Civil War II

[True Democrat]

December 11, 1958

The Indenpendent Reformer Party is officially established.  In a press conference, the leaders of the party, Senator Pat Brown of California and Representative George W. Romney of Michigan, declared that no longer would the Independent Reformers be a loose coalition of polticians with a common interest, but instead a full-fledged party.  Unlike the Democrats and Republicans, the Independent Reformers decided to have their chairman elected.  The election date is set for a common 1957 primary date: March 14, 1957.

December 21, 1958

President Nixon, in an act to defy most Presidents, held his State of the Union address early this year.  Unlike past years, he does not make any specific goals, but instead focuses on "renewing the American dream".  He does make one specific thing though.  Since the vacancy left by Winston's Churchill's death has still not been filled as Senior Delegate of the World Freedom Council, President Nixon, in a surprise nomination, picks Former President Folsom to lead the body.

[MasterJedi]

Nice update, it is short but good so I really can't say anything else about it.

[True Democrat]

January 2, 1959

Because it is now the start of a new "Three-year plan" for the Soviet Union, Chairman Brezhnev has annoucned a new "consolidation program".  For this, he wants to create a so-called grand Soviet state, than encompasses all Communist nations across the world.  Althouogh at first this sounds like all communist nations becoming one, Breazhnev later revises his program.  At the next Worldwide Communist Conference, Breazhnev hopes to present this proposal, which he calls the Shanghai Pact.

January 7, 1959

President Nixon, in a move to counter the USSR and be a strong leader, announces the creation of the Global Treaty Organization, which will include all those nations aligned with the US.

With the creation of these organizations, the world now looks like this:



Shanghai Pact
Global Treaty Organization
Non-aligned

[MasterJedi]

Interesting

[True Democrat]

March 14, 1959

Election is upon the Independent Reform Party.  For the first time, party members will be able to vote not only for their party chairman, but also delegates to the national committee.  For the last couple months, Independent Reformers have been going around registering as many people as possible.

A Gallup poll released on March 4 revealed this:

What party are you registered as?

Democrat: 31%
Independent/Other: 28%
Republican: 24%
Independent Reformer: 17%

A question to all those who answered Independent Reformers was: Are you going to vote in the March 14 Chairmanship election?

Yes: 94%
No: 3%
Don't know: 4%

This shows Independent Reformers to be on of the most active parties in terms of its members.

The party has devised a way to use the electoral college type system as a way to elect the Chairman.  Each state is given anywhere from 1-10 votes, which is also the number of delegates that state will have to the National committee.

Four candidates have declared their candidacy for the Chairmanship:

Joseph P. Kennedy Jr.: Leftist candidate, Representative from Massachusetts, 43 years old

Wendel Willkie: Party founder and establishment candidate, ran for Pres in 1940 as Republican, 67 years old

John G. Schmitz: Rightest candidate, 28 years old, State Senator in California

Jerry Brown: Youth candidate, 20 years old, son of Senator Pat Brown of California, elected State Representative at 18, advocate for 18 to 21 voter rights (32% of Independent Reformers are 18-30)

Most analysts expect something like this:
Willkie: 65%
Kennedy: 15%
Schmitz: 10%
Brown: 5%

On election day, turnout is at 98% for the party members.  The election is fairly close between Willkie and Brown, but Willkie pulls it out:



Willkie: 46.78%, 186 votes
Brown: 31.14%, 50 votes
Kennedy: 14.07%, 40 votes
Schmitz: 8.01%, 0 votes

The Chairman picks his own Vice-Chairman, and seeing Brown's strong showing, Willkie decides to pick him for Vice-Chairman.

[MasterJedi]

Another good, small update.

[DanielX]

in OTL, Willkie died of some stomach ailment in 1944.

Plus, some bits of the map seem implausible. Like a non-communist Mongolia. Also, most of Africa was still colonized in OTL 1959. And Communist Argentina?

[True Democrat]

in OTL, Willkie died of some stomach ailment in 1944.

Plus, some bits of the map seem implausible. Like a non-communist Mongolia. Also, most of Africa was still colonized in OTL 1959. And Communist Argentina?

Almost the whole world is different.  Under the World Freedom Council, most parts of Africa were given independence after World War II.  After a communist uprising in Urugay in 1947, communists governments were "elected" in both Chile and Argentina.  Willkie survived his third heart attack and started the Independent Reform Party.

