Biden's departure

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Let's assume Biden passes away some weeks prior to the Iowa caucus.
How would the primaries develop? Who would benefit the most from the thinned-out crowd?
How would his opponents comment on his death? Would they secretly feel relieved as to his passing (which they would nevertheless mourn, of course)?

[One Term Floridian]

For one thing, age immediately jumps to becoming a critical factor for Democratic voters in the primary. As such, Bernie's poll numbers would likely fall.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

For one thing, age immediately jumps to becoming a critical factor for Democratic voters in the primary. As such, Bernie's poll numbers would likely fall.

I'm sure his Bros would come and support him even after he has died.

[Mr. Smith]

I think the more interesting question is where things would go if he passed on right after Iowa, but before New Hampshire, or after the first 4 but before Super Tuesday...especially if he did win AOTA by a lot like the pundits everywhere are so keen on assuming.

And given the type of social environment we're looking at, WHY he passes on is also critical.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bernie would win the nomination

[Alben Barkley]

I think the more interesting question is where things would go if he passed on right after Iowa, but before New Hampshire, or after the first 4 but before Super Tuesday...especially if he did win AOTA by a lot like the pundits everywhere are so keen on assuming.

And given the type of social environment we're looking at, WHY he passes on is also critical.

Yeah, if Joe is assassinated that’s an entirely different conversation from if he dies of a heart attack or some other age-related reason. Which I think is pretty unlikely since he seems healthier than a lot of people half his age (I watched his rally today and he seemed in fine form), but I guess you never know. I think it goes without saying that this is a horrible hypothetical situation to talk about, and I’d hope we can all agree that we sincerely wish it never happens. But with that disclaimer...

If he’s killed, then depending on who did it, it could greatly contribute to an already unstable and volatile political climate that has teetered on the edge of violence more than a few times already. Tensions would likely become very high. If it was a MAGA nut who did it, I suspect whoever the Democratic nominee is ends up winning easily due to the sympathy vote, 1964 style, as well as an inflated desire for a return to stability and retreat from Trump’s inflammatory brand of politics. The nominee could well be someone like Michelle Obama stepping out of the shadows as some kind of unity gesture, rather than any of the current candidates. If it was still one of the current candidates, I just doubt it would be Bernie because he too would be seen as too polarizing and divisive for what would likely be a dramatically changed political climate. And if one of his own cultists or some other far left type did it, you can say goodbye to his chances immediately. And also Trump might still win, pointing to the left as the source of instability and violence and himself as “law and order,” Nixon 1968 style. He could also still win if it was just some random nut with no clear political affiliation, but I think his chances do take a hit, just somewhat less than if it was explicitly a MAGA nut. If it’s terrorism, Trump might capitalize on that to inflame more anti-Islam sentiment as well.

If Joe dies of old age somehow (whether through health problems or an accident like a Bernie-esque slip in the shower), all jokes aside I think that does also hurt Bernie, as age would indeed become a more critical factor. Perhaps one of the younger candidates, like Beto/Pete, benefits. Warren probably is the oldest candidate who still might have a chance. But the field certainly does become much more open in any case. If an experienced moderate white guy is still desired, Michael Bennet or one of the governors running might even conceivably gain traction.

The same largely applies if Joe dies from a NON-age related freak accident, except Bernie isn’t really hurt and therefore has the chance to move into the frontrunner spot. But I doubt his lead will be as commanding as Joe’s if he does, so the field will still be more open. In all cases the odds of a contested convention probably increase.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

And given the type of social environment we're looking at, WHY he passes on is also critical.

I was assuming a natural death in the OP.

[Roronoa D. Law]

It sounds to me that the OP would be secretly relieved if Biden passes away weeks before the Iowa caucus.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

It sounds to me that the OP would be secretly relieved if Biden passes away weeks before the Iowa caucus.

No, the OP would never wish any of the candidates such an occurrence.
But he is realistic and allows for all realistic things that may happen.

[Dr. MB]

Joe Biden will flame out soon as his sexual harassment allegations keep turning up. However, if you want to be a little more positive, there are things to be hopeful about.

One of those things is that President Trump isn't going to be impeached. After all, after all, every president since Reagan has failed to be impeached. And yet people still wonder how this will end up.

First of all, if Trump were to resign, no one, not even congressional investigators, can remove him; he'd simply be removed from office as soon as possible.

In order to remove Trump, Congress will first need to convict him, which will take a long time. If there are many factors to weigh into a criminal case, there may not be enough evidence for a Senate trial to happen. A Senate trial would be politically unpopular, and Republicans want to protect their "bromance" with the President (and Vice President on that hand). Republicans could also use any impeachment to try to keep Trump in office.

Second, you have to put it this way: there is absolutely no way Trump could lose a presidential election.

[Mr. Smith]

And given the type of social environment we're looking at, WHY he passes on is also critical.

I was assuming a natural death in the OP.

But even dismissing assassination, how and where he die will also be factors.

I mean there's a huge difference between him dying at a rally, or a donor fundraiser in Hollywood, or at his home in Delaware, or at a restaurant in Iowa.

And then, what happens if he ends up going out the same way his own son did? Huge difference between that and a darker version of Bernie's shower fall. And an even huger difference if he discovers he's got one of those "insta-death" black moles.

[MillennialModerate]

I’d be lying if I didn’t the thought has crossed my mind.

Anyway, if Biden wins I think him serving just one term is a guarantee.