Ukrainian Parliamentary Election, 2019

[kelestian]

President Zelenskiy dissolved Parliament. Snap election on the 21th of July.

Latest opinion poll:
Servant of the People (Zelensky's party) - 39.9%
Opposition Bloc - For Life (pro-russian) - 10.9%
BPP (former president Poroshenko) - 10.6%
Fatherland (Timoshenko) - 9.1%
Strength and Honor (Smeshko, former head of intelligence) - 5.1%
Civil Position (Hrytsenko, former minister of defense) - 5%

Other parties under threshold (5%)

[bigic]

I think that Zelensky's party has a chance to win absolute majority on these numbers because under the Ukrainian electoral system half of the seats are elected by FPTP, while the other half is elected proportionally by party list.

[kelestian]

Zelenskiy and some parties want change electoral system before election. They propose full-proportional system with 3% threshold.

[PSOL]

Why is Self Reliance doing poorly in the recent polls?

[kelestian]

Why is Self Reliance doing poorly in the recent polls?

Internal divisions within the party (leadership expelled the whole Kiev regional party organisation),
Low ratings of party leader Sadovy - his reputation suffered after refusal crysis in Lviv (Sadovy is mayor of Lviv),
Unclear party identity - is it liberal cosmopolitan party of urban population from different parts of Ukraine or another national-conservative party with western electorate?

[bigic]

Zelenskiy and some parties want change electoral system before election. They propose full-proportional system with 3% threshold.

It would be good, as I think the proportional system is vastly superior to other electoral systems. But I wonder why the Zelensky's party wants to change the system that would probably greatly favour them.

[kelestian]

Parliament rejected Zelenskiy's proposals. Election will be under current laws, 225 seats by proportional system with 5% threshold, 199 legislators will be elected in fptp districts.

[kelestian]

Fresh poll from "Rating":

Without undecided

Servant of the People (Zelensky) - 48.2%
Opposition Bloc For Life (pro-russian) - 10.7%
European Solidarity (Poroshenko) - 7.8%
Fatherland (Timoshenko) - 6.9%
Voice Party (singer Vakarchuk) - 5.6%

Other parties below 5% threshold.

[bigic]

Fresh poll from "Rating":

Without undecided

Servant of the People (Zelensky) - 48.2%
Opposition Bloc For Life (pro-russian) - 10.7%
European Solidarity (Poroshenko) - 7.8%
Fatherland (Timoshenko) - 6.9%
Voice Party (singer Vakarchuk) - 5.6%

Other parties below 5% threshold.

According to the https://icon.cat/util/elections D'Hondt calculator, these parties would get seats in the proportional part:

Servant of the People 138
Opposition Bloc For Life 30
European Solidarity 22
Fatherland 19
Voice Party 16

If enough good candidates are contesting the FPTP seats for Zelensky's new party, they will also sweep most FPTP seats, giving Zelensky a huge majority.

BTW I don't think Poroshenko rebranding his party would bring any success.

[kelestian]

Elections in a week! Surprisingly, results of the polls haven't changed much since early June.

Last Rating poll:
Servant of the People (Zelensky) - 47.0%
Opposition Bloc For Life (pro-russian) - 11.6%
European Solidarity (Poroshenko) - 8.2%
Fatherland (Timoshenko) - 6.4%
Voice Party (singer Vakarchuk) - 6.6%

I've seen some polls from fptp constituencies, they all are pretty bad for Servant of the People. Zelensky's candidates in fptp districts are mostly nobodies with little name recognition and political background, they ran well behind Servant of the People and Zelensky's ratings. So, probably there will be many independent winners in fptp districts (former deputies from BPP and Popular Front also ran as independents), i'm curious about what government coalition will look like.

[smoltchanov]

Not bad. Zelensky is sane and we can deal with him (probably). There are numerous not so big, but important for many people, problems, that could be solved if there is desire...

[Karpatsky]

Looks like the only interesting thing to watch is whether Sich or Golos gets in. I imagine Ze-kom is hoping for the latter, since they more likely than not won't get a majority and they already said they won't coalition with Tymoshenko. Vakarchuk embarrassed himself in the debate, but he probably still has an edge there.