[True Democrat]

April 15, 1959

Chairman Wendell Willkie begins his first day as the leader of the Independent Reform Party.  He picks April 15 because one of the goals of the party is to make a simpler tax code.  Willkie puts forward an initiative that would shorten the tax code and create a single flat tax.  This is the first bill of its kind and is seen as a revolutionary piece of legislation.  President Nixon comments that he is "open to the idea but must see the specifics".  Democrats in Congress are generally opposed, while Republicans are split.

May 2, 1959

Minority leaders Senator Pat Brown of California and Representative George W. Romney of Michigan of the Independent Reform Party put forward the flat tax initiative.  Also on this date, caucusing in the House and Senate are reformed.  Now that the Independent Reform Party is an actual party, all members are required to caucus with the same party unlike in the past when each member could choose which side to caucus with.  The National Committee has decided, with Chairman Willkie's approval, by a vote of 198-78 to caucus with the Republican party.  However, Willkie calls this only a "temporary alliance until we can form the official majority".  So Congress now stands like this:

House:
Republicans: 176
Democrats: 132
Independent Reformers: 121
Independent: 6

With caucusing:
Republican: 299
Democrat: 136

And the Senate:

Republicans: 45
Democrats: 35
Independent Reformers: 19
Independents: 1

With caucusing:
Republican: 64
Democrat: 36

June 4, 1959

The flat tax initiative comes up for a vote in the House, where the Independent Reformers have nearly 30% of the representatives on their own.  By a fairly large majority it passes:

Republicans:
For: 108
Against: 65
Abstain: 3

Democrats:
For: 17
Against: 111
Abstain: 4

Independent Reformers:
For: 121
Against: 0
Abstain: 0

Independents:
For: 2
Against: 3
Abstain: 1

Total:
For: 248
Against: 179
Abstain: 8

[Colin]

A Kennedy and the far-right John Bircher Schmitz in the same party together? That'll take a lot of work to hold that conglomeration together for more than two elections.

[True Democrat]

A Kennedy and the far-right John Bircher Schmitz in the same party together? That'll take a lot of work to hold that conglomeration together for more than two elections.

Just wait and see

The party was mainly created as a protest party to stop politics as usual in Washington.  I'd put the party overall at centre-right, but Kennedy is closer to the mainstream than Schmitz.

[True Democrat]

August 1, 1959

The flat tax bill finally comes up for a vote in the Senate.  Although the vote is extremely close, it passes by the narrowest of margins:

Republicans:
For: 21
Against: 24

Democrats:
For: 11
Against: 24

Independent Reformers:
For: 18
Against: 1

Independents:
For: 0
Against: 1

Total:
For: 50
Against: 50

With his tiebreaking vote, Vice-President Rockefeller casts it in favor the bill, which heads to the President.  Although President Nixon is expected to sign it, many are not sure what will happen.  (Nixon does not regularely converse with Rockefeller and has not talked with him on issue, as stated by the VP).

August 3, 1959

It is Nixon's last day to sign the bill before he uses the pocket veto.  He holds a public signnig.  Most analysts believe this is a clear indication that he will sign the bill.  However, he takes out his veto stamp during the conference and refuses to sign it, saying "I will continue to fight for the freedom of the poor in the America.  No longer will those with lower income be downtrodden upon".  There is shock across Washington.

October 8, 1959

Although there is a motion to override President Nixon's veto in both houses of Congress.  Althoug majorities are attained, neither the House nor the Senate come close to a two thirds quorom.

December 11, 1959

The National Committee of the Independent Reform Party votes that the party shall caucus with neither party from this point forward.  The reason for this is President Nixon's veto Chairman Willkie agrees to this decision.

January 27, 1960

President Nixon makes his state of the union address.  His main rallying point is for America to "unite under a new banner freedom".  He talks about how politics in Washington has become too divided.  The official response is led by Democratic Representative and former candidate Ronald Reagan of California (who is rumored to be running for President again) and Independent Reformer Minority Leader in the House George Romney of Michigan.  Rommey speaks mainly about the need for a flat tax.

February 15, 1960

Gallup releases a poll on President Nixon's approval:

Approve: 32%
Disapprove: 64%

Rockefeller:

Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 17%

Should a flat tax be enacted?

Yes: 58%
No: 28%

Surprisingly, a high majority of Americans believe a flat tax should in fact be  enacted.  Many analysts believe that this will be a rallying point of the Independent Reformers.  Independent Reformers must also decide whether to run someone for President.

