Places where McGovern-1972 did better than Carter-1976

[darklordoftech]

I think San Francisco is one

[morgankingsley]

Boston is one

[Politician]

Pitkin County, CO
Washtenaw County, MI
Clay County, SD

These three counties flipped from McGovern 72 to Ford 76.

[TDAS04]

My county (Minnehaha).  McGovern lost it by 0.1%, while a Ford beat Carter by 3%.

Other places that were more Democratic in 1972 than 1976, that haven’t already been mentioned:
-A handful of other SD counties.
-Dane County, WI
-Johnson County, IA
-Maybe some other college towns?
-Perhapes certain parts of MA & OR?
-Then there’s Alaska, where there was only a 2% difference between the 1972 and 1976 margins, so there must have been areas of the state where McGovern outperformed Carter.

[SingingAnalyst]

In MI, in addition to Washtenaw County: Carter did worse than McGovern in Ingham, Kent, and Ottawa Counties.

Overall, Carter outperformed McGovern by just 4.6 points in MI, but in much of the Northern Lower Peninsula, as well as Macomb County and much of the Thumb, Carter's gain over McGovern was near the national average.

[nclib]

Are there any that can't be explained by:

Very socially liberal areas who saw Carter as not liberal enough and not much difference ideologically than Ford.

McGovern's home state of SD and Ford's home state of MI.

Alaska - though there is really no way to find specific areas.

[Senator Incitatus]

I've actually been off-and-on doing the 1976 swing map, and I've only found a handful of counties so far where the margin swung to Ford by >2%:

Kent, MI (+15%)
Washtenaw, MI (+9.8%)
Suffolk, MA (+5.7%)
San Francisco, CA (+5%)
Benton, WA (+3%)

Kent is Ford's home county. Washtenaw is the home of his alma mater.

Suffolk (Boston) and San Francisco are obviously highly liberal cities where most of the vote actually went from McGovern to third parties, not Ford.

Benton is more interesting – it was actually Ford's best county in the state. I have no explanation for why he did well there, but the swing is still pretty small.

I haven't checked most of the Midwest or Plains yet, so there might be a few more there, especially in South Dakota. Almost all of the south swung ≥30% to Carter.

[SingingAnalyst]

Are there any that can't be explained by:

Very socially liberal areas who saw Carter as not liberal enough and not much difference ideologically than Ford.

McGovern's home state of SD and Ford's home state of MI.

Alaska - though there is really no way to find specific areas.

Yes. "Southie" (South Boston) is in a class by itself. Boston's Ward 6 went from 61/39 McGovern to 55/42 Ford; Ward 7 went from 66/34 McGovern to 50/47 Ford.

The reason, of course, is intense and sometimes violent opposition to busing.

[darklordoftech]

Are there any that can't be explained by:

Very socially liberal areas who saw Carter as not liberal enough and not much difference ideologically than Ford.

McGovern's home state of SD and Ford's home state of MI.

Alaska - though there is really no way to find specific areas.

Yes. "Southie" (South Boston) is in a class by itself. Boston's Ward 6 went from 61/39 McGovern to 55/42 Ford; Ward 7 went from 66/34 McGovern to 50/47 Ford.

The reason, of course, is intense and sometimes violent opposition to busing.

Why would anti-busing voters vote for McGovern?

[SingingAnalyst]

Are there any that can't be explained by:

Very socially liberal areas who saw Carter as not liberal enough and not much difference ideologically than Ford.

McGovern's home state of SD and Ford's home state of MI.

Alaska - though there is really no way to find specific areas.

Yes. "Southie" (South Boston) is in a class by itself. Boston's Ward 6 went from 61/39 McGovern to 55/42 Ford; Ward 7 went from 66/34 McGovern to 50/47 Ford.

The reason, of course, is intense and sometimes violent opposition to busing.

Why would anti-busing voters vote for McGovern?

Because busing wasn't ordered for Boston until 1974.

Even so, McGovern's showing was a far cry from Humphrey's 78% in each ward.

[Kleine Scheiße]

Pitkin County, CO

This was because Hunter Thompson was technically the only registered voter there until the general election of 1988.

[bagelman]

In Washtenaw MI, McGovern not only did better than Carter (fighting against a favorite son) but won a county that Nixon won in '68. What was with that place?

[Senator Incitatus]

In Washtenaw MI, McGovern not only did better than Carter (fighting against a favorite son) but won a county that Nixon won in '68. What was with that place?

That's where Ann Arbor is. Ford was the first Michigan grad to run for President and was a star on their football team to boot.

[bagelman]

In Washtenaw MI, McGovern not only did better than Carter (fighting against a favorite son) but won a county that Nixon won in '68. What was with that place?

That's where Ann Arbor is. Ford was the first Michigan grad to run for President and was a star on their football team to boot.

Yes but that doesn't explain how McGovern flipped the county from Nixon '68.

[Senator Incitatus]

In Washtenaw MI, McGovern not only did better than Carter (fighting against a favorite son) but won a county that Nixon won in '68. What was with that place?

That's where Ann Arbor is. Ford was the first Michigan grad to run for President and was a star on their football team to boot.

Yes but that doesn't explain how McGovern flipped the county from Nixon '68.

What constituency more than any other was pro-McGovern?

Hint: The only other Nixon-McGovern counties outside of South Dakota with a population of over 15,000 were Jackson (IL) and Athens (OH).

[Gracile]

In Washtenaw MI, McGovern not only did better than Carter (fighting against a favorite son) but won a county that Nixon won in '68. What was with that place?

That's where Ann Arbor is. Ford was the first Michigan grad to run for President and was a star on their football team to boot.

Yes but that doesn't explain how McGovern flipped the county from Nixon '68.

It's because 1972 was the first election cycle where the voting age was lowered to 18. McGovern did better due to the higher youth turnout from the university.