Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[😥]

Tossup, but she is a slight favorite as for now

[Duke of York]

Georgia governor is now lean D.

[Ferguson97]

It would be very interesting if Democrats win the 2022 race despite losing in 2018.

[GALeftist]

Me gustan los subtítulos en español. Multilingual outreach was critical to recent Democratic victories in Georgia, and it looks like the people in the party have realized this. (Take notes Florida Democrats )

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, Georgia is pretty much where Virginia was a decade ago. It's only a matter of time before the Democrats take over the state.

On a slightly off topic note, did we ever figure out why KLB didn't run for reelection in Atlanta?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah, Georgia is pretty much where Virginia was a decade ago. It's only a matter of time before the Democrats take over the state.

Georgia is at least as much of a reverse Mississippi as it is a Virginia. Being in the Deep South tends to come with extreme inelasticity.

[Buzz]

This is Likely D.  GEORGIA is a blue state

[Roll Roons]

Yeah, Georgia is pretty much where Virginia was a decade ago. It's only a matter of time before the Democrats take over the state.

Georgia is at least as much of a reverse Mississippi as it is a Virginia. Being in the Deep South tends to come with extreme inelasticity.

Yeah, Virginia remains slightly more elastic because it's more influenced by the Northeast. Going forward, I could see Virginia being blue in federal races but somewhat swingy at the gubernatorial level, while Georgia is solidly Dem for a long time.

2002 was the first time Georgia elected a GOP Governor since Reconstruction, so there's precedent for one party dominating the state.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Cook just moved the gubernatorial race to Tossup from Lean R.

They also moved MA from Solid R to Lean D, which is laughable.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Cook just moved the gubernatorial race to Tossup from Lean R.

They also moved MA from Solid R to Lean D, which is laughable.

You mean, from Lean R to Tossup, surely?

[LAB-LIB]

https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1466140248887418885

Endorsed

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Cook just moved the gubernatorial race to Tossup from Lean R.

They also moved MA from Solid R to Lean D, which is laughable.

You mean, from Lean R to Tossup, surely?

Yes, that's what I said.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Cook just moved the gubernatorial race to Tossup from Lean R.

They also moved MA from Solid R to Lean D, which is laughable.

You mean, from Lean R to Tossup, surely?

Yes, that's what I said.

Ah, just wanted to be sure. And for sake of clarity for thread readers.
Thanks for the notice.

[President Johnson]

Endorsed.

Pure tossup -> Pure tossup

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1466140248887418885

Endorsed

[Ferguson97]

This is Likely D.  GEORGIA is a blue state

Really interested in your take as a local. Do you think Kemp is a weaker or stronger opponent for Abrams?

[Bootes Void]

I'm going to guess Kemp narrowly hold on. Likely Kemp+3 against Abrams or so

[GregTheGreat657]

Stacey Abrams is in
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/01/politics/stacey-abrams-georgia-governor-race/index.html

This was inevitable from the very moment she pushed the 'voter suppression rhetoric

[Mr. Illini]

Yep, endorsed.

As others said, take notes at how competently her campaign is run, Democrats. Though, I would posit that the Illinois Democrats may be a slightly more effective party, albeit more in an old school sense.

[Mexican Wolf]

Very much endorsed!

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Could be tossup, but I am going to say Lean R post-Virginia.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yep, endorsed.

As others said, take notes at how competently her campaign is run, Democrats. Though, I would posit that the Illinois Democrats may be a slightly more effective party, albeit more in an old school sense.

I absolutely agree Abrams is a great campaigner. She knows how to run a campaign.
I agree also with the rest of your comments as well.
Looking forward to Abrams' general election campaign. She's very probably going to win the primary.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

https://wgxa.tv/news/local/warner-robins-citizens-head-to-the-polls-to-cast-vote-for-mayoral-run-off-election

 LaRhonda Patrick elected first woman and first black mayor of Warner Robins ousting the incumbent.

Toms is supremely disliked here so I’m not surprised, especially with Houston County trending Dem the last 2 cycles. But I ammm kinda disappointed because I wanted to be the first. I actually considered running this year but decided it was too soon and too much work as a first-year teacher.

[GALeftist]

This is Likely D.  GEORGIA is a blue state

Really interested in your take as a local. Do you think Kemp is a weaker or stronger opponent for Abrams?

Kemp is definitely weaker than he was in 2018; back then, he at least had the unanimous support of his own party, but it's pretty obvious that that's no longer the case. It's certainly possible that the GAGOP patches things up after an ugly primary, but I'd say it's still cause for alarm. Rightly or wrongly, the consternation over Abrams's refusal to concede in 2018 is mostly an online phenomenon, she still seems highly popular among suburban voters in Atlanta from what I can tell. The obvious downside for Abrams is that 2022 looks likely to be a favorable year for Republicans nationwide, but then again, Georgia has historically been relatively insulated from national swings (although that doesn't necessarily mean that this is a general rule!). This is a tossup race if there is one, but gun to my head Abrams squeaks it out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is Likely D.  GEORGIA is a blue state

Really interested in your take as a local. Do you think Kemp is a weaker or stronger opponent for Abrams?

Kemp is definitely weaker than he was in 2018; back then, he at least had the unanimous support of his own party, but it's pretty obvious that that's no longer the case. It's certainly possible that the GAGOP patches things up after an ugly primary, but I'd say it's still cause for alarm. Rightly or wrongly, the consternation over Abrams's refusal to concede in 2018 is mostly an online phenomenon, she still seems highly popular among suburban voters in Atlanta from what I can tell. The obvious downside for Abrams is that 2022 looks likely to be a favorable year for Republicans nationwide, but then again, Georgia has historically been relatively insulated from national swings (although that doesn't necessarily mean that this is a general rule!). This is a tossup race if there is one, but gun to my head Abrams squeaks it out.

I agree with all of this, and will add that IMO David Perdue would be no stronger a general election candidate than Kemp, and might even be weaker.  He has zero charisma, no record of accomplishments (quick: name one thing Perdue got done in the Senate, without Googling), and nothing to appeal to voters apart from the (R) after his name.

In the very unlikely event that Vernon Jones wins the primary, Abrams will clobber him.