Whatever the results, the way this election has shaped up does not make me optimistic. Ze's list, and especially candidates for SMDs, are full of people with old connections, and the real Maidan activists have almost entirely been removed from the political sphere.

[smoltchanov]

Looks like the only interesting thing to watch is whether Sich or Golos gets in. I imagine Ze-kom is hoping for the latter, since they more likely than not won't get a majority and they already said they won't coalition with Tymoshenko. Vakarchuk embarrassed himself in the debate, but he probably still has an edge there.

Whatever the results, the way this election has shaped up does not make me optimistic. Ze's list, and especially candidates for SMDs, are full of people with old connections, and the real Maidan activists have almost entirely been removed from the political sphere.

Activists are always removed from political sphere, when they stop to be needed. Politics is a cynical thing, and "waste" is thrown out mercilessly....

[😥]

I do not want to see the Servant of the people in the coalition for many reasons, but this party will be there unambiguously
The best coalition for me would be the Servant of the People, Fatherland, Strenght and Honor

[😥]

Looks like the only interesting thing to watch is whether Sich or Golos gets in. I imagine Ze-kom is hoping for the latter, since they more likely than not won't get a majority and they already said they won't coalition with Tymoshenko. Vakarchuk embarrassed himself in the debate, but he probably still has an edge there.

Whatever the results, the way this election has shaped up does not make me optimistic. Ze's list, and especially candidates for SMDs, are full of people with old connections, and the real Maidan activists have almost entirely been removed from the political sphere.

Where did you find information that the Servant of the People gave up the coalition with Tymoshenko?

[Karpatsky]

Looks like the only interesting thing to watch is whether Sich or Golos gets in. I imagine Ze-kom is hoping for the latter, since they more likely than not won't get a majority and they already said they won't coalition with Tymoshenko. Vakarchuk embarrassed himself in the debate, but he probably still has an edge there.

Whatever the results, the way this election has shaped up does not make me optimistic. Ze's list, and especially candidates for SMDs, are full of people with old connections, and the real Maidan activists have almost entirely been removed from the political sphere.

Where did you find information that the Servant of the People gave up the coalition with Tymoshenko?

I actually heard it secondhand via a speaker at an event I was at, but looking around the news sphere, it looks like the probably initial source for her was an anonymous source inside the party who has been talking to various news sources. As examples:

Однако любая коалиция предполагает встречные условия со стороны партнера, а это создает дополнительные сложности для партии президента. Несмотря на то что «Батькивщина» идет по опросам на третьем месте, союз с желающей вернуться на пост премьера Юлией Тимошенко собеседник в «Слуге народа» называет одной из самых нежелательных конфигураций для партии. «С ней мы вряд ли сможем конструктивно сотрудничать. Если она будет выставлять условием премьерский пост, коалиция практически невозможна», — объясняет он.

«Слуга народа» считает минусами «личностные психологические особенности Юлии Владимировны (она не делится властью)», а также «недостаточно четко артикулированную позицию по вопросам отношений с ЕС, НАТО, Россией и по экономическим реформам». Главным преимуществом лидера «Батькивщины» собеседник РБК в «Слуге народа» называет опыт и глубокое понимание работы политических механизмов.

"Коалиция должна быть 226+. Но для многих решений, вроде неприкосновенности, реформы Нацрады по телевидению и радиовещанию и т.д. нам потребуется 300+ голосов. Мы категорически против любого раскачивания обстановки, но мы же можем пригласить наших сторонников мирно выйти под Верховную раду. И я хотел бы увидеть, как таком случае кто-то не проголосует за ту же отмену неприкосновенности", - сказал собеседник в штабе "Слуги народа".

[😥]

Looks like the only interesting thing to watch is whether Sich or Golos gets in. I imagine Ze-kom is hoping for the latter, since they more likely than not won't get a majority and they already said they won't coalition with Tymoshenko. Vakarchuk embarrassed himself in the debate, but he probably still has an edge there.