[MasterJedi]

Flat Tax, that's an interesting thing to bring into this TL. I look forward to see what happens now with it.

[Bacon King]

This is looking good.

[True Democrat]

May 11, 1960

To the surprise of many, President Nixon declares that he in fact will run for reelection.  With such low approval numbers, he is assured defeat, unless the Independent Reformers can help to split the Democratic vote.  Vice-President Rockefeller will remain on the ticket.

May 28, 1960

In an expected event, the young Governor of Alabama, George Wallace, has declared his intention to seek the Democratic nomination.  Although this entrance is late in the primaries, he is expected to easily win.  (Reagan has won most of the primaries so far, but he isn't that well liked anymore).

May 29, 1960

The National Committee of the Independent Reform Party has voted on which party to support in the presidential election.  15 voted for the Republican, 28 for the Democrat, and 233 for neither party.  This is a clear indication that the party will run its own candidate.  Later in the day, the committee passed a set of guidelines for nominating a candidate.  A nonbinding nationwide primary date for the party is set for June 25th.

June 3, 1960

Gallup releases its first poll of the election season:

Who would you vote for if the election were held today?
Nixon/Rockefeller: 21%
Wallace/?: 24%
Generic Independent Reformer Candidate: 12%
Other/Undecided: 43%

With such a high number of undecideds, the election is anyone's to take.

[MasterJedi]

Hopefully Nixon will win re-election.

[True Democrat]

June 7, 1960

A tax fraud scandal involving senior members of the Nixon administration and many Republicans in Congress has broken.  Although this scandal has brewing for a couple months, the special prosecuter has finally uncovered some evidence that directly links many Republicans and a few Democrats in an attempt to have a massive tax fraud scandal.

June 9, 1960

Gallup releases a new Nixon approval poll:

Do you approve of President Nixon?
Approve: 19%
Disapprove: 78%

Do you believe President Nixon is directly involved in the recent tax fraud scandal?
Yes: 53%
No: 26%
Don't Know: 21%

President Nixon has vowed to continue his reelection fight.

Also in the poll these questions were included:

Which party do you trust on foreign policy?
Republican: 22%
Democrat: 34%
Independent Reform: 37%
None: 7%

Independent Reformers have recently come out in favor of a more isolationist foreign policy, which is popular after the East Asian War of 1955-1956.

Which party do you trust to manage the economy?
Republican: 25%
Democrat: 43%
Independent Reform: 26%
None: 6%

Although the Independent Reformers were hoping to gain some traction in this area with the flat tax proposal, the Democrats clearly have the lead on this issue.

Which party do you trust the most to handle racial issues?
Republican: 49%
Democrat: 28%
Independent Reform: 20%
None: 3%

The Republicans used to beat the Democrats 75-25 on this issue, now they can't even reach 50%

Which party do you trust the most to clean up Washington?
Republican: 11%
Democrat: 23%
Independent Reform: 52%
None: 14%

This is the Independent Reformers biggest rallying point.  Their challenge to "politics as usual" is a clear plus to their campaign.

[Bacon King]

go Independent Reformers!

[MasterJedi]

Boo Independent Reformers!

[True Democrat]

June 25, 1960

Results of the Independent Reformer Primary are in.  For the nomination, in addition to the 276 members of the National Committee (which are guaranteed to candidates by primary vote), there are 24 at-large delegates, who could vote for anyone.  There three candidates this time, including Joe Kennedy, who ran for the Chairmanship.  The second candidate is Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona, the conservative in the race.  The final candidate is famed Minority Leader George W. Romney.  Romney, noted for his ability to work well with the opposition, is also a Mormon.  Although this might hurt him nationwide, it will surely help him out West.  Even with this, he has still just barely won the primary:

Romney: 41.76%, 115 delegates
Kennedy: 41.54%, 115 delegates
Goldwater: 12.94%, 36 delegates
Others: 3.76%, 10 delegates

With Romney and Kennedy receiving an equal number of delegates it is clear that it will be a long fight in the primary.  The magic number needed is 150 delegates.  Even with all the 24 at-large delegates, neither candidate can win the nomination.  The endorsement of Goldwater is necessary.

July 15, 1960

The Republican convention has just ended.  It was held so early to avoid any public display of infighting against President Nixon (who is still officially registered Independent).  Although there are some early opponents to Nixon, he wins the nomination on the fourth ballot (which is bad for a sitting President).

