New Gallup poll- 5/10

[Reds4]

Looks like Bush may well be in trouble. Myself as a Bush supporter feel that Bush's chances of winning have dropped a little beloe 50% now. Here is the new gallup poll released a few minutes ago.  http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm
If the link doesn't work just copy and paste.
I notice this poll was conducted on Mother's Day weekend, even some of the samples on Mother's Day itself. Also, the poll's sample size is half the regular gallup sample size. Anyone have any input on whether the Mother's Day weekend polling could tilt toward Democrats, as many say weekend polling usually does? Also, the likely voters shows Bush ahead 48% to 47% over Kerry but registered shows Kerry up by 6. This poll seems quite awkward to me, at least for such a reputable polling company. I still do think though, that this trend is very worrisome for Bush.

[© tweed]

Likely voters is all that matters.
Kerry just can't capitalize on Bush's vulnerability, which there is plenty of.

[Reds4]

I agree likely voters matters a lot, but approval at 46% disapproval 51% is very disturbing.

[© tweed]

I agree likely voters matters a lot, but approval at 46% disapproval 51% is very disturbing.

If Bush is at 45% on election day we will probably win by a sizeable margin...if he is a 40% it will be close...at 35% he's dead.

[lidaker]

If he's at 45% on election day he will probably lose, if he's at 40% he will certainly lose, if he's at 35% he will lose badly.

[© tweed]

If he's at 45% on election day he will probably lose, if he's at 40% he will certainly lose, if he's at 35% he will lose badly.

He would still probably win at 45% approval.

[lidaker]

I think you have to be at 49% to be elected, statistically.

[California Dreamer]

According to this the Bush base is slipping:

Approve of Bush: 46
'Satisfied with way things are going': 37 (aka 'right track')
Approve of Bush handling of Economy: 41
Approve of situation in Iraq: 41
'worth going into iraq'" 44
Approve of Bush handling of Terrorism: 54
'would vote for Bush': 43 (all Adults) 44 (registerd) 48 (likely)


It seems the only thing going for Bush is that likely voters trend conservative and also more likely to keep an incumbant.

This means that the election may indeed come down to turnout. The Dems are going to have to improve their ground game (and luckily for them ACT, one of the Soros funded endeavors is focussing Registration and GOTV). And the Republicans are going to try to supress turnout; negative campaigning usually works so expect quite a lot of that

[Giant Saguaro]

This differs slightly from the one on Gallup's home page from a few days ago, but they're both in the same ballpark. 48-47 and 49-48, from this one and the other Gallup poll, are finally numbers that look realistic.

46% is bad news and normally I'd say Bush is done, but he's up against Kerry - who's approval is even scarier and with this country being so ultra polarized, 46% isn't so alarming - he can probably scrape through with a win at 45-49% approval. Below 45, Republicans will just stay at home.

[The Vorlon]

Likely Voters:

Bush 48
Kerry 47
 
Gain of 2 for Bush from Gallup survey last week.

Bush 47
Kerry 45
Nader 5

Gain of 2 for Bush from Gallup survey last week

Registered Voters

Kerry 50
Bush 44

Gain of 6 for Kerry from Gallup survey last week

Kerry 46
Bush 41
Nader 7

Gain of 6 for Kerry from Gallup survey last week.


By Jill Lawrence, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — President Bush's approval rating dropped to the lowest of his presidency in a poll taken after a week of revelations about abuse of Iraqi prisoners and questions about whether Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld should keep his job.
Forty-six percent of Americans approve of Bush's job performance in the USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll released Monday. That's 3 percentage points lower than his 49% in late January, early March and last week. A majority said they disapproved of his handling of Iraq and the economy. (Related link: Poll results)

The Bush decline did not produce new support for Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the expected Democratic presidential nominee. In a hypothetical matchup among likely voters, Kerry fell 2 points since last week — from 49% to 47% — and remained in a dead heat with Bush, who was steady at 48%.

In the 16 states that were close in 2000, the new poll shows Bush with a 5-point edge over Kerry, 51%-46%, among likely voters. In mid-April, Bush and Kerry were tied at 49%.

Vorlon Note - sample size in Battlegrounds "about" 240 people or so => +/- 6.4% or so

The states are Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Washington and Wisconsin.

Kerry is spending $25 million on an ad campaign about his life and record. To some extent, events in Iraq have overtaken the candidates' attempts to shape voter perceptions. Few changes in poll numbers are expected until the conventions and debates that focus voter attention on the race.

Republican pollster Bill McInturff says the new poll and his own research suggest Kerry is experiencing "some cumulative impact" of Bush ads that depict him as a flip-flopper who can't be trusted.

Kerry pollster Mark Mellman said the new poll shows Kerry gaining ground among registered voters, a bigger group than likely voters.

Kerry went from 47% to 50% in a week; Bush went from 47% to 44%. Mellman said that suggests Kerry's ad campaign and events in Iraq are taking a toll on Bush. He also said the only president "this far behind" at this point in an election year was Gerald Ford, and he lost.

McInturff countered that Bush is at 46% approval after six very difficult weeks in Iraq. He said that means "we are at a sustainable point to win re-election."