Whatever the results, the way this election has shaped up does not make me optimistic. Ze's list, and especially candidates for SMDs, are full of people with old connections, and the real Maidan activists have almost entirely been removed from the political sphere.

Where did you find information that the Servant of the People gave up the coalition with Tymoshenko?

I actually heard it secondhand via a speaker at an event I was at, but looking around the news sphere, it looks like the probably initial source for her was an anonymous source inside the party who has been talking to various news sources. As examples:

Однако любая коалиция предполагает встречные условия со стороны партнера, а это создает дополнительные сложности для партии президента. Несмотря на то что «Батькивщина» идет по опросам на третьем месте, союз с желающей вернуться на пост премьера Юлией Тимошенко собеседник в «Слуге народа» называет одной из самых нежелательных конфигураций для партии. «С ней мы вряд ли сможем конструктивно сотрудничать. Если она будет выставлять условием премьерский пост, коалиция практически невозможна», — объясняет он.

«Слуга народа» считает минусами «личностные психологические особенности Юлии Владимировны (она не делится властью)», а также «недостаточно четко артикулированную позицию по вопросам отношений с ЕС, НАТО, Россией и по экономическим реформам». Главным преимуществом лидера «Батькивщины» собеседник РБК в «Слуге народа» называет опыт и глубокое понимание работы политических механизмов.

"Коалиция должна быть 226+. Но для многих решений, вроде неприкосновенности, реформы Нацрады по телевидению и радиовещанию и т.д. нам потребуется 300+ голосов. Мы категорически против любого раскачивания обстановки, но мы же можем пригласить наших сторонников мирно выйти под Верховную раду. И я хотел бы увидеть, как таком случае кто-то не проголосует за ту же отмену неприкосновенности", - сказал собеседник в штабе "Слуги народа".

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2019/07/19/7221358/

[😥]

My prediction for this election:
Servant of the People: 46-47%
Opposition Platform - For Life: 10-11%
Fatherland: 7-8%
European Solidarity: 7-8%
Voice: 5-6%
Strenght and Honor: 5-6%

Ukrainian Strategy: 3%
Opposition Bloc: 3%
Radical Party: 2-3%
Civil Platform: 2%

[PSOL]

Why did Civil Platform and the Radical Party fall so low? Damn, Akhmetov’s latter vehicle got shafted.

[😥]

Why did Civil Platform and the Radical Party fall so low? Damn, Akhmetov’s latter vehicle got shafted.

The Civil Platform's electorate is similar to the Strenght and Honor's and Voice's electorate, so more popular parties have now cast votes in Hrytsenko.

Lyashko did not remain popular because of his excessive populism. He did not do anything important for the country, but speaks a lot.

[kelestian]

Why did Civil Platform and the Radical Party fall so low? Damn, Akhmetov’s latter vehicle got shafted.

The Civil Platform's electorate is similar to the Strenght and Honor's and Voice's electorate, so more popular parties have now cast votes in Hrytsenko.

Lyashko did not remain popular because of his excessive populism. He did not do anything important for the country, but speaks a lot.

Lyashko is Populist In Name Only, spoke a lot and later voted with government.
Also after bad result in presidential, Akhmetov stripped Radical Party from money

[jaichind]

Any link to results?

[😥]

Any link to results?

We will have 5 qualified exit polls at 8 pm (GMT+3), and then the results of the official counting on the site of the Central Election Commission

https://www.cvk.gov.ua

[😥]

Why did Civil Platform and the Radical Party fall so low? Damn, Akhmetov’s latter vehicle got shafted.

The Civil Platform's electorate is similar to the Strenght and Honor's and Voice's electorate, so more popular parties have now cast votes in Hrytsenko.

Lyashko did not remain popular because of his excessive populism. He did not do anything important for the country, but speaks a lot.

Lyashko is Populist In Namo Only, spoke a lot and later voted with government.
Also after bad result in presidential, Akhmetov stripped Radical Party from money

Lyashko did not always vote with the government, but basically so
I totally agree with you

[jaichind]

Well.  Aftet this election Zelensky will have no excuses not to deliver as he will have total control.