PM »

May would probably be able to get on until March of 2019, when the WBA has still not been agreed to, and then call a snap election after asking the EU for an extension to Article 50.
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« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2019, 06:35:13 PM »

Its strange to think of now, but if Theresa May didn't call an election, it likely would be looked back on as a major mistake on her part, even more so than Gordon Brown not calling an election in 2007.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2019, 01:55:27 AM »

She definitely would've been in a stronger position this whole time, that's for sure.

With a majority, however small, she wouldn't have needed to join forces with the DUP, & would've stuck to the first version of the Irish border backstop, placing checks across the Irish Sea.

That position wouldn't have created such anger amongst Tory MPs, & she could've plausibly gotten her deal passed.

But no, Mrs. Strong & Stable just needed that 200 seat majority oh so badly. And look where it got her.
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