Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

For what it's worth, ED votes are 80% R, 20% D at the moment. Hang on for the next few hours...

30 minutes later: now at 73% R, 27% D.

Just to illustrate lagging votes: both Dekalb and Fulton are basically only 60/40 in favor of Ds at the moment. Cobb, Chatham and Gwinnett are currently statistically tied.

Another 15 minutes later: now at 66% R, 34% D.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Quite funny in hindsight:

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1527467240248991744

He isn't wrong.

He isn't down by 30%.

He is down by 50%.

[Adam Griffin]

Now I'm even more pissed off: did they take away the county result maps for contests on the GA SOS website? Thanks, SB202

[Adam Griffin]

Hice is currently leading in 23/159 counties: a large percentage are either very underreporting at the moment or in his CD. Most of these counties are tiny and irrelevant (exceptions: minor/plurality leads in Columbia, Jackson, Newton; majority leads in Barrow and Walton). Let's just see if Raffy can hold onto a majority once the more D areas pour in.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I wish we didn't have to go on a wild goose chase for which site has the fastest reporting for each state. It's annoying as f**k.

Regardless, Hice just needs to cut SoS by 2%. With the ED vote that's doable.

[emailking]

97% in and he has 51.6%.

[Roll Roons]

97% in and he has 51.6%.

Yeah, this is 100% over.

[Sestak]

I think Raffensberger probably would have ended up winning anyway given these numbers, but it's also close enough that Dem crossovers may very well have put him over the runoff mark.

[Adam Griffin]

I think Raffensberger probably would have ended up winning anyway given these numbers, but it's also close enough that Dem crossovers may very well have put him over the runoff mark.

Definitely: his current margin is more than double what the net crossover effect would give him (assuming 100% of Ds voted for him), but it may make the difference between an absolute win versus a runoff.

[Adam Griffin]

For what it's worth, ED votes are 80% R, 20% D at the moment. Hang on for the next few hours...

30 minutes later: now at 73% R, 27% D.

Just to illustrate lagging votes: both Dekalb and Fulton are basically only 60/40 in favor of Ds at the moment. Cobb, Chatham and Gwinnett are currently statistically tied.

Another 15 minutes later: now at 66% R, 34% D.

Now at 63% R, 37% D.

[emailking]

CNN projects Raffensperger wins it outright.

[Buzz]

Burt Jones is going to be very close to falling under the 50% mark.

[Adam Griffin]

Looks like we're on track for a 60% R, 40% D primary split. If the crossover share from EV holds for ED as well, we're basically looking at an effective turnout comparable to the EV distribution (56.5% R, 43.5% D).

Not great for Democrats, but not a death sentence, either: basically right on the mantle of feasibility for November (my internal tipping point was if the share of the electorate pulling GOP ballots was >61%, then it's over for Democrats in November).

[Devils30]

The 2024 election in Georgia is safe now, PA and AZ are the bigger concern at the moment.

Herschel Walker also ran 15-25 points behind Kemp in the Atlanta area counties, you can see the weakness he'll have relative to Kemp in November. Warnock needs to run a moderate campaign, attack Walker's past and not do campaign events with Abrams (who is cooked).

[Horus]

The 2024 election in Georgia is safe now, PA and AZ are the bigger concern at the moment.

Herschel Walker also ran 15-25 points behind Kemp in the Atlanta area counties, you can see the weakness he'll have relative to Kemp in November. Warnock needs to run a moderate campaign, attack Walker's past and not do campaign events with Abrams (who is cooked).

Warnock comes off mild mannered and moderate despite a fairly solid D voting record. He doesn't endlessly self promote or put on a show like Stacey. He speaks directly to the voters in his ads and makes appeals to faith, family and kitchen table issues.

It's the perfect formula for this state, but a perfect formula may not be enough to hold off the wave. Tilt D.

[The Mikado]

The 2024 election in Georgia is safe now, PA and AZ are the bigger concern at the moment.

Herschel Walker also ran 15-25 points behind Kemp in the Atlanta area counties, you can see the weakness he'll have relative to Kemp in November. Warnock needs to run a moderate campaign, attack Walker's past and not do campaign events with Abrams (who is cooked).

Warnock comes off mild mannered and moderate despite a fairly solid D voting record. He doesn't endlessly self promote or put on a show like Stacey. He speaks directly to the voters in his ads and makes appeals to faith, family and kitchen table issues.

It's the perfect formula for this state, but a perfect formula may not be enough to hold off the wave. Tilt D.

As odd as it is, I'd put the Democrats in danger in the Senate in the order:

Kelly
Cortez-Masto
Warnock
Hassan

And Warnock only being #3 most endangered is a wild concept for me, but I think it's right.

Mark Kelly needs to be praying that the carnival freak show that is the GOP primary over in AZ produces some more good ammo.

[Buzz]

I will admit Warnock has the best TV ads of any politician I've seen in a long while.  Very effective.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL, Trump got chucked. Kempslide and even Raffensberger avoids a runoff. Who would have thought? Maybe the Trump fever is finally broken, although that doesn't mean the GOP gets less insane now.

[OSR stands with Israel]

There are apparently a decent number of people who voted for Kemp, Raffensperger and MTG. I don't know anything anymore.

Incumbency

[Rookie Yinzer]

Warnock needs to run a moderate campaign, attack Walker's past and not do campaign events with Abrams (who is cooked).

This is absolutely ridiculous.

[Inmate Trump]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

F Donald Trump.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Glad that Republican primary voters made a choice in favour of the supporters of the democratic process. It's of course bad that this is even an issue in the first place, but the outcome is still the most ideal one possible.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like we're on track for a 60% R, 40% D primary split. If the crossover share from EV holds for ED as well, we're basically looking at an effective turnout comparable to the EV distribution (56.5% R, 43.5% D).

Not great for Democrats, but not a death sentence, either: basically right on the mantle of feasibility for November (my internal tipping point was if the share of the electorate pulling GOP ballots was >61%, then it's over for Democrats in November).

Given the amount of crossover vote and the nonexistent races on the Dem side makes the comparisons moot, though.

[Sir Mohamed]

Will Mr. Trump endorse Abrams now?

[Agafin]

On NBC, with ~99% of the vote reported, there are 709756 votes on the D side and 1193642 on the R side. That means a partisan split of 62.7%-37.3%. The breakdown by voting method is:

66.9%-33.1% election day (56% of total)
58.4%-41.6% early in person (40% of total)
52.2%-47.8% early by mail (4% of total).

How does that compare to 2020 and earlier? It seems to me like the number of people voting by mail is drastically less than before. And btw, do third parties also hold primaries in Georgia?