August 26, 1960

The Democratic convention is now over.  At the convention, Wallace won the nomination surprisingly on the second ballot.  More opposition was expected, but amazingly Wallace kept his Southern-Midwestern coalition together.  For Vice-President, he has chosen fellow Dixiecrat Robert Byrd of West Virginia.

[True Democrat]

September 4, 1960

It is the second day of the Independent Reform Party convention, and Romney has just won the nomination.  He did this by agreeing to put Goldwater on the ticket as Vice-President.  This means Schmitz's 36 delegates will be added to Romney's 115, giving Romney 151 delegates, and one over what he needs for the nomination.  Romney won the nomination on the third ballot.

September 14, 1960

Gallup releases its first full election poll:

Nixon/Rockefeller: 21%
Wallace/Byrd: 28%
Romney/Goldwater: 27%
Other/Undecided: 24%

Although all the candidates are close, President Nixon is falling behind.  Also on this date, Romney has unveiled his "Plan for a Stronger America".  The two main proposals in this plan are the flat tax and an amendment calling for the voting age and age for holding any federal office to be lowered to 18.  The flat tax targets Republican economic conservatives, while the amendment targets the youth vote.

October 23, 1960

In the first presidential debate in history, all three candidates debate each other on a number of issues.  On economic issues, Wallace clearly wins with his vision for an America free from the poor.  On cleaning up Washington, Romney easily wins, while on racial issues Nixon cleans up.  It all comes down to foreign policy.  Although many expect Nixon to be on the defense because of the Korean War, he actually goes on the offensive, mostly because of the Global Treaty Organization.  Nixon is seen as a slight winner in the debate, with Wallace and Romney tieing for second.

November 1, 1960

Gallup releases its final poll:

Nixon/Rockefeller: 28%
Wallace/Byrd: 34%
Romney/Goldwater: 34%
Other/Undecided: 4%

Although Nixon gained from the debate, it is not enough to even come close to taking hte lead.  Either way, it is clear that the House will decide the election, likely meaning either a Nixon or Romney presidency.

November 8, 1960

Election results are in.  In the Northeast, Nixon does fairly well, but in an unexpected results, Romney comes out on top.  In the South, Wallace easily wins every state.  In the Midwest Wallace does very well, but Romney does even better as he is the regional candidate.  Meanwhile in the West, Mormon support, coupled with Goldwater campaigning out there, Romney has again won every state.  Even though the popular vote is close, Romney has actually won the electoral college by a huge margin.



Romney/Goldwater: 35.93%, 368 electoral votes
Wallace/Byrd: 34.54%, 145 electoral votes
Nixon/Rockefeller: 29.19%, 25 electoral votes

Best States:

Romney:
Nebraska: 45.45%
Utah: 43.97%
North Dakota: 43.77%

Wallace:
Alabama: 61.47%
Mississippi: 60.39%
Louisiana: 52.65%

Nixon:
Rhode Island: 40.51%
Massachusetts: 39.81%
Hawaii: 37.39%

[MasterJedi]

Interesting, the Independent Reformers won. For some reason I have a feeling they'll do worse than anybody so far.

[True Democrat]

In the Congressional elections, the Democrats and Independent Reformers gained in both Houses, though less so in the Senate.  Here are the new compositions:

House:
Republicans: 99 (-77)
Democrats: 141 (+9)
Independent Reformers: 192 (+71)
Independents: 3 (-3)

The Republicans, who from 1957-1959 had over three hundred seats have been reduced to under 100 seats.  The party is in ruin.

Senate:
Republicans: 37 (-8)
Democrats: 39 (+4)
Independent Reformers: 22 (+3)
Independents: 2 (+1)

In the Senate, the Republicans have done better, while the Independent Reformers have had a though time gaining ground here.

[MasterJedi]

Republicans lost, though it was expected.

I still feel the Independent Reformers will have a big failure.

[Colin]

Well besides some things being implausible for this period of time I ahve one major quarrel with this timeline and that is the inclusion of Schmitz. Schmitz was, in 1960, 30 years old, ie he was not actually old enough to meet the age requirements set in the Constitution for the Vice Presidency. Also according to Wikipedia, gotta love Wikipedia, in 1960 John Schmitz was serving in the United States Marine Corps as a jet fighter and helocopter pilot with the rank of Lieutenent Colonel. Even if you somehow butterflied this away it still would not make him old enough to serve as Vice President of the United States of America.

So you may want to get another person to fill Schmitz's shoes if you actually want this story to be somewhat in line with key facts.