[© tweed]

I think you have to be at 49% to be elected, statistically.

Depends who your opponent is.  Kerry is weak, so Bush could win with a sub-45% approval rating.  If Edwards was his opponent, it would have to be at least 50% for Bush to win.

[opebo]

People may not approve of Bush, but because of the fear factor he will win even with low approval.  People are afraid to turn over their defense to some defeatist peacenic.  Better a cowboy who makes a lot of mistakes, but at least goes on the attack, than someone who just gives in.  America has always made a lot of mistakes in war, had bad, generals, etc., but we usually win in the end because of our deep pockets.  The only mistake that one cannot recover from is lack of ruthlessness.

[The Vorlon]

Looks like Bush may well be in trouble. Myself as a Bush supporter feel that Bush's chances of winning have dropped a little beloe 50% now. Here is the new gallup poll released a few minutes ago.  http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm
If the link doesn't work just copy and paste.
I notice this poll was conducted on Mother's Day weekend, even some of the samples on Mother's Day itself. Also, the poll's sample size is half the regular gallup sample size. Anyone have any input on whether the Mother's Day weekend polling could tilt toward Democrats, as many say weekend polling usually does? Also, the likely voters shows Bush ahead 48% to 47% over Kerry but registered shows Kerry up by 6. This poll seems quite awkward to me, at least for such a reputable polling company. I still do think though, that this trend is very worrisome for Bush.

The gallup sample was, I beleve (?) , their normal size.

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,003 National Adults, aged 18+, conducted May 7-9, 2004. For results based on the total sample of National Adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 575 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 General Election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. The likely voter model assumes a turnout of 50% of national adults, consistent with recent presidential elections. The likely voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption.[/i]

Normally, polling on Mothers day is not a great idea.  When you have a day with a typically heavy amount of travel associated with it, it tends to skew things a bit.  Typically these errors tend to help the democrats a bit.

That being said, Gallup does things correctly, and if they get no answer on an interview attempt, the make a "call backs" and try again at another time, and if after failed callback attempts they put in a replicate from the same demographic group.

Gallup is good enough that they could pull of a mothers day poll... Not a lot of firms I would trust to try it though...

This poll is actually "about" what I expected.  The Bush base get more "likely" as they rally to their candidate.

The highly unlikley voter is is barely tuned in says "Kerry" when asked because they have had an emotiional reaction to the prisoner abuse photos.

CBS News and ABC News, and Zogby will show pretty good swings to Kerry in the next polls (CBS will have Kerry +8-10 or so)

Gallup, TIPP, WSJ, Fox will stay pretty stable, maybe Bush lose a 2-3 points.

[12th Doctor]

Bush is still up in the poll against Kerry.  There is something else you should remember, some of the people who "disapprove" of Bush are going ot vote for him anyway.  Remember, some on the far right are angry with Bush.

[California Dreamer]

Although those of you who are hoping for a Bush win may take sollace in the fact that Bush is up slightly since last week...he is still down significantly since last month.

In every measure Bush has dropped 4-7 points in the last month

April 16th/Today
Head to Head (likely) Bush + 5 /  Bush +1 (-4)
Head to Head (registered): Bush +6 / Kerry + 6 (-12)
Approval: 52 / 46 (-6)
Satisfied: 41 / 37 (-4)
Economy: 46 / 41 (-5)
Iraq: 48/ 41  (-7)
Terrorism: 60 / 54  (-6)


spin it how you like, but Bush is in deep doo doo

[TheOldLine]

What's a "likely voter?"

TheOldLine

[© tweed]

What's a "likely voter?"

TheOldLine

Someone who describes themself as 'likely to vote' on election day.  LV usually favors the GOP because many of the people who are Dems do not vote.

[TheOldLine]

And if you think that responses to that question in May highly correlate to actual November results then you have another thing coming.....

[© tweed]

And if you think that responses to that question in May highly correlate to actual November results then you have another thing coming.....

When did I ever say that?



Gallup, 5/88: Dukakis +16

[TheOldLine]

"Likely Voters is all that matters."

I disagree... to the extent that any May poll means anything, I would argue that polls of registered voters or even of adults are far more interesting.

When a poll says that is done of "likely voters", that means that the pollsters engaged in all sorts of data-massaging, which are fraught with all sorts of bias and guess-work.    Thus, you have to be very, very, careful of "likely voter" results.   They certainly are *not* all that matters.

TheOldLine

[lidaker]

Oh no! Did you see? Vorlon is going on vacation for three hole weeks. The poll analyzing in this forum will fall into decay.

[ericadler]

I think Bush is actually doing surprisingly well.  I would expect him to be doing much worse in the polls after this whole prison abuse scandal.

[© tweed]

Oh no! Did you see? Vorlon is going on vacation for three hole weeks. The poll analyzing in this forum will fall into decay.

He is?

[lidaker]

Oh no! Did you see? Vorlon is going on vacation for three hole weeks. The poll analyzing in this forum will fall into decay.

He is?

Yeah, look at his username

[© tweed]

Oh no! Did you see? Vorlon is going on vacation for three hole weeks. The poll analyzing in this forum will fall into decay.

He is?

Yeah, look at his username

Uh-oh.